Dvoa NFL Articles

NFL DVOA

November 14, 2023

Week 10 DVOA: How Real are the Ravens’ Q4 Problems?

The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

November 7, 2023

Week 9 DVOA: Ravens and Browns Approach Historical Greatness

The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

October 31, 2023

Week 8 DVOA: Ravens Extend First-Place Lead

The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA after this week’s 31-24 victory over the Cardinals. With San Francisco and Kansas City losing this week, the Ravens have now opened a huge lead over the rest of the league, more than 10 percentage points. San Francisco remains second, with Kansas City dropping one spot into […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

October 24, 2023

Week 7 DVOA: Ravens Climb to No. 1 after Week of Upsets

We thought Week 6 was Upset Week in the NFL, but Week 7 really was Upset Week. Last week’s top four teams in DVOA all lost this weekend: San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami. Baltimore’s victory over Detroit was so gigantic that the Ravens leaped up 15 percentage points of DVOA and now hold the […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

October 17, 2023

Week 6 DVOA: Lions Move to No. 2

A week of upsets and near-upsets are probably shaking up power rankings all over the Internet. Over here with DVOA ratings, we don’t have as much of a shakeup. First of all, Week 6 represented just one week out of six, and DVOA stays away from recency bias. Second, the San Francisco 49ers were so […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

October 10, 2023

Week 5 DVOA: 49ers Join the Hunt for Historical Greatness

Like probably every power rating around the Internet, both statistical and subjective, DVOA has the San Francisco 49ers on top after their huge 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The surprise around here instead is the relatively small gap between the unbeaten 49ers and the 3-2 Buffalo Bills. Let’s heap some praise […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

October 3, 2023

Week 4 DVOA: Buffalo Bills Greatest 3-1 Team Ever

Daniel Kelley wrote yesterday about the NFL storylines we would be talking about if Weeks 1-2 had never happened. Well, what if just Week 1 had never happened? If the Buffalo Bills had not lost to the Zach Wilson-led Jets on Monday Night Football, would we be talking about them the way we talked about […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 26, 2023

Week 3 DVOA: Miami Dolphins Break Offensive Records

The Miami Dolphins offense is a steamroller. You will not be surprised to learn that the Dolphins now have the best offensive DVOA we’ve ever measured through three games. But you might be surprised by: Just how much the Dolphins are ahead of every other team in DVOA history; Yet the Dolphins did not have […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 19, 2023

Week 2 DVOA: Dallas Cowboys and the Best Defensive Starts Ever

The Dallas Cowboys are kicking ass and taking names. They started out with a 40-0 blowout against the New York Giants, and they followed up with a dominating 30-10 win over the New York Jets. The Cowboys are historically great on defense and are enjoying the best start of any Cowboys team in the last […]

Aaron Schatz

NFL DVOA

September 12, 2023

Week 1 DVOA: Dominant Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2023 season as the top team in our DVOA projections, surprising a lot of people. Then the Cowboys went out and whuped up on the New York Giants by the score of 40-0. So it’s no surprise that the Cowboys are also No. 1 in the actual DVOA ratings after […]

Aaron Schatz