Whitestone’s Waiver Watch: Winning Time (6/9)

2025 MLB Counter: 40.2% of games played

As we move past the two-fifths mark for the season (40.2% to be exact), let’s think about winning. Not just about winning your fantasy baseball league or the overall NFBC Main Event championship, but about the statistic known as wins. Sure, it’s a stat that gets no respect for lots of reasons. Why? Well, plenty of pitchers have a great game and don’t get the win. And many pitch poorly and still get credit for the W. But is there anything we can learn about how to accumulate them in our fantasy leagues? What type of pitchers actually record these wins more often than others?

Obviously each MLB team is scheduled for 162 games each season. Therefore, in the games of one particular MLB team, we’ll get 162 pitching wins for someone (although that someone is usually not on the Rockies). The way I’ve been keeping track of the season’s progress above, is that each team game is counted once. Therefore, the number of pitching wins is half of that total (right now there have been 1956 games counting each team game once, so 978 pitcher wins have been awarded).

For Starters

Starting pitchers are supposed to be where we get our wins. So I decided to look at — for the entirety of MLB — how many pitcher wins were accumulated compared to games started. Out of the 1,956 team games so far this season, there have been 578 wins credited to the team’s starting pitcher (remember, the maximum possible is 978). So as a percentage you can consider that in each time you as a fantasy manager sends a starter out to the mound (OK, we’re not actually sending them out there because the players rarely listen to us), there is a 39% chance this season that he will leave the game in position for the win after he faces his final batter. Of course, that means that this starting pitcher has completed at least five innings and his team is leading. But how many times does that win end up coming through, you ask? On my fantasy teams, it’s about 10% of the time (just kidding, it just seems like that). Actually, across MLB this season the starting pitcher is awarded the win about 30% of the time. So we have lost 9% of the outcomes (from 39% when he was in position for the win to 30% that he actually gets the win) when the bullpen support proves, um, less than ideal. Now on the positive side, of those 578 wins that do in fact come through, 206 — or 36% — can be considered “cheap” wins — defined as less than six innings or more than three earned runs. That’s a higher total than I imagined. 

So remember when you’re “sending” your starting pitchers out there with a pat on the back — they only have a 30% chance (578 out of 1,956 as shown below) to convert a win. There is instead a 20% chance (400 out of 1,956) that a reliever will get credited with a victory and of course there is only a 50% chance that there is even a win under consideration because the team only wins the game on average 50% of the time (outside of Denver).

Over the years, the Main Event 80% mark — usually cited as the bar needed to compete in the overall championship — has generally been about 90 wins per season (see chart below). Unsurprisingly, the 80% mark in 2025 is looking like it will be the same as last year — 92 wins. The current number of wins recorded to be at the 80% target is 37 as of Monday. We just completed the 12th week of the season, so that means the target for Main Event fantasy teams is roughly 3 wins per week. That doesn’t seem that difficult to do, but bullpens, managers and even our own starting pitchers often seem to conspire against us.

Main Event 80% Wins Credited 2019-2025 YTD

Just Win, Baby

This is a chart of the 24 players who have achieved the most pitching victories through Sunday, along with their ADP in the Main Event in March 2025. The chart shows there are seven pitchers — led by Carlos Rodón, Hunter Brown, Max Fried and Robbie Ray — who have at least seven wins. But considering all 24, just 10 of these players were drafted in the top 100. Six more were drafted 100-199, two 200-299, five 300-399, and then there’s poor Jorge López, who has six victories as a reliever (the only reliever on the list) and was summarily cut from the Washington Nationals this week. These 24 pitchers account for 155 wins through Sunday, which is roughly 16% of the MLB total.

Most Wins So Far, with Main Event ADP

Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Predicted by The Simpsons?

Main Event Most Added Players

The top 10 FAAB acquisitions from Sunday are in the chart below, and Mets second baseman Ronny Mauricio, who was on fire in Coors Field this weekend, was the most added player in the Main Event (in all 57 leagues). Mauricio offers across-the-board contributions but could be particularly helpful in steals. Mauricio had a healthy average winning bid of $122, so there was some heavy competition for his services. The second-most added player was White Sox catcher Kyle Teel, who was called up this week and figures to play regularly. Teel also was heavily sought and ended with an average winning bid of $75. All three of the Detroit hurlers Sawyer, Gipson and Long were the third-most added players (just kidding). But despite his long moniker, Sawyer Gipson-Long should get two starts this week and was added in 55 leagues for an average of $30. Finally, with the Guardians activating David Fry, there was some solid bidding for a catcher that showed last year that he can hit. Fry was added in 53 leagues at an average price of $24. Nevertheless, Jac Caglianone was the big prize (more on him later) — he had the highest average winning bid of $283 out of the top ten — as all the other average winning bids were below $125. 

