Week 8 Quick Reads: Will Levis and Great QB Debuts

Will Levis had an impressive debut at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans this week, with four touchdown passes. However, this game was not one of the best quarterback debuts in DVOA history because Levis played a bad pass defense (Atlanta) and had a low success rate of 29%. Most of his success came from the four touchdowns, which made up 157 of his 238 passing yards. Levis didn’t have another completion over 12 yards. Four of his six completions on third down were “failed completions” that didn’t move the sticks.

Levis’ game made me wonder, however, about the best quarterback debuts since 1981. I went looking for them. Most of the best quarterback debuts came from veteran backups, not from hotshot rookies. Here’s a look at the best-ever first quarterback starts by DYAR. By the way, the best debut start for the Titans franchise belongs to Billy Volek in 2003 (153 DYAR vs. Buffalo) followed by Marcus Mariota in 2015 (147 DYAR vs. Tampa Bay).

6. Kyle Allen, Week 17 2018 (158 DYAR)

The best debut by an actual rookie quarterback does not belong to any No. 1 overall pick or even a first-round pick. It belongs to undrafted Kyle Allen for the 2018 Carolina Panthers against the New Orleans Saints. Allen completed 16 of 27 passes for 227 yards and two touchdowns, adding 19 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground in a 33-14 win.

5. Jarrett Stidham, Week 17 2022 (160 DYAR)

You remember this one, of course. Stidham got his first start after nearly four years in the NFL and passed for 365 yards and three touchdowns against San Francisco, the No. 4 pass defense of last year, adding in seven runs for 33 yards. He did have two interceptions, however, including a deep pass to Davante Adams that was intercepted by Tashaun Gipson and returned 56 yards to put the 49ers in position for the winning field goal in a 37-34 overtime loss.

4. Todd Bouman, Week 13 2001 (166 DYAR)

Bouman had been a backup for the Vikings for five years when he finally got his first career start in place of Daunte Culpepper at the age of 29. All he did was complete 21 of 31 passses for 384 yards and four touchdowns against Tennessee, and he was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. The raw stats are better than the advanced stats since the Titans ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA that season. The Vikings won the game 42-24, but it was the only win Bouman ever had as a starting quarterback. He bounced around the league until 2010.

3. Rob Johnson, Week 1 1997 (179 DYAR)

Johnson finally became the starting quarterback in his third year with the Jaguars, taking the place of an injured Mark Brunell, and he hit 20 of 24 passes for 297 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran three times for 31 yards and a touchdown, and somehow took only three sacks. (This is the equivalent of Sam Howell only taking one sack against Philadelphia this week. How did it happen?) The Jaguars won the game 28-27 and Johnson looked so promising in that game — his only start of 1997 — that Buffalo signed him to a huge contract the next offseason to be their starter. That did not work out well.

2. Stan Humphries, Week 4 1990 (186 DYAR)

Stan Humphries was a sixth-round pick by Washington in 1988 and finally got his first start with Mark Rypien injured in 1990. Humphries completed 20 of 25 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns, and added a rushing touchdown on a QB sneak. Washington clobbered the Phoenix Cardinals 38-10. Humphries was dealt to San Diego in the offseason and went on to lead the Chargers to the Super Bowl in 1994.

