Week 9 flames: Release the Raven! Dobbins enters RB2 discussion

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points: TE: 10 fantasy points; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 9 Flames via Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Jake Luton, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

(1% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $4,900)
Matchup: vs. HOU
Vegas line/Total: HOU -6, 51

This time last year, Facebook pages from recent Halloween festivities were splashed with images of Wazzu T-shirts, jorts, aviator sunglasses, wonderfully conditioned hair, headbands and, of course, a finely trimmed handlebar mustache. The usual family-dividing conspiracy theories, too. Dressing up as Gardner Minshew, one of the hippest and most marketable characters to ever don a Jaguars uniform, was all the rage. The sixth-round pick’s jovial personality, underdog story and laudable on-field execution were infectious, so much so it coined playful phrases like “Minshew Magic” and “The Minshow.” Sidelined by a thumb injury, the QB’s last pinch of pixie dust has blown away. His eroded numbers in several critical areas, including via play action and on deep balls, nearly prompted Doug Marrone to make a change. The setback to his throwing hand only made it convenient.

Luton, a sixth-round selection also from a Pac-12 school (Oregon St.), could, coincidentally enough, be this year’s Minshew. He may not possess a similar fun-loving persona, but the rookie is a massive man (6-foot-7, 230 pounds) equipped with solid pocket awareness and an efficient arm, particularly on touch throws in the short-to-intermediate field. He isn’t a big-armed long-bomb specialist with plus athleticism akin to Justin Herbert, but he’s mobile enough to run opportunistically. Evidenced by his 136.1 passer rating on throws beyond 20 yards last season for the Beavers, he does have enough zip and accuracy to record the occasional chunk gain. Tabbed a “developmental” prospect by most, Jacksonville is hopeful he, like Minshew, can be a diamond in the rough.

Houston presents the perfect entry-level matchup for the inexperienced QB. The Texans are positively dreadful defending the pass. This season, they’ve allowed 7.8 pass yards per attempt, 265.7 pass yards per game, a 17:1 TD:INT split and the 10th-most fantasy points to signal callers. Minshew struggled feeding the ball to his playmakers, D.J. Chark most especially. With fellow youngster RB James Robinson to assist in softening the defense, Luton could surprise, if he serves up spoonfuls to Chark. Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz backers with limited options on waivers should give him a long look.

Fearless forecast: 262 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 10 rushing yards, 18.5 fantasy points

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens

(26%; $4,900)
Matchup: at IND
Vegas line/Total: BAL -2.5, 45

It’s about damn time, Greg Roman. Feed the man. Feed him. Dobbins, earning more touches with Mark Ingram sidelined by an ankle injury, exhibited eye-popping burst and break-tackle YAC against the vaunted Steelers run D last Sunday, calling cards he showcased during his days with Ohio State. Through the season’s midpoint he’s amassed an impressive 4.20 YAC per attempt — numero uno among eligible backs — and a 19.7% missed tackle rate. Gus Edwards, the between-the-hashmarks bruiser in this offense, will continue to log touches, but Dobbins’ creativity and versatility need to be maximized. Last week against the AFC’s most unyielding run defense, he busted through for 113 yards on 15 carries. After the stellar effort, is this the week he becomes the fully featured back?

Running on Indianapolis is akin to galloping through a briar patch. It’s thorny. Darius Leonard returned from injury in spectacular fashion crashing pockets and plunging holes against Detroit. He and his defensive homeboys have yielded 3.26 yards per carry, 94.7 total yards per game, five total TDs and the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Grover Stewart and Leonard each rank inside the top-20 among all defenders in run-stop percentage. A devastating injury to All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley complicates matters, but if Ingram is sidelined yet again, Dobbins should command 12-plus touches. Throw the Raven some seed.

Fearless forecast: 13 carries, 53 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 11 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.4 fantasy points

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team

(46%; $5,800)
Matchup: vs. NYG
Vegas line/Total: WAS -3, 41

A mystery wrapped in an enigma and served with a steamy side of intrigue. For August fantasy football drafters, the cryptic running back, a player who logged just 101 career touches in college at Memphis, was a complete shot in the dark. Uber athletic and versatile, sure, but his minimal contributions with the Tigers made him the ultimate mid-round wildcard. Though underutilized early on (We will never forget the inexplicable 17-carry Peyton Barber Week 1 game, Riverboat Ron), the rookie has often come up aces. He ranks No. 10 in yards created per touch (1.67) and tallied a sensational 27.2 missed tackle percentage. Gaining major momentum heading into last week’s bye with a 128-yard, 1-TD trouncing of Dallas, he’s a RB2 mainstay rest of season. If he doesn’t receive 15-20 touches regularly, the coaching staff should be sent packing.

