Bettings
article featured image background
Article preview

Groovin’ with Govier: Fantasy Baseball Roundup (5/16)

MLB Fantasy

Authors

author-image

Michael Govier

Contributor's Page
Share
Contents
Close

Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble and knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!

 

It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Tuesday we kayak the whitewater rapids of fantasy baseball in search of the ultimate prize…a league championship! Now it’s time for me to do my best Cal Raleigh impersonation and perform from both sides of the plate

Kenley Jansen Will Host the Next Meetup of the 400-Save Club

What Better Place Than Here, What Better Time Than Now

Rage Against the Machine is maybe my all-time favorite musical group. However, they are one of the few bands that make me question whether using the lyric above from “Guerilla Radio” aligns with their message. Especially for an endeavor related to fantasy baseball. I want this article to be a helpful source for all fantasy baseball managers while also not being a total bore. Still, I feel a little bad. I mean, how would Zack De La Rocha feel about this? Then again, the band has operated within the mainstream musical realm for over 30 years. I’m confused. 

Anyway, this article is being prepared May 15 for its May 16 release. With six weeks of MLB action in the can, there is no better time than now to look at the hitters who are struggling. This point in the season can be a trying time for the patience of fantasy baseball managers. Specifically in relation to the players who are not producing. In roto leagues these players are digging massive holes in each statistical category for the team they are rostered on. I am playing in 21 leagues (19 FAAB) this year. A few of my teams are certainly reaching a threshold that warrants decisive action if I still hold dreams of contending. With the pressure mounting, I will make judgments about the players below according to one of my favorite offensive stats: wRC+. As a guideline for those unaware, 100 is league average. 

Before I dissect the bottom 30 hitters using wRC+ it’s important to understand how certain stats can be deceiving or not equipped to explain the whole story. Particularly with wRC+. A player’s wRC+ over the course of an entire season can be below average, but that does not mean that the player wasn’t useful over certain periods of the season. In fact, the player can hold different levels of value depending on the format. Take Ryan McMahon for example. McMahon has a career wRC+ of 87. I found that to be a surprise. McMahon has some outstanding hot streaks in his career which this piece does a great job of analyzing. Even if McMahon is a below average offensive player by the end of the season, his ability to carry the load for fantasy teams in H2H leagues over stretches of the season assigns him with a different value in that format depending on league size. McMahon is an ideal example of why wRC+ is a more reliable stat for season-long roto leagues than H2H leagues where the immediacy of winning the weekly matchup holds greater meaning. During certain weeks, McMahon can carry a team to a win in H2H categories or points. This distinction between formats matters greatly when reviewing a player’s performance over the course of an entire season using wRC+. 

With that clarity, here are the current bottom 30 players in wRC+ as of May 15:

A picture containing text, screenshot, number, menu

Description automatically generated

The unfortunate leaders of the bottom 30 are actually previously useful veterans. Poor Jean Segura. The veteran infielder has not been reliable, but he has been a staple in Miami’s lineup all season long. Segura is a 10-year veteran. That’s the only reason he continues to play every day. Unless it’s a practical joke by Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, which would place it very high on the all-time practical joke rankings considering MLB teams supposedly exist to win baseball games. José Abreu has come up numerous times on Twitter with fantasy managers asking what to do with him. He is 36 years old, but these days, there have been examples of excellent hitters like Nelson Cruz or David Ortiz who were able to squeeze out more production at or near age 40. Abreu’s hard hit rate has dropped 16% from last year. Ezequiel Tovar and Joey Wiemer are rookies who get a pass for now as they learn the tricks of the trade.

Poor Myles Straw. Cue the “Myles Straw is an empty suit” siren. Starling Marte is part of a larger problem that seems to be infecting all of the bats on the Mets right now. George Springer, Manny Machado and Alex Bregman all will be just fine by season’s end. Josh Naylor cranked a clutch dong in all three games against the Angels last weekend. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Josh Rojas were two of the three 3B who stole at least 20 bags last year. They are not power-hitting cornermen, obviously, as they have combined for one homer. 2022 flash in the pan Joey Meneses is heating up lately as he has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games, including going 4-5 with 3 doubles and 4 RBIs Monday against the Mets. I traded for MJ Melendez in my OttoNeu league where there is no corner infield spot. I did so because Matt Olson is locked in at 1B while Shohei Ohtani maintains my UT spot. There was no room for Ryan Mountcastle. That’s why I traded Mountcastle for Melendez. The Royals youngster with lots of potential is whiffing a lot right now at 31%. Though I like Melendez, in comparison to fellow catcher Tyler Stephenson, Melendez still has some growing to do. Stephenson is coming into his prime right now which is why I have full confidence in Stephenson that he will end the season with a wRC+ that is absolutely above average. 

Now let’s take a look at the bottom 30 hitters in wRC+ at the same time last year to find out if any players broke out of their slump to start 2022: