Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With all the high-powered offenses emerging throughout the league, more and more wide receivers are becoming fantasy viable. On the flip side, there are still those teams that struggle to produce any viable options.
Avoiding these players can help you significantly, especially in PPR formats. With that in mind, I have compiled a list of six wide receiving corps that I am mostly avoiding this season.
Atlanta Falcons
(Drake London, Bryan Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, Auden Tate)
Since Arthur Smith took over last offseason, the Falcons have been going through a transitional period. In this, they have lost a lot of talent at the wide receiver position, as Julio Jones was traded and Russell Gage left in free agency. Additionally, Calvin Ridley is currently serving a year-long suspension for gambling. The Falcons have used back-to-back first-round picks on weapons for the passing game, selecting generational tight end Kyle Pitts last year and following it up with wide receiver Drake London this spring. Both players ooze elite potential, but they need time to mature into their roles. On the flip side, after these two players, we see a significant dropoff in talent in Olamide Zaccheaus and Frank Darby. The Falcons brought in Auden Tate, Damiere Byrd, Geronimo Allison and Khadarel Hodge while trading for Bryan Edwards to bolster this position. Even with all of these additions, this group is one of the weakest in the NFL.
Additionally, the Falcons moved on from Matt Ryan and brought in former first-rounder Marcus Mariota. This is a significant downgrade for the passing game. Mariota has never topped 3,500 passing yards or 26 touchdowns in a season. This move, on top of the additions of Damien Williams and Tyler Allgeier at running back, makes me believe we will see a team that prioritizes the run more this year. There will be limited opportunities in the passing game, making it hard for anyone to make a fantasy impact. If any of them do, it’s likely Pitts, who was featured last season. He saw 110 targets and caught 68 of them while producing 1,026 yards and one touchdown. This makes it likely that not a single wide receiver finishes inside the top 36 in fantasy. I am just cutting my losses and letting my league mates draft them instead.
Chicago Bears
(Darnell Mooney, Byron Pringle, Velus Jones Jr., N’Keal Harry)
One of the biggest surprises this offseason was the lack of care the Bears showed in addressing their wide receiver position, especially after Allen Robinson left in free agency. We did see Darnell Mooney rise to stardom last season, posting his first 1,000-yard season, but outside of him, no wide receiver produced over 425 yards. Due to this lack of production, it made so much sense to address this position and help out still developing second-year quarterback Justin Fields. They chose to do this through the additions of multiple unproven talents, including Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, Tajae Sharpe, N’Keal Harry and David Moore. Along with this, they drafted speedster Velus Jones Jr. in the third round, which was considered a head-scratching move with more productive college receivers on the board.
With new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy in command of the offense, it will look drastically different in 2022. He has stated the offense will be similar to the 49ers’ style of play, with wide zone blocking and a heavy lean on the running game. Because of that, it’s easy to see how this offense will depend on David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert this season. Last season, the Bears offense produced 18.3 points per game, which ranked in the bottom 10 among NFL offenses. With a similar roster to the one they trotted out last season, it is likely the offense struggles yet again, making it difficult for any player to find fantasy relevance. I am avoiding the Bears wide receivers unless your name is Darnell Mooney – even then, I am proceeding with caution.
New York Giants
(Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, Sterling Shepard, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton)
The Giants devoted a lot of resources to the wide receiver room the past few seasons, bringing in Kenny Golladay, drafting Kadarius Toney in 2021 and drafting Wan’Dale Robinson this spring. However, both Toney and Golladay failed to finish inside the top 75 PPR scorers last season, mostly due to injuries, as both players missed three or more games. Toney did have one 29.6-point performance in Week 5 but then struggled to stay on the field the rest of the year. This offseason, the Giants addressed the offensive line to help Daniel Jones stay up long enough to get the ball to his weapons. On the flip side, we have to wonder if his weapons will be available. Sterling Shepard, Golladay, Toney and Darius Slayton all missed significant time last season.
