Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (2/20)

Spring training is a wild time for fantasy baseball players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops and other big swings.

So as we head toward the start of the 2024 MLB season, we’re going to go around all the news from baseball to analyze what matters for fantasy baseball managers. We aim to cover notable news, value changes or other valuable nuggets. 

2024 Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (2/20)

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS), Kyle Bradish (SP), John Means (SP)

Gunnar Henderson, one of the faces of the next great Orioles’ team, is nursing a strained oblique. I do not think this will affect him in 2024, but keep an eye on him for updates. He should be a full go if he gets a week or two of live at-bats!

Pour one out for Kyle Bradish, as the Orioles’ ace was announced to have undergone a PRP injection for a sprained UCL. This will put severe uncertainty regarding Bradish’s availability and durability in 2023, so push him down your boards, likely into the early reserve rounds. 

John Means was reported to have suffered a setback in the playoffs in October and will be handled with kid gloves after coming off Tommy John. Still, knock a round or two off of his price with the uncertainty. This opens the door for Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Cade Povich and/or Chayce McDermott to pick up starts for Baltimore. Wells is the most interesting, followed by Povich and McDermott as excellent late-round 50-round draft-and-hold targets as potential later-season gems. 

Boston Red Sox: Connor Wong (C), Jarren Duran (OF), Tyler O’Neill (OF)

Lots of news is coming out of Boston, and most importantly, it has been announced that Jarren Duran will be the everyday leadoff hitter for Boston. That would significantly improve his value, as he gets even more volume and stolen base opportunity in that role! 

Tyler O’Neill and Connor Wong were both announced to be full-time players for the Red Sox. O’Neill is the real gem here, as he has 30-homer and 15-plus-steal upside, while Wong is a FAAB-league streamer and should only be looked at in draft and hold formats. 

Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero (3B), Shane Baz (SP)

Phenom Junior Caminero is reportedly unlikely to make the Opening Day roster. Caminero skipped over the AAA level last season and could require some seasoning at that level before he comes to the bigs. A big showing in spring training could sway Tampa’s brass. Tampa will need Caminero’s elite power at some point, and he will get a call-up early on.

On the other hand, I am not as optimistic about Shane Baz. He was reported to be with the MLB club sometime in the summer. Before starting a rehab assignment, Baz will begin extended spring training, building up his workload. Tampa will handle him with extreme care since his workload has been as light as a feather. Baz is under team control until 2028, so ensuring that his arm is healthy for the long haul is their focus, and his innings will be managed with excruciating caution. 

New York Yankees: Carlos Rodón (SP)

After a disastrous 2023 campaign, Carlos Rodón will look to make good on his six-year, $162 million contract in 2024. Rodon returned to the drawing board, losing weight, and already looked crisp in camp. He reportedly hit 97 MPH with his fastball in live BP. 

Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah (SP)

Like Rodon, Alek Manoah attacked his training this offseason to slim down, and he reportedly is coming into camp in much better shape. It is hard to explain what made his 2023 campaign a disaster, but losing weight can’t hurt the husky hurler. 

AL Central

Cleveland Guardians: Shane Bieber (SP)

Coming off a down 2023 campaign, Shane Bieber is not only looking healthy, but his fastball velocity is looking strong this year. Bieber has struggled the last two years compared to his peak when his fastball velocity was a few ticks higher, so a bump in velo could help him level up in true talent and make his 177.3 Draft Champions ADP a steal.

Detroit Tigers: Colt Keith (2B/3B)

Colt Keith is now seeing a significant rise in ADP after inking a six-year, $28.64 million extension, as he is projected to join the MLB club on Opening Day and occupy a full-time role at second base. Keith is a top-10 prospect in some outlets. That’s a lofty ranking, but he has the floor and proximity to justify that ranking and the solid hitterish approach. Keith can provide a medium amount of power and a decent batting average, making him a viable pick in all formats moving forward with his cemented playing time outlook. 

Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton (UT)

The oft-injured utility-only Byron Buxton came out Monday with a bold proclamation, stating that he will be stealing 30 bases. Buxton supposedly feels better than before, a note that cannot be taken with much certainty. Buxton can put up loud numbers when healthy, but we cannot rely on him for much more than a flyer pick. Buxton may gain OF eligibility soon, assuming he is healthy and playing the field, but his health grade is an F-.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels: Carlos Estévez (RP), Robert Stephenson (RP)

The Angels brought in competition for Carlos Estévez in the form of Robert Stephenson. Stephenson had an electric campaign in 2023, especially when you drill down to his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, where he pitched 38.1 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 60 strikeouts and eight walks. He was unhittable. The Angels paid Stephenson a bit more than Estévez to be the closer potentially, and GM Perry Minasian said Estévez remains the team’s closer on paper even after the Stephenson signing — but he is leaving the ultimtae decision up to Ron Washington. Based on the pitchers’ recent skills, I prefer Stephenson, so long as the price is reasonable (after pick 250).

Texas Rangers: Corey Seager (SS), Josh Jung (3B), Max Scherzer (SP), José Leclerc (RP), David Robertson (RP)

Corey Seager underwent hernia surgery after extended rest and rehab. I can’t blame him for not surgically repairing the problem immediately; surgery is a last-resort option. Seager also noted that he may not be ready for Opening Day and will not have a normal spring training. That elevates his risk some, in my mind.

Third baseman Josh Jung strained his calf during team activities over the weekend and is slated to miss a few weeks of ramp-up. His cost has dipped with uncertainty, and he has gone after picking up 150 several times. That is a worthy stab at upside, but he could re-injure himself, so be sure to realize he is a risk. 

Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer underwent back surgery this offseason and will not return to the team until midseason. His NFBC Draft Champions ADP is sitting at 269.94, which is too high for a player likely to miss, at best, half of the year. In a FAAB league, he is not worth holding, as operating with a six-player bench restricts your ability to play matchups and find breakout players. If there’s an IL spot in the league, I like Scherzer as a stash play. 

The closer situation in Texas is as clear as mud, with José Leclerc and David Robertson both vying for save chances. Manager Bruce Bochy announced it would be an open competition, which depletes Leclerc’s value and increases Robertson’s appeal. Keep an eye on the news with this one. 

Houston Astros: Justin Verlander (SP), Josh Hader (RP)

In unsurprising news, fantasy managers got a bit of assurance as Josh Hader was announced to be the Astros closer. Ryan Pressly will be a top-notch setup man, as well as Bryan Abreu.

Justin Verlander announced he is starting a little slow and is a ‘couple weeks behind’ his typical schedule. Monday, Verlander was shown throwing with ease and looked to be comfortable. Just monitor this situation. 

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Jarred Kelenic (OF), Reynaldo López (SP)

Formerly elite pedigreed prospect Jarred Kelenic is currently in line for everyday at-bats with the Braves moving forward. Despite horrendous career splits vs. LHP, Kelenic will be tested out as an actual everyday regular due to his potential. Atlanta has team control of Kelenic until 2029, so they may give him a test spin as an everyday regular. This increases his fantasy value a smidge but lowers his batting average projection. 

Flamethrower Reynaldo López signed a three-year, $26 million dollar with the Braves, and he will be stretched out as a starter. That automatically gives the fireballer more intrigue. Pitchers are often cast as starters or relievers. Still, sometimes, guys are more optimally suited for three to four innings instead of a traditional starters’ workload, and perhaps López is one of those guys who can provide more juice in a more prominent role. 

Miami Marlins: Braxton Garrett (SP)

Potentially a nothing-burger of a news blurb, but Braxton Garrett is currently nursing a sore shoulder. He can continue throwing, so there is no need to sound off giant alarm bells. Nothing more is known of the situation but monitor this closely. 

New York Mets: Jeff McNeil (2B/OF), Brett Baty (3B), Harrison Bader (OF)

Jeff McNeil tore his UCL in his non-throwing arm in late September last year and attempted the rest and rehab route to repair it. He is still dealing with that UCL tear but will play through it. That makes me less optimistic he can reach his projections, but I do like him as a value buy late in 15-team leagues, fading him in 12-teamers for more upside.

