Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (2/29)

Spring training is a wild time for fantasy baseball players, as we see considerable overreactions to tiny sample sizes, changes in player value due to velocity jumps or drops and other big swings.

So as we head toward the start of the 2024 MLB season, we’re going to go around all the news from baseball to analyze what matters for fantasy. We aim to cover notable news, value changes or other valuable nuggets. We’ve got you covered!

2024 Fantasy Baseball Spring Training Roundup (2/29)

AL East

Baltimore Orioles: Cade Povich (SP)

The Jorge López trade just keeps getting worse for the Twins, as another key piece of that trade ascends toward MLB relevancy. With the injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means opening up a couple of spots in the rotation, Cade Povich has a chance to show he can get the ball over the plate enough to warrant a big-league job, possibly even break camp in Baltimore. The strikeout ability has never been in question – Povich has been north of a 25% K rate at every stop along the minors, it is the equally consistent double-digit BB% that warrants some pause. If he can build on his extremely solid 2 innings against mainly Rays regulars, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that he pitches himself into a rotation spot. 

Tampa Bay Rays: Junior Caminero (3B/SS)

Junior Caminero hit his first spring homer, and it will almost certainly not be his last. A hitting machine who just needed the slightest of opportunity for regular playing time gets it in a big way filling the void vacated by Wander Franco. He is by no means an industry secret, but it does feel as though the industry does not fully appreciate the ceiling his hit and power tools combine for. One to watch closely throughout the spring, and almost certainly an ADP riser the more he hits bombs like this one.

New York Yankees: Nestor Cortes (SP)

The good news for Nestor Cortes is that he came out of his first spring training start unscathed, at least from a health perspective. The performance results were a bit more mixed, as he allowed something like 25 hits (OK fine, only 7) but also struck out 4 in his 2.2 innings of work. Looking under the hood a bit, his velocity and movement were looking quite good and should be a sign of good things to come as he regains his 2022 form.

Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah (SP), Orelvis Martinez (3B/SS)

Good news first for Alek Manoah — he is demonstrably skinnier. I’m not sure that means he will be any better. In his start against the Tigers Tuesday, he did not complete his second inning of work and gave up three hits, one walk and 3 HBPs that eventually turned into four earned runs, and that combined with zero strikeouts is sort of the beginning of cause for concern, even if it is just a single start. Something to keep an eye on if you are not already fading, and probably lower your target price if you’re trying to catch the falling knife.

As for Orelvis Martinez, the guy can flat-out rake, and despite having bounced up and down top prospect lists for 3 years now, he is still just 22 and will play the entire 2024 season at this age. On Tuesday he produced a loud bases-clearing double with a 111.2 EV, which should not come as a surprise if you’ve been following his journey as a prospect – power is sort of his jam. Still, he’s been inconsistent in the minor leagues about contact, and we’ll need to see how his approach fares against big-league pitching and facsimile thereof in spring training.

Boston Red Sox: Jordan Montgomery (SP)

The Red Sox, as of this publication, still have not signed Jordan Montgomery. No one really knows why, and the two sides seem to like each other. Perhaps we are waiting for a Blake Snell deal to materialize. Perhaps the Red Sox know they are at best the fourth-best team in their division and so signing a Boras client to a multi-year deal seems unappealing. Whatever the case, Montgomery is still looking for a home. 

AL Central

Minnesota Twins: Manuel Margot (OF)

The Twins sent a glove-first prospect to the Dodgers to acquire Manuel Margot, who is slightly more likely to see regular playing time on the Twins, although with the new team’s heavy platoon tendencies, it is still complicated to ascertain just how many PAs Margot ought to be projected for. He’s never really been a full-time bat, and although he has historically exhibited higher exit velocities when he has the platoon advantage, I don’t know that he is the best fit for a short side of a platoon. It will be interesting to see how the Twins deploy him given all of their young and versatile talent.

Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter (OF)

Have you ever wondered what a left-handed Giancarlo Stanton swing would look like? Wonder no more:

While Chase DeLauter has an ADP in the 600s and is at best a fringe opportunity to contribute meaningfully early this season, if he’s able to maintain this kind of power to go along with his renowned ability for contact, the Guardians will be forced to look at giving some of Myles Straw’s PAs to him.

Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize (SP), Jack Flaherty (SP), Tarik Skubal (SP)

Last week it was Tarik Skubal making the rounds on social media with elevated velocity (more of this again this week), this week the social media darling was Casey Mize, back from injury and impressing underneath the hood, even if the surface results were not as impressive. Mize has not been the most prolific misser of bats nor has he been particularly close to cracking triple digits on radar guns with any consistency, but getting velocity up to 97 was a very positive sign for the 26-year-old righty we haven’t seen since 2022. 

