Week 10 Quick Reads: Another Impressive C.J. Stroud Joint

Updated Tuesday morning with Monday Night Football.

None of this week’s best or worst players really stood out historically so I thought it would be a good week to take stock of the whole season. Which players have seen the biggest opponent adjustments so far? Remember that opponent adjustments aren’t based just on how good the opposing defense is, but also how good the opposing defense is on specific downs against the run and pass.

Quarterbacks

QBs with Biggest Positive Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
C.J. Stroud	HOU	1036	1	858	4	+177
Gardner Minshew	IND	263	16	101	20	+162
Ryan Tannehill	TEN	63	23	-55	26	+118
Brock Purdy	SF	986	2	871	3	+115
Jared Goff	DET	956	4	844	5	+112

C. J. Stroud was the No. 1 quarterback of Week 10 (see below) and is now the No. 1 quarterback of the entire season, pending what Josh Allen does on Monday Night Football. He’s on pace to have the best rookie quarterback season in history. One of the reasons is that you have to consider the schedule of opponents he has played. The issue is less that Stroud has played all the hardest defenses and less that he hasn’t played many easy ones. Stroud has played only one game against a team ranked in the bottom half of the league for pass defense DVOA (Atlanta, which is 28th, in Week 5). Things will get easier with games against Arizona, Denver, and Tennessee in the next few weeks.

Gardner Minshew has also had it tough with recent games against the Browns, Jaguars, and Saints.

QBs with Biggest Negative Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
Sam Howell	WAS	-238	29	64	22	-302
Baker Mayfield	TB	324	14	509	10	-185
Patrick Mahomes	KC	703	6	837	6	-134
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	890	5	997	1	-107
Bryce Young	CAR	-537	31	-433	31	-104

Sam Howell‘s adjustment is a little bit fluky because he played Buffalo back when the Bills had their defense healthy in Week 3. Nonetheless, Howell has not played a single game this year against a team ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense DVOA. The Patriots and Bills were the toughest opponents, currently ranked 19th and 20th.

Baker Mayfield has not played a pass defense ranked in the top eight and he’s only played two pass defenses ranked in the top half of the league, Minnesota and New Orleans.

There’s less to say about other positions, where the opponent adjustments are a good deal smaller. Here’s a look.

Running Backs

RBs (Rushing) with Biggest Positive Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
Alvin Kamara	NO	102	8	37	21	+65
D’Andre Swift	PHI	149	5	98	9	+51
Rachaad White	TB	30	22	-21	32	+51
Tyler Allgeier	ATL	39	21	-8	30	+47
Zach Moss	IND	159	3	117	5	+42

Kamara stands out in particular because he missed the first three games of the season. Since his return, he has played six games against teams ranked 13th or higher in run defense DVOA, with Indianapolis (24th) as the exception.

RBs (Rushing) with Biggest Negative Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
Kenneth Walker	SEA	-5	29	51	20	-56
D’Onta Foreman	CHI	44	20	79	13	-35
Devin Singletary	HOU	-19	32	15	26	-35
Travis Etienne	JAX	17	25	51	19	-34
Kyren Williams	LAR	114	7	148	4	-33

Singletary stands out because he took most of the carries with Dameon Pierce out against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 29th in run defense DVOA.

Wide Receivers

WRs with Biggest Positive Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
Marquise Brown	ARI	38	40	8	52	+30
Jerry Jeudy	DEN	13	49	-16	57	+29
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	280	3	253	4	+27
Michael Pittman	IND	-11	55	-33	58	+23
Josh Downs	IND	114	22	92	27	+22

WRs with Biggest Negative Def Adjust, Weeks 1-10 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	Rank	YAR	Rank	Dif
Drake London	ATL	38	41	80	32	-42
Mike Evans	TB	146	14	185	11	-39
Adam Thielen	CAR	123	17	151	13	-28
Curtis Samuel	WAS	7	52	24	46	-18
Michael Thomas	NO	7	51	25	45	-17

