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Rashee Rice an Early Chiefs Surprise in Route DVOA

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You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably a better measurement of receiver quality and it’s definitely more consistent and predictive from year to year.

We don’t yet have all our methods streamlined enough to update Route DVOA automatically after each week’s games, but I have been putting it together once I get the FTN Data charting of routes run. My plan was to share the numbers with all of you readers after every six weeks. But I found myself with some extra time this week, so we’ll share numbers now. Next week, we’ll look at Route DVOA for defenses vs. types of receivers instead.

There are a couple of differences between this Route DVOA and what I did in the preseason from past years. First of all, thanks to FTN Data, I have actual routes run! No need for estimates. Now I’m not counting when a receiver is in the game but, for example, blocks for a screen to a different receiver. This means we can also produce Route DVOA for tight ends and running backs, not just wide receivers. The second change is that the work I did in the preseason only looked at passes with intended receivers, which is what counts in regular receiving DVOA. This new version of Route DVOA also incorporates routes run on sacks, scrambles, and passes thrown away with no intended receiver.

We’re still not at the point where we can adjust the value per route for which personnel grouping is on offense, but I’m hoping to do that in the near future.

Wide Receivers Through Week 5, 2023

There’s a couple of ways to look at these stats. We’ve got Route DVOA, or value per route. We’ve got Route DYAR, or total value based on routes. The player ranks are closer than they are for normal receiving DVOA, but not exactly the same. We can also look at the difference between a player’s regular receiving DVOA and his Route DVOA. To do this, I use z-scores, because Route DVOA has a wider scale than regular receiving DVOA. Z-scores look at the difference in standard deviations over average for each metric

OK, let’s take a look at the numbers. It is probably no shock that Tyreek Hill is leading the league in both Route DVOA and Route DYAR. Hill led the league in these stats in 2022 and he’s probably having an even better season this year. Hill stands out because he just doesn’t run as many routes as other No. 1 wide receivers. So his efficiency with the routes he does run is absurd. I have him down with 4.75 yards per route run, although this may differ from numbers you find elsewhere on FTN because of slight differences in counting routes (and because I add in DPI yardage, although Hill doesn’t have any of that yet). The only other receiver over 3.25 yards per route run is Brandon Aiyuk at 4.20.

The surprising name in here is Rashee Rice, the rookie receiver in Kansas City. He barely makes my minimum to be ranked, with 24 targets and only 65 routes, but he’s been targeted on a higher percentage of routes than any other wide receiver in the league. (These numbers do not include last night’s game against Denver.) Rice is third in Route DVOA and 18th in Route DYAR, which is really high despite the lack of usage. The Chiefs absolutely need to use him more and, in fact, started using him more last night, as he had four catches for 72 yards.

My minimum to be ranked here is 100 routes or 20 targets. First, here’s a look at the top wide receivers.

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
Tyreek Hill MIA 148.8% 1 404 1 137 36% 4.75
Brandon Aiyuk SF 131.1% 2 234 9 90 30% 4.20
Rashee Rice KC 101.9% 3 132 18 65 37% 2.66
Stefon Diggs BUF 89.0% 4 324 2 180 29% 3.27
Davante Adams LV 87.6% 5 313 4 175 32% 2.67
Keenan Allen LAC 77.4% 6 240 8 149 30% 3.00
A.J. Brown PHI 74.0% 7 279 6 180 29% 3.11
Mike Evans TB 71.8% 8 164 14 106 30% 3.25
Ja’Marr Chase CIN 68.1% 9 315 3 214 29% 2.39
Justin Jefferson MIN 66.3% 10 285 5 200 27% 2.91
Nico Collins HOU 66.2% 11 215 11 153 24% 3.05
DeAndre Hopkins TEN 59.2% 12 172 13 137 31% 2.60

It’s also worth noting rookie Puka Nacua of the Rams, who ranks seventh in Route DYAR and 14th in Route DVOA.

Here are the bottom qualifying wide receivers.

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
Darnell Mooney CHI -57.7% 86 -107 83 135 12% 0.77
Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE -57.5% 85 -104 82 135 10% 0.56
Van Jefferson LAR -56.9% 84 -125 86 159 9% 0.68
Jalin Hyatt NYG -56.6% 83 -77 78 101 5% 0.98
Rondale Moore ARI -56.1% 82 -98 80 128 13% 0.63
Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA -53.7% 81 -65 75 94 21% 0.66
Alec Pierce IND -48.1% 80 -109 84 176 10% 0.80
Jahan Dotson WAS -45.7% 79 -118 85 200 15% 0.70
Parris Campbell NYG -45.2% 78 -62 74 111 21% 0.77
Brandin Cooks DAL -43.5% 77 -59 71 105 19% 1.05

Jalin Hyatt has five targets this year. FIVE! Maybe the Giants should consider trying to throw to him a little bit more?

Here are some players who do better in Route DVOA than regular DVOA. The first one is a particular surprise.

