Groovin’ with Govier: Fantasy Baseball Roundup (5/16)

Get into the groove as I take you on a stadium tour across the fantasy baseball realm! It is my hope that you will find this article both entertaining and informative. Don’t forget about our stellar season-long fantasy baseball coverage at FTN Fantasy. Save a couple bones with my promo code MJGOVIER when you sign up so you can get access to outstanding pieces like Eric Cross’ Crossed Up. Eric is as humble and knowledgeable as any person in existence. What are you waiting for?!

It is my ultimate goal for you to absorb and apply winning fantasy baseball wisdom from each edition of Groovin’ with Govier. It’s similar to when Neo was offered the blue or the red pill. If you continue reading this, you take the plunge to find out how far my fantasy baseball analysis can take you. That means every Tuesday we kayak the whitewater rapids of fantasy baseball in search of the ultimate prize…a league championship! Now it’s time for me to do my best Cal Raleigh impersonation and perform from both sides of the plate. 

Kenley Jansen Will Host the Next Meetup of the 400-Save Club

What Better Place Than Here, What Better Time Than Now

Rage Against the Machine is maybe my all-time favorite musical group. However, they are one of the few bands that make me question whether using the lyric above from “Guerilla Radio” aligns with their message. Especially for an endeavor related to fantasy baseball. I want this article to be a helpful source for all fantasy baseball managers while also not being a total bore. Still, I feel a little bad. I mean, how would Zack De La Rocha feel about this? Then again, the band has operated within the mainstream musical realm for over 30 years. I’m confused. 

Anyway, this article is being prepared May 15 for its May 16 release. With six weeks of MLB action in the can, there is no better time than now to look at the hitters who are struggling. This point in the season can be a trying time for the patience of fantasy baseball managers. Specifically in relation to the players who are not producing. In roto leagues these players are digging massive holes in each statistical category for the team they are rostered on. I am playing in 21 leagues (19 FAAB) this year. A few of my teams are certainly reaching a threshold that warrants decisive action if I still hold dreams of contending. With the pressure mounting, I will make judgments about the players below according to one of my favorite offensive stats: wRC+. As a guideline for those unaware, 100 is league average. 

Before I dissect the bottom 30 hitters using wRC+ it’s important to understand how certain stats can be deceiving or not equipped to explain the whole story. Particularly with wRC+. A player’s wRC+ over the course of an entire season can be below average, but that does not mean that the player wasn’t useful over certain periods of the season. In fact, the player can hold different levels of value depending on the format. Take Ryan McMahon for example. McMahon has a career wRC+ of 87. I found that to be a surprise. McMahon has some outstanding hot streaks in his career which this piece does a great job of analyzing. Even if McMahon is a below average offensive player by the end of the season, his ability to carry the load for fantasy teams in H2H leagues over stretches of the season assigns him with a different value in that format depending on league size. McMahon is an ideal example of why wRC+ is a more reliable stat for season-long roto leagues than H2H leagues where the immediacy of winning the weekly matchup holds greater meaning. During certain weeks, McMahon can carry a team to a win in H2H categories or points. This distinction between formats matters greatly when reviewing a player’s performance over the course of an entire season using wRC+. 

With that clarity, here are the current bottom 30 players in wRC+ as of May 15:

The unfortunate leaders of the bottom 30 are actually previously useful veterans. Poor Jean Segura. The veteran infielder has not been reliable, but he has been a staple in Miami’s lineup all season long. Segura is a 10-year veteran. That’s the only reason he continues to play every day. Unless it’s a practical joke by Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, which would place it very high on the all-time practical joke rankings considering MLB teams supposedly exist to win baseball games. José Abreu has come up numerous times on Twitter with fantasy managers asking what to do with him. He is 36 years old, but these days, there have been examples of excellent hitters like Nelson Cruz or David Ortiz who were able to squeeze out more production at or near age 40. Abreu’s hard hit rate has dropped 16% from last year. Ezequiel Tovar and Joey Wiemer are rookies who get a pass for now as they learn the tricks of the trade.

