NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
The Hottest Teams of Weeks 5-8
NFL teams talk often about peaking heading into the playoffs, but the truth is that they often show their true colors far earlier in the season. Now eight weeks in, we can compare teams’ last four weeks to their first four to get a great sense of who is surging into contention. There are five […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
Week 8 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 8 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Lessons from Interception-Worthy Throws
Our understanding of football is constantly evolving. With growth in analytics spaces, the increasing ubiquity of data literacy, and the continued work of game-charting teams, data-literate NFL fans are finding new ways to process and interpret the game we love. While quarterbacks are by far the most visible position in football, our tools for evaluating […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
All Those Sam Howell Sacks
We need to talk about Sam Howell. But before we do, we need to talk about David Carr. Since 2002, the record for most times sacked in a season has belonged to Carr and the Houston Texans. Behind a legendarily bad expansion line, with a top-pick pedigree and no one worth starting behind him, Carr […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 7 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 7 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The End of the Patriots Dynasty
The New England Patriots spent the 2023 offseason seemingly wiping their hands clean of the nightmare that was 2022. For how bad the season may have felt, an 8-9 record with a No. 15 total DVOA and a Week 18 playoff elimination seemed easy to come back from. The Patriots chalked their offensive woes up […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Route DVOA for Defenses
Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Why Does Something Feel Off in Kansas City?
The world champion Kansas City Chiefs are 5-1. If the season ended today, they would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So why does it feel like they are … kinda meh this year? Most of the high-level data points don’t support that feeling. As we said above, they are sitting pretty in […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
Players Who Should Be Moved at the Trade Deadline
The NFL trade deadline falls on Halloween this year, which is fitting because the dead walk amongst us. Don’t be confused if they’re still technically upright, shuffling their way listlessly through the season. Don’t be alarmed if they cause a contender or two to trip over their lifeless corpses. Don’t even be shocked if you […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 6 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 6 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Detroit Lions Culture Transformation Turns into On-Field Performance
“Culture” is a word that gets thrown around pretty flippantly in NFL circles. Not the idea of “culture,” of course not. Every team strives to have a cohesive locker room full of players sharing the same mindset, abiding by the same code. While most coaches emphasize it to the media and toss it around like […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Rashee Rice an Early Chiefs Surprise in Route DVOA
You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Biggest Revenge Games in DVOA History
For most, revenge games are about the motivation rather than the execution. Sean Payton told USA Today reporter Jarrett Bell that Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL” in 2022, and Hackett naturally circled the Week 5 Jets-Broncos matchup on his calendar. Hackett’s players mobbed and […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
When Will the 49ers Get Their First Loss?
The San Francisco 49ers will lose a game. Eventually. Probably. It doesn’t feel like that at the moment, as the 5-0 49ers were crowned king of all power rankings on Sunday night. What was pegged as a battle of two of the top Super Bowl contenders in the league quickly became a laugher, the latest […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 5 NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 5 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Seahawks: Room for Improvement Despite Hot Start
When it comes to the 2023 Seattle Seahawks, there really shouldn’t be any surprises. They packed enough of those into the 2022 season. Last year’s Seahawks were pretty much a complete unknown. They had just traded their franchise quarterback away, leaving themselves with two backups to duke it out as a succession plan. Seattle started […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
This Year’s Vikings Are Last Year’s Vikings
Through just four weeks of the 2023 season, the Vikings are only one loss shy of their 2022 total. Yet, this version of the Vikings is nearly identical to last season’s team in every way. In 2023, the Vikings have three losses by seven points or less. In 2022, they played nine such games and won […]
Alex Blickle
NFL
DVOA
It’s Time for Bengals to Rest Joe Burrow
