Week 7 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for Week 7. In this writeup, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries. With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Washington Football Team vs. Green Bay Packers

GB -8, O/U 48

Pace and playcalling

This game will finish average to below average in pace. Where it falls in that range will be due to time of possession. Washington is fifth in neutral pace, whereas Green Bay remains the slowest team in the NFL. If Washington loses the time of possession battle, the play volume will be capped for both teams. 

The passing rates for these teams are also not awe-inspiring. Green Bay is 16th (58.0%) in neutral passing rate, followed by Washington at 19th (57.0%). Even when Washington gets down their passing rate (29th, 59.2%) doesn’t climb high enough to push the needle. 

Injuries

Washington

• Sam Cosmi (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Antonio Gibson (RB) – (Shin – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Terry McLaurin (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Curtis Samuel (WR) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Brandon Scherff (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Ricky Seals-Jones (TE) – (Quad – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Cam Sims (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Dyami Brown (WR) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• William Jackson (CB) – (Knee – LP / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Green Bay

• Aaron Jones (RB) – (Ankle – FP / FP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Kevin King (CB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Football Team

Over the last two weeks, Taylor Heinicke has turned back into a pumpkin after three straight games of 20-plus fantasy points. He has struggled to complete only 55% of his passes with 5.2 yards per attempt. The Packers are a mediocre matchup, ranking 19th in DVOA, allowing the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate (77.5%) per FTN Data. While I won’t be rostering Heinicke this week, there’s some upside here for his pass catchers. Green Bay has allowed the sixth-most passing touchdowns (13), mixing nicely with Washington’s 66.9% (ninth-best) red-zone passing rate. 

Antonio Gibson left last week’s game, aggravating his injured shin. Gibson played only 39% of snaps totaling 12 touches and 44 yards. Even if he can play this game, he doesn’t make the GPP pool because with the risk of injury and the other running back plays on this slate, there’s no reason to go there. 

If Gibson is out, Jaret Patterson will form a committee with J.D. McKissic. McKissic rolled up 16 touches, 110 total yards, and a 26% target share (10 targets) last week with Gibson banged up. He likely steps into the lead-back role hogging the passing-game usage and splitting the early-down work with Patterson. Last season in the two games Gibson missed, McKissic shared the totes with Peyton Barber while gobbling up routes. Patterson has only 20 collegiate receptions on his resume, so his chances of stealing the receiving work from McKissic are slim. The interesting finding from last year’s small sample was the team trusted McKissic with the red-zone work. He outcarried Barber two to one inside the 20 in those two games. The Packers aren’t impervious on the ground. They are 26th and 19th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. They have shown the propensity to give up big plays (25th in explosive run rate allowed) and production to pass-catching backs (24th in DVOA). They have allowed the 11th-most receptions (34) and three receiving touchdowns (third-most) to running backs. McKissic is fine GPP play on DraftKings with 15-20 touch upside. He’s viable in a game or mini-stack on FanDuel. 

Last year Weeks 14-15

With Heinicke’s struggles, I won’t be chasing fourth and fifth options in this passing game. Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones are the only players I’ll consider here outside of McKissic for GPPs. McLaurin is sixth in target share (28%) and fourth in air yard market share (48%) among all wideouts. He’s also seen a 38% end-zone target share. This week, he’ll run 73% of his routes against Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas if Kevin King isn’t back. Stokes has allowed a 58.3% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating in coverage. Last week was Douglas’s first of the season. Last year he gave up a 64.9% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating. 

Since assuming the starting role, Seals-Jones has been Logan Thomas 2.0. He’s seen a 17.5% target share while leading the team in red-zone targets (three). He’s run a route on 89.6% of Heinicke’s dropbacks. Green Bay is 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against tight ends. Talented receiving tight ends such as George Kittle (seven receptions, 92 receiving yards) and T.J. Hockenson (eight receptions, 66 receiving yards, one touchdown) have had successful outings against this defense. Seals-Jones and McKissic are my favorite plays from the Washington side. 

Packers

Aaron Rodgers’ puffed-up DFS price tags continue to astound me. If you’re looking to play him, it’s for name value because I can’t understand (QB4, $7,500, DraftKings; QB7, $7,900, FanDuel) paying a premium for a quarterback that’s averaging 31 pass attempts and 239 yards passing per game. Rodgers has been a top-five fantasy quarterback and surpassed 270 passing yards only once this season. I understand the draw to play Rodgers against a defense ranked 28th in pass defense DVOA. Washington ranks dead last in passing yards (1,904), passing touchdowns (16) and first read completion rate allowed (77.3%). All of these metrics scream to play Davante Adams though. With Adams you are rostering 46.5% of Rodgers’ passing yardage, but we’ll get to Adams in a second let’s talk about this Packer backfield. 

AJ Dillon has become a gnawing thorn in Aaron Jones’ side. Jones still leads this backfield in high value touches and the passing game, but Dillon is a worrisome presence. Jones has averaged 17.7 touches and 106 total yards per game over the last three weeks. When we roster Jones, it’s tied to his efficiency and his touchdown equity, but both of those paths are difficult to see this week enroute to a ceiling game. Washington has allowed the fewest yards after contact per attempt (1.79), seventh-lowest gash rate (7.6%), and they have the fourth-highest stuff rate (54.4%) per FTN Data. Yes, they are ranked 30th in DVOA against receiving backs, but this looks rosier on paper than the actual production lays out. They have conceded the seventh-lowest reception total (24) and are 18th in receiving yards (224) allowed. The reason they rank so lowly is they are tied with the Lions for the most receiving touchdowns (six) allowed to backs through the air. 

Weeks 4-6

Weeks 2-3

**Update: William Jackson is clearly not 100%. If he is limited or out then it’s wheels up for Adams and he is now in the core.**

Davante Adams has remained the crowned king of the wide receiver realm. Adams is first in target share (35.5%), fourth in air yard market share (44.5%), and second in weighted opportunity among receivers. As the highest-priced receiver on DraftKings ($8,900) and FanDuel ($9,000), if you’re rostering him, you’re playing him for a nuclear outcome at that price tag. Adams could absolutely pay off against this defense, but there is also a path where he has a productive day but doesn’t play up to his lofty tags. Adams will move around the formation, but he could find William Jackson in his back pocket as he does. Jackson has followed two receivers this season on nearly half of their routes. The results per our Shadow Index speak for themselves. Last week the concern for Adams was Jaylon Johnson, who followed him on 89% of his routes, limiting him to two receptions and 43 receiving yards. This week that worry is Jackson. Jackson has allowed a 51.4% catch rate and 92.3 passer rating in coverage. If Jackson doesn’t shadow Adams, he’ll find easier cornerback matchups across the formation. Kendall Fuller has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating. Benjamin St-Juste is giving up a 58.3% catch rate and 115.1 passer rating. 

The other full-time receiver worth discussing for the Packers is Allen Lazard. Last week Lazard tied Adams for the team lead in targets (five) and deep targets (two). Lazard will run about 20% of his routes against Fuller and some 33% of his routes against St-Juste. Those figures could push higher if Jackson follows Adams. A week after Lazard got into the endzone, he’s worth rostering in DFS again in a mini-stack from this game. 

