NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
C.J. Stroud is having an incredible rookie season, but it hit its peak in yesterday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud had five touchdown passes and set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards, also leading a last-minute comeback for a 39-37 win.
As you might suspect, Stroud also set records by our numbers. Stroud’s game against Tampa Bay narrowly passes Russell Wilson in the 2012 divisional round against Atlanta to rank as the best rookie quarterback game since 1981 according to DYAR. Stroud’s game is easily the best by passing value, but Wilson also had seven carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Previously, the best passing performance belonged to Dak Prescott against the 2016 Baltimore Ravens.
| Rk | Year | Player | Team | Total DYAR | Pass DYAR | Rush DYAR | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Run | Yds | TD | WK | DEF |
| 1 | 2023 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 266 | 261 | 5 | 30 | 41 | 470 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 9 | TB |
| 2 | 2012 | Russell Wilson | SEA | 265 | 237 | 28 | 24 | 36 | 385 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 1 | 19 | ATL |
| 3 | 2016 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 254 | 247 | 7 | 27 | 36 | 301 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 11 | BAL |
| 4 | 1999 | Cade McNown | CHI | 211 | 200 | 11 | 27 | 36 | 301 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 15 | DET |
| 5 | 1998 | Ryan Leaf | SD | 187 | 183 | 4 | 25 | 49 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8 | SEA |
| 6 | 2003 | Byron Leftwich | JAX | 184 | 179 | 5 | 21 | 34 | 226 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 | TB |
| 7 | 2021 | Davis Mills | HOU | 177 | 175 | 2 | 21 | 29 | 312 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | NE |
| 8 | 2008 | Matt Ryan | ATL | 177 | 181 | -4 | 22 | 30 | 301 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | CHI |
| 9 | 1983 | Dan Marino | MIA | 175 | 172 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 217 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 | CIN |
| 10 | 1998 | Peyton Manning | IND | 169 | 169 | 0 | 17 | 26 | 210 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | CIN |
Changes in opponent adjustments during the year could still move Stroud’s game up or down. Right now, the Buccaneers are 17th in pass defense DVOA. By comparison, the 2012 Falcons were 10th and the 2016 Ravens were 13th.
Right now, Stroud is up to third in total passing DYAR on the season, narrowly behind Tua Tagovailoa with Josh Allen in first place. Stroud is easily on pace to surpass Dak Prescott‘s 2016 season as the best-ever rookie quarterback campaign by our measures.
Here’s a look at Stroud and the other best and worst players of Week 9 by DYAR:
| Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 30/41 | 470 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 266 | 261 | 5 | TB |
| Stroud had only 29 passing DYAR in the first half and then just went insane in the second half of this game with 232 DYAR and 15.9 net yards per pass. | |||||||||||
| 2. | Joe Burrow | CIN | 31/44 | 348 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 160 | 162 | -2 | BUF |
|
|
|||||||||||
| 3. | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 17/23 | 207 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 121 | 98 | 23 | DAL |
| Hurts gained 36 yards on 10 carries: 29 yards scrambling and 7 yards on four sneaks. | |||||||||||
| 4. | Dak Prescott | DAL | 29/44 | 374 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 102 | 100 | 2 | PHI |
| Prescott takes a 46 DYAR hit because the Eagles pass defense has not been good this year. Prescott completed 6 of 11 deep passes (16 or more air yards) with two additional DPI gains on deep passes. | |||||||||||
| 5. | Josh Allen | BUF | 27/38 | 258 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 | 73 | 26 | CIN |
| Allen gained 44 yards on eight carries with a touchdown. He earned 108 passing DYAR on first downs but -35 passing DYAR on second and third downs, with just 2.4 net yards per pass on third downs. | |||||||||||
| 6. | Aidan O’Connell | LV | 16/25 | 209 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 89 | 89 | 0 | NYG |
|
The rookie had a game that was worth a lot more in real value than in fantasy value, as he had no touchdown passes. His best down was generally second down, where he had a 70% success rate. O’Connell only completed 1 of 5 passes deep but that was a 50-yard bomb (47 air yards) to fellow rookie Tre Tucker. |
|||||||||||
| 7. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 21/30 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 73 | 83 | -11 | HOU |