1. Eric Hipple, Week 7 1981 (225 DYAR)

Hipple got his first start in his second year as a fourth-round pick. He completed only 14 of 25 passes but they gained 336 yards with four touchdowns. He had touchdown passes of 44 yards (to Freddie Scott) and 94 yards (to Leonard Thompson) with the game already decided in the fourth quarter. He also scored two rushing touchdowns in a 48-17 win over Chicago. Hipple was 6-4 as the Lions’ starter that season and then was up and down for the rest of his career, in and out of the Detroit lineup.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Joe Burrow	CIN	28/32	283	3	0	3	207	196	11	SF
Burrow added five carries for 44 yards. He only converted two of six passing opportunities on third down, but then, the point is that he only had six passing opportunities on third down because the Bengals kept moving the chains on first and second downs. Burrow had 120 passing DYAR on first downs.
2.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	29/38	319	4	0	2	158	177	-19	WAS
Hurts led all quarterbacks this week with 132 DYAR on deep passes of 16 or more air yards. He completed 5 of 7 for 120 yards and three touchdowns plus a 31-yard DPI to A.J. Brown. Hurts loses 33 DYAR due to the Washington pass defense being poor.
3.	Josh Allen	BUF	31/40	324	2	1	2	149	115	34	TB
Allen added six carries for 42 yards and a touchdown. He has now passed Tua Tagovailoa for the league lead in passing DYAR on the season.
4.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	23/31	274	2	0	2	145	141	4	GB
Cousins averaged 9.6 net yards per pass on third downs, converting eight of his 14 opportunities. He finishes his season ranked seventh in passing DYAR and eighth in passing DVOA through eight games. He was also No. 1 in DYAR on deep passes this season.
5.	Justin Herbert	LAC	31/40	298	3	0	0	145	148	-3	CHI
Herbert loses 50 passing DYAR due to opponent adjustments for the Bears defense.
6.	Derek Carr	NO	19/27	310	2	0	1	130	130	0	IND
7.	Dak Prescott	DAL	25/31	304	4	1	3	113	110	3	LAR
Dak Prescott has now thrown half his passes this season on the right side of the field. He has a better DVOA throwing to the right than the middle or the left. This week, Prescott was 12-of-15 on passes to the right side for an average of 10 yards per attempt against a Rams defense that went into the weekend No. 1 against passes on that side of the field.
MNF	Jared Goff	DET	26/37	272	1	1	0	107	107	0	LV
8.	Sam Howell	WAS	40/52	397	4	1	1	100	91	9	PHI
Howell kept picking on the middle of the Eagles defense, leading all quarterbacks with 19 pass attempts and 109 DYAR on passes to the middle of the field. He threw a 7-yard touchdown to Logan Thomas and a 21-yard touchdown to Jahan Dotson categorized as “middle” passes. However, he had a terrible before/after halftime split, with 135 passing DYAR before halftime and then -44 passing DYAR after halftime.
9.	Brock Purdy	SF	22/31	365	1	2	2	80	66	14	CIN
10.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	24/32	300	1	1	3	78	77	2	PIT
There was plenty of good for Lawrence in this game but there was also this:
11.	Baker Mayfield	TB	25/42	237	2	0	3	76	75	1	BUF
12.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	16/24	140	0	0	2	56	45	11	CAR
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	30/45	324	3	1	2	55	66	-12	NE
Tagovailoa had -28 passing DYAR before halftime and then 94 passing DYAR after halftime.
14.	Taylor Heinicke	ATL	12/21	175	1	0	1	54	53	1	TEN
Heinicke averaged 7.6 net yards per pass compared to 2.1 net yards per pass for Desmond Ridder.
15.	Will Levis	TEN	19/29	238	4	0	2	51	48	3	ATL
16.	Geno Smith	SEA	23/37	254	2	2	1	41	48	-6	CLE
Smith had 125 passing DYAR in the first quarter, completing 8 of 12 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown. He struggled in the second and third quarters (-109 DYAR) and then rebounded by driving for the game-winning touchdown in the fourth quarter (32 DYAR). Smith would have only -22 YAR without opponent adjustments, but the Browns defense has been spectacular this year so he moves up 70 DYAR with adjustments.
17.	Gardner Minshew	IND	23/41	213	2	1	2	36	34	2	NO
18.	Joshua Dobbs	ARI	25/37	208	2	2	2	14	5	9	BAL
19.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	10/16	73	0	0	1	13	22	-10	JAX
Pickett’s completions gained an average of just 1.5 yards after the catch before his injury.
20.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	13/22	162	1	1	1	12	9	4	DAL
21.	Mitchell Trubisky	PIT	15/26	138	1	2	2	12	3	8	JAX
Trubisky attempted six deep passes (16+ air yards) and completed zero, with two interceptions (one a Hail Mary).
22.	Bryce Young	CAR	22/31	235	1	0	6	2	-1	3	HOU
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Russell Wilson	DEN	12/19	114	3	0	6	-5	-19	14	KC
24.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	18/27	157	1	0	4	-11	-3	-8	ARI
Jackson only threw three passes in the red zone but they were a 5-yard touchdown on second-and-goal, a 12-yard completion on second-and-9, and a 16-yard DPI on third-and-7.
25.	Jordan Love	GB	24/41	229	1	1	4	-20	-23	3	MIN
26.	Brett Rypien	LAR	5/10	42	0	0	1	-21	-21	0	DAL
27.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	17/35	240	1	0	4	-33	-23	-9	NYG
Wilson had negative DYAR in all four quarters of regulation, then 21 DYAR on four pass attempts in overtime.
28.	Tommy DeVito	NYG	2/7	-1	0	0	2	-47	-49	3	NYJ
29.	Mac Jones	NE	19/29	161	2	1	3	-53	-53	0	MIA