Robert Tonyan has been left out in the cold this season. He’s seen an 11% target share, but that hasn’t amounted to much in this low-volume passing attack. He has only one have this season with more than four targets and 11 receiving yards. Washington is fifth in DVOA against the position. They have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (405), but some that is volume-driven as they also seen the sixth-most tight end targets (50). This defense has only given up one receiving touchdown so far. Unless there’s an injury or change in offensive philosophy later this season, it’s going to be difficult for me to play him this year. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Davante Adams
GPP only: J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans

KC -5, O/U 57.5

Pace and playcalling

Another middle-of-the-road game in terms of pace. The Chiefs are ranked 12th in neutral pace while the Titans are slowing down play volume, sitting at 20th. Kansas City is 14th (58.6%) in neutral pass rate, but they have picked it up over the last two weeks. In those two games, Andy Reid calls passing plays on 64.8% of their snaps (fifth highest) when the score is close. Tennessee remains a Derrick Henry-centric offense, ranking 26th (54.2%) in passing rate in neutral environments. 

Injuries

Kansas City

• Tyreek Hill (WR) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Joe Thuney (OL) – (Hand – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Chris Jones (DT) – (Hand – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Travis Kelce (TE) – (Neck – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Tyrann Mathieu (S) – (Thumb/Toe – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Charvarius Ward (CB) – (Quad – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Tennessee

• A.J. Brown (WR) – (Illness – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Chris Jackson (CB) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Julio Jones (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Taylor Lewan (OL) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jeremy McNichols (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Chester Rogers (WR) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Chiefs

If there was ever a week to pay up or prioritize Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack, this is it. The Titans have allowed the eighth-most passing yards (1,749) and passing touchdowns (12). This had led to the fifth-most fantasy points per game (22.1) allowed to the quarterback position. The area where they’ve been burned the most is by downfield passing, as they are 31st in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Mahomes is ninth in deep attempts (27) and eighth in deep completion rate (48.1%). 

The only worry for Mahomes is the Titans are 14th in pressure rate (25.5%), but the Chiefs’ offensive line has kept him clean as he’s seen the tenth-lowest pressure rate (20.8%) this season. If Tennessee’s pass rush can get home, though, it could be a disappointing day for Mahomes, who has the 10th-highest completion rate difference (29.6%) versus pressure. It’s noteworthy, but I still side with Kansas City protecting well enough for Mahomes to carve up this secondary. 

Last week, Darrel Williams worked as the clear lead back for Kansas City. If the Chiefs’ aerial attack is popular, then Williams could be a good leverage play in GPPs, but outside of that, I don’t have much interest in him this week. He got a deserved price hike (RB13, $5,800, DraftKings; RB12, $6,700, FanDuel) which matches his role, but the match-up is tough again this week. The Titans are a pass funnel defense and have been stout against opposing rushers allowing the sixth-lowest gash rate and fourth-lowest explosive run rate. They are also fifth in DVOA against receiving backs. If Williams gets there this week, it’ll be because of volume and goal-line looks against a defense that’s 18th against the rush in the red zone (54% success allowed). 

Weeks 6

The stacking options are easy for Mahomes, with Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce standing out. Hill is seventh in target share (27.8%) and 12th in airy yard market share (37.6%) among wide receivers. Hardman has a 15.1% target share and 15.8% of the air yards. Hill leads the team with a 25% red zone target share, followed by Hardman and Kelce tied with 17%. Hill leads the team with nine deep targets, followed by Hardman with five. Hill and Hardman will both run nearly half of their routes on the perimeter and in the slot. The fact is the Titans don’t have a corner at any position that can slow them down with Kristian Fulton now on the IR. These two will see Janoris Jenkins, Elijah Molden and Chris Jackson in coverage. Jenkins has been abysmal, allowing a 76.5% catch rate and 127.2 passer rating. Molden has been even worse, giving up a 75% catch rate and 155.9 passer rating. Jackson was moved to the perimeter last week, but he too has been a free pass allowing a 76.5% catch rate and 93.2 passer rating. 

Matchups matter little when you’re Travis Kelce. He is first in target share (23.3%) and fifth in air yard share (22.3%) among tight ends. Kelce is second on the team with a 23% first read share. The Titans are fourth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the tight end position. If you’re looking to single stack, Mahomes Hill is my lean over Kelce, but double stacking him is also viable.

Titans

Ryan Tannehill isn’t rosterable in GPPs. The efficiency hasn’t been there this season to remotely consider him despite the mouthwatering matchup. Tannehill is averaging 33.7 pass attempts, 244.5 passing yards, and 15.9 fantasy points per game. He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns and crossed 300 yards passing only once.

If you’re building game stacks or mini-stacks for this contest, Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are your Titans targets. Julio Jones left last week’s game with a hamstring issue, so considering the woeful mess his season has shaped up to be thus far I’ll happily avoid the possible landmine.

Derrick Henry is on a legendary pace this season, somehow averaging 29.7 touches, 153.5 total yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. While he’s pricey, I’ll be mixing in exposure again this week. There’s not a ton of analysis to be had here. The Chiefs stink at all things related to stopping the run allowing the sixth-most rushing yards (799) and second-most rushing touchdowns (nine). They have permitted the fourth-highest gash rate (13.4%). The last time Henry faced this team, he broke football with 25 touches and 191 total yards, and two scores. That’s in his range of outcomes this week. Even if the Titans get down early, they don’t go away from the Big Dog with the league’s sixth-highest (39.7%) trailing rushing rate. 

In the four games, A.J. Brown has played 64% snaps or above; he has a 27.5% target share with a whopping 39.2% air yard share. The Chiefs’ pass defense has struggled, ranking 31st in DVOA, allowing the third-highest yards per attempt (8.4). Brown will run approximately 70% (31.3% slot, 39.5% RWR) against L’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton. Sneed has allowed a 75% catch rate and 139.6 passer rating in coverage. Fenton has been mildly better, permitting a 68.8% catch rate and 89.6 passer rating. 

Anthony Firkser is viable in a large-field tournament, MME or game stack. He’s seen an 11% target share with two red-zone targets in his four games of action. He ran a route on 60% of Tannehill’s dropbacks. The Chiefs are 27th in DVOA against the tight end position allowing the most receiving yards (531) and seventh-most receptions (36). It’s a thinner play for sure, but if you’re looking for value in this game stack, he’s viable. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown
GPP only: Darrel Williams, Mecole Hardman, Anthony Firkser (large field, MME, game stack only)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Miami Dolphins

ATL -2.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

The game is going to fly. This will possibly be the fastest game on the entire slate. Miami is blazing a trail and going to the air. The Dolphins are second and first (67.2%) in pace and passing rate. Atlanta started slow this year, but they have massively picked it up since Week 3. Since then, the Falcons have been fifth and seventh (61.8%) in neutral pace and passing rate. This game will be one of my favorites, and I’ll look to it for mini correlations and one-offs.

Injuries

Atlanta

• Dante Fowler (LB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Avery Williams (CB) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Doubtful

Miami

• Malcolm Brown (RB) – (Ribs – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Xavien Howard (CB) – (Shoulder/Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Byron Jones (CB) – (Achilles/Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Preston Williams (WR) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• DeVante Parker (WR) – (Shoulder/Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Falcons

Matt Ryan has risen from the dead like the Undertaker as a viable GPP play. With the Falcons’ pace and passing rates rising weekly, he averaged 42.3 passing attempts, 292 passing yards, and 2.5 touchdowns over his last four games. In the last two weeks, he’s averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. The Dolphins continue to underwhelm as a pass defense ranking 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), allowing the third-most passing yards (1,845), tenth-highest yards per attempt (7.9), and sixth-most passing touchdowns (13). In recent seasons, Ryan has been eaten alive by pressure, but he has a good chance for clean pockets in Week 7. The Falcons have allowed him to see pressure on only 24.2% (18th) of his dropbacks, and the Dolphins are 25th (22.3%) in pressure rate this year. 

