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Mac Jones of the New England Patriots has a very strange career path.
Jones was good as a rookie, very productive compared to other rookie quarterbacks. He ended the year with 6.1% passing DVOA, 13th that year among qualifying quarterbacks. By DYAR, Jones had the 10th-best passing season for any rookie in our database, back to 1981.
Jones struggled significantly in his second year. His pass DVOA fell to -10.1%, which ranked 26th among qualifying quarterbacks. Many of us blamed problems with the New England organization, including the hiring of defensive-minded Matt Patricia to run the offense, and we assumed that Jones would bounce back somewhat in his third season.
He has not. Instead, he is worse. Jones is close to being benched at this point, except that the Patriots don’t have anything realistic to replace him with. Jones ranks 28th among qualifying quarterbacks with -21.5% passing DVOA through Week 6. That’s only because he was reasonable and near average for the first three games. In the last three games, Jones has a passing DVOA of -53.8%.
How common is this kind of career path? It’s very, very rare. So rare that I found only one other quarterback with a similar path, and a few players at other positions. I went looking for players who were above average by DVOA as rookies, below average in their second seasons, and then even worse in their third seasons. They need to qualify for our rankings in all three years (200 passes, 100 runs, 50 targets for WR, and 25 targets for TE).
There are not many of them.
When I brought up this idea on Twitter/X yesterday, there were a number of responses asking about certain quarterbacks people thought were similar. Just to go through some of those:
- Rick Mirer did indeed get worse in his third season, but he was never above average. Mirer had -16.3% pass DVOA as a rookie, -12.3% in Year 2, and then -21.2% in Year 3.
- Josh Freeman‘s great year was his second season, not his first. He was very, very bad as a rookie in 2009, then ranked eighth in pass DVOA in his second season of 2010 before his performance collapsed again in Year 3.
- Kerry Collins had a similar career trajectory to Freeman – terrible in Year 1, great in Year 2, terrible again after that – except unlike Freeman he was able to resuscitate his career in New York starting in 1999.
- Baker Mayfield did decline substantially from his rookie year (8.1%) to his second year (-9.8%) but rebounded with 5.1% DVOA in 2020, his third season, before he declined again in 2021 and was even worse in 2022.
There is one quarterback who had a career trajectory like Mac Jones, though. There was a very different explanation. Here are the (skill) players I found with a Mac Jones-like trajectory in Years 1-3.
Quarterback: Robert Griffin III
Remember how good Griffin was as a rookie? I’m looking here just at passing numbers, but Griffin finished seventh in pass DVOA (and fourth in VOA, without opponent adjustments) for the 2012 Redskins. Then he got hurt. Then he got more hurt. And then his career imploded. Griffin had -13.1% pass DVOA in Year 2. He had a horrendous -34.2% pass DVOA in Year 3, even worse than Mac Jones this season. Then he missed 2015, started a few games for Cleveland, and was a backup in Baltimore for a bit. He never came close to that rookie performance ever again.
Running Back: Jerome Bettis
Not quite the same because Bettis was slightly better in Year 3 than Year 2, but otherwise similar. Bettis was fantastic as Offensive Rookie of the Year for the 1993 Rams. He finished the season No. 3 in run DVOA, trailing only Emmitt Smith and Gary Brown of the Oilers. Then everything went kablooey. Bettis went from 4.7 yards per carry to 3.2 yards per carry in 1994 with -17.6% DVOA. He had -15.1% DVOA, pretty similar, after the Rams moved to St. Louis. So they traded him to Pittsburgh… and Bettis bounced back in a huge way, leading the NFL in rushing value in 1996 and having a great career that ended with that 2005 Super Bowl title.
Running Back: Antonio Gibson
Another strange one because Gibson has gotten progressively worse running the ball and progressively better as a receiver. As a rookie, Gibson ranked sixth in run DVOA but 44th in receiving DVOA among qualifying running backs. In 2021, he was 38th running and 29th receiving. Last year, he was 41st rushing, but 13th receiving. It’s early, but so far this year, Gibson has his worst run DVOA yet at -46.7% and another positive receiving DVOA at 4.4%.
Wide Receiver: Michael Clayton
Clayton was fantstic as a rookie, ranking third in DYAR and eighth in DVOA among wide receivers with 1,196 receiving yards in 2004. He dealt with some injuries the next year, but still played 14 games… and his abilities completely vanished. He had just 375 receiving yards and was 83rd among qualifying wideouts with -18.7% DVOA. Then in 2006, he had a few more targets but even fewer yards, just 360, and a slightly lower DVOA, -19.4%. Clayton spent three more years with the Bucs but was never above-average as a receiver again, then was a scrub with the Giants for a couple years.
