Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both of the 49ers and four of their own five, the unadjusted ratings have San Francisco narrowly ahead of Kansas City. Not that this will make anybody in the Bay Area feel better.
| DVOA (with opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| SF | 19% | 6% | -11% | 2% |
| KC | 28% | 3% | -21% | 5% |
| VOA (no opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| SF | 5% | 2% | -1% | 2% |
| KC | -9% | -7% | 7% | 5% |
Kansas City had a 39% Post-Game Win Expectancy. In other words, based on how each team played, with averge luck we would expect Kansas City to win the game 39% of the time.
Obviously, the muffed punt recovered by Kansas City in the red zone was the biggest play of the game, and a huge turn of events. Muffed punts are usually recovered by the receiving team. This one was a bit different since it glanced off a player’s leg instead of just being dropped and then picked up again by the return man. Anyway, recovering all those fumbles was huge for Kansas City, but in the end, they had to drive for a touchdown in overtime. They could do it and the 49ers could not, so I do not want to belittle Kansas City’s performance.
Kansas City’s Super Bowl run was a great accomplishment given the regular-season DVOA of their opponents. They took out the teams ranked sixth, third, second, and first in the regular season. Obviously, there were some injuries with Miami and Buffalo in particular, so if you want to argue that the 2007 Giants had a harder road, I’m not going to stop you. But by DVOA of opponents, this was the toughest road to the Super Bowl title ever.
Now let’s look at Quick Reads with the individual numbers:
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 35/46 | 333 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 140 | 130 | 9 | SF |
| Mahomes had 94 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter and overtime. He completed 6-of-7 passes over the middle for 67 yards — where the 49ers were the best defense in the league in the regular season when they had a healthy Dre Greenlaw. Mahomes’ rushing DYAR is lower than you expect because he is charged with the fumble on the botched pitch to Pacheco that lost 12 yards. | |||||||||||
| 2. | Brock Purdy | SF | 23/38 | 255 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 122 | 121 | 1 | KC |
| Purdy had 77 passing DYAR in the fourth quarter and overtime. | |||||||||||
| Running Backs | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Christian McCaffrey | SF | 22 | 80 | 0 | 8/8 | 80 | 1 | 15 | -22 | 37 | KC |
| McCaffrey averaged 4.6 yards per carry on first down, but of course had the costly first-quarter fumble. Both of McCaffrey’s biggest catches came on second down, the 24-yarder in overtime and the 21-yard touchdown from Jauan Jennings. | ||||||||||||
| 2. | Isiah Pacheco | KC | 18 | 59 | 0 | 6/6 | 33 | 0 | -15 | -28 | 13 | SF |
| Pacheco was stuffed twice on third-and-short and averaged just 3.3 yards on first downs. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Jauan Jennings | SF | 4 | 5 | 42 | 10.5 | 1 | 48 | KC |
| This includes 28 passing DYAR for the double pass touchdown Jennings threw to Christian McCaffrey. | |||||||||
| 2. | Travis Kelce | KC | 9 | 10 | 93 | 10.3 | 0 | 39 | SF |
| Kelce had one catch for 1 yard in the first half (-2 DYAR) and then did all his damage in the second half and overtime. | |||||||||
| 3. | Mecole Hardman | KC | 3 | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 1 | 31 | SF |
| Hardman had a 2-yard catch that failed to convert a third down, and I don’t think anyone cares at this point. | |||||||||
| 4. | Justin Watson | KC | 3 | 5 | 54 | 18.0 | 0 | 14 | SF |
| 5. | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 3 | 6 | 49 | 16.3 | 0 | 14 | KC |
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Deebo Samuel | SF | 3 | 11 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | -30 | KC |
| Samuel had a catch rate of just 27% when targeted and just one first-down conversion all game. He also had -6 rushing DYAR on three carries for 8 total yards (-2, 1, and 9). | |||||||||