This week’s matchup against the Miami Dolphins is a plus one for Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis. Miami is 11th in gash rate (10.7%) and rushing yards allowed (752). The Dolphins rank dead last in open-field yards allowed. Taking the glitz and glam away from the big plays and three-touchdown games, we find that while Patterson has drawn more targets, the routes and red-zone opportunities favor Davis over the last three games. 

Weeks 3-5

Weeks 3-5

The touch counts have also been similar. Patterson has been more productive with his opportunities, but Davis also has 61 or more total yards in two of his last three games. In his last game, Patterson saw his snaps rise to 59%, with Calvin Ridley sidelined (42%, 30% in previous two games). His snap rate as a wide receiver bumped accordingly from 32.6% of his snaps to 47.8%. Davis has seen a consistent 60-67% snap percentage across all three games. With Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage both practicing in full and back for Week 7, Patterson could see his usage decline to previous levels. In Weeks 1-4 with Ridley playing Patterson saw a 13.2% target share. It dropped even further to 9.5% when both Ridley and Gage were active in the first two games of the season. 

Both players are worth taking shots on in GPPs, but if picking one for this week, I’ll side with Davis. Patterson’s price has been hiked through the roof (RB8, $6,300, DraftKings; RB4, $8,000, FanDuel) while Davis is now a screaming value (RB23, $5,200; RB16, $6,300). The touch counts are nearly identical, but the red-zone usage leans to Davis. For a similar workload, give me the discount on Davis, who is primed for regression. I’m channeling my best TwoGun impression as I’m in on Mike Davis. 

In Weeks 1-4, Calvin Ridley saw elite usage with a 27.2% target share and 47.2% of the air yards. Ryan stacks or game stacks with a Falcons bringback begin with Ridley. Despite missing a game, he’s tied for second on the team with seven red-zone targets. Ridley will run close to 80% of his routes against Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on the perimeter. Howard has had a rough 2021 so far, allowing a 62.5% catch rate and 124.6 passer rating. He’s given up five receiving touchdowns in his coverage. Jones has been only slightly better, giving up a 62.1% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating. Russell Gage is likely back this week, but he’s not a primary must-have in this game. In Weeks 1-2, when active, he saw a 10.5% target share and only one red-zone target. 

Kyle Pitts is the second option in this passing game. In Weeks 1-2, he commanded 18.5% of the targets (26% air yard share). Overall, he’s seen 17% of the targets this year and leads the team with eight red-zone targets. Miami is 20th in DVOA against the tight end position. They held Darren Waller in check with five receptions (seven targets) and 54 scoreless yards. Mo Alie-Cox, though, turned his five targets into three receptions, 42 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. Pitts leads the team in slot snaps and will tangle with Nik Needham on the inside. Needham is allowed a 77.7% catch rate and 94.9 passer rating. Ridley is the starting point if you’re looking to double-stack Ryan, but after him, Pitts and Davis are my leans. 

Dolphins

After the mid-week scare of depth chart-gate and Deshaun Watson rumors, Tua Tagovailoa is still the starting quarterback for the Miami Dolphins entering Week 7. Tagovailoa played quite well in his return to the starting lineup in Week 6 and is primed to stack back-to-back standout games. Last week against the Jaguars, Tagovailoa had 329 yards passing while completing 70.2% of his passes with 25.4 DraftKings points (22.4 FanDuel). That type is replicable against a burnable Falcons secondary. After a meeting with Zach Wilson and a bye week, Atlanta’s counting stats give them more credit than they deserve as a pass defense. They are 15th in yards per attempt (7.5) and 14th in adjusted completion rate (76.0%) allowed. Holding Zach Wilson to 4.5 yards per attempt and a 59.3% completion rate can help when we are still working with small samples. The Falcons are still 30th in pass-defense DVOA and zooming in further. They are 29th and 27th against deep and short passing. Tagovailoa has GPP-winning upside in this beautiful matchup. 

Staring at this backfield usage makes my eyes bleed. Chalk it up to lessons learned the hard way (RIP Week 4), but Brian Flores, you won’t sucker me into the Myles Gaskin trap yet again. The early-down usage is spread out between all three of these backs. While Gaskin has the passing-game usage to fall back on, he will contend with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed in the red zone. Gaskin also registered zero targets in Week 4, so even the floor for his target share can bottom out with the drop of a hat. 

Full season usage

The Dolphins passing attack will flow through three main players, assuming DeVante Parker is back this week. Parker, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki will lead the way. In Weeks 1-4, Parker was the No. 1 receiving option with a 23% target share and 40.5% of the air yards. Parker led the receiver room in weighted opportunity. Parker will run 90.2% of his routes against A.J. Terrell and Fabian Moreau. This season, Terrell has been a tough draw, allowing a 37.5% catch rate and 45.8 passer rating. Moreau, however, has been a sieve giving up a 70.8% catch rate and 130.6 passer rating. Parker leads the team with a 42% end zone share. 

With Parker on the field, Waddle has a 20.5% target share (20.8% full season), running 71.4% of his routes from the slot. Waddle has seen 14% of the end zone targets and leads this trio with a 25% red zone target share. He’ll match up with rookie Darren Hall in the slot, which has allowed both targets in his coverage to be secured and a 110.4 passer rating. 

Since Week 3, Gesicki has asserted himself in this offense with a 20.7% target share and 25.5% of the air yards. Over those four games, Gesicki has averaged 8.5 targets, 6.8 receptions and 75.3 receiving yards per game. The only flaw in his usage is his touchdown equity in this offense, as he hasn’t seen an endzone target and has only 10% of the red-zone targets. The Falcons are 17th in DVOA against tight ends and have been giving against top-tier tight ends. In Weeks 1-2, Rob Gronkowski and Dallas Goedert averaged five targets, four receptions, and 40.5 receiving yards against Atlanta, totaling three touchdowns (Gronkowski 2, Goedert 1). Gesicki is a good bet for the yardage, but if he can manage a score this week, he’ll be one of the best plays of the slate.

DFS Plays

Core plays: Calvin Ridley, Mike Gesicki
GPP only: Matt Ryan, Mike Davis, Kyle Pitts, Tua Tagovailoa, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

NE -7, O/U 42.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will not astound anyone with its pace. The Patriots are 22nd in neutral scripts, which will be pushed by New England, who is eighth. The Patriots are leading the way in passing rate here, ranking ninth (60.4%) in close games while the Jets continue to attempt to hide Zach Wilson. New York is 23rd (55.5%) in passing rate in neutral environments.

Injuries

New York

• Tyler Kroft (TE) – (Back – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• C.J. Mosley (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful

New England

• Davon Godcahux (DT) – (Finger – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Dont’a Hightower (LB) – (Elbow/Ankle – DNP / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Jonathan Jones (CB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Christian Barmore (DT) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Brandon Bolden (RB) – (Thigh – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Shaq Mason (OL) – (Abdomen – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jalen Mills (CB) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Josh Uche (LB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kyle Van Noy (LB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Jets

Zach Wilson gets a return engagement against the Patriots after face planting against them in Week 2. Wilson had 6.3 yards per attempt and tossed four picks in the game. New England has been torched in recent weeks, but this team is still allowing the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate (71.3%) and ninth-lowest passer rating (88.4) against. Wilson is in for a long day and his struggles will pull down the projections for the rest of these offensive skill players. 

