Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (4/17)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

I planned to discuss some of the hitters off to a slow starts, but instead I decided to dig into that either next week or the week after. A few of the hitters I plan to monitor are Gunnar Henderson, Christian Walker, Matt Olson, Jake Burger, Mark Vientos and Jordan Westburg. Oh well look at that, they’re all corner infielders or designated as such. That wasn’t planned. This week, I take you back through the AL offenses.

AL Offense Notes

AL East

Boston Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu has been hitting fourth in the last few games. Abreu and Juan Soto are the only guys with 18% BB, .200 ISO and 80% contact rate.

Alex Bregman went on paternity leave Wednesday. May return Saturday.

Since coming off IL Aug. 16, 2024, Triston Casas has a 31% strikeout rate, .166 ISO and a .389 slugging percentage. In 690 career PAs before his four-month rib injury, those rates for Casas: 25.7% K, .229 ISO, .580 SLG.

New York Yankees

Ben Rice is locked in as the leadoff man vs. RHPs, hit second against a LHP last week. Rice’s 25% barrel rate ranks third behind Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

Don’t forget that we can start Jazz Chisholm Jr. at 2B. Eligibility now: 2B, 3B, OF.

Trent Grisham’s playing time has dwindled, as expected.

The Yankees are the scariest offense to start LH starters against. They own a league-best .255 ISO, 155 wRC+ against lefties. Judge’s ISO vs. LHPs is .722!

Toronto Blue Jays

Will Wagner has been losing PT vs. RHPs to Ernie Clement.

Addison Barger was called up Tuesday. In RF Tuesday and Wednesday.

Daulton Varsho is on a rehab assignment; Barger likely the one demoted.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally homered Wednesday, his first of the season. Last April, Guerrero only hit 3 HR. Perhaps he’s just a slow starter. His career ISO in June/July/August is 50 points higher (.230) than April/May (.180).

Baltimore Orioles

Colton Cowser won’t return until May or June. Hold at your own peril.

Sitting against LHPs: Heston Kjerstad, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday.

Starting against LHPs: Gary Sánchez, Ramón Urías, Ramón Laureano.

The Orioles are expected to face two Reds lefties this weekend (Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott).

Fear not the slow Gunnar Henderson start. Throw an offer to the person who has him.

Tampa Bay Rays

Kameron Misner has been red-hot, hitting sixth against RHPs.

Jonathan Aranda leads the offense in wRC+ (278) against RHPs. He’s the only hitter in the majors with an average over .400 and he leads the majors in wOBA, .521. Aranda is second in EV (96.5 mph) behind Aaron Judge (96.6). Aranda good.

José Caballero has a .747 wOBA/3 SBs vs. LHPs. Rays face two of three lefties this weekend. Hopefully he plays after striking out four times Wednesday. Last time I benched him (last weekend) Caballero hit a grand slam and earned two swipes. C’mon, José, I thought we were cooler than that.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers

Gleyber Torres hits first vs. RHPs and second vs. LHPs.

Javier Báez has been earning consistent PT. He should earn 3B eligibility by Sunday.

Trey Sweeney earned his first start against a lefty on Wednesday. Sweeney has one of the highest GB%’s in baseball at 62%.

Spencer Torkelson crushed his sixth bomb Wednesday. He’s striking out at a 31% clip, but it doesn’t matter as he’s their key, consistent source of production.

Cleveland Guardians

José Ramírez only has 8 RBIs. His batting average with men on base is .188, and he has no hits in 10 PAs with men in scoring position. Last season, Ramírez hit .320 with men on base and .326 in scoring position. Ramírez hits second behind Steven Kwan (.391 OBP) but their eighth and ninth hitters (Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio) are rarely on base. Naylor has a 14.6% walk rate but is hitting .176. Rocchio has a 6% walk rate and a .223 average.

The Guardians’ offense ranks in the bottom third of MLB in runs. Kyle Manzardo has hit .128 since Opening Day, and Lane Thomas has yet to make a meaningful contribution to the offense since joining the team at the 2024 trade deadline.

The Guardians’ offense won’t be able to get by on JRam/Kwan + smoke’n’mirrors all season. They need to trade for an impact bat sooner than later.

Minnesota Twins

Remember Royce Lewis? He has been recovering from a hamstring injury and is now taking batting practice and doing defensive drills. Without setbacks, we might be looking at a return sometime in early to mid-May.

José Miranda was optioned to Triple-A this weekend and Brooks Lee’s activation was the corresponding move. Lee has played in three of four games, starting at 3B.

Edouard Julien has been hitting well and has earned the leadoff spot against RHPs.

Byron Buxton has been locked into the two-hole and playing CF every day. So much for Rocco Baldelli’s preseason comments about getting Buxton frequent rest days.

Willi Castro is the ultimate Swiss Army knife, hitting out of six different batting order spots and has started at four different positions – 2B, 3B, SS and LF. Though Castro’s fantasy value, outside of roster eligibility, appears to be on the decline. He has just one stolen base attempt (in 69 PAs). He had 23 attempts in 2024 and 38 in 2023.

