Three punchouts in a non-save opp today for Ginkel. Paul Sewald is out for at least three weeks and he might not have a job to come back to. I do think Ginkel should be the main target in leagues where Abner Uribe is not available (Uribe should be first). Years ago, Ginkel was dubbed their ‘closer of the future’ and stunk in part-time MLB work until 2022. He was Arizona’s most consistent reliever last season posting a 2.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 27.6% K, 9.1% BB. He won’t be perfect, but he’s really good (and better than a healthy Sewald).
I swear I’m not trying to keep the price down – I don’t think Foley is the lone guy here. But it’s pretty clear it won’t be Alex Lange. Let’s call it Foley the 1A and Miller the 1B. Both should be included in any RP bid groups and Foley is worth > $100.
José Leclerc is off to a bumpy start but I don’t see Bruce Bochy pulling the rug from under him (see: José Alvarado coming right back in to notch the save today after a horrific relief appearance). It’s a long season and these real-life managers are MUCH more patient than us fantasy managers. I do think D-Rob is worth a bid though, I just won’t go nutty.
Look, another reliever I liked more than the incumbent closer. Kenley Jansen has had health issues all spring and now he wakes up with a bad back. I don’t think Martin jumps in and takes over right away here but I do think he eventually takes over. The Red Sox are still going to want to see Kenley have a good run as the closer so they can trade him at “top” value. Keep an eye on Justin Slaten too.
Honestly, it’s only a matter of time. Nats manager really loves him some Finnegan, but he have no choice but to give in sooner than later. If Harvey is hanging out there on your 12-team waiver wire, consider him in your RP bid group. Not over Uribe, Ginkel, Foley of course.
Others:
Despite Tyler Kinley having a much better spring than Justin Lawrence, usage patterns makes me believe Lawrence is the 1A here. But 1A of a bad situation is bad. I’m dropping Kinley in 15-teamers and only bidding Lawrence where absolutely desperate. Having a Rockies closer is always tough sledding because we really should avoid playing them at home. That’s tough to do when so many scheduled weeks line up as half-weeks at home.
Don’t drop Mason Miller because of his rough outing on Saturday. Hold as long as he’s healthy. Dany Jiménez will get some save opps though. But those won’t come very frequently.
STARTING PITCHERS
Okay, go ahead and bump that Jared Jones 12-team bid range up 2-3x from what I have below. Tough call on who to drop though if it’s not that clear for you. For example, I don’t think I’d drop Kenta Maeda or A.J. Puk for him, as crazy as it might seem.
Brady Singer looked FANTASTIC on Sunday. Is it finally happening? You can include him in 12-team SP bid groups, but towards the bottom because there is a TON of goodness to bid on in these OCs. He won’t line up for a 2-start week for another 3-4 weeks.
Don’t look now but Garrett Crochet is likely to pitch next weekend. Which means some of us have a tough decision as his first start is against the Braves. Our Drops & Disasters guy Mike Mager does have him on the disaster list and that was before the 2nd start popped up (@ KC). I just messaged Mike and he says he’s leaving Crochet on his list. As Mike told me, he’s “only starting aces against the Braves for now” and he’d move him from a 6 to a 5.5 on his Disaster Scale.
If you absolutely must drop A.J. Puk because someone awesome like Garrett Whitlock (my This Year’s Eflin) is out there. Don’t do it just because of his bad first outing. There are cases in a 12-team where you could but I’d hold if you can.
I know Joe Boyle gets two starts this week (v BOS, @ DET) and that he’s available in a ton of 15-teamers and that I didn’t list him in my article. Note I did that on purpose because though his stuff is filthy, he’s also very erratic quite often. Note, I can also be dead wrong and he throws two gems and earns two wins.
I did a double-take when Toby / BatFlip Crazy bid on and grabbed Colin Rea in our live Super Auction in Vegas. I am not a Rea guy, VDP didn’t like him, but I really respect Toby’s pitching gut, so I’ll mention him here. Note that he gets the Mariners next week then @ BAL the following week, so he won’t be expensive.
HITTERS
Queue the “Oswaldo Cabrera, Michael Scott It’s Happening GIF”. Guys, it’s not happening. It’s a hot weekend. Don’t spend more than $20-$30 for him. Same with Nick Martini, who may only play 4 of 6 this week. I do think you can ride hot hands and could land breakouts on occasion this way. I just wouldn’t pay a ton for it.
Trey Lipcomb is an interesting speculative add in 15-teamers. He looks like the everyday 3B for the Nationals with Nick Senzel out. Lipcomb hits ninth and is probably a dude you will be dropping a week or two from now. Don’t go bidding big on Connor Joe or Edward Olivares now. They played a bunch of lefties and will now face a bunch of righties.
I’m going to put in some ‘keep-em-honest’ bids on Victor Scott II but most of my teams have a nice set of speed guys and I have no desire to break the bank on him. That’s just me though. Scott is a much, much better baseball player and probably better at stealing bases than Esteury Ruiz. My lone issue is the fact that Edman/Carlson/Nootbaar will all be back soon. Nootbaar is pretty close. My one recommendation is to count up the total you’ll be spending in FAAB tonight if you got every player you wanted and see how you feel about how much money you have left with 25 or 26 more bidding periods to go. Again, it’s a looooong season.
Best of luck tonight!
——
Welcome to FTN’s weekly free agent bidding (FAAB) strategy column, Trust the Gut.
This article will be published every Saturday of the fantasy baseball season The update/addendum to Trust the Gut is released on Sundays, usually at least two hours before NFBC’s 10 p.m. ET deadline.
The goal of this article is to supplement our lineups with the best available hitters and pitchers each week. Though I focus primarily on NFBC leagues, the strategies and priority order of suggested players can be helpful on other sites such as ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fantrax and RT Sports.
The by-position list below is segmented into 15-team and 12-team leagues and grouped as follows:
Starting Pitchers
Relief Pitchers
Corner Infielders (1B + 3B)
Middle Infielders (2B + SS)
Outfielders
Catchers
Utility-only (when applicable)
Roster% refers to the percentage that players are currently rostered at within each format. For 15-team leagues, it’s the NFBC Main Event and for 12-team leagues, the RotoWire Online Championship (OC). These are mostly competitive national contests with an overall prize component.
This column will refer to a $1,000 FAAB budget. Divide by 10 for projected bid amounts if your league starts with a $100 budget (a $90 bid = $9).
Final note: There are generally two types of purposes for a free agent acquired via FAAB. One type is a player with upside and staying power – a player who represents a significant improvement to our rosters we hope can be a steadying and profitable presence in our lineups all season. The other is a streamer – players we rent for a week or two, hoping for an immediate statistical impact based on their advantageous upcoming schedule or a positive recent shift in their value.
Week 2 Overview
It’s a long season, my friends. Confirmation bias is strong early in the season and usually leads to massive overreactions. Call me crazy, but I’m not ready to jump ship on A.J. Puk because of a bad first start. Puk is a very good pitcher, he had a great spring, it was his first career start, and if he stays healthy, I think he figures things out. I can’t fault someone for wanting to drop him in a 12-teamer for say Victor Scott or Abner Uribe – especially since there are so many viable arms available in 12s. I also can’t fault someone for wanting to bench him in Week 2 (facing the Angels). It’s simply too early to jump ship on a guy who six days ago you had no problem drafting at a 200-215 ADP.
We have some phenomenal weekend coverage this season that should prove quite helpful in your fantasy baseball endeavors – this FAAB article is just a small part of it. Every weekend, we will have the following:
Mike Mager’s Drops and Disasters (recommended drops, disaster SPs to avoid)
Lucas Biery’s Weekly Hitting Primer
Eric Cross’ Weekly Pitching Primer
Weekly Projections
Though the new FTN website is about two weeks from launch, we are about ready to debut our projections model that will be helpful in FAAB, drop and start/sit decisions. The projections are derived from the FTN model (via our Chief Data Officer Frank Brank) – it has been wildly successful and accurate for betting and DFS over the last decade, and we will be formatting it for season-long fantasy baseball decisions. We might even give you different scoring periods to set parameters for (Mon-Sun, Mon-Thurs, Fri-Sun). These should serve as another set of data points for start/sit decisions along with Lucas and Eric’s articles.
