NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
In DeVonta Smith’s senior season at Alabama, he became just the third wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy and the first since 1991. His Heisman campaign was highlighted by outrageous receiving numbers, as he finished the year with yardage and touchdown totals that rank top 10 in college football history.
Despite one of the greatest receiving seasons ever, the star wideout was taken as the third receiver in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Philadelphia Eagles selected him 10th overall hoping he would elevate Jalen Hurts’ game and fill a void that has plagued them for years.
What Went Right
During Smith’s rookie season, he quickly developed chemistry with Hurts and ended up leading the team in targets by a wide margin. He was perhaps most valuable as a field-stretcher for Philadelphia, a team that needed one because of how often it threw to its running backs.
Smith’s 14.06 aDOT and one deep target per game ranked seventh and 12th, respectively, among all receivers with 50 or more targets, according to FTN’s Advanced Receiving Data. Smith wasn’t just a viable deep threat, though. He made Hurts a better quarterback overall.
Hurts finished the 2021 season with an 87.2 passer rating, but that jumped all the way up to 102 when he targeted Smith. The nearly 15% boost that Smith gave Hurts as a passer rating ranked seventh among all receivers with 50 or more receptions and first among rookie wideouts.
As Smith enters his second season, fantasy managers will look for him to flash more of the upside they saw in Weeks 4 and 9, the two times he topped 100 yards. He finished as WR30 in 2021, but second-year wideouts – especially those with this type of talent – have a tendency to level up.
What Went Wrong
As talented as Smith is, he couldn’t overcome the Eagles’ run-first scheme and shaky quarterback play from Hurts to crack the WR1 or WR2 threshold. As mentioned above, Hurts liked to look Smith’s way for the deep ball, but Hurts ranked 21st in deep-ball completion percentage and 30th in deep-ball passer rating.
Without consistent deep-ball success, Smith failed to provide fantasy managers the consistency they’d hoped for, and Philadelphia’s low-volume passing offense often capped his ceiling. That problem presented itself most significantly in the form of a lowly five receiving touchdowns.
Smith was up against stacked odds when it came to touchdowns. The Eagles ran the sixth-fewest plays and passed the ball at the lowest rate in the league in the red zone in 2021. On top of that, Hurts’ 3.7% TD rate fell well below the league average. As a result of deep-ball inefficiency and red-zone starvation, Smith’s expected fantasy points were 32 points higher than his actual fantasy points, per FTNFantasy.
Prognosis Entering 2022
Year two for Smith will look a bit different than year one with the Eagles’ addition of former Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown. Brown has the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons and should take a lot of the pressure off his young counterpart. Brown’s presence will also allow Smith to line up against the opposing defense’s No. 2 corner more frequently.
The new duo should greatly help the Eagles’ efficiency in the passing game. Brown is a stud in the intermediate receiving game, where Smith struggled the most, and both players are more than capable threats close to the line of scrimmage and downfield.
Perhaps most importantly, the addition of Brown should allow Hurts to take another step forward as a passer. Hurts already made a big jump last season, especially when he targeted his star rookie, but he could be in store for the elusive Josh Allen-esque growth in his third season.
If Hurts is better, the offense is better, and there are more yards and touchdowns to go around. Smith will likely struggle to consistently put up big fantasy numbers as the projected No. 2 option in a low-volume passing attack, but his talent is undeniable.
The second-year wideout could be a stabilizing force or safe flex option for fantasy managers, but his league-winning upside probably evaporated when the Eagles traded for Brown. Still, you can have the former Heisman winner in round six or seven in most cases. I prefer options in higher-volume passing offenses like Gabe Davis or guys with a clear path to being the No. 1 receiver on their team like Rashod Bateman, but Smith should feel relatively safe in the middle rounds.