And here are the best and worst players of Week 10 by DYAR:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Dak Prescott	DAL	26/35	404	4	1	0	199	183	16	NYG
Prescott took a hit of 23 passing DYAR for playing the Giants defense. He had -56 passing DYAR in the first quarter and then 239 passing DYAR in the second and third quarters before sitting out the final quarter. Prescott was No. 1 this week despite converting only 2 of 6 opportunities on third down with an interception.
2.	Jared Goff	DET	23/33	333	2	0	0	178	178	0	LAC
Goff was 9-for-12 with 131 yards and two touchdowns against the blitz. He led all quarterbacks with 118 DYAR on passes up the middle.
3.	Justin Herbert	LAC	27/40	323	4	1	0	155	164	-8	DET
Herbert led all starting quarterbacks with a 60% success rate this week. Herbert had only 23 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then 141 passing DYAR in the second half.
4.	Brock Purdy	SF	20/26	296	3	0	2	153	153	0	JAX
5.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	23/39	356	1	1	1	134	134	-1	CIN
Stroud had 192 passing DYAR on first and second down but -57 DYAR on third down. He had just four conversions on 13 third-down attempts with a sack-fumble and an interception.
6.	Joshua Dobbs	MIN	23/34	268	1	0	1	133	127	6	NO
Dobbs had 129 passing DYAR in the first half of this game but -2 DYAR in the second half, dropping from 10.0 net yards per pass to 3.3 net yards per pass.
MNF	Russell Wilson	DEN	24/29	193	2	0	4	94	86	8	BUF
7.	Geno Smith	SEA	31/46	369	2	0	1	93	88	5	WAS
Smith was one of many quarterbacks with a big first half/second half split this week: -13 passing DYAR in the first half, 101 passing DYAR in the second half. He drops from 147 passing DYAR to 88 passing YAR due to the quality of the Washington pass defense.
8.	Baker Mayfield	TB	18/29	278	2	1	3	78	88	-10	TEN
Mayfield drops from 123 passing DYAR to 88 passing DYAR because of the Tennessee pass defense.
9.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	13/23	223	1	2	3	62	55	7	CLE
Jackson gets a monster 78 DYAR boost for playing against the Cleveland Browns defense. He had 13.6 net yards per pass on first downs but only 1.8 net yards per pass on second downs.
10.	Tyson Bagent	CHI	20/33	162	0	0	0	56	64	-8	CAR
Bagent gets a bonus of 28 passing DYAR for the quality of the Carolina pass defense, which ranks a surprising third in the NFL on third and fourth downs this season.
11.	Sam Howell	WAS	29/44	312	3	0	3	40	46	-6	SEA
Howell had -48 passing DYAR on first downs with just 3.0 net yards per pass.
12.	Deshaun Watson	CLE	20/34	213	1	1	4	34	25	8	BAL
Watson scrambled seven times for 38 yards. One was 16 yards but four carries went for just 2 or 3 yards. Watson had -72 passing DYAR in the first half of this game (3.4 net yards per pass) and then 98 passing DYAR in the second half (8.2 net yards per pass).
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	4/6	39	0	0	0	33	27	6	ARI
Includes a 32-yard DPI gain by Drake London.
14.	Kyler Murray	ARI	19/32	249	0	1	2	26	3	23	ATL
Murray gained 35 yards on five carries with a 6-yard touchdown and a very important 13-yard scramble in the fourth quarter with the Cardinals losing 23-22. Murray didn’t convert a single one of his six third-down dropbacks, with two completions that fell short of the needed yardage, three incomplete passes, and a sack.
15.	Jordan Love	GB	21/39	289	2	2	1	19	17	2	PIT
Jordan Love had -104 passing DYAR in the red zone. He threw an 8-yard touchdown to Romeo Doubs but otherwise completed 2 of 7 passes for 6 yards with two interceptions.
16.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	14/23	126	0	0	1	6	7	-1	GB
17.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	16/27	153	1	1	3	-3	6	-9	NYJ
18.	Gardner Minshew	IND	18/28	194	0	1	0	-7	3	-10	NE
Minshew had only six pass attempts on first down, completing three of them for 36 yards.
19.	Derek Carr	NO	13/18	110	0	0	2	-9	-12	3	MIN
20.	Cooper Rush	DAL	7/9	68	0	1	0	-13	-17	5	NYG
21.	Mac Jones	NE	15/20	170	0	1	5	-19	-29	9	IND
Jones benefited from an average of 9.0 yards after the catch, the highest of any quarterback this week. He went 0-for-3 in the red zone with a pick and a sack, worth -86 passing DYAR.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
22.	Jameis Winston	NO	13/25	122	2	2	1	-37	-37	0	MIN
Winston led all quarterbacks (min. 10 attempts) with an average depth of target of 15.2 yards. He went 0-for-7 with two picks on passes of at least 20 air yards. But he also led all quarterbacks with 41 DYAR in the red zone, with 14-yard and 15-yard touchdowns.
23.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	24/39	263	0	1	2	-39	-49	11	LV
24.	Bailey Zappe	NE	3/7	25	0	1	0	-47	-47	0	IND
25.	Tommy DeVito	NYG	14/27	86	2	1	5	-53	-61	8	DAL
I’m probably wrong in the tweet below. DeVito is not going to smell the list of the worst quarterbacks in DVOA history because, frankly, they just don’t let him throw the ball enough. So he’s not going to throw enough interceptions to have really, really bad value. So far this season he’s at -52.2% passing DVOA, which doesn’t get you near this group:
26.	Will Levis	TEN	19/39	199	0	1	4	-57	-57	0	TB
27.	Taylor Heinicke	ATL	8/15	55	1	0	3	-63	-74	11	ARI
MNF	Josh Allen	BUF	15/26	177	1	2	0	-81	-67	-15	DEN
28.	Joe Burrow	CIN	27/40	347	2	2	4	-85	-85	-1	HOU
Hey, what happened to “a healthy Joe Burrow is back to greatness!?” Burrow had -131 passing DYAR on first downs, completing 10 of 17 passes but only two of them for more than 10 yards, with a sack and two interceptions.
29.	Bryce Young	CAR	21/38	185	0	0	3	-105	-117	12	CHI
Young had just 1.7 net yards per pass on first downs and 1.9 net yards per pass on third downs, but on second downs he had 6.5 net yards per pass. He also completed both of his attempts on fourth down (both when behind in the fourth quarter) for a total of 24 yards and two first downs.
30.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	17/29	185	0	2	5	-108	-108	0	SF
Lawrence got successively worse with each down this week. On third down, he had three conversions but also took two sacks, threw an interception on third-and-1, and had a completion that lost four yards. His only fourth-down pass was also intercepted.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Brian Robinson	WAS	8	38	0	6/6	119	1	57	8	49	SEA
What’s remarkable about this game for Robinson is the amount of yards after the catch he got on passes that were not behind the line of scrimmage. His touchdown was 8 air yards plus 43 YAC. Later on, he had a pass that was 10 air yards with 38 YAC. Both of those passes came on second-and-longs.
2.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	16	95	0	6/10	47	0	44	39	5	JAX
McCaffrey had six first downs and four runs for double digits with only one carry that lost yardage or was stuffed at the line.
3.	Jonathan Taylor	IND	23	69	1	1/1	6	0	37	40	-4	NE
Taylor goes from 9 YAR to 40 DYAR because the Patriots defense has been very good against the run on first and second downs this year. He also converted three out of four short-yardage opportunities including a touchdown.
4.	Jerome Ford	CLE	17	107	0	1/1	2	0	37	40	-3	BAL
Ford had six first downs and only one carry that lost yardage or was stuffed at the line. He only had one run on third down but converted a third-and-2 with 6 yards up the middle.
5.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	15	101	1	2/4	9	0	36	40	-4	GB
Warren had five runs of double digits and only one carry that lost yardage. He even got 8 yards on a left end run on fourth-and-1.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jonathan Taylor	IND	23	69	1	1/1	6	0	37	40	-4	NE
2.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	15	101	1	2/4	9	0	36	40	-4	GB
3.	Jerome Ford	CLE	17	107	0	1/1	2	0	37	40	-3	BAL
4.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	16	95	0	6/10	47	0	44	39	5	JAX
MNF	Latavius Murray	BUF	9	68	1	2/3	1	0	22	37	-15	DEN
5.	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	14	77	2	3/5	35	0	32	30	1	LAC