As for this week’s FAAB, there is a lot to dig into. We’ll dive into the details below, but it should be quite clear already that the top targets are guys like Victor Scott (15- and 12-teamers), Abner Uribe (12s), Kevin Ginkel (15s) and Travis d’Arnaud (for folks who lost Sean Murphy).
Let’s get into it.
Schedule Notes
**green: home series, blue: away series
7 games
League
Team
Opponent (Games)
Opponent (Games)
AL
Chicago White Sox
3 v ATL
4 at KC
AL
Kansas City Royals
3 at BAL
4 v CHW
5 games
League
Team
Opponent (Games)
Opponent (Games)
NL
Minnesota Twins
2 at MLW
3 v CLE
AL
Milwaukee Brewers
2 v MIN
3 v SEA
Top-Ranked Schedules
Rank
Team
Total Games
Opponent (Games)
Opponent (Games)
1
Atlanta Braves
6
3 at CHW
3 v ARI
2
Baltimore Orioles
6
3 v KC
3 at PIT
3
Boston Red Sox
6
3 at OAK
3 at LAA
4
Tampa Bay Rays
6
3 v TEX
3 at COL
5
Los Angeles Dodgers
6
3 v SF
3 at CHC
6
Kansas City Royals
7
3 at BAL
4 v CHW
7
Colorado Rockies
6
3 at CHC
3 v TB
8
Chicago White Sox
7
3 v ATL
4 at KC
9
New York Mets
6
3 v DET
3 at CIN
10
Philadelphia Phillies
6
3 v CIN
3 at WAS
Platoon Splits
**Teams facing 4 or 5 RHP not listed; Handedness is of the opposing teams’ projected starting pitchers
For more matchup details, see Lucas Biery’s Weekly Hitting Primer, released on Sunday.
PITCHERS
* 15-team recommendations based on Roster% in the NFBC 15-team Main Event, 12-team recommendations based on Roster% in the NFBC 12-team Online Championship; only players currently rostered at 90% or less are listed below
Main Event drafters did a great job of scooping up all the value in drafts, which means very few viable options for us to bid on this Sunday. Seattle’s Emerson Hancock appears to be the most popular target for 15-team leagues, as he steps into the rotation temporarily for the injured Byran Woo. Hancock is the Mariners’ first-round draft pick from 2020. He steps in for a decent two-step on paper and could walk away with at least one win and minor ratio damage. The likelihood of every Mariners starter staying healthy for the full season is slim, which means Hancock could sneak in 15+ starts. If he is mediocre this week and Woo is on the way back soon, Hancock would be an easy drop.
Alec Marsh earned the Royals’ fifth rotation spot over veteran Jordan Lyles and Daniel Lynch with a strong exhibition season. Marsh has an intriguing four-pitch mix, pitched 74.1 major league innings and owned a 12.3% swinging-strike rate through eight starts and nine relief appearances. Marsh punched out 11 batters in his third career start (July 15, 2023 vs. TB) and struck out nine in back-to-back appearances in late August. Hopefully he can limit the damage against the Orioles in his first start.
Ronel Blanco and Kyle Gibson are two other two-start pitchers to consider, but I will be cautious. Blanco is only available in 14% of Main Events and will likely be started where rostered. Gibson had a 16:1 K:BB over four spring starts but allowed 13 runs (7.80 ERA). I have him listed here for those who like to live on the edge. I personally plan to avoid him.
Spencer Turnbull has a rotation spot for now and will have some good outings. His 39% will soar up over 80% this weekend, and the average winning bid will be much higher than the $10 max I’ve recommended. Consider this my Easter Egg (for those who actually read the article) where my actual recommended max bid is closer to $35.
