Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/7)

Spring training is a wild time for fantasy baseball players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops and other big swings.

So as we head toward the start of the 2024 MLB season, we’re going to go around all the news from baseball to analyze what matters for fantasy. We aim to cover notable news, value changes or other valuable nuggets. We’ve got you covered.

2024 Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (3/7)

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser (OF), Cedric Mullins (OF), Albert Suarez (SP), Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS)

The Orioles just do not stop churning out explosive and promising young hitting prospects, and Colton Cowser is this spring’s iteration of Masher Who Cannot Be Stopped Or Even Slowed Down Considerably. Cowser was disappointing in a cup of coffee at the big-league level in 2023, but he packed plenty of pop in AAA to the tune of a .220 ISO over nearly 400 PAs as an appropriately aged for his level 23-year-old. He’s 4-11 thus far to start the spring, but three of the hits have been homers and the people, they have noticed:

The one knock for Cowser has been the lack of obvious PAs, but not only has he given the Orioles a lot to think about, he could see some PAs open up due to injuries in the outfield, which is a perfect segue into… 

Cedric Mullins pulled up lame with what we later were told was a hamstring injury, and while we are not overly concerned about a precautionary exit in an early March game, we are going to want to watch Mullins carefully. He’s been durable in two of his three full MLB seasons but has also been publicly diagnosed with Crohn’s disease, so any injury, no matter how seemingly not a factor, especially in larger muscle groupings and potentially related to fatigue, has to be viewed with an abundance of caution. The Orioles, for now at least, seem unbothered.

Albert Suarez (yes that Albert Suarez) is a big “remembering some guys” guy, and mind you is 34 years old and absolutely all of his listed weight of 235 pounds if not a good bit more, but he looked downright nasty Tuesday. He also, mechanically anyway, kind of looked like Félix Bautista. What if the Orioles can just take any random old guy like Albert Suarez and turn him into Félix Bautista? I mean, that’s scary right? The results speak for themselves, against mainly Phillies regulars (Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm were the first guys he faced) he compiled 7 K’s on 3 innings of work with only 2 hits and no walks or runs allowed, Félix Bautista-type stuff.

Gunnar Henderson is back and already doing Gunnar Henderson things. Turns out he is and always was fine. If you were paying attention here, you knew that would be the case.

Tampa Bay Rays: Shane Baz (An Actual Glass Figurine)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before… Shane Baz is hurt. Actually, it’s even worse, he got hurt while lifting weights to recover from being hurt. However low you were on Shane Baz’s 2024 outlook, you are probably still too high. 

New York Yankees: Spencer Jones (Behemoth), Carlos Rodón (SP)

One of the few athletes in all of baseball who could be compared in stature to the Nationals’ James Wood, Jones has furthered the comparison with his performance this spring, hitting .462 with 5 runs and 4 RBIs to go along with one extremely memorable, gargantuan 470-foot HR. The video quality is awful, but all you need to do is listen to the sound and watch the pitcher’s reaction to know exactly what happened.

All good things have to come to an end though, and Jones was reassigned to minor league camp Tuesday, and we are quite unlikely to hear from him this season as far as getting called up to the show. Keep an eye on him though, big things are coming, in every way imaginable. 6-foot-6, 240-pound 22-year-olds who can steal 40 bags don’t come along often, and when they do, we should pay close attention.

Carlos Rodón continues to make me nervous and did nothing to allay those concerns against the Rays Wednesday, giving up 5 hits and 3 ER (2 HRs allowed) in 3 innings of work. Velo was down. Movement was down. It’s not what you want!

Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (SP)

One thing we all collectively do as humans, starved for new information to process and react to, is that we tend to have overly big reactions to small things more than we have overly small reactions to big things. As such, the base case for any bit of news is likely that we overreact to it. I think that may be what is happening with Kevin Gausman. Keegan Matheson tells us below that “the MRI revealed no structural concern, no injury.” It is pretty normal for a pitcher to not recover in February and March the way they would in June. That’s why starters are “built up” to full workloads, and it’s why you only see 2-3 innings out of SPs in early spring. So while a shoulder injury is not great for any pitcher, Gausman has proven extremely durable, making 30-plus starts in each of the last three seasons. Not every pitching shoulder injury is as severe as the one suffered by Kodai Senga, even if that’s the freshest in our memory. So while I’ll monitor this news and Gausman’s progress through the rest of the spring, the most likely reaction I’ll have to this news is to buy the inevitable dip on Gausman’s ADP.

Boston Red Sox: Lucas Giolito (SP), Jarren Duran (OF)

It’s been a tough stretch for Lucas Giolito, who has not exactly lived up to the promise of his first-round pick pedigree and is now facing a partially torn UCL among other ailments. He is in danger of missing the entire 2024 season. He is obviously off your draft boards now, and his absence opens up the potential for both Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to begin the season in the rotation, which should push up each of their values some.

Jarren Duran now has the Aaron Judge thing where his toe just always hurts, and while it is a little more problematic for Duran as his game is much more dependent on raw speed than Judge is, the risk is also much less because of the drastically lower ADP necessary to pay for Duran’s services. Probably nothing, but something to monitor. Some (a bit sketchy) sources are reporting that he hurt his ankle and not his toe. Need more data points here.

AL Central

Kansas City Royals: Cole Ragans (SP)

A newly minted recipient of the loftiest possible comparison, Cole Ragans will have plenty to do to live up to Jeff Passan’s description of him as a “left-handed Jacob deGrom,” but Ragans for his part has shown out in every way possible. Velocity is up, results are stellar, and health looks like he is all systems go. Despite his less-than-stellar team context (we don’t expect the Royals to offer a ton of run support), Ragans is a buy at his ADP near the century mark in 15-teamers, but his 12-team OC price is hovering around pick 75.

Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter (OF)

The Spring of DeLauter continues and has earned high praise from the most influential of baseball media, Jeff Passan himself, who hints at Chase DeLauter potentially opening an earning day gig in RF.

Detroit Tigers: Andre Lipcius (3B)

The Tigers traded Andre Lipcius to the Dodgers Monday, which isn’t really of note for the Tigers as Lipcius was in no danger of taking MLB PAs from anyone in particular, but it is of note that the Dodgers were interested in him. Lipcius profiles as a high-character, defensively versatile, potent enough bat who can do his job when called upon. The Dodgers excel at finding players like this, and it has as much to do with their success as somehow figuring out how to pay Shohei Ohtani $2 million a year. Could Lipcius be the next Max Muncy, Chris Taylor or James Outman? Only time will tell … but it’s the Dodgers, so probably so.

Chicago White Sox: Michael Soroka (SP)

Remember him? Yeah, Michael Soroka is on the White Sox now, and will be joining a rotation that also features Erick Fedde and Chris Flexen. If anyone ever asks you why the White Sox are supposed to be so bad in 2024, you can use the previous sentence as a pretty strong response. Anyway, Soroka looked decent in his first spring start and if he can stay healthy would be a decent innings eater of a flier at his 530 ADP. 

AL West

Texas Rangers: Evan Carter (OF)

Not to be outdone by all-world prospect Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter put on a show of his own Tuesday, collecting two home runs off of Logan Gilbert, the latter of which was of the grand slam variety. Carter is probably more of a true power hitter whereas Langford is more of an all-around hitter (with speed too), but both are extremely dynamic weapons in what figures to be a very potent Rangers offense.

Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert (SP)

Like George Kirby, Logan Gilbert has now struggled in a spring start, although these struggles came against a more worthy opponent. Gilbert was disappointed but nonchalant about the result, chalking the hard and loud contact up to little more than him not locating as well as he’d like. Velocity and “feel” according to Gilbert seemed fine, and we’ll expect a better result the next time out. I’m not quite in on Gilbert’s ADP of 70 anyway (would like to take him closer to pick 95-100) and so this poor performance may cause him to dip into territory where he’s more palatable. It’s a shame he plays his spring ball in the Cactus League, as I could have run with the headline “What’s Eating Gilbert in the Grapefruit League” otherwise. Alas.

