The Change-Up: GPP MLB DFS plays for Friday (7/2)

With Major League Baseball back in full swing, daily fantasy baseball comes along with it, and every day we’ll offer “The Change-Up,” a GPP-focused article for DFS on FanDuel and DraftKings. Baseball is a very high-variance sport, and most times you’ll find my plays to tend toward the contrarian, hence the article’s name.

Be sure to check out our  MLB DFS optimizer if you like to do multiple entries fast with our projections and cheat sheet picks. We will also be in Discord Chat almost all of the time, so hit us up with questions and make sure to check it out for updated plays from all the pros. 

Weather note

TB/TOR: This is the riskiest game on the slate as of now. There are likely going to be storms around. I fade weather risks, especially on a big slate, so I am crossing off this game.
NYW/NYY: Rain around, we need an update closer to lock.
STL/COL: Storms around, much like last night. Likely plays, but this is a game to keep an eye on. 
MIL/PIT, HOU/CLE, MIA/ATL: All have low end short delay possibilities.

Stacks

Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Max Stassi, Juan Lagares, Anthony Rendon, Phil Gosselin, David Fletcher): The Angels take on Baltimore Orioles starter Keegan Akin (711.ERA) at home Friday night. The Angels have the fourth-most HRs (35) and the 10th-best AVG at home against lefties this season, despite losing both Mike Trout and Justin Upton. Through Akin’s last four starts (18 innings), he has given up 22 runs (including 6HR) and 11 walks. On the season, he has an 8.8% BB, 20.6% K and 37.5% GB, which on the surface looks decent but he is allowing too many men on base and too much contact, especially over his last four starts. On the season, 10.7% of his fly balls leave the park for a home run. Angels’ international superstar, Shohei Ohtani, leads the MLB in homers (28) with 6 off lefties in his last 77 ABs, hitting .350 ISO/.379 wOBA in that same timeframe. He is going to homer tonight, at least once, and the Los Angeles Angels are going to cover the F5 run line of only 2.5. Los Angeles is the seventh-highest scoring team over the last three days (7 runs per game) and are tied for second-highest offensive output in their last game with 11 runs.   

Kansas City Royals (Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler): J.A. Happ takes the bump for the Minnesota Twins to face the thorn in his side, the Kansas City Royals. As a unit, the Royals have destroyed Happ in the past, hitting 3 HR, 9 hits and 5 ER off him the last time they suited up on June 3. Since then, Happ hasn’t shown much improvement, allowing 6 more homers in his last four starts against teams like the Mariners, Reds and Indians. On the season, he is allowing 1.77 HR/9 and a 12.5% HR/FB. He currently has the worst xFIP (5.51) of his long career as well as his worst season-long ERA (5.83). Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield and Hanser Alberto have combined for 9 homers off him in their combined last 50 ABs.

Oakland Athletics (Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Ramón Laureano, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman, Frank Schwindel: This is a higher risk/higher reward/lower owned stack. The A’s hit lefties well and will see Eduardo Rodríguez (L) starting for the Red Sox on Friday night. E. Rod has a 1.37 HR/9 and 15.2% HR/FB. Essentially every start this season he has given up a handful of runs. In fact, he has only given up 2 or less runs in only one game since 05/07. The A’s have the sixth-best Brls/BBE% in the MLB and ninth-best hard swing%. The fact that E. Rod is coming in around 25% owned on DK, I do not get at all. This is perfect leverage on your DK teams, where you don’t use him to pitch. 

Chalk stack fade: Colorado Rockies: You can’t argue that targeting against a below-average pitcher, Johan Oviedo (5.23 ERA), in Coors could lead to offensive fireworks, but you can argue that you don’t want to play a poor chalky offense that is overpriced like the Rockies are today (and essentially every time they are in Coors). While Oviedo does give up plenty of hits and runs, he limits his fly balls for the most part. In fact, he has only one game this season giving up multiple homers. In his last seven starts, he has only given up three. On a huge Friday slate, I am not playing Colorado who has the most runs scored in their home park (5.78 per game) but the worst runs on the road (2.62 per game). The offense just is not reliable, and very difficult to fit into your FD or DK builds. Another concern is they will likely have to avoid some weather issues and PPD isn’t completely out of the question (although it is unlikely). If you want some Coors exposure, the Cardinals are the way to go. The bats I would land on would be: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O'Neil, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Dylan Carlson. 

Pitchers

• Kyle Gibson: He is coming off a stellar game where he threw his season-high in strikeouts (10) against the Royals. In his last eight starts, he has a1.68 ERA while only allowing 2 or fewer runs. Today, he faces the Seattle Mariners, who are striking out an average of 11.67 times in their last three games. On the season, they are only hitting .218 AVG against righties, with the third lowest at-bats due to not getting on base and not scoring. I am not looking for 35 DK points from Gibson, but if we can get anywhere close to 20, while he is the 12th highest-priced arm on DK, we will be set up nicely to land above the payline. 
• Lance Lynn: On the season Lynn has a 2.06 ERA. His last start was cut short because of rain, but he had allowed no hits and struck out four through four innings. Detroit is striking out the second-most on the season in the MLB (9.86 per game). Like Gibson, we are looking for safety. The last time Lynn faced the Detroit Tigers he only allowed 1ER and struck out six on his way to 23.9 DK points. 
• Logan Gilbert: He would be who I look to as a high-risk salary saver. In 2021, he has a 9.75 K/9, which seems good enough at a $6,600 price tag, although the Rangers don’t strike out a ton. He also has to face ultra-hot Joey Gallo, which isn’t ideal, but if you are trying to fit an Astros stack tonight, he is probably your best path the doing so. Over his last three starts, he has looked much better, as far as strikeouts go. He was on pace for double-digit K’s until his last start got cut short because of rain.

Favorite DraftKings pitchers: Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Logan Gilbert

Favorite on FD: Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson

Fade: Max Scherzer

Core four

• Pitcher: Kyle Gibson (See Above)
• Shohei Ohtani: The Angels’ international superstar leads the MLB in homers (28) with 6 off lefties in his last 77 ABs, hitting .350 ISO/.379 wOBA in that same timeframe.
• Joey Gallo: I just don’t think I can ignore the run he is on, especially at his cheap price on DraftKings ($3,900). He has 7 homers in his last five games and is still under 4K. 
• Salvador Perez: Perez owns J.A. Happ. In his last 14 ABs against him, he has hit 4 homers off him with a .857 ISO/.739 wOBA. In his last 74 ABs, he leads the Royals in homers (9) against any lefty.

Slate edge: Fade the TOR game and the Colorado Rockies. 

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