Over his last two games, Michael Carter has quietly taken over this backfield. This isn’t the week to consider him for GPPs, though. The Jets’ offensive line doesn’t stand a chance to open up holes for Carter. New York ranks 26th or lower in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards. Since Week 3, New England has allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, and they’re tenth in red zone rushing defense. 

Weeks 4-5

The only full-time receivers in play for any mini-stacks from this game are Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder. Elijah Moore (16 routes) continued to split routes with Keelan Cole (18 routes) in Week 5. Davis has a 20.4% target share and 33% of the air yard market share. Since Crowder’s return, Davis has seen two red-zone targets (Crowder’s five leads the team). Davis will run about 79% of his routes on the outside against J.C. Jackson and Jalen Mills. Jackson has allowed a 60.6% catch rate and 74.9 passer rating. Jackson could shadow Davis in this matchup. His resume below per our Shadow Index speaks for itself. Mills has been a bright spot for New England, allowing a 50% catch rate and 67.2 passer rating. 

**Update: with Jonathan Jones out Kyle Dugger (S) likely draws the assignment of slot coverage. Dugger has allowed four of his six targets covering the slot to be secured with a 47.9 passer rating allowed. This bumps Crowder down a peg.**

Crowder has seen a 21.5% target share since his return and will line up against Jonathan Jones. Jones has been the best matchup of the trio, which still isn’t saying much as he has given up a 65.2% catch rate and 84.7 passer rating. If you’re picking one receiver to stack with a Patriots’ player, Crowder is it. 

Patriots

This isn’t the game environment to consider rostering Mac Jones. With the low game total and the Patriots favored, Jones’ passing volume is likely neutered here. In the Patriots’ two wins (one of them coming against the Jets) he’s averaged 30 pass attempts, 208.5 passing yards with a 1:1 touchdown to interception ratio. The Jets have been better at defending the deep pass (18th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders) as teams have picked them apart underneath (29th in DVOA versus short passing). The Patriots could dink and dunk and lean on their ground game in Week 7. 

Damien Harris is still the clear backfield leader here, but as we have become accustomed to, it’s for his rushing equity and nothing else if you’re playing him. This season, Harris has been elusive, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt among rushers with 15 or more attempts. He is tied with Kareem Hunt and Joe Mixon for the fifth-most missed tackles forced (20). The problem for Harris is his offensive line has not been as prolific as we hoped coming into the season, and his volume has been hard-capped. New England is 27th and 28th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards generated. Harris has seen 20 carries (Week 1) only once this season, so if he’s only garnering 16-18 touches on the ground, he must be uber-efficient and score twice to be a smash play. The efficiency is possible against a defense ranked 24th in explosive run rate allowed, but the two scores might be difficult. The Patriots are tenth in red-zone passing rate (65.7%). This is a long-winded explanation to tell you that he is likely to finish with a stat line (16 rushes, 62 rushing yards, one touchdown) that closely resembles his Week 2 production, which, if that’s the case, he’s likely a bust. 

Week 6

Jakobi Meyers is the only Patriots receiver I’ll roster from what looks like a gross game environment. Meyers has a 25% target share and leads the team with a 27% first read share. The problem for Meyers remains his anemic red-zone role. He has yet to draw an endzone target and has a 16% red zone target share. He’ll run about two-thirds of his routes from the slot against Michael Carter, who has conceded a 66.6% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating. Mini-stacks from this game are large field tournament plays only. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Corey Davis, Jamison Crowder, Damien Harris, Jakobi Meyers

Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants

CAR -3, O/U 42.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will finish around the median for pace, as Carolina is 21st and New York is 15th in neutral-script pace. The passing rates will likely follow suit. Carolina is 21st (56.5%) in passing rate when the score is close. Matt Rhule has vowed to move back towards the run game, which could happen this week. In Weeks 1-3, the Panthers threw on 52.7% (Weeks 4-6, 59.8%) of their plays in neutral situations. Chuba Hubbard could dominate this game.

Injuries

Carolina

• Terrace Marshall (WR) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Shaq Thompson (LB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

New York

• Saquon Barkley (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Kenny Golladay (WR) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Kadarius Toney (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• John Ross (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Darius Slayton (WR) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Evan Engram (TE) – (Calf – / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Sterling Shepard (WR) – (Hamstring – / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Panthers

Despite the passing rate concerns, Sam Darnold makes it into the GPP pool. I likely won’t roster him in my single-entry or three-max builds, but in MME, I want exposure. The Giants have allowed the highest adjusted completion rate (82.3%), 1,653 passing yards (11th) and 7.9 yards per attempt (ninth) to opposing quarterbacks. They are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game (21.8) to the position. Their struggles reside with the deep ball as they are giving up a 65% (second highest) completion rate and 127.1 passer rating (second highest) on downfield throws. Darnold has only attempted deep passes on 10.7% (24th) of his passes, completing 37.5% (19th), but this is a good spot to improve on those numbers. The Giants will allow him time for his receivers to get deep as they are 31st in pressure rate (17.8%). 

Chuba Hubbard is in play for GPPs, but like Darnold, he’s more of an MME or large-field target. Hubbard has established himself as the leader of this running back room over the last two weeks. The reason I’m not as high on Hubbard this week is the matchup is one that he needs immense volume or to fall into the endzone twice to pay off. The Giants have given up the fourth-most rushing yards (823), but the author of this story has been the 182 rushing attempts (fourth highest) that they’ve faced. New York has been more middle of the road with big plays as they’re giving up the tenth lowest explosive run rate. If Rhule makes good on his coach speak, Hubbard can get there against a defense that’s 21st in stuff rate and 15th in red-zone defense. I won’t stack Hubbard with Darnold, but you can play him in a mini-stack with a Carolina receiver from this game. 

Weeks 5-6

DJ Moore and Robby Anderson are the core of the Carolina passing attack. Moore leads the team with ten deep targets, a 29% target share (40% of the air yards), and a 36% end zone target share. He’ll line up almost 85% of his routes outside against James Bradberry and Adoree’ Jackson. Bradberry is allowing a 72.2% catch rate and 114.2 passer rating. Jackson has been easily burnable, giving up a 70.6% catch rate and 110.2 passer rating. Neither one of these corners are players you should fear at this juncture. Anderson has seen an 18% target share (29% air yard market share) with 27% of the end zone targets. He is right behind Moore with nine deep targets. Since Week 4, the team has tried to get him involved as he’s averaging 9.6 targets per game. Anderson will spend close to two-thirds of his routes with Bradberry and Jackson in tow, but he’ll also slide inside (34% slot) to face Jabrill Peppers. Peppers has been a free pass conceding a 90.9% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating. Both of these receivers are viable one-offs. Terrace Marshall is dealing with a concussion and hasn’t been heavily involved (10% target share) to this point. 

Tommy Tremble (36 routes) and Ian Thomas (48 routes) split routes and targets. With the passing rate being a concern and neither of these players heavily incorporated (four combined red zone targets) into the red zone, the move is to focus on Moore and Anderson. 

Giants

This isn’t a matchup where I’ll look to Daniel Jones in GPPs. The Panthers are seventh in pass defense DVOA and 18th in adjusted completion rate allowed (74.8%). Carolina has given up the fifth lowest yards per attempt (6.6). The biggest concern for Jones is the Panthers’ love for blitzing. Phil Snow’s defense is second in blitz rate (34.1%) and fourth in pressure rate (28.6%). Jones has wilted against the blitz. He owns the fourth-lowest completion rate (53.8%) and sixth highest completion rate difference (-11.5%) versus the blitz. 