And some players who really decline when we use Route DVOA:

Tight Ends Through Week 5, 2023

For both running backs and tight ends, I’m using a minimum of 50 routes or 10 targets to be ranked. Here are the top tight ends:

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
Andrew Ogletree IND 126.1% 1 65 10 33 30% 2.88
Travis Kelce KC 95.5% 2 161 1 104 36% 2.13
Sam LaPorta DET 67.3% 3 140 2 128 24% 2.26
Noah Fant SEA 54.0% 4 55 12 61 18% 2.62
Cole Kmet CHI 43.7% 5 97 4 129 23% 1.87
Mark Andrews BAL 43.3% 6 99 3 131 21% 1.72
George Kittle SF 43.1% 7 89 5 119 19% 1.81
Jonnu Smith ATL 39.5% 8 77 7 114 24% 2.16
Donald Parham LAC 37.4% 9 41 15 57 16% 0.65
Jake Ferguson DAL 36.2% 10 72 8 107 26% 1.64
Tre McBride ARI 32.7% 11 29 19 46 22% 1.72
Darren Waller NYG 23.4% 12 80 6 179 20% 1.46

Smith and Ferguson, in particular, get a jump from regular receiving DVOA to Route DVOA. Now here are the tight ends on the bottom:

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
Austin Hooper LV -66.0% 48 -85 48 94 7% 0.66
Taysom Hill NO -59.2% 47 -40 44 52 12% 0.31
Irv Smith CIN -45.9% 46 -54 45 89 11% 0.43
Michael Mayer LV -40.1% 45 -34 42 70 7% 0.59
Daniel Bellinger NYG -39.1% 44 -24 39 53 8% 0.42
Juwan Johnson NO -37.7% 43 -37 43 81 15% 0.75
Adam Trautman DEN -37.6% 42 -64 47 140 10% 0.43
Dawson Knox BUF -37.0% 41 -57 46 127 14% 0.59
Pat Freiermuth PIT -26.9% 40 -28 41 95 14% 0.56
David Njoku CLE -20.4% 39 -23 38 121 15% 1.14

Maybe the Raiders want to try throwing to the tight ends a little more? Assuming they can get open. I’m surprised to see Taysom Hill here, because he’s always had very good receiving stats by regular receiving DVOA. (He doesn’t this year, though, with just 16 yards on six targets.)

Kelce, who ranks only 13th in regular receiving DVOA, is the big winner with Route DVOA. That makes a lot of sense, he earns a lot of targets. Cole Turner of Washington also takes a surprisingly big jump with Route DVOA, from -18.0% to 18.6%. Among the big falls with Route DVOA: C.J. Uzomah of the Jets goes from 30.1% to -19.9% and Durham Smythe of the Dolphins goes from 20.5% to -15.8%.

 

Running Backs Through Week 5, 2023

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
De’Von Achane MIA 86.8% 1 69 6 52 21% 1.29
Jaylen Warren PIT 85.0% 2 92 3 76 33% 2.18
Christian McCaffrey SF 76.8% 3 125 1 106 23% 1.58
Josh Jacobs LV 64.9% 4 107 2 101 30% 1.91
Derrick Henry TEN 64.7% 5 42 10 41 27% 2.46
Samaje Perine DEN 62.7% 6 86 4 84 21% 2.00
Jerome Ford CLE 43.7% 7 50 7 75 17% 1.03
Alvin Kamara NO 43.0% 8 29 15 38 45% 1.32
Jahmyr Gibbs DET 38.3% 9 40 12 61 30% 1.15
Jerick McKinnon KC 36.2% 10 43 9 64 19% 1.11
Ameer Abdullah LV 35.7% 11 20 20 35 29% 1.31
Bijan Robinson ATL 33.0% 12 86 5 145 17% 1.01

Alvin Kamara, in particular, has a huge difference between his regular receiving DVOA and his Route DVOA. He ranks 37 in receiving DVOA at -32.9%, but Route DVOA recognizes how often he earns a target on his routes. Gibbs also has a huge difference, going from -17.8% receiving DVOA to 38.3% Route DVOA.

Here are the running backs at the bottom:

Player Team Route
DVOA
Rank Route
DYAR
Rank Routes Tgt
Rate
Yd/RR
Ezekiel Elliott NE -42.8% 50 -23 45 64 23% 0.69
Najee Harris PIT -42.8% 49 -26 48 65 14% 0.57
Matt Breida NYG -42.8% 48 -32 50 86 12% 0.57
AJ Dillon GB -40.1% 47 -25 46 78 8% 0.32
Tyler Allgeier ATL -33.9% 46 -14 41 51 18% 0.63
Rachaad White TB -32.0% 45 -26 47 105 12% 0.82
Devin Singletary HOU -31.6% 44 -14 42 57 9% 0.44
Joe Mixon CIN -31.3% 43 -28 49 113 15% 0.71
Michael Carter NYJ -30.4% 42 -15 43 68 16% 0.65
Antonio Gibson WAS -27.9% 41 -22 44 119 13% 1.11

The running back with the biggest drop from regular receiving DVOA to Route DVOA is San Francisco fullback Kyle Juszczyk. He has been targeted just five times on 62 routes, so he ends up going from 90.9% DVOA to 10.3% Route DVOA. Zack Moss of the Colts also takes a big drop from 27.9% receiving DVOA to -12.6% Route DVOA.

Next week, I’ll take a look at what it means to run DVOA by route for defenses against specific types of receivers, and how that differs from our usual receiving defense against types of receivers. And then we’ll update Route DVOA again after Week 12 to see how receivers are doing when we consider how often they get targeted per route.

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