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

MNF

Jaleel McLaughlin

DEN

2/2

-26

-17

-8

BUF

Tony Pollard

DAL

0/0

-17

NYG

Pollard goes from -3 rushing YAR to -17 rushing DYAR based on the Giants defense. He had two long runs of 12 and 15 yards and never lost yardage so honestly, this isn’t that bad a game.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Breece Hall

NYJ

3/3

-13

-33

Breece Hall goes from -23 rushing YAR to -33 rushing DYAR based on the Raiders defense. Hall had only one run over 5 yards and no first downs.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	8	9	156	19.5	1	92	LAC
St. Brown had 78 receiving DYAR with an additional 14 DYAR on two runs for 9 yards. He also had a 16-yard DPI gain as part of his receiving DYAR. His biggest play was a 46-yard gain early, then he had four gains of double digits in the second half.
2.	Noah Brown	HOU	7	8	172	24.6	0	84	CIN
Brown earned seven first downs with six catches of 20 or more yards. He was the only receiver with five deep catches (over 15 air yards) this week.
3.	Brandin Cooks	DAL	9	10	173	19.2	1	80	NYG
By far Cooks’ best game of tihs season, with five first downs plus a touchdown catch. In the third quarter, he converted a third-and-10 with a 10-yard pass and then took it an additional 22 yards after the catch to set up Dak Prescott‘s final touchdown of the game.
4.	Keenan Allen	LAC	11	14	175	15.9	2	77	DET
Allen loses 10 DYAR in opponent adjustments, as covering wide receivers is one thing the Lions have not done well this season. Allen had nine conversions including the two touchdowns, one of which tied the game 38-38 late after Allen came back from a shoulder issue which kept him out for a couple of drives.
5.	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	11	14	151	13.7	1	60	NYG
Lamb had 42 receiving DYAR with an additional 18 DYAR on his 14-yard touchdown run on an end around.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Rashid Shaheed	NO	5	9	24	4.8	0	-39	MIN
Shaheed had a catch for a loss of 3 yards early in the game. Then with Jameis Winston at quarterback, he caught just 1 of 4 passes for 0 yards: two short passes and two long bombs over 35 air yards each. The 0-yard catch failed to convert a third-and-1.

Week 10 Quick Reads: Another Impressive C.J. Stroud Joint

Authors

Aaron Schatz

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

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