As for Jack Flaherty, new surroundings may do him some good. He was solid in one inning of work Monday and will look to build on that.

I am massively here for the Tarik Skubal helium. If this velocity is sustainable, he’s a legit top-five SP. Buy now, particularly at his fourth-round ADP.

Chicago White Sox: Bailey Horn (RP)

Bailey Horn was originally a White Sox fifth-round draft pick and returns to the South Side in an interesting spot, as there is no clear bullpen pecking order defined, nor are there expected to be an abundance of high-leverage opportunities. Still, it’s worthwhile to note that the White Sox presumably know what they have in Horn and are pursuing him anyhow, so it wouldn’t be the craziest thing if Horn is the RP that emerges from the chaos with the title of closer. He is undrafted even in DCs right now, so with a 50th-round flier, there are worse things you could do.

AL West

Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter (SP)

The Jack Leiter Watch continues, and the young right-hander got two innings in a non-starting appearance Tuesday, something we don’t always see in spring training. It’s clear that Bruce Bochy wants to get an extended look at Leiter, and after a rocky first inning, Leiter calmed down and threw a clean second inning. Overall, despite the mixed surface results, we look at this as a positive outing for Leiter and keep his arrow steady, if not pointing slightly upward. He’s in the 730 range in ADP so he’s another late-round flier opportunity for a team that clearly believes he has talent that can be unlocked. 

Houston Astros: Spencer Arrighetti (SP)

The pitching factory that churns out long, athletic Astros pitchers may have another one in Spencer Arrighetti, who despite being a bit of a late bloomer having not cracked the show at 24, dazzled in his 2 innings Monday, striking out three and only allowing a single hit. The Astros are not short on pitching talent of course, but when the injury bug inevitably hits, it is nice to know that there are fresh young arms like Arrighetti waiting to be called upon.

Joe Espada had this to say:

Seattle Mariners: George Kirby (SP), Matt Brash (RP)

Pretty rocky start to spring training for George Kirby, who was the victim of bad defense and then victim of the long ball, as is so often the case. Likely a nothingburger, but we’ll still want to see him rebound after giving up a grand slam to freaking Patrick Bailey of all people.

The news for Matt Brash on the other hand should not be brushed off as easily… it appears his season may be in jeopardy and at minimum a large portion thereof. Not great! Full fade in drafts until there is some clarity, as well as some additional job security for Andrés Muñoz.

Los Angeles Angels: Robert Stephenson (RP)

The one piece of the Angels bullpen who might actually be somewhat useful (no, not you, Carlos Estévez!) is dealing with some shoulder soreness, and while Robert Stephenson is still playing catch and not shut down entirely, it is not what you want.

Oakland A’s: Mason Miller (RP), Luis Medina (SP)

Mason Miller is going to be utilized out of the bullpen to start the season. That much we knew already, but it also sounds like he won’t be in the closer role, or at least not exclusively, as he gets ramped up. It doesn’t matter a ton, as the A’s will find themselves with a paltry few save opportunities if they did have an anointed closer, so the whole scenario is a pretty easy stay-away spot.

One bright spot of interest in the A’s rotation is Luis Medina, who had an impressive stretch last season and is yet another live arm showing a massive increase in velocity this spring. Comes cheap in DCs with an ADP of 611 so not much risk in getting some exposure in case there’s something sustainable here.

NL East

Atlanta Braves: Ken Giles (RP), AJ Smith-Shawver (SP)

Remember Ken Giles? Well it seems as though the Braves have made him good again, because of course they have. He’s going undrafted in DCs. and while Raisel Iglesias is firmly entrenched in the closer role, he’s also not the most reliably healthy closer.

We primarily stan Hurston Waldrep in these parts, but the man he’s competing against, AJ Smith-Shawver, is up a couple ticks of velo in the early going, hitting 99 multiple times in his spring debut. He also got tagged for HRs by both J.T. Realmuto JT Realmuto and Alec Bohm, so there’s certainly room to improve, but his spring performance (especially in comparison to Waldrep) will be one to watch. 

New York Mets: Drew Gilbert (OF)

Some good news for a change for Mets fans, instead of the inevitable pitcher injury news. Drew Gilbert has looked great this spring, punctuating a recent two-strike bases-loaded PA with a run-scoring single on an excellent piece of hitting, keeping his weight back and letting the game come to him. I sound like my high school hitting coach. Makes me feel young again. Or really old, not sure which. Anyway, Drew Gilbert! Yay!

Washington Nationals: James Wood (OF), Dylan Crews (OF)

It’s hard not to be excited about these guys, and Nationals fans have been looking for reasons to be excited for a few years now. I’m sure you saw James Wood’s mammoth HR Saturday (he hit another Sunday), but did you also see him ground out to short get an infield hit on a routine grounder to short?

