Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
NFL teams talk often about peaking heading into the playoffs, but the truth is that they often show their true colors far earlier in the season. Now eight weeks in, we can compare teams’ last four weeks to their first four to get a great sense of who is surging into contention.
There are five teams whose performance (measured by DVOA) in the last four weeks is over 30 percentage points better than their performance in the first four:
| Biggest DVOA Improvements from Weeks 1-4 to Weeks 5-8 | |||
| Team | Wk 1-4 | Wk 5-8 | Change |
| PIT | -25.1% | 28.4% | 53.5% |
| CHI | -49.7% | 0.1% | 49.8% |
| CIN | -18.4% | 30.3% | 48.7% |
| DEN | -36.4% | -1.0% | 35.4% |
| JAX | 0.8% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
For Chicago and Denver, this isn’t about being “hot.” It’s simply about not being terrible anymore. Let’s focus on the others, instead, shall we?
Pittsburgh Steelers
Most of the Steelers’ improvement can be credited to their passing offense. They posted negative DVOA performances in three of their first four games but have now rattled off three consecutive positive performances, going from -17.8% in their first four games to 33.0% in their last three (with a bye mixed in). DVOA even liked their passing game against Jacksonville because they were effective on first and second downs despite Jacksonville’s strong defense. They simply didn’t convert enough third downs, which tends to even out throughout the season.
Meanwhile, their rushing game still isn’t helping, but it isn’t sabotaging them like it was early in the year. Defensively, they’ve also been better in the passing game, flipping from slightly below average to slightly above average.
Getting back to the passing game driving their recent success, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the improvement largely coincides with Diontae Johnson’s return, but it’s also worth pointing out that George Pickens was outstanding against the Ravens and Rams.
Cincinnati Bengals
This has to be about Joe Burrow and the health of his calf, right? To a large degree, yes, as their pass offense has gone from -13.5% in the first four to 27.1% in the last three. Sunday’s win over the 49ers included a season-best 66.7% pass performance, easily their best of the year.
However, they’ve also improved across the board defensively. Their pass defense has gone from 15.8% to -15.1% (remember that negative numbers are desired for a defense), close to the improvement made offensively in the passing game, and their run defense has improved around ten percentage points, as well. A surging defense and a healthy Burrow make for a deadly combination.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were the inspiration for this article. After -17.9% and -76.0% overall performances in Weeks 2 and 3, they have posted five consecutive games over 23%. You could easily argue that they’ve been the most consistently good team over the past month.
They have improved in all four facets of the game, with the delta for each shown below:
- Pass Offense: +22.8%
- Run Offense: +6.9%
- Pass Defense: -14.1%
- Run Defense: -9.1%
Again, this improvement is off the heels of some bad football, so is it enough to make them contenders? Only time will tell, but we can see how they stack up in raw performance over the last four weeks.
For what it’s worth, the team at the top of this list at this exact time a year ago? The eventual Super Bowl winning Kansas City Chiefs.
The Best Teams in the NFL from Week 5 to Week 8
| Best Teams in the NFL by DVOA, Weeks 5-8 | |||
| Team | Wk 1-4 | Wk 5-8 | Change |
| BAL | 34.6% | 48.5% | 13.9% |
| JAX | 0.8% | 32.2% | 31.5% |
| CIN | -18.4% | 30.3% | 48.7% |
| PIT | -25.1% | 28.4% | 53.5% |
| KC | 28.2% | 26.6% | -1.5% |
Sure enough, all of Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh make both of these lists. By DVOA, The AFC North is downright terrifying. Aaron Schatz discussed the Ravens at length, so let’s just touch on Kansas City. Tyler Loechner wrote a great piece on how it doesn’t feel like they’re as good this season, and they sure didn’t seem to be against Denver, yet here they still are.
As Tyler pointed out, the difference in this year’s Chiefs is that they’re every bit as good defensively as they are offensively. In fact, their pass offense and pass defense are nearly identical (31.5% last four offensively, -28.9% last four defensively). This week’s game against Denver was particularly surprising considering the fact that their 79% total DVOA performance against the Chargers the week prior was their best of the season. My guess is the Chiefs are less worried internally than we are.
Once again, for what it’s worth, both Philadelphia and Kansas City were top three on this list at this time a season ago. Perhaps there’s something to be said about this being the time of year where the league’s best find their stride. However, we can guarantee this season’s Super Bowl won’t be the same story since all five of our big October improvers are in the AFC.