Former top-end prospect Brett Baty is reportedly looking to tweak his mechanics to make more contact and hit less groundballs. Baty goes very late in drafts and hits the ball with absolute authority, making him a tremendous late-round power buy in the reserve rounds.

Center field will now be Harrison Bader’s place to call home in Citi Field, an interesting development as fantasy managers cast aside Bader due to ineffectiveness and injury concerns. He can steal 25-plus bags over an entire season and should be valued a bit higher than his current NFBC DC ADP of 393.02.

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Jonathan India (2B), Elly De La Cruz (3B/SS), Matt McLain (2B/SS), Hunter Greene (SP)

Reds second baseman Jonathan India has had a busy offseason. Despite swirling trade rumors for the fan favorite, India signed a two-year contract extension and has continued dealing with plantar fasciitis. The Reds plan to deploy India at first base, second base and left field. I imagine he is a part-time player at this juncture.

The only two players for the Reds who have been assured full-time playing time are Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain, their two best up-the-middle players who shore up the defense. That means the rest of their offense will have to battle each other for plate appearances, and there is some potential for each of them to get a slight ding in terms of volume. I have seen situations like this time after time in fantasy baseball, and they usually get resolved by injury. Keep tabs on this. 

St. Louis Cardinals: Tommy Edman (2B/SS/OF)

The slick-fielding Tommy Edman underwent offseason wrist surgery in October that we didn’t know about until January. That is frustrating, and I wish they had disclosed that information sooner. Nevertheless, Edman is no guarantee for Opening Day, but keep track of this moving forward. 

Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick (OF)

To open up jobs in the outfield, the Brewers will test Sal Frelick’s hand at second base this spring training. Frelick played second base in the minors, so this could be a nice win for them, opening up spots and putting Brice Turang on the bench in a third middle infielder role where his bat belongs. 

Chicago Cubs: Christopher Morel (OF)

To find at-bats for Christopher Morel, the Cubs will have him focusing on third base. This seems like a natural fit for him, given the makeup of the roster and Morel’s rocket arm. His actions will undoubtedly be shaky, but he might be able to hold his head above water at the hot corner. 

NL West

San Diego Padres: Xander Bogaerts (SS), Joe Musgrove (SP), Yu Darvish (SP)

In a move that could have been anticipated, Xander Bogaerts will be moved off the shortstop position to second base. Xander’s defense had begun to slip, and Ha-Seong Kim is a better option now.

Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish have been given clean bills of health entering spring training, a tremendous development that needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Injury concerns hover over each of these pitchers; if they look healthy, they could be values.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Geraldo Perdomo (2B/SS)

Geraldo Perdomo has been named the team’s starting shortstop, likely pushing Jordan Lawlar to AAA. This move is unsurprising, as Perdomo is a beloved team leader, and Lawlar could require further seasoning in the upper minor leagues.

San Francisco Giants: Michael Conforto (OF)

Michael Conforto has been named an everyday player. Conforto isn’t worth a look in 12-team formats but is back-end bench depth in a 15-teamer, but I am not particularly attracted to him.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (DH), Walker Buehler (SP), Emmet Sheehan (SP), Evan Phillips (RP)

In a return from Tommy John surgery, Shohei Ohtani is reportedly right on schedule and had live batting practice Monday. This is an excellent development for Ohtani, as he is on pace for Opening Day.

Set to receive the brunt of the saves, Evan Phillips just had his job security as the Dodgers’ closer tick up a little bit.

Last but not least, Walker Buehler’s season debut is currently unknown as the team decides how to map out his limited innings in 2024. The Dodgers will need to factor in some October rotation turns. Buehler will assuredly begin his season in extended spring training, then embark on a minor league rehab assignment for a tuneup, then debut. In the interim, look for Emmet Sheehan to grab a rotation spot and offer fantasy managers immense upside in the process.