Week 7 Quick Reads: Big Weeks for Jackson and Mahomes

Now updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10am EDT.

Lamar Jackson had a dominant performance on Sunday in a 38-6 victory over the Detroit Lions. Many analysts felt it was the best passing performance of his career. But by DYAR, it wasn’t even the best performance of the week. That belonged to Patrick Mahomes, who went over 400 passing yards with four touchdowns against the Chargers later in the day.

I thought it would be fun to look at where these games fall in the careers of these two MVP candidates. First, let’s look at the best Lamar Jackson games by DYAR:

Best Lamar Jackson Games by DYAR
Year	Week	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
2021	5	37/43	442	4	0	2	272	295	-23	IND
2023	7	21/27	357	3	0	0	242	242	1	DET
2019	15	15/23	212	5	0	1	239	194	45	NYJ
2022	2	21/29	318	3	0	0	202	191	11	MIA
2019	12	15/20	169	5	0	2	197	164	33	LAR

The rushing stats are probably what’s interesting here. Jackson had 14 carries for 63 yards in that first game, against the Colts in 2021. How did that work out to -23 DYAR? The answer is that Jackson lost a fumble and had three carries that lost yardage that afternoon. Something similar happened in Sunday’s game, as Jackson has only 1 rushing DYAR becaues of a lost fumble on an aborted play in the second quarter. However, this was probably his second-best career passing performance, after all those yards and touchdowns against the 2021 Colts.

Now let’s take a look at the best Patrick Mahomes performances by DYAR:

Best Patrick Mahomes Games by DYAR
Year	Week	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
2021	DIV	33/44	378	3	0	2	307	270	38	BUF
2020	3	31/42	385	4	0	0	276	259	17	BAL
2022	1	30/39	360	5	0	0	270	280	-10	ARI
2023	7	32/42	424	4	1	1	268	255	13	LAC
2019	DIV	23/35	321	5	0	0	268	257	10	HOU

This one is only fourth on the Mahomes list because of opponent adjustments. It would be No. 1 without them, but the Chargers have not had a strong defense this year. On the other hand, that first game against the 2021 Bills goes from 223 YAR to 307 DYAR when you add in the opponent adjustments.

One more list, as long as we’re at it. Travis Kelce was the top wide receiver or tight end of the week with 179 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. This was Kelce’s second-best game ever by DYAR. His best game, against Houston in the 2019 playoffs, is also the best DYAR game for a tight end ever. Here’s a look at the top five Travis Kelce games by DYAR:

Best Travis Kelce Games by DYAR
Year	Week	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
2019	DIV	10	12	134	13.4	3	88	HOU
2023	7	12	13	179	14.9	1	74	LAC
2015	1	6	6	106	17.7	2	72	HOU
2021	WC	5	7	108	21.6	1	63	PIT
2016	16	11	12	160	14.5	1	62	DEN

The Pittsburgh playoff game includes 16 DYAR for a 2-yard touchdown pass to Byron Pringle on a direct-snap play at the goal line.

