Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The fantasy football season is heading into crunch time. With just a few more weeks until the fantasy playoffs, these last few weeks are going to be of the utmost importance. I’ll take a close look at each team’s usage statistics and highlight something of significance.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 12
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Bye Week
Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle Out-Targets Tyreek Hill for the Second Time
Jonnu Smith continued to show that he might just be Tua Tagovailoa’s top target, but Jaylen Waddle ended up showing some explosiveness for the first time in a long time. He ended the day out-targeting Tyreek Hill for the second time this season, catching 8 balls on 9 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. Waddle’s lack of production leading up to Week 12 really made him a questionable start in most weeks, but it’s going to be really difficult to sit him moving forward.
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson’s Strangehold on the Backfield Might Be in Jeopardy
For the first time this season, Rhamondre Stevenson was outsnapped by Antonio Gibson. Gibson ended the day seeing 43% of the snaps (30) while Stevenson ended his day seeing 42% (29). Gibson has shown that he can be a very effective pass-catcher. With Stevenson putting up a -16.24 EPA (72nd out of 76 qualified runners) this season, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see Gibson finish up the season with an increase workload.
New York Jets: Bye Week
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Diontae Johnson Is Definitely Droppable
There was lots of hope for Diontae Johnson to potentially emerge as an elite WR when he was acquired by the Ravens prior to the trade deadline. However, his usage has been extremely low from Day 1, and it’s getting lower and lower as the weeks pass by. This past Monday against the Chargers, Johnson saw just 9% of the snaps (6). Even more disheartening is that he has only seen one catchable target over the 36 snaps and 17 routes run since putting on his Ravens uniform. If he’s still on your fantasy roster, it’s time to cut him and find someone more useful with his roster spot.
Cincinnati Bengals: Bye Week
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb Has Best Game of the Season, but I’m Not Convinced
In one of the first true snow games of the season, the Browns were able to take home a big win over the Steelers Thursday. Nick Chubb ended the game with 20 carries for 59 yards and two big touchdowns. My take on Chubb is that the numbers might be misleading. He still isn’t showing the explosiveness that we saw pre-injury, and he got a bigger workload on a night where it made much more sense to put a heavier emphasis on the ground game. If you have Chubb on your roster, I would proceed with caution. He shouldn’t be a must play if you have other viable options at the running back and flex positions.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris Might Be Falling out of Favor
Jaylen Warren saw his biggest workload of the season Thursday, ending his night seeing 57% of the snaps (39) compared to Najee Harris’ 39% (27). Again, in the snowy conditions in Cleveland, it made much more sense for Harris to be a bigger part of the gamescript, but instead, Warren saw a ton of time on the field, including one goal line snap that ended with a 3-yard touchdown.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Joe Mixon’s Elite Usage Continues in a Loss
The Texans were upset by the Titans Sunday, and the most notable thing was the fact that C.J. Stroud just hasn’t looked as comfortable as he did throughout his rookie campaign. His ineffectiveness might be the main reason why we’ve seen so much Joe Mixon since he came back to the lineup in Week 6. For the sixth week in a row, Mixon got at least 19 touches. While he wasn’t able to do much on the ground, he did catch a season-high 5 passes for 23 yards.
Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. Seeing Some Love from Anthony Richardson
Michael Pittman Jr. had run into some tough games in Joe Flacco’s last few starts. It has been a pleasant surprise to see Pittman finally thrive with Anthony Richardson at the helm. Over the last two weeks, he has caught 11 passes on a team-leading 12 catchable targets for 152 yards. He continues to get beaten up with frequent visits to the medical tent, but it’s undoubtedly a promising sign for Pittman as we close out the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Bye Week
Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard Sees Season-High 94% of the Snaps
With Tyjae Spears once again inactive, we saw Tony Pollard see a whopping 94% of the snaps (63) while earning 27 touches and racking up 129 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. His 27 touches were good enough for the second-most touches in Week 12 behind Saquan Barkley. Good things clearly happened with Pollard getting his highest volume of the season, given the fact that the Titans earned a surprise win against the division-leading Texans. It’s hard to imagine a world where Pollard doesn’t continue to get a large share of the workload even if Spears is back in the lineup.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Audric Estime’s RB1 Run Lasted About Half a Game
In Week 12, Audric Estime saw a measly 7% of the snaps (5) and was even outsnapped by fullback Michael Burton. It’s hard to believe that Estime’s run as RB1 lasted a few quarters in Week 10 against the Chiefs. If you were one of the unfortunate people who invested to pick up Estime on waivers, you might as well just send him back there if you haven’t done so already.