Chicago White Sox

Rookie Chase Meidroth took his career 17.4% minor-league walk rate to the majors last week and has found a home in the White Sox’ everyday lineup. He plays second base against LHPs and shortstop against RHPs, hitting fifth and sixth. Meidroth is a target for deep leagues. He’s not going anywhere.

The White Sox will be promoting Edgar Quero Thursday. No, I’m not from the future. He was hitting .333 with a 17.5% walk rate in the minors and outperforming fellow (higher-upside) prospect, Kyle Teel. Quero might be on the 15-team list, but I’m not sure will move the needle much.

Kansas City Royals

Jonathan India has been horrific. Thankfully, I have a high tolerance for struggling players whom I heavily targeted during draft season. Some might call it bias. His 91-mph average exit velocity and 15% walk rate are career-best marks and there aren’t many hitters on the team who are capable of leadoff duties. I’m sure you’ve noticed the trend of many of the players in new uniforms who are off to slow starts. As long as India doesn’t go on IL, he’ll be fine and earn the profit I promised you.

The offense is struggling badly. After that 8-spot from the Rockies Wednesday, the Royals are now averaging the fewest runs per game in the majors. The likes of Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe and Michael Massey are below-average ballplayers and there are no stud prospects in the waiting. But they could always promote Nick Prato, Tyler Gentry or Nick Loftin for a third time to see if they can shake this group up (it’s not happening). The Royals need a big bat (like Luis Robert Jr.) to wake them up. It can’t be all Bobby Witt Jr. all the time. That formula will lead them straight to fourth place in the AL Central.

AL West

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have been underperforming and are near the bottom in runs per game. At some point, these bats will awaken at the same time, and it’ll be scary. Perhaps around the time Wyatt Langford returns. They are being fueled by their top-five-in-MLB rotation that’s somehow top five despite Kumar Rocker’s rocky road on the mound this season. Jack Leiter will be activated soon and take his spot. The Kumar flambee needs some seasoning.

With Langford on IL and Josh Smith dinged up, Josh Jung earned the opportunity to hit higher in the Rangers’ lineup. Jung hit third against a lefty Tuesday, then hit fifth against a righty Wednesday.

The matchups get a little better in the next two weeks as they’ll face the Athletics seven times in the next two weeks, starting with a series in Sacramento starting April 21. It would be a good time for Joc Pederson’s and Jake Burger’s bats to get going.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have faced mostly right-handed starting pitchers this season and lead the league in homers (27) against them. They have struggled mightily against lefties, which is odd considering the lefty-mashing history of Jorge Soler and a few others.

The Angels should be ecstatic to get Zach Neto back in the lineup. His return will cast Tim Anderson to the bench. Hope he’s ready to start catching up to this power parade.

Kyren Paris has predictably cooled off – homerless in six straight games. He continues to make hard contact and mash fly balls deep to the outfield. He has been locked in as the everyday 2B hitting seventh.

Seattle Mariners

The M’s got hit hard with the recent losses of Victor Robles and Ryan Bliss to the IL. They also demoted one-dimensional outfielder Dominic Canzone and promoted former second-rounder, Ben Williamson, who will serve as the Mariners’ third baseman until further notice. Williamson, who is batting eighth, doesn’t hit for power but does make plus contact and can steal some bases.

Manager Dan Wilson is letting his boys run. They lead the American League in stolen bases, fueled by Randy Arozarena (6) and Julio Rodríguez (4). Cal Raleigh hit his sixth and seventh homers of the season Wednesday.

Sacramento Athletics

Tyler Soderstrom has been mashing — he leads the majors with eight homers. He has reduced his strikeout rate considerably from last season (25% to 18%) and owns a 19.6% barrel rate on 10 barrels. This is not a sell-high situation, unless you’re getting blown away by an offer.

Jacob Wilson’s incredible hit streak came to an end earlier this week, so they finally gave him a day off Wednesday. He will be back Thursday against the White Sox to start a new streak.

Between Brent Rooker earning some work in the outfield and whispers of Soderstrom taking grounders at third base might mean that Nick Kurtz SZN may be upon us. Get ready to empty your wallets and perhaps even take a loan. Just keep in mind that there’s no refund policy if he stinks the bed in his first week in the majors. Baseball is hard, baseball is cyclical, and rookies will struggle. Yes, even the Great Nick Kurtz.

Houston Astros

Heralded rookie Cam Smith may have earned a stay of rotocution with his recent performances, most notably a combo meal (HR + SB) over the weekend against the Angels. Management isn’t going to give Chas McCormick the playing time he wants, and Smith is likely here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Defensive center fielder Jake Meyers has a gruesome 67.6% groundball rate and a .044 ISO, but has been getting on base (.353 OBP, 10% BB) and has stolen six bases in his last nine games.

Isaac Paredes has already marked his next series date with the Angels on his calendar. Most of his 2025 production with his new team came in last weekend’s three-game series where he hit a home run in each of the three games. Now it’s time for Christian Walker to get going.

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.