Ahead of the Count: MLB DFS plays for Friday (7/2)

What’s up, everyone! Welcome, or welcome back to, Ahead of the Count. This article is going to cover my thoughts on the slate, top to bottom. My goal is going to provide you with as much analysis, strategy, and advice as possible on a daily basis to help you guys not only make winning lineups, but learn, develop, and dial in on a process of your own.

As far as content coming from me, I will have my main slate preview article Monday-Friday, as well as my projections. My projections are currently loaded into our brand new FTN optimizer on the site, but make sure you’re checking back and not setting lineups too early as my projections will often change once starting lineups are confirmed.  My player-rater system and ownership projections will also be integrated into the optimizer as well as available here.

Be sure to check out the rest of our FTN MLB DFS content as we have you covered with anything you could look for. Also, please be sure to check for spotty weather and to confirm the starting lineups for each person I write up to ensure they made the starting lineup that day.

Pitchers

Expensive tier

1. Max Scherzer
2. Lance Lynn

Mid-tier

1. Eduardo Rodríguez
2. Zac Gallen

Value tier

1. Logan Gilbert

My Pitcher Rankings

1. Max Scherzer
2. Lance Lynn
3. Eduardo Rodríguez
4. Zac Gallen
5. Logan Gilbert

Note: Sonny Gray is returning from the IL today and is obviously underpriced for the normal floor/ceiling we would get from Sonny, but there is a good chance he will be on a pitch count. If you are willing to risk him reaching 85+ pitches, he is worth a shot as a value option tonight.

Stacks

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Houston Astros
3. St. Louis Cardinals
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Kansas City Royals

Here is the stack and HR raters for today – the HR rater  looks to identify the pitchers most likely to give up power:

Slate strategy

Paying up for Lynn or Max is the way I am leaning toward as being a necessity. I don’t see many pitchers being the kind of caliber play that those two are, however, if looking to save salary you are left with a few good mid-range options, I like to start with Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodríguez, or even Sonny Gray in GPPs.

Bats are the same story as they have been the last few days, with it being a Coors slate you can easily determine where the majority of the ownership is going to be and we have quite a few spots with great hitting environments that will have similar upside. My favorite non-Coors stacks I am building around are LAA, HOU and CIN while KC and MIA are my top two value stacks.

Quick hits

Favorite value hitter – Hunter Dozier
Favorite value pitcher – Eduardo Rodríguez or Sonny Gray (GPP flier)
Favorite one-off hitter – Jesse Winker
Favorite contrarian pitcher – Sonny Gray
Favorite contrarian stack – Cincinnati Reds
Favorite value stack – Miami Marlins
The Bleacher Report (HR calls) – Shohei Ohtani, Adam Duvall, Salvador Perez, Yuli Gurriel