30.	Tyson Bagent	CHI	25/37	232	0	2	1	-73	-59	-14	LAC
31.	P.J. Walker	CLE	15/31	248	1	2	3	-79	-93	15	SEA
Walker had -119 passing DYAR on third downs, going 5 for 9 with two interceptions, two sacks, and two failed completions.
32.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	8/12	71	0	0	5	-83	-93	10	TEN
33.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	24/38	241	0	2	3	-106	-109	4	DEN
This is the worst game Patrick Mahomes ever had by DYAR, due in large part to opponent adjustments for the Broncos defense. On top of the two picks and the sack-fumble and the poor performance by basically every split, Mahomes had three passes that lost yardage. At the same time, it’s hard to blame him for something like this:
MNF	Jimmy Garoppolo	LV	10/21	126	0	1	6	-121	-123	2	DET

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	12	54	1	6/7	64	1	53	18	35	CIN
Between runs and receptions, McCaffrey had five first downs plus two touchdowns.
2.	Joe Mixon	CIN	16	87	1	3/3	23	0	49	31	19	SF
Mixon had five touches gain at least 9 yards: four carries plus a reception for 12 yards on a first-and-10.
3.	Kareem Hunt	CLE	14	55	1	1/1	12	0	40	32	8	SEA
Hunt converted three runs in short yardage, a couple of third downs and a second-and-goal from the 1.
MNF	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	26	152	1	5/5	37	0	39	14	25	LV
4.	Brian Robinson	WAS	10	59	0	2/2	20	0	38	24	13	PHI
Robinson’s rushing DYAR doubles because of the quality of the Eagles run defense this season.
5.	Derrick Henry	TEN	22	101	0	4/4	21	0	37	28	9	ATL

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Gus Edwards	BAL	19	80	3	2/2	14	0	29	42	-13	ARI
Edwards was even more impressive in raw stats but takes a 17-DYAR hit because the Cardinals have a poor run defense. The negative receiving value comes from a fumble, which the Ravens recovered.
2.	James Cook	BUF	14	67	0	1/1	6	0	34	35	-1	TB
Cook had a 79% success rate, with at least 4 yards on nine of his 14 carries. He gains 15 DYAR for facing a strong Tampa Bay run defense.
3.	Bijan Robinson	ATL	11	62	1	0/5	0	0	16	33	-17	TEN
4.	Kareem Hunt	CLE	14	55	1	1/1	12	0	40	32	8	SEA
5.	Royce Freeman	LAR	9	44	1	0/0	0	0	31	31	0	DAL

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total/Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Alexander Mattison

MIN

1/1

-38

-33

-5

Mattison had only two first downs and was stuffed or dropped for a loss on five of his 16 carries. Only three carries gained more than 2 yards.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	A.J. Brown	PHI	8	8	130	16.2	2	91	WAS
Brown now leads all wide receivers with 319 DYAR on the season, narrowly ahead of Tyreek Hill at 315. There’s a huge gap between those two players and the No. 3 receiver, Chicago’s DJ Moore at 222 DYAR.
2.	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	12	14	158	13.2	2	79	LAR
Includes 10 DYAR for a 12-yard run. Lamb had six receptions that gained at least 17 yards, including one for exactly 17 yards on a second-and-17.
3.	Rashid Shaheed	NO	3	3	153	51.0	1	75	IND
Each of Shaheed’s three catches were super deep shots. He gained 44 yards with 0 YAC on a bomb from Taysom Hill, 51 yards with 13 YAC on a third-and-13 from Derek Carr, and 58 yards with 15 YAC on a second-and-5 from Carr.
4.	DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	4	6	128	32.0	3	57	ATL
Hopkins had no receiving touchdowns this season entering this game. So that’s solved.
5.	Jamison Crowder	WAS	7	7	95	13.6	1	53	PHI
Five of Crowder’s catches moved the chains, and the other two each fell a yard short (and not on third downs).

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Cooper Kupp	LAR	4	10	21	5.2	0	-43	DAL
Kupp didn’t have a single catch which moved the chains, which is very rare for him. He caught three passes from Matthew Stafford and then just one from Brett Rypien, on five attempts from each.