| 8. | Jordan Love | GB | 20/25 | 228 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 64 | 57 | 7 | LAR |
| 9. | Kenny Pickett | PIT | 19/30 | 160 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 0 | TEN |
| 10. | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 22/34 | 192 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 51 | -11 | KC |
| Tagovailoa gets a 45-DYAR boost for playing the strong Chiefs pass defense. | |||||||||||
| 11. | Taylor Heinicke | ATL | 21/37 | 268 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 27 | 7 | MIN |
| Led all quarterbacks this week with an average of 8.2 yards after the catch on his completed passes. | |||||||||||
| 12. | Deshaun Watson | CLE | 19/29 | 219 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 28 | 4 | ARI |
| Watson was worth 65 passing DYAR on third downs, with a 49-yard bomb to Amari Cooper on third-and-6, a conversion on third-and-9, and a touchdown on third-and-4 from the Arizona 5. | |||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 13. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 20/30 | 185 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 26 | 4 | MIA |
| Mahomes was worth 79 passing DYAR in the first half with 7.4 net yards per pass and then -53 passing DYAR in the second half with 2.3 net yards per pass. | |||||||||||
| 14. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 21/25 | 187 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 31 | -2 | SEA |
| Last in the NFL this week with an average of 3.3 yards after the catch on his complete passes. | |||||||||||
| 15. | Derek Carr | NO | 25/34 | 211 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 29 | -6 | CHI |
| Carr was worth 71 passing DYAR in the first half and then -43 passing DYAR in the second half. He loses 54 DYAR for playing against the poor Chicago pass defense. | |||||||||||
| 16. | Gardner Minshew | IND | 17/26 | 127 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 1 | CAR |
| Minshew had an average depth of target of 3.6 yards, which is very low but not the lowest this week because Clayton Tune exists. | |||||||||||
| 17. | Joshua Dobbs | MIN | 20/30 | 158 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 12 | -16 | 28 | ATL |
| Dobbs carried the ball five times for 67 yards, scoring a touchdown and gaining three other first downs, but he also loses some value for an aborted snap, which is somewhat understandable since he had just shown up in Minnesota a few days beforehand! | |||||||||||
| 18. | Sam Howell | WAS | 29/45 | 325 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | NE |
| Howell was worth -59 passing DYAR (4.9 net yards per pass) on first downs but 69 passing DYAR (7.3 net yards per pass) on second and third downs. | |||||||||||
| 19. | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 18/30 | 220 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -9 | -38 | 29 | NO |
| Bagent ran the ball eight times for 70 yards including five first downs (one planned, four scrambles). Bagent went from 59 passing DYAR in the first half to -97 passing DYAR after halftime. | |||||||||||
| 20. | Daniel Jones | NYG | 4/9 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -46 | -42 | -3 | LV |
| Now done for the season with a torn ACL, he finishes the season dead last in passing DYAR. | |||||||||||
| 21. | Mac Jones | NE | 24/44 | 220 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -53 | -50 | -3 | WAS |
| 22. | Will Levis | TEN | 22/38 | 262 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -55 | -48 | -6 | PIT |
| Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
| 23. | Geno Smith | SEA | 13/28 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -57 | -57 | 0 | BAL |
| 24. | Tommy DeVito | NYG | 15/20 | 175 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -65 | -59 | -6 | LV |
|
“Hey where’s Tommy, someone find Tommy / We’re out on the road / Moving equipment, where’s the equipment / Then we’re going home.” |
|||||||||||
| 25. | Brett Rypien | LAR | 13/28 | 130 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -78 | -87 | 9 | GB |
| 26. | Clayton Tune | ARI | 11/20 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -168 | -179 | 10 | CLE |
| Yes, Clayton Tune does not finish as the worst quarterback of the week thanks to a huge 70 DYAR adjustment for playing the Cleveland Browns defense, which has been fantastic this year. Tune had a ridiculously low average depth of target of 2.45 yards. | |||||||||||
| 27. | Bryce Young | CAR | 24/39 | 173 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -199 | -211 | 12 | IND |