With Brian Daboll now at head coach, there is a lot of optimism surrounding the new-look offense, especially with all the pre-snap motion – something the Giants have lacked in the past. Although I believe Daboll can turn this offense around, I think it’s more than a year away. It seems likely that the Giants lean heavily on Saquon Barkley, even in the passing game, to get the ball out of Jones’ hands quickly. Additionally, Toney and Robinson could benefit from this, but I don’t trust either to stay productive all season, as the ball will get spread evenly throughout the offense. I believe all the Giants wide receivers will finish outside the top 50 in PPR scoring this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
(Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault)
This offseason, the Jaguars devoted a good portion of their money to the wide receiver position, bringing in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and retaining Laquon Treadwell. That helps round out a wide receiver room that already contains Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault. On the flip side, these additions have failed to produce a 1,000-yard season or score more than seven touchdowns in a season. The highest fantasy finish from any of them was Kirk last year when he finished as WR26 in PPR scoring with the Cardinals. This doesn’t leave me feeling overly confident in any of them as fantasy assets, especially on a team that struggled to score last year, finishing last in the league in points per game (14.9).
This season, many hope Trevor Lawrence will make a significant jump in development and show us why he was called a generational talent. To aid in this, the Jaguars brought in Doug Pederson as head coach, creating a lot of optimism around the team and offense. However, in Pederson’s eight seasons of coaching, where he had five straight seasons of top-15 passing attempt offenses, he has only produced one top-10 passing yard season (2018) and one top-10 passing touchdown season (2017). For this, and the lack of proven production from the wide receiver room, I am steering clear of the Jaguars wide receivers in fantasy.
Cleveland Browns
(Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, David Bell, Anthony Schwartz)
Seeing the Browns on this list may not be a surprise, but with the addition of Deshaun Watson this offseason, there was optimism that the Browns offense could be more explosive this year. Unfortunately, Watson’s off the field issues have caught up to him, and currently, he is facing at least a six-game suspension and possibly more. As a result, the Browns wide receiver room of Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Bell will struggle in 2022. If Watson does not play, the Browns will be forced to start Jacoby Brissett, who has never eclipsed 3,100 yards passing in a season. In his two full seasons, T.Y. Hilton was his highest finishing wide receiver as WR27 in PPR scoring (2017).
Without Watson, it is likely the Browns turn to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt a majority of the time. This is nothing new for the Browns, who have finished in the top six in the NFL in called run plays the last two seasons. We have not seen a Browns receiver finish inside the top 36 in PPR scoring in that span. The best-case scenario is that Watson suits up in Week 7, but this will be his first NFL snap in over a year and a half, so there is bound to be some rust. It is hard to sit around and wait for the first seven weeks of the season in hopes that Watson returns and helps boost the wide receivers. For that reason, I am just avoiding them until next year.
New England Patriots
(Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton)
Another team that is not overly surprising to see on this list but still needs to be mentioned. Last season, Mac Jones was the most productive rookie quarterback of the class, but he wasn’t breaking any records. The offense went through Damien Harris and the run game a significant amount of the time. As a result, Jakobi Meyers was their top fantasy wide receiver with 177.3 PPR points (WR31). Additionally, they had Kendrick Bourne finish as WR32 with 174.3 PPR points, but after that, they did not produce another top 50 wide receiver. This offseason, they brought in DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton to get more production from the position. However, this is unlikely, as Parker has struggled to stay consistent throughout his career, and Thornton, although talented, never hit his stride at Baylor.
It is likely Meyers finishes as the top receiver again while struggling to finish as a top-30 PPR option. Because the Patriots tend to lean on the run game and their tight ends, especially in the red zone, this will limit all their receivers’ ceilings. Additionally, the Patriots lost Josh McDaniels and have yet to replace him with a new offensive coordinator. From the early reports in camp, this is causing some issues for Jones and the offense. I am avoiding this room altogether, unless it’s Meyers – with whom you should limit your expectations.