Drew Smyly and Javier Assad are streamers against a horrendous Rockies offense that is even worse on the road. Smyly has served up bombs to RHHs at an above-average clip but will have a higher strikeout prop than Assad.
Jakob Junis was one of my preseason draft targets and among my highest-rostered players in NFBC Draft-and-Holds (50-round DCs). He wasn’t sharp in spring, but it might have been due to a minor shoulder injury that cropped up about a week ago. He has not yet been confirmed for Tuesday’s start, and there’s an outside chance he pitches on Sunday too. Don’t expect him to go five innings if he does pitch. I probably won’t bid on him this week, but he’s a guy I’ll be keeping an eye on.
We will have to go with our gut since we haven’t seen guys like Luis Gil, Tanner Houck, Chase Silseth and Max Meyer make a regular season start yet. Managing fringe starting pitchers in 12-teamers hoping to catch lightning in a bottle is one of the toughest things to do in fantasy baseball. Make sure to check out Mike Mager’s Drops & Disasters primer and keep an eye out for his Drops list (first article) on Sunday. I’ll be curious whether Mike includes A.J. Puk on his drop list in 12-teamers.
I’m taking a one-week victory lap with my heavy Garrett Crochet exposure, but I’m not going to push it by starting him against the Braves. I’ll still be rooting for him to throw a gem, even if it’s on my bench.
Won’t go into too much detail here on these pitchers, but do reach out in the FTN Discord if you have any specific questions about them.
We must be careful in making assumptions based on super early-season sample sizes about bullpen roles that are most likely to be fluid. Does Jason Foley (Tigers) and Abner Uribe (Brewers) earning their team’s first save opportunity (or opportunities) mean they are their team’s closers? Maybe, maybe not. For Detroit’s season-opener, the pre-game discussion involved a plan for Shelby Miller getting in there for a save opportunity if one would occur, but instead it was lights-out Foley. And what does this even mean for incumbent, Alex Lange? My guess is this situation might remain fairly fluid in the short term. Does that mean we shouldn’t be spending some coin on Foley hoping he takes the job for himself? It comes down to how each of us personally feel about it. Foley was already my favorite Tigers reliever target going during draft season, so I will be bidding where I feel I need a speculative saves guy. Even if we think he’s their best reliever and that “cream rises to the top,” it does not mean that Tigers management think he is best suited for the ninth. Note that Lange came into Saturday’s game in the seventh inning and walked two batters.
As for Uribe, he is converting his second consecutive save opportunity as I write this, and he looks filthy doing so, so there you probably have it. Congrats to those who invested in him, and I’m sure I’ll catch some of your victory laps on Twitter.
Sometimes GutLuck strikes swiftly, though there are always regrets of not enough shares and, of course, what can happen in the future. I’m referring to my full preseason fade of Paul Sewald and drafting Kevin Ginkel in the 29th round of my latest Main Event. I don’t want to make anyone who drafted Sewald feel worse than they already do. We all have our opinions and we’ll be right and wrong about a bunch of stuff. If Ginkel can notch a few saves this month, I’ll be thrilled, but if he can hold off Sewald when he returns, I’ll be ecstatic. This is baseball, it’s wild and unpredictable, so I’m never counting my chickens before they hatch – especially when we’re less than 3% through the fantasy season.
Is $300 too much for three months of saves? Abner Uribe will be quite popular and clearly looks like the guy. Is it possible he’s so good that Devin Williams doesn’t get his job back? Probably not. But Williams could also have setbacks or become a trade candidate (again) if Uribe proves he’s the man for the job.
José Alvarado’s 5-ER outing on Friday won’t cost him his job as one of the arms in Philadelphia’s closer committee, but consumer confidence should rightfully be weary with him – especially since this bullpen has a bevy of talented arms (including Jeff Hoffman) who could provide much more stability. I’m not opposed to managers dropping Alvarado in shallow leagues (12- and 10-team leagues), just don’t be mad if he rights his ship and earns the most saves on the team.