Wide Receiver: Anthony Miller
Maybe the best comp for Jones at another position. Like Jones, Miller was always supposed to be a high-floor, low-ceiling slot guy who turned out to have a lower floor than anyone anticipated. As a rookie, he was 46th with 3.9% DVOA. In Year 2, he had more targets and yards but fewer touchdowns and fell to -7.6% DVOA which ranked 59th. In Year 3, he plummeted to -36.4% DVOA which ranked 85th even though he had the highest catch rate of his career. He bounced to a couple teams in 2021, barely played, and hasn’t appeared in a regular-season game since. He’s on the Colts practice squad right now.
Wide Receiver: Darius Slayton
Unlike Jones and Miller, a low-round draft pick, but a demonstration that there’s some hope with this career path. Slayton surprised as a rookie with 9.6% receiving DVOA, which ranked 25th, and eight touchdowns. He had basically the same number of yards in Year 2 but with more targets and fewer touchdowns. He ended up with -13.6% DVOA, which ranked 77th. Then in 2021, his performance collapsed, with just a 45% catch rate, 339 receiving yards, and -36.2% DVOA, which ranked 92nd among 93 qualifying receivers. But, Slayton rebounded in Year 4, last season, finishing a surprising 16th in receiving DVOA at 13.5%. He’s back to negative this year, but you can blame his quarterback for a lot of that, and he certainly looked good with four catches for 69 yards last night. Nice.
Tight End: John Carlson
Carlson ranked eighth in DVOA as a rookie in 2008. That season ranks sixth all-time in rookie tight end DYAR. The next year, Carlson went from five touchdowns to seven but had fewer yards, a lower catch rate, and a lower DVOA at -5.1%. Then in Year 3, he was awful, with just 318 yards and -34.8% DVOA which ranked 44th among qualifying tight ends. Carlson missed 2011 after a major concussion in the 2010 playoffs. He signed a five-year, $25-million contract with Minnesota in 2012 and played two years there with negative receiving DVOA, then finished up his career with -20.0% reeicing DVOA for Arizona in 2014. He never again came close to the efficiency he showed as a rookie.
There are three other tight ends who don’t quite match up with Jones. They were very good as rookies but collapsed in Year 2, so they were essentially very bad in both Year 2 and Year 3: Martellus Bennett, Mychal Rivera, and Ian Thomas. Bennett, of course, bounced back to have a fine career, and Thomas is still around.
On to the results from Week 6…
Updated with Monday Night Football on Tuesday at 9:50am EDT.
Quarterbacks | |||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Jared Goff | DET | 30/44 | 353 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 191 | 190 | 0 | TB |
Goff and Tagovailoa are tied in passing YAR but Goff gets a bump from a Tampa Bay defense that has been pretty good this year. On third downs, Goff was 10-of-14 with a sack and two touchdowns for 11.4 net yards per pass. The 45-yard bomb to Jameson Williams came on third-and-10. | |||||||||||
2. | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | 21/31 | 262 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 162 | -23 | CAR |
Tagovailoa’s -23 rushing DYAR come from the only aborted play for any quarterback this week. For the entire season, he leads the NFL in passing DYAR and is dead last in rushing DYAR because he has so much negative value on aborted plays (bad snaps, bad handoffs, etc.). | |||||||||||
MNF | Dak Prescott | DAL | 21/30 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 81 | 70 | 11 | LAC |
3. | Tyrod Taylor | NYG | 24/34 | 200 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 73 | 69 | 5 | BUF |
Taylor goes from 40 YAR to 73 DYAR because of the Buffalo defense. He converted 9 of his 17 passing opportunities on third or fourth down, not including penalties such as the DPI that led to the untimed down at the end of the game. Taylor got a league-low average of 3.0 yards after the catch from his receivers this week. | |||||||||||
4. | Derek Carr | NO | 33/50 | 353 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67 | 65 | 2 | HOU |
Carr goes from 111 DYAR to 67 YAR because of the Houston defense. He led all quarterbacks (tied with Josh Dobbs) with 15 deep attempts (16 or more air yards) and completed five of them with an interception and a DPI. | |||||||||||
5. | Brian Hoyer | LV | 6/10 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 62 | 0 | NE |
Hoyer converted three of five attempts on third down, including a 48-yard deep bomb to Tre Tucker but not including an 11-yard DPI gain. | |||||||||||
6. | Matthew Stafford | LAR | 15/22 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 57 | 61 | -4 | ARI |
MNF | Justin Herbert | LAC | 22/37 | 227 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50 | 55 | -5 | DAL |
7. | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 13/27 | 199 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 45 | 48 | -3 | NO |
8. | Patrick Mahomes | KC | 31/40 | 306 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 25 | 12 | DEN |
Mahomes led all quarterbacks by getting 6.9 average YAC from his receivers this week. | |||||||||||
9. | Lamar Jackson | BAL | 21/30 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 12 | 22 | TEN |
10. | Josh Allen | BUF | 19/30 | 169 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 31 | -5 | NYG |
Josh Allen this year has -7 passing DYAR on passes to the middle of the field, compared to 438 DYAR on passes to the left (first in the NFL) and 385 DYAR on passes to the right (second in the NFL). | |||||||||||
11. | Sam Howell | WAS | 14/23 | 151 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 1 | ATL |
12. | Jimmy Garoppolo | LV | 14/22 | 162 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 17 | 1 | NE |
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
13. | Joe Burrow | CIN | 24/35 | 185 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | SEA |
Burrow led all quarterbacks this week with 67 DYAR on first downs. He was 11-of-14 with two touchdowns, a DPI, and a sack. But he had -26 DYAR on second downs and -36 DYAR on third downs with just 2.1 net yards per pass on third downs. | |||||||||||
14. | Geno Smith | SEA | 27/41 | 323 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | CIN |
Geno Smith had 35 passing DYAR in the first half and -28 passing DYAR (with both of his interceptions) in the second half. Smith in the red zone: 3-of-10 with an interception, two sacks, and a DPI, with no touchdowns (-93 DYAR). | |||||||||||
15. | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 20/30 | 181 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -12 | -19 | 7 | IND |
Trevor Lawrence had 35 passing DYAR in the first half and -54 passing DYAR in the second half. | |||||||||||
16. | Baker Mayfield | TB | 19/37 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -15 | -16 | 1 | DET |
17. | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 8/16 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15 | -15 | 0 | BAL |
18. | Zach Wilson | NYJ | 19/33 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -18 | -25 | 7 | PHI |
19. | Mac Jones | NE | 24/33 | 200 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -18 | -18 | 0 | LV |
20. | Jalen Hurts | PHI | 28/45 | 280 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -19 | -56 | 37 | NYJ |
Hurts carried the ball eight times for 47 yards and a touchdown (on fourth-and-goal from the 3), with three scrambles and five designed runs. | |||||||||||
21. | Tyson Bagent | CHI | 10/14 | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -22 | -25 | 4 | MIN |
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22. | Brock Purdy | SF | 13/26 | 125 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -24 | -32 | 8 | CLE |
Purdy may be higher on this list than you expected, because his average pass attempt came with 11.6 yards to go to move the sticks. No other quarterback this week was above 10.7. | |||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | CP/AT | Yds | TD | INT | Sacks | Total DYAR |
Pass DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Opp |
23. | Bryce Young | CAR | 23/38 | 217 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -26 | -26 | 0 | MIA |
24. | Desmond Ridder | ATL | 29/46 | 307 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -38 | -48 | 10 | WAS |
Ridder had 41 passing DYAR in the first half and -89 passing DYAR (with all three of his interceptions) in the second half. | |||||||||||
25. | Kirk Cousins | MIN | 22/31 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -63 | -66 | 3 | CHI |
26. | Justin Fields | CHI | 6/10 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -75 | -88 | 13 | MIN |
27. | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | 22/41 | 235 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -95 | -89 | -7 | LAR |
28. | P.J. Walker | CLE | 19/34 | 192 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -102 | -95 | -6 | SF |
Walker would be last if we only looked at YAR without opponent adjustments. He goes from -127 passing YAR to -95 DYAR for playing the 49ers defense. | |||||||||||
29. | Gardner Minshew | IND | 33/55 | 329 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -103 | -96 | -7 | JAX |
Minshew on deep passes of 16 or more air yards: 3-of-11 with three interceptions. | |||||||||||
30. | Russell Wilson | DEN | 13/22 | 95 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -121 | -136 | 15 | KC |
Wilson had five dropbacks on third down: a 4-yard pass that didn’t convert, two incomplete passes, and two sacks. |
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Kyren Williams | LAR | 20 | 158 | 1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 0 | ARI |
