Week 9 Quick Reads: C.J. Stroud's Record-Setting Afternoon

C.J. Stroud is having an incredible rookie season, but it hit its peak in yesterday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud had five touchdown passes and set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards, also leading a last-minute comeback for a 39-37 win.

As you might suspect, Stroud also set records by our numbers. Stroud’s game against Tampa Bay narrowly passes Russell Wilson in the 2012 divisional round against Atlanta to rank as the best rookie quarterback game since 1981 according to DYAR. Stroud’s game is easily the best by passing value, but Wilson also had seven carries for 60 yards and a touchdown. Previously, the best passing performance belonged to Dak Prescott against the 2016 Baltimore Ravens.

Rk	Year	Player	Team	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Run	Yds	TD	WK	DEF
1	2023	C.J. Stroud	HOU	266	261	5	30	41	470	5	0	3	1	10	0	9	TB
2	2012	Russell Wilson	SEA	265	237	28	24	36	385	2	1	2	7	60	1	19	ATL
3	2016	Dak Prescott	DAL	254	247	7	27	36	301	3	0	1	2	16	0	11	BAL
4	1999	Cade McNown	CHI	211	200	11	27	36	301	4	2	2	6	39	0	15	DET
5	1998	Ryan Leaf	SD	187	183	4	25	49	281	1	0	1	3	18	0	8	SEA
6	2003	Byron Leftwich	JAX	184	179	5	21	34	226	2	0	0	1	6	0	13	TB
7	2021	Davis Mills	HOU	177	175	2	21	29	312	3	0	3	1	2	0	5	NE
8	2008	Matt Ryan	ATL	177	181	-4	22	30	301	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	CHI
9	1983	Dan Marino	MIA	175	172	3	18	29	217	3	0	1	1	5	0	13	CIN
10	1998	Peyton Manning	IND	169	169	0	17	26	210	3	0	0	0	0	0	15	CIN

Changes in opponent adjustments during the year could still move Stroud’s game up or down. Right now, the Buccaneers are 17th in pass defense DVOA. By comparison, the 2012 Falcons were 10th and the 2016 Ravens were 13th.

Right now, Stroud is up to third in total passing DYAR on the season, narrowly behind Tua Tagovailoa with Josh Allen in first place. Stroud is easily on pace to surpass Dak Prescott‘s 2016 season as the best-ever rookie quarterback campaign by our measures.

Here’s a look at Stroud and the other best and worst players of Week 9 by DYAR:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	30/41	470	5	0	3	266	261	5	TB
Stroud had only 29 passing DYAR in the first half and then just went insane in the second half of this game with 232 DYAR and 15.9 net yards per pass.
2.	Joe Burrow	CIN	31/44	348	2	0	1	160	162	-2	BUF