Devontae Booker has been New York’s do-it-all back since Saquon Barkley went down. Last week he played 72% of the snaps with 16 touches and 69 total yards. Booker’s snap rate should push closer to 90% this week if the Giants keep the game close. Last week, Elijhaa Penny entered the fourth quarter with only one touch, but he got run late as the team was blown out at that point 31-3. The Giants offensive line is atrocious, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards, but the Panthers’ run defense could help to mask their poor play this week. After starting the year off crushing opponents at the line, they have fallen off the table and now sit at 24th and 30th in second-level and open field yards allowed. Over the last three games, the Panthers are 32nd in explosive run rate allowed. They have given up the seventh-highest yards per attempt (4.5) and sixth-highest gash rate (12.4%) per FTN Data. Booker is a good value across all three sites (RB19, $5,500, DraftKings; RB23, $5,800, FanDuel; 1.6x score multiplier, SuperDraft) that can handsomely crush those price points with 20 touches.

Week 6

Sterling Shepard is a must in a mini-stack or as a one-off this week. In his three full games, he’s handled a 28.3% target share (28.6% of the air yards). Last week he played 72% of his snaps from the slot. This week he’ll line up against A.J. Bouye, who allows an 88.9% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating in slot coverage. 

**Update: With Shepard popping up on the injury report my favorite play now from the Giants side is Devontae Booker**

Dante Pettis is also viable as a game stack or MME target. Last week he played 69% of his snaps on the outside, seeing a 23% target share (30% of the air yards). He’ll draw coverage from Donte Jackson and Keith Taylor. Jackson has allowed a 64.5% catch rate and 85.3 passer rating. Taylor is giving up a 71.4% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating. Shepard and Booker are the primary targets from the Giants. 

Since his return, Evan Engram has done next to nothing, garnering a 13.7% target share and averaging 5.1 DraftKings points per game (4.3, FanDuel). The Panthers are seventh in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the position. They are ranked 20th in receiving yards (287) and 19th in receptions (25) allowed to tight ends. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: DJ Moore, Devontae Booker

GPP only: Sam Darnold, Chuba Hubbard, Robby Anderson, Dante Pettis, Sterling Shepard

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

BAL -6.5, O/U 46

Pace and playcalling

The Bengals have shown some life in the pace department over the last two weeks. After ranking 31st in pace in neutral scripts in Weeks 1-4, they have sped up enough to show a heartbeat ranking 21st over their last two games. The passing rate has followed this change, moving from 54.9% passing percentage in close contests to 62.1%. 

Baltimore is 26th in pace when the score is close. They continue to hover around 52.5% passing rates (28th) when the game is within eight points, but the curious factor that remains is their positive script passing frequency. While their passing percentage is among the league’s worst in neutral situations, they don’t adjust once they get up, and that leaves their passing rate with a lead among the league’s best. When Baltimore has been up by eight or more points, they are seventh (53.5%) in passing frequency. 

Injuries

Cincinnati

• Samaje Perine activated for the COVID-19 List. 

Baltimore

• Latavius Murray (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Alejandro Villanueva (OT) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Sammy Watkins (WR) – (Thigh – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Tavon Young (CB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Patrick Queen (LB) – (Thigh – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Bengals

Joe Burrow is in play for MME. He faces a pass defense that just destroyed Justin Herbert, but prior to that was extremely uneven. They are 13th in yards per attempt (7.7) allowed and sixth in passing yards surrendered (1,770). While Baltimore’s heavy blitz usage (fifth-highest, 32.0%) might appear worrisome for Burrow it’s actually a plus for him. Burrow has the third-highest blitz completion rate (79.5%) and is fifth in blitz passing yards (544). The pace of this game and Joe Mixon are my biggest concerns regarding limiting Burrow’s ceiling. 

Well, it’s time to eat crow. Zac Taylor was telling the truth last week: Joe Mixon handled 61% of the snaps with 23 touches and 153 total yards. Mixon ran a route on 50% of Burrow’s dropbacks. Mixon is in another good spot this week behind an improved offensive line. Cincinnati is ranked sixth and 11th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. Mixon gets to tee off against a Baltimore Ravens run defense that’s been Swiss cheese. They are 22nd and 19th in second-level and open-field yards allowed. The Ravens rank 31st in explosive run rate allowed surrendering the highest yards after contact per attempt (2.91) per FTN Data. Mixon is fourth in evaded tackles. He’ll catch passes against a Baltimore second level that is 29th in DVOA against pass catching backs. Mixon makes the core play list for Week 7. Samaje Perine’s activation from the Reserve/COVID-19 List shouldn’t affect Mixon’s workload. In Weeks 1-4, Perine averaged 3.1 touches per game and 19% of the snaps. 

Week 6

Ja’Marr Chase has led the way in the four games Cincinnati has had him, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd healthy. Chase has a 22.2% target share and 48.7% air yard share in those games. Chase leads the team with a 30% first read share and 50% of the end zone targets. Chase has run just over half (82% wide) from the LWR position, which should help him avoid Marlon Humphrey for most of the game. Chase will match up with Anthony Averett for most of the game, allowing a 61.4% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating. 

Higgins will move around the formation while seeing Humphrey for most of Sunday. Higgins has a 23.2% target share and 26% air yard share when he’s been active. Higgins is second on the team with 21% of the first read targets and 33% of the end zone targets despite missing two games. He’ll see Averett when not matched up with Humphrey (~68% out wide). Humphrey has given up a 51.5% catch rate and 89.8 passer rating. The Ravens moved Humphrey to RCB in Week 6 to match up with Mike Williams, but in every other game, he’s been nearly exclusive posted at LCB. 

Tyler Boyd has been the lowest player on the totem pole when all three are active. Boyd has seen a 17.5% target share (88.6% slot). Boyd hasn’t drawn an endzone target this season while seeing only one red zone look. Chase and Higgins are the priorities as I’m sadly leaving Boyd out this week. 

C.J. Uzomah has a 7.5% target share when all three wideouts are active. The blowup game for him was an outlier that we pegged correctly in showdown, but I won’t be chasing despite the healthy matchup for tight ends with Baltimore. 

Ravens

This will be one of the few weeks I’ll be staying away from Lamar Jackson in GPPs. The Bengals’ pass defense has been exceptional this season. They are allowing the lowest first read completion rate (57.4%), the third-lowest yards per attempt (6.5), and they’ve given up only six passing touchdowns (fourth fewest). They are also top 12 in DVOA (seventh vs. deep, 11th vs. short) against deep and short passing. Jackson’s productivity will have to come via his legs which is possible against a defense ranked 24th in open-field yards. 

Latavius Murry looks like he could miss this week, but regardless of whether he plays, I’m not rostering a Ravens running back. The Bengals are first in stuff rate (58.3%) and red zone rushing defense (32% success rate allowed). They have permitted only 543 rushing yards (ninth-lowest). 

Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman are the only Raven receivers worth mentioning. Brown is 20th among wideouts with a 23.8% target share (31.5% air yard market share) while leading the team with a 28% first read share and 46% endzone target share. Brown is tied with DeAndre Hopkins for second among all skill position players with seven end zone targets. Brown could draw a shadow from Chidobe Awuzie, who has allowed a 61.5% catch rate and 72.6 passer rating. Awuzie has been solid as a shadow corner this year before getting crushed by Davante Adams, but let’s be honest, it’s Davante Adams. If Brown doesn’t draw the shadow, he’ll spend around 77% of his routes (50% RWR, 27% slot) against Eli Apple and Mike Hilton. Apple is allowing a 63.6% catch rate and 90.0 passer rating. Hilton is conceding an 81.8% catch rate and 106.8 passer rating in the slot. Brown is a player worth considering in mini-stacks or game stacks because if Awuzie doesn’t follow him, he can smash this week. 

