Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek and let us know what your thoughts are around our new daily piece.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles
Mets (-118), Orioles (-100)
Total: 9.5 runs
David Peterson (L) vs. Bruce Zimmermann (L)
As new parks come and go in major league baseball, one thing is consistent – Camden Yards is a beautiful park to hit in. In 2021, Camden Yards ranks sixth in park factor and second in home run factor on the year – people love mashing here. Now, couple that with two southpaws who haven’t been at their best this season, and you could have a pile of runs. Peterson was marred by one of the worst starting pitching outings of the year last time out – he recorded a singular out and allowing five runs.
Best bets: With Francisco Lindor heating up and two struggling arms, I love the over here.
Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Braves (+144), Phillies (-172)
Total: 9.5 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. Aaron Nola (R)
When the Braves signed Drew Smyly, they were hoping to get the 2020 version of Smyly – which was a very high-level arm who whiffed a ton of batters (42 strikeouts in 26.1 IP). However, 2021 has been a disaster, and Smyly may be pitching to keep his rotation spot. He sports a 6.29 FIP and his main issue is home runs – he’s allowed 2.70 per nine innings pitched this season. The home run bugaboo was an issue in 2019 as well, and Smyly will continue to put up ugly numbers if it can’t be controlled.
Best bets: Interestingly, these teams essentially sit middle-of-the-pack over the last few weeks in team wOBA (.304 and .302, respectively). Despite the fact that the Phillies are missing several key bets, I like a Phillies F5 line here.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Dodgers (-190), Pirates (+160)
Total: 8.5 runs
Walker Buehler (R) vs. JT Brubaker (R)
One of the best pitching matchups of the evening belongs in Pittsburgh – and no, the Pirates didn’t trade back for Gerrit Cole or Tyler Glasnow. Is there anything sadder than thinking about those pitching prospects being back on this team? At any rate, JT Brubaker has been recently reinstated from the COVID-19 list and he’s quietly been really good this season – over 55.1 innings pitched this year, he’s recorded a 23.6% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate on the year. Meanwhile, Walker Buehler has been his usual bad self.
Best bets: I like the under here – these pitchers are both solid and these offenses collectively rank in the bottom third of baseball in wOBA.
Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays
Nationals (+176), Rays (-210)
Total: 7.5 runs
Jon Lester (L) vs. Tyler Glasnow (R)
I don’t need to wax poetically for too long about the exploits of Tyler Glasnow – or Cyler Glasnow as some refer to him. He’s been excellent. But veteran lefty Jon Lester has not been so good. He’s only whiffed 16.9% of batters and his 4.60 FIP shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Nats offense continues to struggle – over the last two weeks, they are second-worst in major league baseball with a mark of a 67 wRC+. Woof.
Best bets: Pound the Rays here – a same game parlay over at FanDuel is very interesting with the moneyline, F5, and a Glasnow whiff prop.
Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Astros (-120), Red Sox (+102)
Total: 10.0 runs
Framber Valdez (L) vs. Martín Pérez (L)
In the American League, two of the top four teams in terms of run differential are the Astros, sitting at a very nice mark of +69, and the Red Sox, who are solid with a mark of +55. It’s been outstanding offenses, not pitching, that has carried these two teams. However, these two arms have been inspiring. Framber Valdez has returned from hitting the injured list with a finger injury, and Martín Pérez, the veteran lefty, has been really good as well. What’s surprising is the Boston offense has cooled as of late – they rank ninth-worst in baseball in wRC+ over the last weeks (84).
Best bets: Slam the under here. Both of these hurlers are cookin’ right now and I think this line is mispriced.
Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers
Mariners (+100), Tigers (-118)
Total: 8.5 runs
Marco Gonzales (L) vs. Matthew Boyd (L)
Another matchup of two lefties sits in Detroit – but with far less pedigree. Now, to be fair, Marco Gonzales has been one of the league’s more underrated pitchers in baseball over the last few seasons. The ground-ball specialist has been undone by the long ball this season – 1.90 home runs per nine to be exact – and the historic 40% ground-ball pitcher sports a mark that is hovering around 30% this year. However, all that being said, these offenses stink. Both clock in at the bottom of the barrel of the league, AND they whiff a ton – both sport strikeout rates greater than 25.0%, with the Tigers being the worst offenders in the league.
Best bets: I know this is boring, but again, I like the under here. These offenses are poor and fold in the pitcher-friendly park, and runs may be a challenge.
Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins
Rockies (+168), Marlins (-200)
Total: 7.0 runs
Antonio Senzatela (R) vs. Pablo López (R)
Just imagine if the Marlins could actually hit – the damage they could do in the NL East is a bit exciting to envision, even with some league mates that are pretty tough opponents. While their rotation has been recently decimated by injury (both Jordan Yamamoto and Cody Poteet had to leave starts early), Pablo López, who has pushed back from yesterday to today, takes the hill tonight. He only has one win on the season, but he’s been damn good. But the offense sports only a.287 wOBA.
Best bets: 7.0 runs for me is too low to mess with, but with Lopez throwing the heck out of the baseball, I love a Marlins F5 bet.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Brewers (+118), Reds (-138)
Total: 8.5 runs
Adrian Houser (R) vs. Sonny Gray (R)
It certainly hasn’t been a perfect season for Sonny Gray, and the numbers reflect that – but if the last three starts are an indicator, they could be really promising. Over those three starts, spanning 16.2 innings pitched, he’s whiffed 21 strikeouts over that span. Now, swing-and-miss artist Keston Hiura is no longer in the lineup – he’s been demoted again to Nashville – but the Brewers do own a 26.7% strikeout rate over the last two weeks.