Top Additions Based on Total FAAB Dollars Spent

We’ve added a new feature — the top 10 acquisitions in the Main Event based on the total FAAB dollars spent. Obviously, this chart can highlight players that attract a higher average winning bid even though they were picked up in fewer leagues. Unsurprisingly, Jac Caglianone was far and away the leader here, attracting $9,920 in total FAAB, with Ronny Mauricio a notable second at $6,960. Not only that, but Main Event owners spent strongly for Kyle Teel ($4,201) and Parker Meadows ($3,108) as well. This week Meadows, David Festa and Bryce Elder were the only players who made this second list without being added in the most leagues, as spending was aggressive for them while they were being added in only 21, 30, and 21 leagues, respectively. The average winning bid was $148 for Meadows, $35 for Festa and $39 for Elder, as they drew significant interest in the leagues where they were available. 

The Wow Bid of the Week: Bags for Cags

So who attracted the highest single bids of Week 12 FAAB? You’d think it had to be Jac Caglianone of the Royals at a top bid of $414, wouldn’t you? But no — Parker Meadows, who was available in just 21 Main Event leagues — drew an eye-popping $490 bid from an intrepid manager (which handily beat the runner up bid of $120). In addition to this top bid, Meadows had a FAAB winning bid breakdown of two bids $200-299, 11 $100-199 and 7 $100. Meadows’ lowest winning bid was $63. Caglianone, on the other hand, easily outshone Meadows in his winning bid distribution. In addition to the top $414 bid (runner up $228), Caglianone had two more above $400; 10 between $300-399; 20 between $200-299; and just two below $200. The lowest winning bid was $157.

In addition to the players already mentioned, there were five other players with average winning bids over $100 that were added in one to three leagues: Alex Bregman ($185; 2 leagues), Austin Wells ($180; 1), Ceddanne Rafaela ($157; 1), Griffin Canning ($154; 3) and Royce Lewis ($141; 1).

FAAB Summary: $637 Spent; $363 Remains

For the average Main Event manager, almost 64% of their FAAB allocation is gone after 12 of our 27 FAAB weeks. In the first 12 FAAB weeks, Main Event managers have recorded 19,866 winning bids (just slightly more than the 19,802 in the first 12 weeks of last year). This means that the average Main Event team has placed about 23 total winning bids this season and spent about $637 of their $1,000 allocation on those 23 players. But while the number of winning bids is roughly the same, spending is now up about 13% over last year’s total of $563. This week the average Main Event winning bid was a sizable $28 (the same as the average winning bid of $28 in this same period last season). The average Main Event manager in total spent a healthy $58 this week on their approximately two winning bids — which will inevitably move lower as resources dwindle. As of June 9, the $637 spent represents about $53 per week, and the $363 remaining leaves Main Event managers with approximately $24 per week to deploy over the final 15 weeks of the season.

The Colosseum: Two Thumbs Up; Three Thumbs Down

Each week during the season, I’ll review the most common Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. In 2024, these pickups were rated as 30 thumbs up (38%), a little worse than in 2023 (44% up).

Our ninth set of Colosseum combatants is listed below. This group is from May 18, and the top hitter addition that week — Will Benson of the Reds — followed up his hot week before being added with some relatively poor stats. He did contribute a few counting stats and a home run, but a .143 batting average didn’t cut it for the emperor. That’s a thumbs down. Matthew Lugo of the Angels provided even less — notably he was sent down in the middle of this three-week period — so he can’t get a positive review either. And what about our third hitter, Dalton Rushing of the Dodgers? Well, the good news was hit a homer, but his .130 average and limited at bats cost him and his fantasy managers. That is another disappointing thumbs down.

On the pitching side, we had three starting pitchers as the major additions. The most added pitcher — Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers — has been pretty helpful with a win, an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.44. That earned him a thumbs up from the emperor. Slade Cecconi of the Guardians did supply a win and 12 strikeouts, but the ERA (4.70) and the WHIP (1.57) was unfortunately enough to knock him back to a Push instead of a thumbs up. Finally, Noah Cameron of the Royals gets us back into the thumbs up column with 19.0 solid innings and pristine ratios (0.95 ERA and 0.89 WHIP). The only worry is what the Royals will do with him as their entire rotation is now healthy again. In any case, it’s another thumbs up from the emperor to close out the week. The final tally is two up, one push, and three down, and makes the cumulative score 20 up; 10 pushes; and 24 down after six weeks (37% thumbs up).