CalfWatch 2023 continues, as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals watch the season slowly drain away. Sunday’s 27-3 loss to a Titans team that can best be described as “uninspiring” isn’t quite the nadir of Cincinnati’s season – their -56.8% DVOA in Week 4 was ever-so-slightly higher than their -59.1% mark in Week 1 – […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 4 Picks
Welcome to Week 4 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
The Relationship Between DVOA and Fantasy Football Value
I was tasked with writing something DVOA-related for FTN here, so I thought I’d start off with something, well, simple. What’s the relationship between DVOA and fantasy football value? Using the revolutionary Fantasy Wins Added metric — combined with the even more revolutionary DVOA metric — we can finally answer that question in the best […]
Tyler Loechner
NFL
DVOA
How the Browns Defense is Dominating the NFL
In an NFL season already jam-packed with storylines through three weeks, it can be tough to keep up on all the goings-on around the league. Lost in the Miami Dolphins’ offensive explosion, the complete collapse of the Chicago Bears, and the latest Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce updates, the Cleveland Browns defense is putting on a historic […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
History of the DVOA Bowl
The biggest game of Week 4 features a division battle between the Buffalo Bills, coming off two dominating blowout victories, against the Miami Dolphins, who just put up a ridiculous 70 points on Denver last week. You don’t need advanced stats to tell you that this is a great matchup, but they’ll tell you that […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
C.J. Stroud: Optimism for the Houston Texans
With both Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young missing Week 3 with injuries, all attention in the rookie quarterback race was on C.J. Stroud. Honestly, it felt like a minor miracle that Stroud was healthy, too. Entering last week, Stroud had been sacked 11 times and hit 19 times, tied for most in the league. Stroud […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 3 Picks
Welcome to Week 3 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Defense is Killing the Chargers
If you asked Brandon Staley what’s been holding this Chargers team back in their 0-2 start to the season, there’s a long list of answers he could rattle off. He dropped about a half dozen during his Week 2 postgame press conference: not protecting the passer, allowing deep passes, third-down penalties, inability to run the […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
What If Arizona Doesn’t Completely Suck?
There are a few surprises if you look at this week’s DVOA ratings, but the biggest surprise of the year is probably sitting at No. 18. There you’ll find the Arizona Cardinals, currently the second-highest 0-2 team behind the Minnesota Vikings. The Cardinals were supposed to be completely tanking this season, but they’ve played two […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Do We Believe in Puka Nacua?
On Sunday, Rams rookie receiver Puka Nacua broke a record you had definitely heard about before that afternoon. His 25 receptions through two games are the most ever to start an NFL career, taking the crown from Earl Cooper of the 1980 San Francisco 49ers. He has more catches than Justin Jefferson or Tyreek Hill […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 2 Picks
Welcome to Week 2 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Does Bengals’ Week 1 Collapse Hold Up Historically?
The second week of September is an awkward time for losing teams in the NFL. To some, kicking the season off 0-1 can be easily brushed off. “We’ve got a whole season ahead of us. Burn the tape. Let’s clean it up at practice on Wednesday. We’re on to Week 2.” On the other hand, […]
Cale Clinton
NFL
DVOA
Tyreek Hill and the Fun of On Pace Stats
Week 1 is in the books, and National Jump to Conclusions Week is in full swing. Every year, going from zero games played to one sets off wild speculation and immediate hot takes, forgetting entirely that at this point last season we had ‘learned’ that the big-name additions to the Los Angeles Chargers defense would […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Week 1 Picks
Welcome to Week 1 of our DVOA-based picks. I’m going to do the same thing here that I used to do over at Football Outsiders. I’m picking (almost) every game straight up and against the spread. I’m also doing over-under totals, which were added to the picks last year. This does not make this advice […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Dallas Cowboys Brought the (Rate of Adjusted) Pressure in 2022
This is a guest column from Ajit Kirpekar. Better late than never, let’s look at 2022 Rate of Adjusted Pressure (RAP) numbers. For those unfamiliar, Rate of Adjusted Pressure is an opponent-adjusted metric for measuring a team’s success at generating or avoiding pressure. It’s calculated using a machine learning model that first predicts the probability […]
Aaron Schatz