In his first NFL game, Bateman drew a 22% target share (22% air yard share) while running a route on 66.7% of Jackson’s dropbacks. Bateman lined up as the LWR on 60% of his snaps. If Awuzie doesn’t shadow then, Bateman will see him on approximately 60% of his routes, but if he follows Brown, then Bateman will draw Apple for most of the game. Bateman is game stack only. 

Mark Andrews is the most dependable piece of this passing attack and is a core play this week. Since Week 3, Andrews is second among tight ends in targets (34) behind only Travis Kelce. Over that span, he’s first in air yard market share (29.2%) at the position. The Bengals are 18th in DVOA against tight ends, and up until last week, they had not faced a tight end in the same area code talent-wise as Andrews. A banged-up T.J. Hockenson exposed this defense last with eight receptions (11 targets) and 74 receiving yards (zero touchdowns). Andrews is tied for first at his position with four end zone targets. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Joe Mixon, Mark Andrews
GPP only: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Las Vegas Raiders

LVR -3, O/U 48.5

Pace and playcalling

This game has the potential to be one the best for pace and passing on this slate. The Eagles are first and seventh (62.3%) in neutral pace and passing percentage. The Raiders are 11th and third (64.3%) in neutral situation pace and passing rate. The one wrinkle that could throw a wrench in the pace gears is what Las Vegas did last week. In their first game without Jon Gruden, they slowed to 20th in neutral pace while the passing rate (61.2%, ninth) stayed at a healthy level. 

Injuries

Philadelphia

• Dallas Goedert (TE) – (Illness – / DNP / LP) – Status: No Injury Designation

Las Vegas

• No notable injury designations.

Eagles

Jalen Hurts is GPP and cash viable this week. He carries an immensely high floor and ceiling every week with 21 or more fantasy points in every game. He’s currently the QB5 in fantasy averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. The Raiders have fallen off their pedestal over the last three weeks. They are currently 28th in DVOA against short passing. They allowed Teddy Bridgewater and Justin Herbert to complete 68.9% of their passes with a 6:3 passing touchdown to interception ratio. Hurts gets to face a defense ranked 27th in explosive run rate allowed that has already given up the sixth-most scramble yards (113). 

Miles Sanders is set to smash this week against a wretched Raiders run defense. The Eagles might have a lot of issues, but run blocking hasn’t been one of them. They are third and ninth in second-level and open-field yards. Volume has been the big issue for Sanders, not ability. He is still fifth in breakaway runs (5) and 11th in yards created per touch. He has seen his snap count rise in each of the last three games from 62% to 91% last week. The coaching staff has come out and said they want to get him going, and this is the perfect avenue to do so. The Raiders have allowed 784 rushing yards (eighth-most), seven rushing scores (fifth), and they have given up the eighth-highest gash rate (11.6%) per FTN Data. Sanders is one of my favorite GPP plays this week. 

The passing options to stack with Hurts are clear in this game. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the clear favorites. Smith has seen a 22.3% target share with 39% of the air yards. The only issue for Smith is his red-zone role, as he’s seen only 18% of the end zone targets and 6% of the red zone looks. Smith will run almost 90% of his routes on the perimeter against Casey Hayward and Brandon Facyson. Hayward has been elite this year, allowing a 42.9% catch rate and 53.1 passer rating in coverage. Hayward hasn’t been shadowing, and Smith should get equal time against Facyson, who has conceded a 69% catch rate and 102 passer rating over his career (42 targets). Smith is tied with Ertz for the team lead in short targets (17), so expect him to be a big part of how the Eagles attack this secondary. 

Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins have only seen 15.6% and 11% target shares in which 14.3% and 31% of those workloads have come via deep targets. The Eagles will need to work underneath to succeed against this secondary, so they don’t make the GPP exposures this week. 

If you are only single-stacking Hurts, then Goedert is the easy pick. The tight end position has accounted for 32% of the short area targets for the Eagles this season. With Zach Ertz in Arizona, Goedert takes over that mantle. Before missing a game due to COVID, Goedert saw an 11% target share, but with Ertz gone, that could push towards a 20% mark (Ertz, 13.6%). Goedert is tied for the team lead with a 20% red zone target share. The Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the tight end position. They’ve allowed 407 receiving yards (fifth most) and 41 receptions (second most). 

Raiders

Derek Carr is not a quarterback I’ll be rostering this week. Philadelphia is ranked 12th in pass defense DVOA. They have permitted 1,343 passing yards (eighth lowest) and 6.7 yards per attempt (sixth lowest). However, there’s a reason for hope to target elements of this passing game for mini-stacks or run-backs. The Eagles are fourth in adjusted completion rate allowed (79.4%) and have allowed the second-highest first read completion rate (76.0%). 

Since his return to the starting lineup, Josh Jacobs has established himself as the lead back for the Raiders. He’s a player I’ll roster in a game stack and possibly large-field tournaments, but he won’t make my single entry or three-max teams. Jacobs is in a good spot for a productive game against a Philly defense that begs opponents to run on them. The Eagles have given up 812 rushing yards (fifth most), a 42.5% stuff rate (eighth lowest), and a 10.8% gash rate (10th highest). Those are the glittering reasons to believe in Jacobs, but here are the worries. Jacobs is still operating behind an offensive line 28th and 29th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards generated. Over the last three weeks, he’s rushed for 3.2 yards per carry with 2.16 yards after contact per attempt while averaging only 14.3 rushing attempts per game. With that level of volume, you need efficiency to hit a GPP winning ceiling, and with only two runs of 10-plus yards, it’s difficult to envision this for Jacobs. If the team decides to bump his workload into the 17-20 carry range this week, there’s a path, though. 

Weeks 4-6

This week, Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards didn’t make the GPP list, as 38.7% and 44.0% of their target volumes have come from deep targets. The Eagles’ defensive approach is to funnel targets underneath, and it’s been working as they rank ninth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against deep passing, but they are 19th in DVOA against short passing. The two options that make sense in GPPs are Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller (GPP/cash). Waller leads the team in short area targets (29), followed by Renfrow. 

Renfrow has a 20% target share and is second on the team with a 19% red zone target share while running 61% of his routes from the slot. He’ll match up with Avonte Maddox in the slot, which has allowed a 65.2% catch rate and an 88.5 passer rating. 

Waller is set to crush this Eagles defense. Waller still has a 23.3% target share whiles leading the team with a 50% end zone target share and 34% red zone target share. The Eagles are 11th in DVOA against the tight end position, but they have allowed opposing tight ends to rack up 40 receptions (third-most) and five receiving touchdowns (tied for the most allowed). The Eagles’ defense lends itself for the Raiders to score their touchdowns through the air this week. Philadelphia is ranked 26th in red-zone passing defense, but they’re 12th in red zone defense against the rush. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller
GPP only: Miles Sanders, DeVonta Smith, Josh Jacobs, Hunter Renfrow

Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams

LAR -16, O/U 50.5

Pace and playcalling

The Rams are 13th and 11th (59.9%) in neutral-script pace and passing rate. The Lions are sluggishly 23rd and 29th (52.5%) in neutral pace and passing rate. The more relevant data for Detroit is their trailing metrics as they have run the second-most plays (193) in negative gamescript. Their pace increases when they are behind to seventh, and their passing rate is the fourth highest (77.7%). 