The Most Added Free Agents from 3 Weeks Ago: Hitters 

The Most Added Free Agents from 3 Weeks Ago: Pitchers 

Overall Leaderboard: Addicted to More Than First 

The Main Event leaderboard is starting to get the hint that the first-place team of Brian Ambos and Adam Ronis are seriously addicted to leading this competition. Apparently part of their secret is a rather large cup of coffee each day, and this has resulted in their position in first place for the fourth consecutive week (and the fifth in the last seven weeks). These two fantasy stars are competing under the tag of “the fan addict” and if you even talk to them about second place they start shaking uncontrollably (maybe it’s the coffee?). Can anyone catch them? Well, one Main Event entrant — Todd Hoppe, who was in first place five weeks ago — has remained in a strong second position in the last four weeks. After teaching his players the patented hopping technique, Todd remains the strongest alternative to our dynamic duo. Notably, he is also situated in 22nd place overall as well. The man at the cliff’s edge — Kyle Brinkmann — edged up to third from fourth overall, and Ian Peterson, (who goes by the handle saucy mittenz) is in fourth place after zooming up from 13th last week. Was there something in the sauce perhaps? In fifth is Gary Durbin, who says he is moving to a more urban area of the country, while the sultan (Markus Sultan) is in sixth place as he relayed to us that he will be appearing in the next remake of Aladdin. Joseph Evans (who recommends tiger sharks as pets and has the handle nlsharks) is now in seventh, and Ross (the Iceberg) Berg is bobbing around the Arctic Ocean in eighth. We find Scott Feschuk, who claims he has a pet woodchuck, in ninth overall, and former overall champ Bob Catsiroumpas sits comfortably in 10th. 

The top 34 Main Event entrants will earn a prize from the overall pool this year in addition to any league prizes awarded, and other notables include The Kid Ben Tidd in 11th; jello magnate Dominic Rello in 12th; the dangerous Andrew Geller (Da Gildz) in 15th and 28th; yearly standout Jason Santeiu in 16th; all-around smart guys Dave Petroziello, Ned Donohue and Mike Massotto in 19th, 20th and 21st respectively; and the man from FTN Fantasy who still uses a pager — Michael Mager — in 25th overall.

Even though it’s still early, making the top 34 is a significant accomplishment — and we’ll follow the chase for the Main Event overall crown all season to see who can come out on top.

NFBC Main Event Overall Standings 

2025 Final Table CLQ & Qualifier Standings

The first chart below shows the first annual CLQ Championship League Standings — these are the 15 fantasy managers who qualified last season by finishing with the best combined score in an across-the-board competition and therefore were invited to compete in an auction league in March. If you’re unaware, the CLQ requires fantasy managers to enter one specified team in the Online Championship, the Draft Champions, and the Main Event. These top 15 in the 2024 CLQ qualified for this first-ever auction league with significant prize money at stake built from entry fees from all CLQ entrants (201 fantasy managers entered this competition in 2024). It’s the best of the best in a no-holds-barred 15-team league, so we’ll track it to see who can become the initial Champions League Champ (the Champs Champ?) — and this week even though Michael Brophy is still leading — he now has 111.5 points — his edge over second place Matt Leahy (110.0) has shrunk down to just 1.5 points. Also within easy striking distance are third place Neil Petersen (107.5); fourth place Toby Guevin (104.0); and both Chris Uram and Tim Sansome (98.5), who are tied in fifth place.

Below that, I’m showing here the race for the NFBC CLQ — the Champions League Qualifier for next March. The top 14 in the CLQ qualify for the 2026 Champions auction league (the champion of the 2025 Champions Auction league automatically is invited back to defend their title and will be the 15th competitor). You can see the current 14 leading contenders to make the auction table in 2026 out of the 155 intrepid souls who entered this year. Bob Catsiroumpas has held first place this week, while Brian Edwards moved up to second from third. Aaron Jones, who plays for the Minnesota Vikings in his spare time, sits in third (he was sixth last week) and Kyle Pantalone is shirtless but still in fine shape in fourth overall. David Bone (who wore a skeleton costume last Halloween) is solidly in fifth, and Josh Pettersen has now jumped to sixth from eighth. But all 14 of these fantasy managers have done an excellent job by currently reaching more than 2,900 points and have a leg up to be at the final table next March.

Good luck to all the fantasy managers this week — there’s still 60% of the season to go!

2025 Final Table CLQ 

Champions League Qualifier Standings