Poor Myles Straw. Cue the “Myles Straw is an empty suit” siren. Starling Marte is part of a larger problem that seems to be infecting all of the bats on the Mets right now. George Springer, Manny Machado and Alex Bregman all will be just fine by season’s end. Josh Naylor cranked a clutch dong in all three games against the Angels last weekend. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Josh Rojas were two of the three 3B who stole at least 20 bags last year. They are not power-hitting cornermen, obviously, as they have combined for one homer. 2022 flash in the pan Joey Meneses is heating up lately as he has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games, including going 4-5 with 3 doubles and 4 RBIs Monday against the Mets. I traded for MJ Melendez in my OttoNeu league where there is no corner infield spot. I did so because Matt Olson is locked in at 1B while Shohei Ohtani maintains my UT spot. There was no room for Ryan Mountcastle. That’s why I traded Mountcastle for Melendez. The Royals youngster with lots of potential is whiffing a lot right now at 31%. Though I like Melendez, in comparison to fellow catcher Tyler Stephenson, Melendez still has some growing to do. Stephenson is coming into his prime right now which is why I have full confidence in Stephenson that he will end the season with a wRC+ that is absolutely above average. 

Now let’s take a look at the bottom 30 hitters in wRC+ at the same time last year to find out if any players broke out of their slump to start 2022:

Look who topped the leaderboard one year ago today? The Three Amigos of slow starts are Tony Kemp, Amed Rosario and Jeimer Candelario. All three made both lists. Marcus Semien was able to finish his 25/25 season from last year with a 107 wRC+. Don’t call it a comeback, but Semien definitely made himself useful despite his horrid start. Even when he was aided by his annual Schoopening (shoutout Paul Sporer), Jonathan Schoop still struggled with a final wRC+ of 57. Raimel Tapia was able to improve over the course of 2022 with a 90 wRC+, which is better than either Avisaíl García or Adam Duvall could muster. Alex Verdugo and Amed Rosario both made strides from this point in time a year ago to finish with a 103 wRC+. Tyler O’Neill returned to league average by season’s end with a 101 in concert with 14 dongs and 14 swipes to match. Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo improved his wRC+ a tad to final total of 82 when his season came to a close. Mateo wasn’t useless though, since he stole 35 bases. Sigh … I remember vividly how much damage Javier Báez did to my Main Event team even if he was able to eek out a 90 wRC+ by season’s end. Tony Kemp’s 121 wRC+ from 2021 certainly appears to be very Danny Santana-esque. The player who finished the highest at the close of 2022 was Lourdes Gurriel Jr. with a 114 wRC+.

Most of the names on the list from 2022 were unable to provide a consistent solid output outside of being streamer worthy for a few weeks of the season. Will that be the case this year? First of all, both lists are not similar. There are top-end fantasy assets on this year’s (which are absent from the 2022 list) list like Machado, Springer and Bregman who will almost certainly be above average players by August. In fact, one reinforcement that has become pretty, pretty, pretty certain to me now is that some of these players will absolutely bounce back. Not just the stars on the list either. Based on the profile of this year’s contenders, it appears to me that more of them will crack 100 than last year did. I know that’s a Captain Obvious commentary on my part. Not only did we see bouncebacks from the 2022 list, but baseball’s grind above all other professional sports is defined by streaks. Cold streaks, hot streaks. Hitting streaks. Scoreless inning streaks. Consecutive games played streaks. Get the picture? Busting out of a slump is as common in MLB as injuries to pitchers. The mental resolve required to play professional baseball is unique and unquantifiable.