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon (3B), Robert Stephenson (RP)

Oh, would you look at that — Anthony Rendon, finding reasons to not play baseball. I try my best to not “hate” anyone, and I am in awe of just about every professional athlete, but if there is anyone that is really pushing the asymptote (look, this should be an expression even if it isn’t) on both of those fronts, it is Rendon. The guy is just not likable and becomes more so just about every time something happens to or involves him. 

As for Robert Stephenson – better news there! He is apparently throwing bullpens and expected to be good for Opening Day once again. Hopefully, you bought the dip while there was one, and conversely did not invest too heavily in Carlos Estévez.

Oakland A’s: Luis Medina (SP)

Luis Medina has a Grade 2 MCL strain and will not be ready for Opening Day. A sneaky late-round name in DCs, this is obviously a big blow to Medina’s 2024 value. If you’re more of a glass-is-half-full type (and you’d need to be if you’re reading A’s spring training updates) then you could see this as one door closing on Medina, but another door opening for Joe Boyle. Boyle, for his part, has been very good this spring, facing 19 hitters, striking out 5 of them, and not walking anyone. He is also a very large human.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Ronald Acuña (OF)

Did something happen with Ronald Acuña this week? 

Any time Dr. Neal ElAttrache (80-grade name for a Tommy John specialist) is involved, your heart tends to skip a beat, especially when the player is as significant as Acuña (quite literally the best/most impactful player fantasy baseball has ever seen in 2023). The news was as positive as it could be while still being news – Acuña suffered some meniscus irritation, and irritation is the best possible word to be used when describing an injury (and the worst possible word to hear when your wife is describing her feelings). It is not a pull, a tear, a strain or even really an injury, it is just something to monitor because it will probably go away in a few days and by Opening Day we will remember Ronald Acuña injury announcement day as Auld Lang Syne. 

New York Mets: Tylor Megill (SP)

You have to love a pitcher like Tylor Megill, the ultimate Rorschach test for genuine improvement or just another iteration of the same inconsistent and unreliable back-of-the-rotation SP to which we’ve become accustomed. On one hand, yes, he did mow down the Yankees striking out 6 in 3 innings of work, exhibiting old pitches doing new things and new pitches entirely (see clip below). On the other hand, outside of Anthony Volpe (whom he walked, twice), he was mainly facing the Yankees who are likely to start the season in Scranton/Wilkes Barre, not the ones that will be starting the season at 161st Street. So do you believe in Tylor Megill? Do you think he’s a fraud? Do you need more data to assess? No matter what you believe… you can find some evidence to support it! See… Rorschach test!

Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews (OF), Patrick Corbin (SP)

This section of the news update has mainly focused on James Wood, and while we still love him very much, we have to shift our focus just for a minute to Dylan Crews, who started making some noise of his own Wednesday after a slow start to the spring. 2 hits, a HR and a double — each off of Jesús Luzardo — is plenty impressive for Crews. Exit velocities over 100 MPH on each. 

Patrick Corbin is trying out a new cutter and getting some decent results, which is a refreshing result. 21 batters faced and 8 K’s against no walks, as well as no HRs going into his Wednesday start was pretty impressive, and although he did give up his first long ball, he still managed to keep the traffic on the basepaths to a minimum. I’m not falling all over myself to go set a new minimum in a DC, but with his near 700 ADP there’s enough upside that if the cutter movement gains are real, he could regain some semblance of the version of him that got him his current contract.