Best bets: The over is a bit intriguing given the park, and a Reds F5 bet is also a bit juicy. Cincinnati has only a 19.7% strikeout paired with a .330 wOBA.
San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
Giants (+118), Rangers (-138)
Total: 8.0 runs
Alex Wood (L) vs. Jordan Lyles (R)
After Texas opened their new stadium last year, it was hard to ascertain exactly how the park played after only 30 home games. But, as it’s played out for another 60 games, it ranks extremely pitcher-friendly – it clocks in as the fourth-friendliest pitcher park and also is below average for home runs. That’s great news for Alex Wood, who stayed within the NL West and been very solid this season. The Rangers have been the league’s worst offense recently (61 wRC+, 24.6% strikeout rate).
Best bets: With the struggles of the Rangers offense, I love a Giants moneyline or F5 bet.
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
Yankees (-116), Twins (-102)
Total: 9.5 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Michael Pineda (R)
There’s been a lot of words – both written and in podcast form – spoken about the Yankees. Truly, I am not sure if anyone knows how to make heads or tails of this thing. Sure, it has been decimated by injury – DJ LeMahieu has underperformed, and Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit have missed some time – so that’s got to be part of the issue. But their offensive approach just flat out stinks. They are hitting only .215 with a 29.2% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Horrible.
Best bets: The Twins have been solid at the dish, but the Yankees have been awful. While Jordan Montgomery has been good recently, I like a Twins F5 bet or even a Michael Pineda strikeout prop.
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Blue Jays (+124), White Sox (-146)
Total: 8.0 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Carlos Rodón (L)
Arguably the best pitching matchup of the day lies in the Midwest – two excellent left-handed pitchers matchup. Now, the Chicago White Sox have been unreal against left-handed pitching this season. There’s a reason they have ripped 22 consecutive wins against left-handed pitchers – they have the league’s best marks in terms of wOBA (.357), wRC+ (131) and an .826 OPS. While the Baby Jays have been really good, they haven’t been to that level of performance (.323, 105).
Best bets: Ray has shown some warts lately, and the Sox have just been otherworldly against lefties. Rock a Chicago F5 or moneyline bet with supreme confidence.
Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals
Indians (-168), Cardinals (+148)
Total: 7.5 runs
Shane Bieber (R) vs. Carlos Martínez (R)
It’s amazing how fast the regression monster can hit, and boy did it slam Carlos Martínez hard in his last start. While recording only two outs and absolutely destroying the Cardinal bullpen, Martinez allowed 10 earned runs and base runners. We have been worried about Martinez for a while now – he has the league’s worst strikeout rate among all qualified starters. On the flip side, while Shane Bieber hasn’t been at the same Superman-level whiff rate as last year, a 35.5% rate is still fantastic, and the Cardinals rank 20th in the league in team wOBA.
Best bets: I’m heavily betting on the Indians tonight – find a same game parlay over at FanDuel with all Indians bets.
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
Royals (+140), Angels (-166)
Total: 8.5 runs
Kris Bubic (L) vs. Andrew Heaney (L)
We discussed in this piece yesterday that everything does not come easy for all rookies – development is not a linear regression for all players. While it is refreshing to see the Royals organization aggressively promote young players, Jackson Kowar – who failed to get out of the first inning yesterday – showed the bumps you can hit along the way. Kris Bubic hasn’t exactly hit that struggle bus yet – he’s recorded a 2.12 ERA and 3.67 FIP over 34 innings pitched. Can he maintain a 47.4% ground-ball rate that’s supplemented his outstanding numbers?
Best bets: After playing pitcher-friendly for a while, a move of the fences in a season ago has turned the Angels home stadium to a home run bandbox. So far, it’s the third-easiest park to homer in major league baseball. I like some home run props here.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Oakland Athletics
Diamondbacks (+166), Athletics (-198)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jon Duplantier (R) vs. Chris Bassitt (R)
The Diamondbacks are basically hoping for any arm that can provide them some innings with ace Zac Gallen out, but I don’t think that Jon Duplantier is exactly the answer. I have actually never seen a pitcher with a FIP like his, which sits at 9.37 so far this season, spanning 8.2 innings pitched. He’s also got the deadly combo of a near-flat strikeout-to-walk rate (18.2% to 11.7%).
Best bets: One of the largest moneyline mismatches on the day is no exception here – pound the Oakland bets here.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Cubs (+160), Padres (-190)
Total: 8.0 runs
Zach Davies (R) vs. Dinelson Lamet (R)
I am terrified that nearly every time Dinelson Lamet, takes the mound, his elbow is simply just going to rip off. The right-hander, who has one of the best sliders in the game, received a PRP injection prior to the year and has already recorded two unique injury list stints in 2021. He’s only logged 18 innings over five starts, and while the 26% strikeout rate is nice, it shows that Lamet is not performing at his best. After making strides with this same Padres team last season, Davies has taken major steps backward this year. He has an ugly 13.0% strikeout rate paired with an 11.5% walk rate.
Best bets: The over. I am surprised it’s only eight runs, to be honest. Lamet can provide swings and misses but after the Padres bullpen was needed for four innings yesterday, it will likely be heavily utilized again today.