So which hitters will improve enough to be above average? This exercise has changed my mind on José Abreu. I rarely draft Abreu. I’m not saying that to sound cool or to shock people. It’s always been a combination of draft price and his hitting profile. Yet, he can’t be as bad as he’s been. Abreau has a career wRC+ of 130. Houston is not a bastion of fools either. This doesn’t mean Abreu will rise to his career norm this year, but he will certainly be better going forward. Add Starling Marte to the list with Abreu as well. Marte cracked 130 in each of the last two seasons. Marte and the Mets will break out of the funk they are in eventually. It’s all about when, not if for Starling Marte. Josh Naylor is still just 25 after playing in his first full season of action last year. Naylor held down a 117 wRC+ with 20 dongs and 6 swipes in his breakout year. Naylor has absolutely tried my patience so far this year, but Cleveland is similar to the Mets in that both teams have had a hard time producing consistent offensive numbers. Sometimes it’s simple. Naylor’s 18% K rate is excellent for a power hitting 1B plus he’s hitting the ball harder than he ever has at 45%. Yes, he could hit an endless array of balls really hard into the ground, but he also has raised his launch angle almost 4 degrees this year. By season’s end Naylor will a part of your winning fantasy squad. Lastly, Eugenio Suárez. The Mariner 3B has a career 111 wRC+, which includes three seasons of 130 or better over his last five. Seattle has struggled mightily as a team offensively as well. As GM Jerry Dipoto stated, Seattle has several players dealing with deep slumps. Suarez is a professional hitter who will break free of his slump soon. By August the challenging first six weeks of 2023 will seem like another time and place to these hitters. 

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Matt McLain, SS, Cincinnati Reds

One week ago in this very article, I provided a list of AAA players who were in play to be called up to The Show. Sure, it was not a shock that the Reds made the call. Matt McLain was making magic happen over in Louisville. McLain was given the added gift of debuting at Coors Field where he recorded his first MLB hit. When McLain’s home ballpark is included in his profile, he really feels to me like he could be the most impactful rookie hitter this year. Summertime in the Queen City at Great American Bozo Park will be the fantasy gift that keeps on giving all summer long! Add McLain everywhere. In fact, get as many Reds hitters as you can on your roster!

Jose Miranda, 1B/3B, Minnesota Twins

I am going to need a minute or two alone. Jose Miranda’s lack of production and obvious demotion last week were a disappointing development to say the least. Before the inevitable injured shoulder argument from spring training finds its way to my DMs, remember that Miranda has not been on the IL in MLB or at AAA St. Paul so far either. Unfortunately, Miranda just might not be very good right now. With Alex Kirilloff showing signs of life at the plate, Joey Gallo returning to his 30-homer ways and Royce Lewis getting closer to returning from his ACL tear, Minnesota can afford to let Miranda work on his swing while getting daily plate appearances.

Pete Fairbanks, RP, Tampa Bay Rays

While he was away, Pete Fairbanks watched as Jason Adam absolutely stole the closer role from him. Adam gobbled up 5 saves while only having one outing that didn’t go according to plan. Fairbanks has not given up an ER yet in his 7.2 IP. It stands to reason that Fairbanks will return to the role of closer, but Adam is now more likely to take away opportunities from Fairbanks after Adam’s hot stretch. The Rays are the best team in baseball so far. Saves will be plentiful all season long. Right now, it’s wise to hold onto Adam to see how Kevin Cash plays his closer card going forward. 

Seth Brown, 1B/OF, Oakland Athletics

Seth Brown’s outlook for 2023 has become murky now since he was pulled off of his rehab assignment last weekend because he felt discomfort in his oblique. Add to the mix the growth of Rule 5 youngster Ryan Noda and current MLB superstar Brent Rooker. Even if or when Brown comes back, he may find himself in a new role. Oakland is currently a playground for youngsters to frolic freely among the tulips. Unless there are plenty of IL spots available to stash him, Brown should be ignored until further notice. 

Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs seem to be preparing to welcome Kyle Hendricks back into the fold after he completed his latest rehab start Sunday with 79 pitches. The demotion of Hayden Wesneski down to AAA provides an opportunity for Hendricks to return to the rotation this Friday when the Cubs head to Philly for a weekend series. Remember that even though Hendricks is not flashy, he has used his solid changeup which he has mixed with his other pitches to maintain a career 3.46 ERA (4.07 SIERA). Chicago has a pulse this year. If Hendricks can reclaim his prior consistency, he could be a solid source for wins and ratios.

Jake Burger, 3B, Chicago White Sox

Chicago’s mashing third baseman returned to the active roster last Sunday by cranking a dong against the Astros. This guy’s power is ridiculous. Yoán Moncada has been back since last Friday, but Jake Burger should still see regular playing time at least as the DH and to spell Moncada at third. Seeing Burger or Moncada at 2B seems unlikely. For now. Burger is a must-add in 12-teamers and deeper. If he stays healthy, 30 homers are still in play this year for Burger. 