Injuries

Detroit

• Trey Flowers (DE) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• T.J. Hockenson (TE) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• D’Andre Swift (RB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Los Angeles

• Sony Michel (RB) – (Shoulder – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Lions

Jared Goff goes up against his former team, and the Rams are ranked fourth in pass defense DVOA. This won’t end well for Goff in Week 7, so no he’s not in the DFS discussion. 

Looking at the usage by situation metric per FTN Data, D’Andre Swift dominates the work when the team is in neutral situations and when they are trailing. They will be trailing this week. 

The only exposure I’ll have to Swift this week will be as a runback in my Rams stacks, if that. He will likely have to do his damage in the passing game to finish with a productive stat line. The Rams have allowed a 4.36 yards per attempt (12th highest), and they are 16th in stuff rate, but they are only allowing a 9.2% gash rate (ninth lowest), per FTN Data. As a player averaging only 10.8 carries per game, if his yards per carry is closer to his season average of 3.2 and not in the mid-four range, it will hurt him. The Rams are 19th in DVOA against pass-catching backs. They have surrendered 35 receptions and 268 receiving yards (both 10th most) to opposing rushers. Swift is tied for the team lead in target share (18%) and leads with seven red-zone targets. He’ll need a voluminous or hyper-efficient day as a receiver to likely exceed value. 

I’m not pinning my GPP hopes this week to a receiver group of Kalif Raymond, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Khadarel Hodge against this secondary. Over the last three weeks, each of these players has a vomit-inducing 0.57-1.63 yards per route run. St. Brown’s aDOT is only 7.2 yards since his Week 4 surge in target share. No, thank you. 

The only runbacks in this game are Swift or T.J. Hockenson. Hockenson has an 18% target share and 21% air yard share. He’s second on the team with a 19% red zone target share. The Rams are sixth in DVOA against the tight end position, but they have permitted 33 receptions (12th most) and 364 receiving yards (ninth most) to tight ends. 

Rams

Matthew Stafford is going to make Detroit sorry they traded him this week. The Lions are 25th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd against deep passing. They have allowed the second-highest adjusted completion rate (80.6%) and most yards per attempt (9.8). Stafford is ninth in deep attempts (27), sixth in deep completion rate (48.1%), and fourth in deep passing yards (507). Instead of chugging a post-game celebratory brew, Stafford should pop open a Dirty Blonde and enjoy every sip after Week 7’s action. 

Darrell Henderson is dominating the running back work for Los Angeles. Overall, he has the seventh-best opportunity share (73.5%) among running backs. He has played 80.6-96.0% of the snaps in his three full games with 19.6 touches, 103.3 total yards and 19 fantasy points per game. The Lions are 17th and 21st in second-level and open-field yards allowed. They have given up the seventh-most rushing yards (793) while also ranking 32nd in DVOA against pass-catching backs. Detroit has allowed opposing backs to roll up 255 receiving yards (12th) and six receiving touchdowns (first). Henderson is a core play in cash and GPPs. 

Cooper Kupp is an elite play every week. He’s the WR1 in fantasy with the second-highest target share (34.8%) and third highest weighted opportunity among wideouts. Kupp will run around 70% of his routes from the slot against A.J. Parker. Parker has allowed an 87.5% catch rate and 144.5 passer rating. 

Robert Woods has garnered a 22.3% target share and 23% air yard market share this season. If you take out his blowup Week 5, the problem for Woods is that his target share drops to 18.8%. He’ll run around two-fifth of his routes as the RWR against Jerry Jacobs and then kick inside for just over a third of his routes against Parker. Jacobs has given up a 70% catch rate and 112.5 passer rating in coverage. Woods is third on the team with a 23% end zone target share and 21% red zone target share. The second player in both of those metrics is Tyler Higbee (30%, 27%). Woods feels a bit pricey (WR9, $6,400, DraftKings; WR15, $6,800, FanDuel) for a player with only one game over 20 fantasy points. He’s fine in a double stack with Stafford in large-field tournaments, but I won’t include him if Stafford is on my main lineup. 

Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson are only MME plays. Jefferson has a 13.2% target share, and Jackson has seen a 7.7% target share. Jackson is second in deep targets (six, 46.2% of his target volume), while Jefferson is tied with Woods for third with three. Jefferson will run around half of his routes against Amani Oruwariye. Oruwariye has conceded a 70.8% catch rate and 81.6 passer rating. Jackson will see Jacobs and Oruwariye an equal amount on his handful of routes. 

Tyler Higbee is my favorite stack partner with Stafford if you’re going the route of Henderson after pairing with Kupp. Higbee has a 12.8% target share and ran a route on 94% of Stafford’s dropbacks last week. His red-zone usage is second on the team behind only Kupp. This week he faces a Detroit Lions’ defense ranked 32nd in DVOA and has faced only one notable receiving tight end so far. Mark Andrews had no issues turning his five receptions into 109 receiving yards. Higbee has sunk to massive value levels (TE9, $4,500, DraftKings; TE10, $5,500, FanDuel; 1.65x, SuperDraft) across all three sites. Higbee is currently projected at 4.1% (DraftKings) and 6.6% (FanDuel). At those roster percentages, I’ll find ways to add him to my Stafford stacks. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp
GPP only: D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, Tyler Higbee

Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals

ARI -17.5, O/U 47.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be a middling pace game as Arizona is 17th in neutral pace followed by Houston at 19th. The passing rate for both of these teams is not great, which might surprise people to hear about the Cardinals. Arizona’s passing rate has trickled down, and they now sit at 22nd (56.0%), with Houston looking up at them at 27th (54.5%). 

Injuries

Houston

• Nico Collins (WR) – (Foot – – / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Arizona Cardinals

• Jordan Hicks (LB) – (Toe/Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Chase Edmonds (RB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Injury Designation

Texans

Another week, another chance to write up Brandin Cooks as the only Texan I care about. Cooks leads all receivers in weighted opportunity while sitting at third in target share (33.5%) and first in air yards share (51.7%). Cooks will run 71% of his routes against Robert Alford and Marco Wilson. Alford has allowed a 58.6% catch rate and 81.0 passer rating. Wilson continues to be the weak link in Arizona, giving up an 80% catch rate and 146.5 passer rating. If Cooks has a big day, it’s because he burnt Wilson on a handful of routes. Cooks is in play as a runback or in a mini correlation. 

Cardinals

Kyler Murray is worth paying up for in GPPs or cash this week. He’s currently the QB4 (25.2) in fantasy points per game with four games above 22 fantasy points. This year, Murray has been doing his damage as a passer, surpassing 20 rushing yards in only two games (31, 39). The Texans will allow him to reach a ceiling performance without utilizing his legs. Houston quietly allows the highest completion rate (66.7%) on deep passes, but this hasn’t been exploited this year as they’ve seen the second-lowest deep attempts (15). Murray is going to change that. He is seventh in deep attempts and is tops in deep completion rate. 