Williams is our top running back of the week despite taking a 20 DYAR hit from opponent adjustments for playing the Arizona Cardinals. Williams had more gains for double digits (five) than gains that gained a yard or less (four). Williams had an ankle injury near the end of the game and will miss next week’s game. | ||||||||||||
2. | Breece Hall | NYJ | 12 | 39 | 1 | 5/5 | 54 | 0 | 45 | 24 | 21 | PHI |
Hall had catches for 25, 15, and 10 yards, although that last one came on third-and-23. | ||||||||||||
3. | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 17 | 115 | 2 | 3/3 | 17 | 1 | 44 | 23 | 21 | CAR |
Mostert takes a 26 rushing DYAR hit on opponent adjustments for the Carolina Panthers defense. Mostert had six carries of 7 or more yards, including one for 49, and he converted for a first down and a touchdown on two of his four carries that went 4 yards. One of his three receptions was a 3-yard touchdown while another converted third-and-8. | ||||||||||||
4. | Ezekiel Elliott | NE | 7 | 34 | 1 | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 10 | LV |
Elliott moved the chains on four of his seven carries, including a touchdown in the third quarter. | ||||||||||||
5. | Derrick Henry | TEN | 12 | 97 | 1 | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 27 | 17 | 10 | BAL |
Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Kyren Williams | LAR | 20 | 158 | 1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 0 | ARI |
2. | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 19 | 88 | 1 | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 24 | -3 | MIA |
Hubbard was never stuffed for a loss or no gain and had only one carry for a single yard. He also had a 19-yard run on second-and-9. Everything else was between 2 and 7 yards. | ||||||||||||
3. | Breece Hall | NYJ | 12 | 39 | 1 | 5/5 | 54 | 0 | 45 | 24 | 21 | PHI |
4. | Devin Singletary | HOU | 12 | 58 | 0 | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 24 | -4 | NO |
Singletary had a 2-yard loss but otherwise gained 2 yards or more on all his carries, including first downs of 17 and 11 yards. | ||||||||||||
5. | Raheem Mostert | MIA | 17 | 115 | 2 | 3/3 | 17 | 1 | 44 | 23 | 21 | CAR |
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
1. | Alexander Mattison | MIN | 18 | 44 | 0 | 4/7 | 28 | 0 | -35 | -17 | -18 | CHI |
Only one of Mattison’s 22 touches moved the chains. He didn’t have a run longer than 8 yards although his four catches included a 13-yard reception on third-and-20 that just improved punting position. |
Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing) | ||||||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Runs | Rush Yds |
Rush TD |
Rec | Rec Yds |
Rec TD |
Total DYAR |
Rush DYAR |
Rec DYAR |
Opp |
MNF | Tony Pollard | DAL | 15 | 30 | 0 | 6/7 | 80 | 0 | -8 | -24 | 16 | LAC |
1. | Saquon Barkley | NYG | 24 | 93 | 0 | 4/5 | 5 | 0 | -31 | -23 | -8 | BUF |
This one is interesting because Barkley had those two huge runs near the end of the game, 19 and 34 yards. For the rest of the game, he had 22 carries for 40 yards. Barkley had seven carries that lost yardage and another four stuffed at the line. He only moved the chains three times: those two long runs and a 7-yard run on second-and-3 in the third quarter. |
Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR | |||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
MNF | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 7 | 7 | 117 | 16.7 | 0 | 58 | LAC |
1. | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 7 | 9 | 148 | 21.1 | 1 | 56 | ARI |
Kupp converted two third-and-9s, one with a 13-yard touchdown. | |||||||||
2. | A.J. Brown | PHI | 7 | 9 | 131 | 18.7 | 0 | 55 | NYJ |
Six of Brown’s seven catches moved the chains. Four of those catches came on third down with at least 5 yards to go. | |||||||||
3. | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 6 | 10 | 163 | 27.2 | 1 | 55 | CAR |
Right now, the total season receiving DYAR gap between Hill and No. 2 Nico Collins is equal to the gap between Collins and No. 8 Justin Jefferson. | |||||||||
4. | Adam Thielen | CAR | 11 | 13 | 115 | 10.5 | 1 | 45 | MIA |
5. | Rashid Shaheed | NO | 2 | 6 | 85 | 42.5 | 1 | 39 | HOU |
Shaheed also had two carries for 18 yards, gaining 15 DYAR. |
Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR | |||||||||
Rk | Player | Team | Rec | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Total DYAR |
Opp |
MNF | Michael Gallup | DAL | 3 | 10 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | -54 | LAC |
1. | Kadarius Toney | KC | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 | -43 | DEN |
Toney gets -17 rushing DYAR for two carries that lost yardage, one of which came on third-and-1. As a receiver, he had the touchdown on third-and-goal from the 3 but otherwise gained 6 yards on 5 targets. |