Though Robert Suarez’s job is safe (for now), Yuki Matsui really does look like one of the league’s top relievers and could eventually find his way into the role. Right now though, it’s tough to start someone who doesn’t get saves or starts in 12-team formats. I do believe he will be among the 10 best relievers in terms of ERA and WHIP this season, and I’m not wavering in my preseason projection of Matsui earning more saves than Suarez this season.
HITTERS
* 15-team recommendations based on Rostered-% in the NFBC 15-team Main Event, 12-team recommendations based on Roster-% in the NFBC 12-team Online Championship; only players currently rostered at 90% or less are listed below
We should mostly be in hold mode with corner infielders in 15-team leagues. Some will require 3B coverage for Royce Lewis, and hopefully that player is already on your roster because the viable options on free agent lists are slim. J.D. Davis would have flown under the radar in the remaining 16% of Main Events where available, but that changed after his 2-HR outing on Friday. Davis was set for short-side platoon duty with the Giants before they signed Matt Chapman. Davis was cut, joined the A’s and should be one of their best hitters. Both of Friday’s homers were against a lefty, and though that might seem par for the course with him, Davis’ career platoon splits are similar:
vs. LHP: 118 wRC, .188 ISO, .339 wOBA
vs. RHP: 114 wRC, .166 ISO, .335 wOBA
Davis hits sixth against righties and third against lefties. Next week, the A’s are slated to face all righties. Davis should be the top bid where available for teams with Lewis and no viable backup 3B, but I’d be careful spending too much as wisely streaming the position for cheap each week feels like the better way to go.
Elehuris Montero doesn’t have a hit through Friday but has been hitting the ball hard (101 mph EV, 75% HH, 25% Brl) and might play every day. The Rockies play two of their next four series in Coors Field. Montero is an advisable streamer when the Rockies face at least two LHP in a scoring period (M-Th, F-Su).
It’s not yet time to drop Jared Triolo, who has 20+ SB upside and a job. The lefty bat should play most of the week as the Pirates should face mostly righties.
Cavan Biggio should play against all RHPs, and the Blue Jays face a bunch of them the next two weeks. Biggio offers versatile positional flexibility and has looked so far this young season.
LaMonte Wade could find his way onto 100% of Main Event rosters, but not this week as he’s a tough stream for the Dodgers series.
The Dodgers will face 3-of-6 LHPs which makes Chris Taylor a low-priority Week 2 streamer.
Josh Bell can help Royce Lewis managers who have a 3B and can fill Bell in at CI. Bell has been locked into the two-hole between Luis Arraez and Bryan De La Cruz. That’s what I like to call embedded fantasy value based on lineup slot alone. The likelihood of the Marlins facing at least five lefty starters the next two weeks is a benefit for Bell who hit LHPs better (133 wRC+) than he hit righties (92 wRC+) last season.
Willi Castro should play most days with Lewis out and offers high upside with stolen bases. Castro provides NFBC coverage at third base and in the outfield. He earned 38.4% of the Twins stolen bases in 2023.
This is not a week to splurge at the position, and hopefully we don’t have to stream either. These are mostly guys we will be dropping in a week. Brayan Rocchio can steal bases, but he might have a tough time getting on base this week facing tough Mariners and Twins pitchers. The 23-year-old had a meager 16.4% hard-hit rate and no barrels in his first career 86 plate appearances last season.
Blaze Alexander might get bidding attention because of his first name alone. The reason to consider bidding, though, is the fact that he DH’s against left-handed starting pitchers, and the Diamondbacks might line up for 4-of-6 of them next week. After that, they face the Rockies in Colorado. Alexander could grab a start or two to give Geraldo Perdomo a rest at shortstop, but Perdomo is so solid defensively that he might not come out of the lineup.
J.P Crawford has 12-team fantasy value due to his lineup slot hitting in front of Julio Rodríguez at the top of the Mariners order. Crawford’s solo shot off Nick Pivetta in the sixth inning on Friday night was the only run in that game. Last season, Crawford set career-highs in runs (94), homers (19), RBI (65) and walk rate (14.7%).