As for Dylan Crews, he got his first hit Tuesday, and it was a clutch 2-run double. Followed that up with another hit and his second SB of the spring Wednesday. The future is looking bright in DC, at least for the baseball team (we cannot say the same about the basketball, football or hockey teams, and I’ll reserve my comments on the government).

NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Matt McLain (2B)

Matt McLain oblique watch appears to be taking the Gunnar Henderson path, which is what we want to see. Get the fifth-round ADP while you can.

St. Louis Cardinals: Iván Herrera (C), Brandon Crawford (SS)

If we weren’t already certain Iván Herrera was going to be the backup to Willson Contreras, we now have enough info to be pretty confident in that belief. What remains to be seen is how the playing time shakes out with regard to the actual split between Contreras and Herrera is, given the ease with which Contreras could be deployed at DH with a capable backstop in Herrera. At a 446 ADP and a hitting skill set that should be neutral at worst, Herrera is a viable option as a third catcher in DCs. 

The Cardinals also signed longtime Giant Brandon Crawford, which will be an odd sight for some, but a savvy roster construction move the Cardinals to take some of the pressure off Masyn Winn and add a tremendous clubhouse presence to go along with a capable and at times, clutch LHB off the bench. 

Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick (OF/3B?)

Consider me a Sal Frelick enthusiast. He has somewhat of a light-hitting profile, which is a concern, but the guy just makes plays and gets things done. After starting the first two games of the spring at third, he made his next start in RF and made the play in the clip below robbing Mike Trout of extra bases. He’s also hitting over .400 with 2 SBs so far in the young spring season. There are guys that just find their way to the field, and those guys put up counting stats and outperform their ADP (in Frelick’s case, 291).

Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B), Termarr Johnson (2B)

There’s been a lot of talk about Ke’Bryan Hayes having fixed his bat path/launch angle problems, and he’s shown those improvements with aplomb so far this spring but was able to deliver most emphatically Tuesday with a mammoth grand slam. Count me among the Hayes believers, even if the Pirates team context is pretty awful, I’m in on a 12th-round ADP.

If there’s anyone who is having a more impressive spring than Hayes, it’s Termarr Johnson, who is doing it as a 19-year-old. The 2022 No. 4 overall pick got off to a bit of a slow start last year, and after having been thought of as more of a contact first prospect, set out to prove that the power would develop as well. So far this spring, it’s safe to say that the power has, well, developed. Let Termarr show you.

NL West

San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (SP)

Look, it was understandable when Joe Musgrove went out and got shelled by the Dodgers on the opening day of spring training, the Dodgers are ridiculous and had a number of starters in the lineup for that one. Many pitchers will have bad games against the Dodgers. I’m a little more concerned by a similarly disastrous outing against the Guardians, including giving up a double to light-hitting leadoff hitter Steven Kwan and a HR to non-hitting catcher David Fry. Maybe he’s just in the arena trying stuff but man, is it not working. Probably a pass for me at current seventh-round ADP.

San Francisco Giants: Keaton Winn (SP), Tristan Beck (SP), Jordan Hicks (SP), Nick Ahmed (SS)

The best update here is for Jordan Hicks, and it is because he is not injured, simply got demolished by the Mariners in his first spring training start. He did get some K’s and came out of the game healthy, though!

As for Winn and Beck, they are hurt, the Giants still only have three healthy SPs, the season starts in a month, and Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still available. As literally everyone has been pointing out.

Finally, instead of signing Brandon Crawford for one more season, the Giants let Crawford go to a historic rival in the Cardinals and signed a worse version of Crawford in Nick Ahmed. Pitchforks aplenty are gathering around the Giants front office as you read this. As usual, Baggs says it best:

Los Angeles Dodgers: You Know Who

Shohei Ohtani is back and homered to the opposite field on a ridiculous swing that looked like a lazy flyball that might be caught by a backpedaling shortstop. You’ve seen the clip. If you haven’t seen the clip here’s the clip. Also, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an unstoppable cyborg sent to lay waste to every hitter he faces. The Dodgers man. So scary.

Colorado Rockies: The 6-Man Platoon (Baseball’s Human Centipede?)

If you thought the Giants and Twins were obnoxious with the gimmicky platoon stuff they do, you are really not going to like what the Rockies are going to do with their 1B, RF and DH spots. This goes into way more detail than you could ever want to know, but basically Kris Bryant is going to play a lot and everyone else is some degree of bad but the Rockies also need to fill out a nine-man lineup every day so they are going to hope someone ends up being good on accident. Or something. Anyway, I’ve never been more out on a team than this year’s Rockies, and it is so immensely dumb and wasteful that the Rockies are the ones who get to play at the Rockies launch pad of a stadium.