Before I bring on the best and worst players of Week 7, I want to make sure you know about the Schatz and Tanier NFL Podcast. Mike Tanier and I do a livestream and podcast every Monday and Thursday. You’ll find it on YouTube at 11am Eastern. Then you can find it afterwards on your favorite podcast app. Make sure you’re tuning in to see us review (Mondays) or preview (Thursdays) the week of NFL games through the lens of advanced analytics and humor.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	32/42	424	4	1	1	268	255	13	LAC
Mahomes had 226 passing DYAR in the first half and only 29 passing DYAR in the second half, even though he had only four fewer pass plays in the second half.
2.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	21/27	357	3	0	0	242	242	1	DET
Jackson had 184 passing DYAR in the first half and only 57 passing DYAR in the second half, although that was because the Ravens shut it down with a huge lead.
3.	Mac Jones	NE	25/30	272	2	0	1	175	170	5	BUF
Jones completed 4 of 5 passes in the red zone for 22 yards and two touchdowns, plus he had a 6-yard DPI (on a pass caught by rookie Demario Douglas; the Pats only took the DPI to get an extra down).
MNF	Kirk Cousins	MIN	35/44	378	2	1	0	163	171	-7	SF
4.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	20/29	204	1	0	0	131	110	21	NO
Lawrence had a strange quarter-by-quarter split with 68 passing DYAR in the first quarter, 0 in the second and third quarter, and then 41 more passing DYAR in the fourth quarter.
5.	Russell Wilson	DEN	20/28	194	1	0	1	103	95	8	GB
Wilson had 78 passing DYAR on third downs, converting 4 of 9 opportunities (5 of 10 if you count a 21-yard DPI to rookie Brandon Johnson).
6.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	19/25	250	0	0	1	102	95	6	TB
Ridder had 127 passing DYAR on first and second down but -32 DYAR on third down. He converted only 2 of 6 opportunities and had a sack with a fumble in the second quarter.
7.	Gardner Minshew	IND	15/23	305	2	1	4	89	62	27	CLE
Minshew benefited from an average of 11.4 yards after the catch with no other quarterback above 9.3 this week.
8.	Tyrod Taylor	NYG	18/29	279	2	0	4	78	74	4	WAS
Taylor had a league-high 11.0-yard average depth of target on Sunday, very slightly ahead of Josh Allen.
9.	Tyson Bagent	CHI	21/29	162	1	0	1	75	62	12	LV
Bagent didn’t throw a single pass over 15 air yards.
10.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	18/25	230	0	0	2	73	66	7	LAR
MNF	Brock Purdy	SF	21/29	272	1	2	1	71	67	4	MIN
11.	Josh Allen	BUF	27/41	265	2	1	1	69	67	2	NE
Allen was worth -26 passing DYAR in the first quarter and 0 DYAR in the second quarter before he earned 93 passing DYAR in the second half of Sunday’s loss. Allen was close to the top of the league with an 11.0-yard average depth of target. (He was 0.02 yards behind Tyrod Taylor.) However, Allen had -42 DYAR on deep passes, completing just 2 of 11 attempts.
12.	Jordan Love	GB	21/31	180	2	1	0	49	45	4	DEN
Love drops from 83 passing YAR to 45 DYAR due to playing the Broncos defense.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Geno Smith	SEA	18/24	219	2	1	2	27	42	-15	ARI
Geno Smith led all quarterbacks this week with 113 DYAR on deep passes (16 or more air yards).
14.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	10/13	75	1	1	0	15	15	0	CHI
15.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	23/31	279	2	1	3	12	3	9	MIA
16.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	15/29	231	1	1	2	8	4	4	PIT
17.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	23/32	216	1	1	3	0	7	-7	PHI
Dolphins receivers only averaged 2.3 average yards after the catch this week, the lowest figure in the league. Tagovailoa had six passes to running backs and completed three of them for just 10 yards, plus an interception.
18.	P.J. Walker	CLE	15/31	178	0	1	2	-2	9	-11	IND
19.	Derek Carr	NO	33/55	301	1	1	1	-9	-5	-4	JAX
20.	Justin Herbert	LAC	17/30	259	1	2	5	-23	-25	2	KC
Herbert completed just 1 of 6 passes up the middle with a 7-yard touchdown to Gerald Everett but also an interception on the Chiefs’ 6-yard line.
21.	Jared Goff	DET	34/53	284	0	1	5	-23	-23	0	BAL
Goff improves from -91 passing DYAR to -23 DYAR due to playing the Ravens defense.
22.	Baker Mayfield	TB	27/42	275	1	1	3	-23	-38	14	ATL
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Joshua Dobbs	ARI	19/33	146	0	0	4	-47	-69	22	SEA
Dobbs had six carries for 43 yards, including a 25-yard touchdown on first-and-goal from the 25 after a 15-yard penalty for left tackle D.J. Humphries getting thrown out of the game for contact with an official. Unfortunately, Dobbs had a poor game as a passer, including that he converted just 2 of 12 opportunities on third down (with two sacks).
24.	Brian Hoyer	LV	17/32	129	0	2	1	-96	-96	0	CHI
Hoyer is currently third worst for the year in DYAR on passes to running backs, even though he has thrown only five of them. Four were this week to Josh Jacobs, including an interception.
25.	Sam Howell	WAS	23/42	249	0	1	6	-123	-127	4	NYG
The 2002 Houston Texans hold the record for the worst adjusted sack rate by an offense at 15.0%. The Washington Commanders are currently at 14.6%.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	James Cook	BUF	13	56	0	3/3	46	1	66	29	37	NE
Cook carried the ball on three different second-and-4s and converted all three of them. He had only one carry that lost yardage or was stuffed for no gain. He also converted two third downs with receptions, including a third-and-8.
2.	D’Onta Foreman	CHI	16	89	2	3/5	31	1	58	33	25	LV
Foreman loses 15 DYAR due to opponent adjustments against a poor Las Vegas run defense, but still ends up first in rushing value this week. Foreman gained at least 2 yards on 14 of his 16 carries. His three receptions included two first downs and a touchdown.
3.	Gus Edwards	BAL	14	64	1	1/1	80	0	57	31	27	DET

4.	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	21	59	0	3/3	53	0	48	29	20	TB
Allgeier goes from -7 YAR to 28 DYAR with opponent adjustments against the Tampa Bay run defense. He converted 4 of 5 opportunities on third-and-short (1-2 yards to go).
5.	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	11	68	1	9/10	58	0	47	33	14	BAL
Gibbs did not have a carry that gained less than 2 yards and converted both of his carries on third down. His receiving numbers have a lot of failed completions, with five catches on first-and-10 that gained between 0 and 3 yards. But he also had catches for 19 and 21 yards.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	D’Onta Foreman	CHI	16	89	2	3/5	31	1	58	33	25	LV
2.	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	11	68	1	9/10	58	0	47	33	14	BAL
3.	Gus Edwards	BAL	14	64	1	1/1	80	0	57	31	27	DET
4.	James Cook	BUF	13	56	0	3/3	46	1	66	29	37	NE
5.	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	21	59	0	3/3	53	0	48	29	20	TB

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Kenneth Walker

SEA

105

2/3

-31

-20

-11

ARI

Walker goes from -1 YAR to -20 DYAR against the Arizona defense. Walker was stuffed or lost yardage on five carries including two at the goal line. One of his two receptions gained 0 yards, while the other gained 6 yards on second-and-7.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)