Tim Anderson is off to a slow start, but I’m pretty sure he will get comfortable soon. Perhaps that’s this upcoming week as the Marlins are slated to face three lefties.
Vaughn Grissom is 100% rostered in 15-teamers and will soon have the same Roster% in 12-teamers. He is about 10 days away from coming off the IL to what will likely be the full-time 2B job in Boston.
José Caballero should be a bottom-of-the-Rays-lineup staple for the time being and will be a resourceful speed guy, though we’d have to time him properly as Caballero has massive batting average downside.
Orlando Arcia is on the Atlanta Braves, and that’s enough reason to include him in bid groups where one needs a middle infielder.
Well, it’s officially VS2 Week, and whether we think our rosters are short on stolen bases or not, we will feel that need for speed. Victor Scott stole 94 bases as a 22-year-old last season between A+ and Double-A. Despite a hot spring, Scott did not make the Cardinals initially, only when center fielder Dylan Carlson got hurt right before the season started. Unfortunately, that led to many VS2 drops in NFBC leagues. I won’t try to put salt in your ginger ale, but I do need to remind you of the downside: Scott could easily be sent back down to the minors when Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar return. All three are on track to return by May 1. Scott could certainly earn his spot, but it will be crowded when the other outfielders return. Masyn Winn and his excellent defense are locked in at shortstop, and Edman could spell Gorman at second base against LHPs. There will be bids over $300 on Scott, and I don’t think they will be worth it.
Oswaldo Cabrera is fantasy’s top hitter through the first two games. Cabrera hit a homer on Opening Day and went 4-for-5 on Friday night. The switch-hitter was in the lineup against both a lefty and righty and seems to have a starting job for now.
Nick Martini cranked two bombs on Opening Day. His average winning bid range could vary greatly based on how he performs on Sunday, as he is on the bench against a lefty on Saturday. Martini should get some run, as the Reds are short-handed without TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte and Matt McLain.
Brandon Marsh cranked a dinger off Spencer Strider on Opening Day. He’s on the strong side of the left field platoon where both Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache can cover. Marsh would be more of a long-term addition since he’s not a recommended play with 3-of-6 RHPs on tap next week.
Richie Palacios is a low-end streamer since the Rays go to Coors Field, but Palacios only plays against righties, which means he will play four games max this week. Don’t spend too much on him.
Charlie Blackmon and Michael Conforto both have full-season roster viability. The Giants have a tough schedule this week and are not advisable streamers.
Lawrence Butler should play most days (at least against RHPs) and could eventually have 15-team staying power, but he hits in the bottom third of a weak Oakland A’s lineup and there will be weeks where he is easily our top drop.
A few more names to consider in 12-team leagues including Mitch Haniger, Lars Nootbaar (back soon?), Austin Hays and Brenton Doyle. Haniger and Hays are must-bids for anyone in need of an outfielder. The next few weeks, the Orioles are going to face the Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers, Twins, Royals (again), Angels and Athletics.
Bad news for the Sean Murphy fantasy hive, as Murphy suffered an oblique injury on Friday and will be out of commission for a few weeks. Those who have lost him may want to consider getting aggressive on Travis d’Arnaud.
If you miss out on d’Arnaud, it’s basically shooting fish in a barrel. Bethancourt should play more than fellow backstop Nick Fortes because of the lefty-heavy schedule. The backstop split in Detroit is not straightforward, as both Carson Kelly and Jake Rogers hit lefty pitchers better. Ben Rortvedt might slowly start to mix in for more starts instead of Rays starting catcher René Pinto.
Much of the same for 12-team catcher options, but Connor Wong, René Pinto and Jake Rogers help ease the pressure of losing Murphy, albeit slightly. The Red Sox play the Angels each of the next two weekends, and the Angels have a lefty-tilted starting rotation.
I’ll be back for the Sunday Update. May you win all your bids by a dollar.