Miami Marlins: Braxton Garrett (SP), A.J. Puk (SP)

Braxton Garrett is still unlikely to start the season healthy, which is a shame because he was poised to build on something of a breakout 2024. There is no exact timetable for his return. A.J. Puk has stepped up in his absence, and despite being used in a number of roles for both the A’s and Marlins, Puk may once again have a chance at a rotation spot this season and has been excellent so far this spring. Definitely out on Garret’s 200ish ADP and in on Puk certainly at if not a bit ahead of the market at 363.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain (2B)

Your Matt McLain update, this time brought to you by Mike Petraglia:

“Anytime you’re dealing with an oblique issue, strain or soreness, extreme caution is advised. The Reds need their best all-around talent to be on the field. Elly De La Cruz is their most dynamic and flashy player of course. But based on what he showed last year, McLain has the chance to be a future MVP with everything he can bring to the game every day. McLain has been swinging the bat but the Reds will monitor his activity closely once cleared for games. McLain took 70 swings and some ground balls March 1 before facing Lodolo Wednesday. There’s still no target date for Cactus League games but Bell expects it soon if he responds to live BP without a hitch.”

St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (SP)

A bit more concern here for Sonny Gray who exited a start mid-inning, which is a little bit more of a red flag than a scenario like Gausman’s where he just skipped some work between starts. Hamstring injuries are always tricky, and when they happen to 34-year-old workhorse pitchers, they have the potential to be even more so. It is a relatively short-term injury though, early investors in Gray may not be too upset as missing a start against the Dodgers only wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Milwaukee Brewers: Jackson Chourio (OF)

One of the quieter spring debuts of top prospects entering the week, Jackson Chourio turned that around in a big way starting Tuesday, going 3-3 with 2 doubles, and another base knock and run scored while, importantly, leading off Wednesday. His future is just as bright as the James Wood and Wyatt Langford types, even if the results haven’t been quite as immediately loud. No bargains on him at an ADP of 137, but the Langford helium may at least ensure he stays there instead of cracking the top 100 come late March.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jared Jones (SP)

The Pirates have one of the worst non-Rockies MLB rotations in baseball (A’s, White Sox are also strong contenders here) and so it shouldn’t be a difficult one to crack. It sounds as though Jared Jones may have an opportunity to do so here, and at a barely sub-500 ADP I have plenty of interest, even though the adjustment to MLB-caliber hitting will likely come with its share of lumps.

NL West

San Diego Padres: Jackson Merrill (SS/OF)

Jackson Merrill is tracking to be the Padres’ Opening Day CF, which is significant both because that role would allow him to massively outperform his current 447 ADP and would also give him SS/OF MPE after the first couple weeks of the season. While he may not be an extreme power/speed threat like some of the other young stars of the game atop prospect lists, Merrill has a massive opportunity to put up impressive counting stats while being a non-negative in batting average at two positions where depth is key (SS and OF). 

San Francisco Giants: Ismael Munguia (OF)

I would not blame you if you knew nothing about Ismael Munguia until now. I am both a Giants fan of 35ish years and also a prospect geek, and I knew nothing about Ismael Munguia until now. He hasn’t done anything special in the minors and is ancient by prospect standards (25) to have not yet made his MLB debut. However, he is tearing it up (hitting .692 with 2 HRs and 4 SBs… that .692 is a batting average not an OPS) and displaying insane bat-to-ball skills and is competing for PAs in a lineup full of guys who are doing neither. He’s never played above AA or hit double-digit HRs at any level, and yet there’s a path for him to be useful on this Giants team. I’m not sure if that says more about him or the Giants, but he is interesting to keep an eye on!

Los Angeles Dodgers: Steve Garvey (Senatorial Candidate)

OK, so the Dodgers that are still playing baseball haven’t really done anything notable besides getting stolen bases from Shohei Ohtani and grand slams from Freddie Freeman, but that’s not really news, we expect that. 

But, Steve Garvey everyone!

Colorado Rockies: Nolan Jones (OF)

Nolan Jones left Wednesday’s game early with back tightness, and while he said afterward he will be in the lineup again Thursday, Jones is far and away the most relevant fantasy Rockie and so this has been your fantasy-relevant Rockies update.