Team Total DVOA DAVE Offensive DVOA Defensive DVOA Adjusted Line Yards Defense vs Receiver Special Teams DVOA DVOA Game Projections NFL Drive Stats NFL Time of Possession

DAVE

DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early

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DAVE EXPLAINED

Early in the season, there’s only a small sample size for DVOA and you don’t want to depend on just a couple of games of data to judge how good teams are going to be for the rest of the year. That’s why we use a stat called DAVE. Technically, it stands for “DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early.” In reality, we called it Dave because our stats were a mess of alphabet soup and we told people, “It’s not like we could just call a stat ‘Dave’.”

DAVE combines our preseason projections with DVOA up to that point in the season. The weights change with the in-season DVOA becoming more important each week. DAVE lasts longer than you might expect. The preseason projections are still being included as 50% of DAVE at midseason and we do not stop using DAVE until we get 13 games into the season.

We use DAVE instead of just DVOA for things like the playoff odds simulation and in-season game picks.