In another dismal NFC East matchup between below-.500 teams still very much alive for a playoff spot, expect Gibson to beam brightly. The Giants have exceeded all expectations on defense, often plugging the run. This season, Blake Martinez and Dalvin Tomlinson alone have recorded 41 tackles for loss versus the run. As a unit, New York has surrendered 3.86 yards per carry, 135.4 total yards per game and seven total touchdowns to RBs, slotting in at No. 15 in adjusted line yards allowed. Gibson totaled an underwhelming 55 yards on 13 touches in the first matchup Week 6. However, fresh off siesta, bank on his role growing in the rematch.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 60 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 1 touchdown,16.4 fantasy points

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

(20%; $4,700)
Matchup: at ATL
Vegas line/Total: ATL -4, 47.5

Hyped. Ballyhooed. Exalted. Fantasy players chasing upside grinded against random inanimate objects in August just pondering the prospects of many first-year wide receivers from April’s NFL Draft. Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk and occasionally Laviska Shenault have delivered on multiple fronts, but Jeudy, arguably the most publicized rookie wideout, simply hasn’t. Currently outside the top-50 in fantasy points per game in a 0.5 PPR setting and failing to rank top-40 in completed air yards, catch rate and red-zone targets, he’s largely soured. The onus isn’t entirely on his shoulders evidenced by his No. 93 rank in catchable target percentage, but most label him “unreliable.”

This week, however, it’s time to welcome Jeudy to the circle of trust. Atlanta’s shortcomings in defending the pass game are well documented. Though they suddenly morphed into a respectable unit dodging raindrops last week in Charlotte, the Falcons are mostly flightless penguins bodying up opposing receivers. This year they’ve surrendered 8.5 pass yards per attempt, the second-most air yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to WRs. Jeudy, who’s lined up in the slot on just over 60% of his snaps, will battle softie Isaiah Oliver who’s coughed up a 135.8 passer rating and 1.60 yards per snap to his assignments. Tally it up and expect Judge Jeudy to throw the book at Atlanta.

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.1 fantasy points

Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

(37%; $5,700)
Matchup: at DAL
Vegas line/Total: DAL -3.5, NA

Just four weeks ago, Claypool was the talk of Fantasyland. Whether on terrestrial/satellite radio or across various grainy and poorly lit low-budget video programs, pundits pumped up the rookie designating him a WR2, at a minimum, over the rest of the season. But, in my best Eminem voice, they forgot about Diontae. Sophomore receiver Diontae Johnson is Ben Roethlisberger’s main man. When not dinged, a rare occurrence, he’s commanded over 21% of the team’s target share. Shifty, versatile and sure-handed, he splits defenses with regularity, ranking top-five in contested catch rate. It’s why Claypool rosterers are so temperamental. Counting on him weekly is complete guesswork.

This week, however, Claypool is highly insertable at the WR2 spot in 12-team leagues. Johnson, predictably, left last week’s matchup in Baltimore with yet another random ailment before reentering. He finished with an uneventful one reception for six yards on three targets. Likely to take on an expanded role, the rook could mow down the Cowboys like this Skittles enthusiast does the kids’ Halloween candy stash. The youngster’s length, explosiveness and condor-like catch radius are no match for a Dallas secondary which operates as a factory for fantasy points. The lonely ‘Boys have conceded the second-most TDs (14) and sixth-most fantasy points to WRs. Drilling down, his projected primary matchup, Trevon Diggs, has allowed a 104.8 passer rating and 1.46 yards snap. Cannonball splash into the ‘Pool.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.8 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots

(1%; $4,300)
Matchup: at NYJ
Vegas line/Total: NE -7.5, 41.5

In a turn of events indicative of 2020, the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick’s marauding band of hardware collectors, are very much on the outside looking in among playoff hopefuls. Their streak of 11 straight years of postseason appearances, an NFL record, is seriously in danger. An unraveled defense, rapidly deteriorating QB and rather hollow arsenal explain the sudden sharp downturn. With Julian Edelman sidelined for at least another game or two, Meyers is the only weapon with a noteworthy caliber. This, of course, assumes Cam Newton’s noodle arm can actually get him the ball accurately and on time. Still, his 10 targets and six receptions for 58 yards last week in blustery Buffalo was promising.

The Jets, a raging inferno next to a nuclear containment plant, continue to march toward complete defeat. Giving credit, they were at least competitive for a half in Kansas City, but, for the most part, they’re hilariously inept. On the season, they’ve surrendered 8.1 pass yards per attempt and the 11th-most fantasy points to WRs. His projected adversary, CB Pierre Desir, has given up a 110.0 passer rating and 1.46 yards per snap. Cam, though a surprising QB9 in adjusted completion percentage, appears to be fading fast, but with Edelman out, Myers will continue to be his main squeeze. Give yourself a reason to watch this godforsaken game.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.7 fantasy points

Bonus flames (under 60% started)

QB: Derek Carr, LV (Line: LAC -1.5; DK: $5,700) — Driving mixed precipitation. Howling winds exceeding 45 miles per hour. A biting chill. The conditions Carr and Co. endured last week were idyllic for a polar bear. Unsurprisingly, as deep passes fluttered in the air, gameplans were greatly altered to combat Mother Nature’s wickedness. A heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and Carr (41 rush yards) were employed to remain competitive. In sunny SoCal this week to face the Chargers, expect the QB to rediscover his 20-fantasy-point form. L.A., despite Casey Hayward’s best efforts, has turned into quite the defensive sieve. The Bolts have given up a mere 6.8 pass yards per attempt, but they’ve allowed 278.8 pass yards per game and 11 passing touchdowns since Week 4. In a game with measurable shootout appeal (54 total), Carr, tops in deep-ball passer rating (139.6), uncorks. (FF: 308-2-1-16, 20.9 fantasy points)