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

Barring any setbacks, Corey Seager should return to the Texas lineup Tuesday against Atlanta. There was plenty of suspicion Seager would return Monday, but that didn’t happen. My main man Ezequiel Duran has played very well at SS while Seager has been out with his hammy issue. Duran will not lose playing time though, as he is a very versatile player in the field who can play all over. There should be consistent plate appearances for both upon Seager’s return. 

Brandon Williamson, SP, Cincinnati Reds

How should young Brandon Williamson feel about making his MLB debut at Coors Field? Of course he’s excited, but why does it have to be at Coors? Seems a bit harsh. A very bittersweet moment for him I’m sure. I kid of course, but this should not be a streamer to target Tuesday. Williamson came to the Reds along with Justin Dunn and my man Jake Fraley in the big trade that sent Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker to Seattle. Even if this start was not at Coors, Williamson is a big risk. He has been bad at AAA as far as his output is concerned. Lots of walks, dongs and earned runs have come as a result of Williamson’s pitching. Ignore for now. 

Jared Shuster, SP, Atlanta Braves

Recently (May 4), Dylan Dodd got the win in his one-off start for Atlanta against Miami. Now Shuster gets the nod after he opened the season with two less than ideal starts for Atlanta before he was sent down to Gwinnett. Now he is back just as Max Fried hits the IL right after Kyle Wright did the same. With these two big blows to the rotation, Atlanta is going to need Shuster and Dodd most likely going forward. Shuster is a worthy pickup in 12-teamers and deeper. Dodd should also be considered as well. Keep an eye on Dodd updates going forward.

Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinal SS who is the master of the two true outcomes has been heating up over the last week. Yes, I said two true outcomes: home run or strikeout. That’s Paul DeJong all day. He has gone on home run tears in the past. He has also gone ice cold on streaks of whiffing cooling off fans at MLB stadiums all across North America. Ride him while he’s sizzling and then dump him when he goes ice cold. 

Henry Ramos, OF, Cincinnati Reds

The Reds lost OF TJ Friedl to an oblique injury that landed him on the IL. Unfortunate timing really because the Reds are in Colorado for a series before they return home this weekend. Talk about an ideal week for hitters. What’s better than those two ballparks in one week? Ramos has been playing regularly coming into the series at Coors. He didn’t waste the opportunity going 2-4 while scoring 2 runs and stealing a bag. In daily leagues Ramos is definitely worth an add this week in 14-teamers and deeper. 

Jordan Walker, 3B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals showed signs of life last week with their season on the brink already. Jordan Walker, though, has struggled at Memphis since being demoted. Outside of his 3-hit game last Sunday, Walker hasn’t shown the front office in St. Louis that it’s time to bring him back to The Show. Since being demoted in late April, Walker has one homer in AAA. I know production isn’t always everything when a player is analyzed by his team, but it’s still pretty important. I would be stunned if he makes his way back by the end of the month.

Aroldis Chapman, RP, Kansas City Royals

As expected, the Royals are not good. Yet, despite a disappointing outing last Thursday, Aroldis Chapman has found some of his old heat again this year with 23 K’s in 14 IP. There have been reports Chapman is drawing interest from contenders to fill out their bullpen. I think Chapman is a wise speculative add now so when he is officially traded those who add him now will benefit from his likely job as a closer. At the very least he should be useful for ratios, K/9 or holds leagues. 

Dominic Fletcher, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona has a lot of exciting young talent on their current roster and in their pipeline. Dominic Fletcher may have been overlooked over some of the bigger names, but the 25-year-old has shown a history of excellent contact skills in the minor leagues. Fletcher broke out the boomstick against the giants last week. If he develops power to go along with his excellent approach at the plate, Fletcher may end up being the most productive rookie in Arizona this year. Which is really saying something! Add Fletcher in 12-teamers and deeper until he goes cold. 

Gio Urshela, 3B, Los Angeles Angels

Anthony Rendon hit the IL, as he is known for doing. That means Urshela has an open path to consistent playing time. Plus he’s making solid contact. Urshela went 2-5 Monday with 2 RBIs at Baltimore. He’s not showing much power, but if you need a solid floor for your batting average then Urshela is a solid choice.