Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The FTN moneyline underdogs are barking loud and proud.
In Week 9, we pulled a David Copperfield-esque escape by selecting the only underdog to win outright when Carolina upset the Saints, 23-22. Last week, the Steelers got to the window with a fantastic +134 outright win at Washington. Ready for three in a row?
Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.
There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 11 of the 2024 season.
Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Steelers +3 vs. Ravens
(+145, DraftKings Sportsbook)
If you are an FTNFantasy subscriber, you knew back in March to bet the over on the Steelers’ silly preseason win total of 7.5. Pittsburgh is an impressive 7-2 and sits atop the AFC North, one game ahead of this week’s opponent, Baltimore. Playing at home, with a chance to take hold of one of the NFL’s toughest divisions, I expect a maximum effort from Blitzberg.
The biggest advantage in this matchup is the Pittsburgh offense against the Baltimore defense. The Ravens defense has been … well, bad. The Ravens rank a mediocre 16th in defensive DVOA including 25th against the pass. They were just torched at home by Joe Burrow and the Bengals for 428 passing yards and four touchdowns. That was at home, against a passing attack with one wide receiver of significance. Over the last six weeks, the Ravens have allowed 23 or more points five times, and 29 or more points four times. Baltimore ranks fourth in total team sacks (31) but is dead last in yards allowed per game (294.9). They are a feast or famine defense.
That’s a concerning trend when facing a Steelers defense that ranks 10th in DVOA and is always tough at home. Pittsburgh is averaging 3.0 sacks per game at home, and Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is a very different quarterback under pressure. Per our FTN StatsHub, Jackson is just 15th in completion rate under pressure (50.7%) but ninth overall (69.1%).
The Ravens’ success is built on their rushing attack, but Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (87.1). The Steelers are 7-1 SU against the Ravens in their last eight matchups, because they can always stifle the Ravens ground game. That puts more pressure on Jackson to make plays, which has been a challenge against Pittsburgh his entire career. Using our FTN Splits Tool, Jackson has been worse than his career average in every offensive category against Pittsburgh, including interceptions.
Finally, Mike Tomlin has been superb as a home underdog over his 18-year career with the Steelers. Per John Ewing at BetMGM, Tomlin is cashing as a home underdog 77% of the time.
With only a three-point spread, I’m betting Tomlin pulls the outright win against his archrivals yet again. Back-to-back Steelers ML underdog plays? Sounds good to me at +145 odds on DraftKings.
Risk
1 Unit to Win 1.45 Units
