Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to FTN’s NFL Model best bet. We use our incredible NFL data to find value in the betting markets.
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We’re back with another FTN NFL Model best bet for Week 11. The Texans almost sent us into orbit last Sunday night by blowing a 16-point halftime lead after getting shut out in the second half. Luckily, we covered by the hook as the Texans lost by three points. After that W, we now sit at 7-4 (+2.68x) for the season.
The biggest edge this week is a small home favorite. The New Orleans Saints opened at -2.5, but the Cleveland Browns have gotten bet early by 1-1.5 points. We’ll take the better number on the Saints, as the FTN model has New Orleans winning by about a touchdown, for an 11.33% edge.
2024 DVOA:
Overall
Cleveland Browns: 31
New Orleans Saints: 20
Offense
Cleveland Browns: 32
New Orleans Saints: 20
Defense
Cleveland Browns: 18
New Orleans Saints: 23
Best Bet
Saints -1 (-105, Caesars)
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