Kansas City Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins Outsnapped by 3 Other Receivers
After five weeks in a Chiefs uniform, DeAndre Hopkins is still seeing a very small share of the snaps. In fact, JuJu Smith-Schuster outsnapped Hopkins in his second game back in the lineup. Hopkins saw just 45% of the snaps (33) but did snag the most catches at the WR position with 5 receptions on 5 catchable targets. It’s unlikely Hopkins will get significant volume when he regularly sees less than half of the snaps, but given the quality of the snaps he’s getting, he’s going to be hard to leave on your bench unless you have a great situation at the WR position.
Las Vegas Raiders: Ameer Abdullah Sees Elite Usage
It wasn’t Dylan Laube’s time to shine. Head coach Antonio Pierce decided to give Ameer Abdullah 90% of the snaps (69) with Alexander Mattison and Zamir White inactive and it got him 13 touches for 65 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Abdullah’s performance was quite admirable considering Mattison and White have both been largely ineffective for most of the season. With Pierce likely fighting or his job as the Raiders finish up the season, I would expect the Raiders to continue to play their most productive players as long as they are healthy.
Los Angeles Chargers: Running Game Ineffective Without J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins’ injury in the middle of the Chargers’ game against the Ravens really handcuffed the team. Gus Edwards was not very effective, and it led to the seldom-used Hassan Haskins seeing a team-leading 45% of the snaps (31) out of the backfield, with his primary focus being pass protection. With Dobbins out this week, my assumption is that Kimani Vidal will take on a bigger role and possibly even see more usage than Edwards.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Luke Schoonmaker a Viable TE with Jake Ferguson Out
Over the last two weeks, Luke Schoonmaker has caught 9 passes on 9 catchable targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. He undoubtedly has chemistry with backup QB Cooper Rush and should continue to see a good chunk of targets as long as Ferguson remains out. Given the Cowboys are playing a Thanksgiving game, I would imagine that Ferguson is unlikely to suit up.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. Might Be in the Doghouse
After an ill-timed fumble by Tyrone Tracy Jr. to lose their game in Germany to the Panthers, and following it up with another one against the Buccaneers, I wouldn’t be too surprised if Devin Singletary ends up seeing more snaps in the coming weeks. Tracy’s fumble led to a smaller snap share of 41% (24) with Singletary and RB3 Eric Gray combining to see 51% (36).
Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles Gameplan Goes Even More Run-Centric
DeVonta Smith was out of the lineup, and it led to both Jahan Dotson and Johnny Wilson both seeing over 50 snaps apiece. Unfortunately for them, those 101 combined snaps and 34 routes run led to just 1 catchable target for 4 yards. The Eagles’ game plan focused heavily on their outstanding run game. Even so, Jahan Dotson has done virtually nothing throughout the season. As I’ve said before, you probably shouldn’t be starting anyone on the Eagles roster not named Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and maybe Dallas Goedert.
Washington Commanders: Noah Brown and Zach Ertz Have Been Reliable
While Terry McLaurin and the Commanders’ run game get most of the love, we’ve definitely seen both Noah Brown and Zach Ertz step up and take on big roles in the Commanders offense. Brown saw a team-leading 10 targets while Ertz ended with another game with 6 catches and a touchdown. Both players are still available in a large number of leagues (Brown is available in 11% and Ertz in 48% of Yahoo leagues) and should be considered if you have room on your roster.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Keenan Allen Finishes with Team-Leading 15 Targets
Keenan Allen put together his best game as a Chicago Bear, finishing with a team-high 9 receptions on 11 catchable targets and 15 total targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. It is definitely the type of volume that those who drafted Allen this season were hoping for. I do think there is some cause for concern in the sense that the Bears took 72 snaps in a wild game that went deep into overtime and featured multiple game-saving drives and a successful onside kick. This type of volume from the offense is certainly an outlier and is highly unlikely to be replicated.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs Sees a Season-High 21 Carries, 24 Touches, But …
Jahmyr Gibbs saw a season-high 21 carries and 24 touches in the Lions Week 12 victory over the Colts. It’s worth noting that Gibbs ended up seeing the high volume due to a shoulder injury that took David Montgomery out of the game. Gibbs is a guy who has been able to overcome his timeshare situation with Montgomery and put up RB1-type numbers throughout the season. You shouldn’t expect 200okys touches from Gibbs moving forward, but he’s certainly going to remain one of the elite running backs in football regardless of Montgomery’s status.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs Sees Ton of Volume in 53% of the Snaps
Even though Josh Jacobs saw just 53% of the snaps (38) against the 49ers, he ended the game seeing 26 touches in those 38 snaps. The gamescript certainly called for a lot of Jacobs given the 49ers were trailing the entire game, but even so, his usage really stands out due to its quality. He ended the game with 7 red zone touches, 5 goal line touches and 3 goal line touchdowns. The Packers have had a habit of getting too pass heavy at the goal line, so this 3-TD performance could end up being extremely significant in the coming weeks.
Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson Has Worst Game of the Season
Justin Jefferson ended his Sunday with just 2 catches on 2 catchable targets for 27 yards. The Bears simply decided that they were not going to let Jefferson beat them, and it meant double- and even triple-teaming him for most of the game. Considering that game plan led to both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson putting up huge performances, I don’t think there’s going to be much to worry about when it comes to Jefferson’s volume moving forward.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Bye Week
Carolina Panthers: Adam Thielen Being Eased into the Lineup
Adam Thielen saw the third-most snaps from the WR position behind Xavier Legette and David Moore When you consider that Bryce Young’s top target in Week 10, Jalen Coker, was out of the lineup, and Thielen still saw just 61% of the snaps (38), it’s likely that Thielen was on a bit of a pitch count and eased into the lineup. While I’m not too confident in Thielen’s workload for the rest of the season, I do like Young’s chances to continue his resurgence.
New Orleans Saints: Bye Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans Also Being Eased into the Lineup
After missing four games with a hamstring strain, Mike Evans returned to the Buccaneerse lineup and saw just 60% of the snaps (39). He was able to show impact in his limited snaps and caught 5 passes for 68 yards. Evans should continue to see an uptick in usage in the coming weeks with the Buccaneers continuing their run to take home the NFC South title.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride Has Huge Game
The Cardinals’ game plan is usually centered on getting the ball to James Conner. But with the team struggling to put points on the board, it led to Kyler Murray throwing a season-high 37 times. Murray completed 24 of those 37 pass attempts, and 12 of the went to Trey McBride, who led everyone on the field with those 12 catches on 12 catchable targets for 133 yards. Regardless of the fact that the total of 37 pass attempts was an outlier, it’s extremely promising to know that McBride has seemingly earned Kyler’s utmost trust.
Los Angeles Rams: Don’t Be Surprised If We See More Tutu Atwell
While both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp saw their regular high-target share from Matthew Stafford, we also saw Demarcus Robinson take down just 2 catches on 2 catchable targets for 15 yards and a touchdown. We also found out that Robinson was arrested for driving under the influence at over 100 MPH Monday morning. Robinson’s status for Week 13 as well as the coming weeks is up in the air, but my guess is that Tutu Atwell will take a lot of the snaps that would have gone to Robinson. Atwell caught all three of his targets for 30 yards, including some tougher catches in Stafford’s comeback attempt at the end of the game. We have yet to see much of Atwell with both Nacua and Kupp in the lineup, but he’s certainly a compelling add given his outstanding speed, and circumstance of being on the field with two of the league’s best receivers taking away a lot of attention from Stafford’s other options.
San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings Is the Team’s WR1
For the third week in a row, Jauan Jennings led the 49ers’ WR room in snaps, catches, targets and yardage, which is significant just because it happened with Brandon Allen under center. Jennings has made a big surge from being drafted as the team’s WR4 in deep leagues and best ball drafts and earning his position as the team’s WR1.
Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Might Have Surpassed DK Metcalf as the No. 1
There was a lot of doubt regarding Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s huge role in the passing game once DK Metcalf made his return in Week 11. Still, from the looks of it, Smith-Njigba appears to be in a great position to continue his surge. He ended his day with his fourth straight game with at least 6 catches and 69 receiving yards. Any doubts on his production with Metcalf back has been completely put to rest.