3.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	17/23	207	2	0	3	121	98	23	DAL
Hurts gained 36 yards on 10 carries: 29 yards scrambling and 7 yards on four sneaks.
4.	Dak Prescott	DAL	29/44	374	3	0	5	102	100	2	PHI
Prescott takes a 46 DYAR hit because the Eagles pass defense has not been good this year. Prescott completed 6 of 11 deep passes (16 or more air yards) with two additional DPI gains on deep passes.
5.	Josh Allen	BUF	27/38	258	1	1	1	99	73	26	CIN
Allen gained 44 yards on eight carries with a touchdown. He earned 108 passing DYAR on first downs but -35 passing DYAR on second and third downs, with just 2.4 net yards per pass on third downs.
6.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	16/25	209	0	0	0	89	89	0	NYG
The rookie had a game that was worth a lot more in real value than in fantasy value, as he had no touchdown passes. His best down was generally second down, where he had a 70% success rate. O’Connell only completed 1 of 5 passes deep but that was a 50-yard bomb (47 air yards) to fellow rookie Tre Tucker.
7.	Baker Mayfield	TB	21/30	265	2	0	2	73	83	-11	HOU
8.	Jordan Love	GB	20/25	228	1	0	4	64	57	7	LAR
9.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	19/30	160	1	0	0	40	40	0	TEN
10.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	22/34	192	1	0	3	40	51	-11	KC
Tagovailoa gets a 45-DYAR boost for playing the strong Chiefs pass defense.
11.	Taylor Heinicke	ATL	21/37	268	1	1	1	34	27	7	MIN
Led all quarterbacks this week with an average of 8.2 yards after the catch on his completed passes.
12.	Deshaun Watson	CLE	19/29	219	2	0	1	31	28	4	ARI
Watson was worth 65 passing DYAR on third downs, with a 49-yard bomb to Amari Cooper on third-and-6, a conversion on third-and-9, and a touchdown on third-and-4 from the Arizona 5.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	20/30	185	2	0	2	30	26	4	MIA
Mahomes was worth 79 passing DYAR in the first half with 7.4 net yards per pass and then -53 passing DYAR in the second half with 2.3 net yards per pass.
14.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	21/25	187	0	0	1	28	31	-2	SEA
Last in the NFL this week with an average of 3.3 yards after the catch on his complete passes.
15.	Derek Carr	NO	25/34	211	2	0	0	23	29	-6	CHI
Carr was worth 71 passing DYAR in the first half and then -43 passing DYAR in the second half. He loses 54 DYAR for playing against the poor Chicago pass defense.
16.	Gardner Minshew	IND	17/26	127	1	0	1	17	17	1	CAR
Minshew had an average depth of target of 3.6 yards, which is very low but not the lowest this week because Clayton Tune exists.
17.	Joshua Dobbs	MIN	20/30	158	2	0	3	12	-16	28	ATL
Dobbs carried the ball five times for 67 yards, scoring a touchdown and gaining three other first downs, but he also loses some value for an aborted snap, which is somewhat understandable since he had just shown up in Minnesota a few days beforehand!
18.	Sam Howell	WAS	29/45	325	1	1	3	12	10	2	NE
Howell was worth -59 passing DYAR (4.9 net yards per pass) on first downs but 69 passing DYAR (7.3 net yards per pass) on second and third downs.
19.	Tyson Bagent	CHI	18/30	220	2	3	2	-9	-38	29	NO
Bagent ran the ball eight times for 70 yards including five first downs (one planned, four scrambles). Bagent went from 59 passing DYAR in the first half to -97 passing DYAR after halftime.
20.	Daniel Jones	NYG	4/9	25	0	0	2	-46	-42	-3	LV
Now done for the season with a torn ACL, he finishes the season dead last in passing DYAR.
21.	Mac Jones	NE	24/44	220	1	1	0	-53	-50	-3	WAS
22.	Will Levis	TEN	22/38	262	0	1	4	-55	-48	-6	PIT
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Geno Smith	SEA	13/28	157	0	1	4	-57	-57	0	BAL
24.	Tommy DeVito	NYG	15/20	175	1	2	6	-65	-59	-6	LV
“Hey where’s Tommy, someone find Tommy / We’re out on the road / Moving equipment, where’s the equipment / Then we’re going home.”
25.	Brett Rypien	LAR	13/28	130	0	1	1	-78	-87	9	GB
26.	Clayton Tune	ARI	11/20	58	0	2	7	-168	-179	10	CLE
Yes, Clayton Tune does not finish as the worst quarterback of the week thanks to a huge 70 DYAR adjustment for playing the Cleveland Browns defense, which has been fantastic this year. Tune had a ridiculously low average depth of target of 2.45 yards.
27.	Bryce Young	CAR	24/39	173	1	3	4	-199	-211	12	IND
Young averaged just 3.2 net yards per pass. For the season, he’s now next-to-last in passing DYAR ahead of only Daniel Jones. Young actually was reasonable on third down, completing all eight of his pass attempts, but most of these were failed completions that did not convert. He also had two sacks on third downs. Young averaged 2.1 net yards per pass on both first and second downs.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Keaton Mitchell	BAL	9	138	1	1/1	-4	0	53	61	-8	SEA
Who is Keaton Mitchell? He’s an undrafted free agent out of East Carolina who had played a total of two offensive snaps before this week. You might remember him from the 2023 FTN Almanac because we listed him in the section on rookie projections. He was one of two UDFAs with strong BackCAST projections along with Tampa Bay’s Sean Tucker. He’s undersized (5-foot-8, 191 pounds) but explosive. Last year in college, he averaged 7.2 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. This week he had a 40-yard touchdown and another 60-yard run.
2.	Antonio Gibson	WAS	6	34	0	5/5	42	0	51	22	29	NE
Gibson had three first downs as a receiver plus two other 7-yard receptions that were both successful plays based on down and distance. Then he also had three first downs as a runner.
3.	Rachaad White	TB	20	73	2	4/4	46	0	50	33	18	HOU
White had three carries of double digits and two 1-yard touchdowns. His big reception was a 33-yard gain in the first quarter.
4.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	11	88	0	3/3	25	0	48	32	15	TEN
Warren had just one carry gain less than two yards, and he had five first downs on the ground, four of which had double-digit yardage.
5.	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	9	87	1	4/6	42	0	41	27	14	WAS
Most of this is a 64-yard touchdown but Stevenson had a couple of other rushing first downs plus two receiving first downs.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Keaton Mitchell	BAL	9	138	1	1/1	-4	0	53	61	-8	SEA
2.	Gus Edwards	BAL	5	52	2	0/0	0	0	38	38	0	SEA
It wasn’t all Mitchell this week, as Edwards scored two touchdowns and had a 42-yard carry in the third quarter. The Ravens have a good offensive line, plus fear of Lamar Jackson keeping the ball opens up lanes for the running backs.
3.	Rachaad White	TB	20	73	2	4/4	46	0	50	33	18	HOU
4.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	11	88	0	3/3	25	0	48	32	15	TEN
5.	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	9	87	1	4/6	42	0	41	27	14	WAS

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Jerome Ford

CLE

5/7

-49

-44

-5

ARI

Ford takes a hit of -14 rushing DYAR from playing a poor Arizona defense. He lost yardage on five of his 20 carries and had only two first downs.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

D’Andre Swift

PHI

2/2

-30

-49

DAL

Swift fumbled twice and gained only one first down on the afternoon.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Noah Brown	HOU	6	6	153	25.5	1	57	TB
A great day for C.J. Stroud also meant great days for many of his receivers. Brown had a 75-yard touchdown and then three first downs of 31, 28, and 14 yards. Those last three all came in the fourth quarter.
2.	Amari Cooper	CLE	5	5	139	27.8	1	56	ARI
Cooper had gains of 49 and 59 yards — the first one came on a third-and-6 — plus an 11-yard touchdown.
3.	Dalton Schultz	HOU	10	11	130	13.0	1	48	TB
Schultz lost a fumble early on but then caught almost everything thrown his way with seven first downs (including a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 9).
4.	Tee Higgins	CIN	8	9	110	13.8	0	42	BUF
5.	Nathaniel Dell	HOU	6	11	114	19.0	2	41	TB
Dell had six first downs or touchdowns, including five different gains of at least 15 yards.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	George Pickens	PIT	2	5	-1	-0.5	0	-49	TEN
Pickens was the target of incomplete passes on two third downs, otherwise having just catches of 2 yards and -3 yards.

Week 9 Quick Reads: C.J. Stroud’s Record-Setting Afternoon

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