Weeks 5-6

**Update: Chase Edmonds doesn’t carry an injury designation this week, so he’s worth sprinkling in MME. Teams lie all the time on theses injury reports though, so I think the fact that he was still limited at points in this week is more telling on his overall health than the designation he carries with this game. The spread and game script still favor Conner.**

Chase Edmonds popped up on the injury report before Week 5 with a shoulder ailment. Since that time, the Cardinals’ backfield has shifted in favor of James Conner. The Cardinals are heavy favorites, and looking at the usage by situation report for this backfield, Conner dominates the rushing share when the team is leading. Arizona doesn’t need to push Edmonds to crush this Texans team. Murray can float long bombs to get this team up, and Conner can salt away the clock to a nice day in DFS. The Texans are 31st in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards. They have been gashed for 848 rushing yards (second) and 11 rushing touchdowns (second). Houston is also 23rd in explosive run rate allowed. Conner is eighth in red zone rushing attempts (17) and fourth (six) in rushing totes inside the 5-yard line. Conner makes the most sense in onslaught Arizona builds, but he can also be played as a one-off. 

Arizona’s three main wide receivers last week continued to be DeAndre Hopkins (31 routes), A.J. Green (29 routes) and Christian Kirk (26 routes). Rondale Moore (18 routes) remains a part of the weekly game plan, but he’s still the fourth option here. Looking at how the Cardinals will attack this secondary with deep passing, Hopkins is the primary stacking option with Murray. Hopkins leads the team with nine deep targets. Zooming in further to the last three weeks, Hopkins (seven) has a sizable lead over Green and Kirk (each has two). Hopkins leads the team with a 20.8% target share and 34.3% of the air yards. Hopkins is also the clear leader below in end zone target share and red zone target share. Hopkins will face off against Vernon Hargreaves, who has allowed a 70.5% catch rate and a 108.0 passer rating across 390 career targets.

If you’re double-stacking pass catchers with Murray, Green is the next receiver I’ll roster. Green barely nudges Kirk out of the way in target share (17.3% vs. 17%), but he also bests him in end zone target share (26% vs. 20%) and red zone target share (23% vs. 8%). Green will tangle with Terrance Mitchell, permitting a 59.3% catch rate and 95.0 passer rating. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins
GPP only: James Conner, Brandin Cooks, A.J. Green

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -11.5, O/U 47

Pace and playcalling

Tampa Bay has put the brakes on their race car pace over the last two weeks. In Week 1-4, they were fourth in neutral-script pace, but since then, they have been 31st in pace in close games. That’s not something I was expecting to find when I pulled up these two teams. This is notable because the Bears are crawling along, ranking 32nd in close games, but they speed up to 16th when playing from behind since Justin Fields has taken over. The best hope for this game is Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead and forces the Bears to put their foot on the gas some. 

While Tampa Bay has been quirky with pace, their passing rate has remained constant as they are second (66.2%) in neutral situations. The Bears could surprise here in passing rate if the Buccaneers can gain a lead from the outset. Chicago has run the ninth-fewest plays in negative game script with Fields under center, but they are throwing on 70.2% when they have been behind. 

Injuries

Chicago

• Jakeem Grant (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Akiem Hicks (DL) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Khalil Mack (LB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Allen Robinson (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Darnell Mooney (WR) – (Groin – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Duke Shelley (CB) – (Ankle – / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Antonio Brown (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Lavonte David (LB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Rob Gronkowski (TE) – (Ribs – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• O.J. Howard (TE) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Jason Pierre-Paul (LB) – (Shoulder/Hand – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Richard Sherman (CB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Bears

It saddens me to say, but I still can’t roster Justin Fields in DFS. He’s yet to attempt 30 passes or throw for at least 250 yards or multiple scores in any game. Yes, he would need to do much more than this to make the DFS rosters, but if he hasn’t crossed these measurable lines then you know this isn’t even a close decision. 

The Buccaneers remain a top shelf run defense ranking fourth, ninth, and eighth in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards allowed. Tampa Bay has the eighth-best stuff rate and has allowed the least rushing yards (329) in the NFL. If there was any square peg meets round hold type of coaching staff that would try and run against this defense it’s Chicago. That said, I still can’t roster a running back from Chicago. 

Allen Robinson (39.0% LWR, 34.4% slot, 26.2% RWR) and Darnell Mooney (36.6% RWR, 30.8% slot) are both in play for GPPs. Robinson will see Jamel Deal when lined up as LWR who has allowed a 36.4% catch rate and 27.8 passer rating in coverage. When Mooney and Robinson are lineup in slot or RWR they face Ross Cockrell or Dee Delaney. Cockrell has allowed a 70% catch rate and 116.5 passer rating. Delaney has given up a 107.8 passer rating. With similar usage, a few more snaps against the beatable corners in this defense, and salary savings, if picking only one receiver to roster from Chicago it’s Mooney. 

Buccaneers

The Bears continue to dance along the razor-thin line of being exposed for the fraud pass defense they are. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the powerhouse passing attack to do so in Week 7, assuming Antonio Brown can suit up. Chicago is ranked sixth in pass defense DVOA, but they are 16th against short and deep passing. Chicago is allowing the eighth highest yards per attempt (8.0). Tom Brady can shred every corner not named Jaylon Johnson this week in another spot where he’s projecting as a sub 5% DFS play. 

Lombardi Lenny has been on a tear over his last three games, but this week’s matchup is one to avoid. Leonard Fournette has averaged 22.3 touches, 125.3 total yards, and a touchdown per game over his last three contests. Chicago has allowed the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt (2.29) and an 8.4% gash rate (10th lowest). Even when Tampa Bay reached the red zone, goal-line Lenny is likely to be stuffed against the NFL’s third-ranked red zone rush defense (38% success allowed). 

The primary stacking options with Tom Brady are Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. Mike Evans will likely draw a shadow assignment from Jaylon Johnson. Evans has an 18% target share with 30% of the air yard share. He leads this trio with 22% of the first read targets. Evans will run 62% of his routes (45% LWR) on the perimeter. Johnson followed Odell Beckham and Davante Adams on 74%-89% of their routes. Johnson has allowed a 46.4% catch rate and 60.0 passer rating in his coverage. Evans has played out of the slot on 37% of his routes, so Tampa Bay could try and hide him inside because Johnson has only seven snaps in the slot this season. With Brown out, this could happen.

This game sets up as a get-right game for Chris Godwin. Godwin has a 17% target share while leading the receivers with a 28% red zone target share. Godwin will run 67% of his routes from the slot against Xavier Crawford. Crawford has allowed an 85.7% catch rate and 146.7 passer rating in his career. Tyler Johnson now enters three wide sets for Tampa Bay. He will draw the best matchup on the board half of his routes against Kindle Vildor. Vildor has allowed a 66.7% catch rate and 129.9 passer rating in coverage this season.

There are too many affordable tight end plays on this slate to chase the minuscule target shares for Tampa Bay’s tight ends against a team ranked eighth in DVOA against the position. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Tom Brady, Chris Godwin
GPP only: Darnell Mooney, Tyler Johnson, Mike Evans 

Core DFS Plays

Quarterback

• Patrick Mahomes
• Jalen Hurts
• Matthew Stafford
• Kyler Murray
• Tom Brady

Running Back

• Derrick Henry
• Joe Mixon
• Darrell Henderson
• Devontae Booker

Wide Receiver

High Priced

• Davante Adams
• Tyreek Hill
• Cooper Kupp
• DeAndre Hopkins
• D.J. Moore
• Calvin Ridley
• A.J. Brown

Mid Priced

• Chris Godwin

Tight End

• Travis Kelce
• Mike Gesicki
• Mark Andrews
• Dallas Goedert
• Darren Waller

Favorite GPP Stacks

• Los Angeles Rams
• Arizona Cardinals
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Philadelphia Eagles