RB: Jamycal Hasty, SF (Line: GB -4.5; DK: $4,300) — In sports, there are several examples of apt surnames — Usain Bolt, Homer Bush, Lonzo Ball, Takeo Spikes, Mecole Hardman (There are rumors). The undrafted rookie from Baylor is another name to add to the list. As his name suggests, the youngster runs with power and urgency, a classic downhill back who revs the engine in Kyle Shanahan’s one-cut-and-go scheme. On 22 touches, he’s forced six missed tackles and posted a fair 2.55 YAC per attempt. Stonewalled often last week in Seattle, he should find clearer paths against Green Bay. The Packers’ fungible front, pounded to Pluto last week by Dalvin Cook, has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs, surrendering 4.66 yards per carry, 169.1 total yards per game and 14 total TDs. Jimmy Garoppolo’s status (ankle) is very much in doubt, but Nick Mullens is serviceable enough to keep the defense honest. Throw in Tevin Coleman’s probable absence and Hasty booms. (FF: 15-65-1-1-6-0, 13.6 fantasy points)

RB: Chase Edmonds, ARZ (Line: ARZ -4.5; DK: $6,800) — More pizazz. More sizzle. More juice. When given opportunities, Edmonds has brought more to the table than incumbent Kenyan Drake. With the veteran “day-to-day” with a wrenched ankle, it’s the complementary back’s time to shine. His dual-threat skill set meshes perfectly with Kliff Kingsbury’s breakneck offensive brand. Averaging 7.2 yards per touch and top-five in breakaway run percentage, he should ignite with a heavier workload. Squaring off versus a Miami defense that’s allowed 4.96 yards per carry, 149.0 total yards per game, 10 combined TDs and the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs, he officially enters into the RB1 discussion in 12-team leagues. Play him over Ezekiel Elliott who draws Pittsburgh at home? It’s absolutely recommended. Abandon your lazy arguments, “Always Start your Studs” zealots. (FF: 13-44-5-31-1, 16.0 fantasy points)

WR: Cole Beasley, BUF (Line: SEA -3; DK: $5,400) — Unbeknownst to most, Beasley is one of the athletic world’s most fiery rappers, the antithesis of Le'Veon Bell. Whether freestyling or on more formed tracks, the dude can flow. His rhythm on the field is equally dope. Operating as Josh Allen’s primary slot receiver (89.6% snap percentage), he’s steadily dropped beats on opponents, tallying five games with at least 12 PPR fantasy points. Under the hood he ranks top-20 in completed air yards, contested catch rate and total red-zone targets. Entering Week 9, he’s also among WR3 producers in PPR (WR35). This week facing a Seattle defense that’s conceded the most slot yards on the season and the most fantasy points to WRs, he’s an ideal plug ‘n play for Tyler Boyd, Travis Fulgham, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods stashers. Seattle’s main slot corner, Tre Flowers, has given up a 129.8 passer rating to his assignments. (FF: 6-68-1, 15.8 fantasy points)

TE: Ross Dwelley, SF (Line: GB -3.5; DK: $3,800) — For San Francisco, catastrophic injuries are contagious. No vaccine, it seems, can protect the organization’s remaining and active members. Simply walking to the local convenience store for a bag of Fritos and a Mad Dog chaser is fraught with peril. Down George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens-to-Dwelley could become commonplace Thursday night. Kyle Shanahan’s motion creativity combined Brandon Aiyuk sure to draw Jaire Alexander’s attention arrows to ample seam looks to the tight end. Dwelley has averaged 4.7 more DraftKings points per game in four games without Kittle in the lineup since 2019. Tight end is a barren wasteland. Plug him in (IF Jordan Reed is ruled out). (FF: 4-32-1, 11.2 fantasy points)

Bonus flame: Jordan Wilkins, RB, IND (Line: BAL -2.5; DK: $4,200) — Monday, Frank Reich described the puzzling transformation of his backfield as “hot hand.” And you thought Halloween’s ghouls and goblins were unsettling. The rusher, a talented downhill mound mover, indeed emitted fire from the digits. Blasting would-be Lions tacklers, he notched 114 combined yards and a touchdown on an exhaustive 21 touches, a career high. The spike may not be an anomaly. Jonathan Taylor, overtly ineffective when healthy (2.10 YAC/att, 9.3% missed tackle rate), is dealing with an ankle injury. Wilkins, who has registered an outstanding 3.35 YAC per attempt and 30.8 missed tackle percentage, is, frankly, the more efficient option. The most popular waiver add of the week, he’s instantly startable at RB2 in Week 9. (FF: 13-64-1-1-8-0, 13.7 fantasy points)