| Young averaged just 3.2 net yards per pass. For the season, he’s now next-to-last in passing DYAR ahead of only Daniel Jones. Young actually was reasonable on third down, completing all eight of his pass attempts, but most of these were failed completions that did not convert. He also had two sacks on third downs. Young averaged 2.1 net yards per pass on both first and second downs. | |||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Keaton Mitchell | BAL | 9 | 138 | 1 | 1/1 | -4 | 0 | 53 | 61 | -8 | SEA |
|
Who is Keaton Mitchell? He’s an undrafted free agent out of East Carolina who had played a total of two offensive snaps before this week. You might remember him from the 2023 FTN Almanac because we listed him in the section on rookie projections. He was one of two UDFAs with strong BackCAST projections along with Tampa Bay’s Sean Tucker. He’s undersized (5-foot-8, 191 pounds) but explosive. Last year in college, he averaged 7.2 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. This week he had a 40-yard touchdown and another 60-yard run. |
||||||||||||
| 2. | Antonio Gibson | WAS | 6 | 34 | 0 | 5/5 | 42 | 0 | 51 | 22 | 29 | NE |
| Gibson had three first downs as a receiver plus two other 7-yard receptions that were both successful plays based on down and distance. Then he also had three first downs as a runner. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Rachaad White | TB | 20 | 73 | 2 | 4/4 | 46 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 18 | HOU |
| White had three carries of double digits and two 1-yard touchdowns. His big reception was a 33-yard gain in the first quarter. | ||||||||||||
| 4. | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 11 | 88 | 0 | 3/3 | 25 | 0 | 48 | 32 | 15 | TEN |
| Warren had just one carry gain less than two yards, and he had five first downs on the ground, four of which had double-digit yardage. | ||||||||||||
| 5. | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 9 | 87 | 1 | 4/6 | 42 | 0 | 41 | 27 | 14 | WAS |
|
Most of this is a 64-yard touchdown but Stevenson had a couple of other rushing first downs plus two receiving first downs. |
||||||||||||
| Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Keaton Mitchell | BAL | 9 | 138 | 1 | 1/1 | -4 | 0 | 53 | 61 | -8 | SEA |
| 2. | Gus Edwards | BAL | 5 | 52 | 2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 38 | 0 | SEA |
| It wasn’t all Mitchell this week, as Edwards scored two touchdowns and had a 42-yard carry in the third quarter. The Ravens have a good offensive line, plus fear of Lamar Jackson keeping the ball opens up lanes for the running backs. | ||||||||||||
| 3. | Rachaad White | TB | 20 | 73 | 2 | 4/4 | 46 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 18 | HOU |
| 4. | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 11 | 88 | 0 | 3/3 | 25 | 0 | 48 | 32 | 15 | TEN |
| 5. | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 9 | 87 | 1 | 4/6 | 42 | 0 | 41 | 27 | 14 | WAS |
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Jerome Ford | CLE | 20 | 44 | 0 | 5/7 | 33 | 0 | -49 | -44 | -5 | ARI |
| Ford takes a hit of -14 rushing DYAR from playing a poor Arizona defense. He lost yardage on five of his 20 carries and had only two first downs. | ||||||||||||
| Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | D’Andre Swift | PHI | 18 | 42 | 0 | 2/2 | 31 | 0 | -30 | -49 | 19 | DAL |
| Swift fumbled twice and gained only one first down on the afternoon. | ||||||||||||
| Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
| 1. | Noah Brown | HOU | 6 | 6 | 153 | 25.5 | 1 | 57 | TB |
| A great day for C.J. Stroud also meant great days for many of his receivers. Brown had a 75-yard touchdown and then three first downs of 31, 28, and 14 yards. Those last three all came in the fourth quarter. | |||||||||
| 2. | Amari Cooper | CLE | 5 | 5 | 139 | 27.8 | 1 | 56 | ARI |
| Cooper had gains of 49 and 59 yards — the first one came on a third-and-6 — plus an 11-yard touchdown. | |||||||||
| 3. | Dalton Schultz | HOU | 10 | 11 | 130 | 13.0 | 1 | 48 | TB |
| Schultz lost a fumble early on but then caught almost everything thrown his way with seven first downs (including a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 9). | |||||||||
| 4. | Tee Higgins | CIN | 8 | 9 | 110 | 13.8 | 0 | 42 | BUF |
| 5. | Nathaniel Dell | HOU | 6 | 11 | 114 | 19.0 | 2 | 41 | TB |
| Dell had six first downs or touchdowns, including five different gains of at least 15 yards. | |||||||||
| Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | ||||||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp | |
| 1. | George Pickens | PIT | 2 | 5 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -49 | TEN | |
| Pickens was the target of incomplete passes on two third downs, otherwise having just catches of 2 yards and -3 yards. | ||||||||||
