Week 13 lames: Silent assassin Hill kills Kamara's value

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 13 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

(93% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $7,600)
Matchup: vs. LAR
Vegas line/Total: LAR -3, 48.5

Among some parties, antiquated thinking still exists in the NFL. Just look at the lack of innovation many franchises adhere to. What Arizona did three years ago hiring Air Raid purveyor Kliff Kingsbury took stones. Even more so, sinking a top pick, one year removed from spending exorbitant draft capital on another passer (Josh Rosen) on a QB with the stature of a scatback was 10,000% #TeamHuevos. It also turned out to be a sagacious move. Though far from impeccable, Murray has become the most electrifying QB in the league not named Patrick Mahomes. He’s on pace for 1,000 rush yards and ranks top-10 in adjusted completion percentage, red-zone completion percentage and deep-ball passer rating. Who says size matters? The Dachshund of the Desert is a purebred talent for this air-heavy, multidimensional day and age of the NFL.

This week, however, the fleet-footed passer may not sprint off the blocks. The Rams are the neighborhood bully, a pugilistic defense out to blacken eyes and fantasy resumes. This season, they’ve allowed just 6.2 pass yards per attempt, 223.4 pass yards per game, 1.0 passing touchdowns per game and the fewest fantasy points to signal callers. Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones did achieve measurable success on the ground against them, a positive sign for Murray. Dial up pressure and he’ll surely scoot to 50-55 yards. However, his vertical production, which has suffered of late (3 pass TDs in his past three games) could again be suppressed, rendering him a suboptimal QB1 at best.

Fearless forecast: 224 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 2 turnovers, 51 rushing yards, 16.1 fantasy points

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

(96%; $7,000)
Matchup: vs. ATL
Vegas line/Total: NO -3, 46

Round peg. Square hole. Sean Payton is determined to force the cumbersome object, Taysom Hill, into the QB slot by any means necessary. Inserting the Vaudeville act into the starting lineup has benefited the Saints. They’re 2-0 since Drew Brees fractured the amount of ribs most never knew existed. Despite Hill’s QB7 adjusted completion percentage rank and rushing production during the span, he, by the eye test, underwhelmed. He displayed only adequate touch, missed open receivers and essentially resembled a plus version of a triple-option QB from (insert military academy), versus two exploitable defenses (Atlanta and Denver). Really, he’s a mix of Tim Tebow and the 2020 version of Lamar Jackson. Most consequently, Kamara, who has caught one pass in two weeks, is in the midst of a value slump.

Since the scheme was reconstructed to accommodate Hill’s skill set, Kamara will only continue to suffer. Two weeks ago against Atlanta he salvaged a 13-45-1 line, but because Latavius Murray’s downhill power style best complements Payton’s man-crush, the bruiser should continue to net ample action. The Falcons have steadily improved over the season. Highly gashable earlier this season, they’ve yielded a mere 3.57 yards per carry, 102.0 total yards per game, eight combined TDs and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. How far they’ve come. Bottom line, view him as a middling RB2 than the indisputable RB1 widely perceived.

Fearless forecast: 12 carries, 46 rushing yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 5.6 fantasy points

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

(87%; N/A)
Matchup: at BAL
Vegas line/Total: BAL -7, 50

Last Saturday, a pair of washed up Depends-donning boxers sporting bodies on par with your high school gym teacher stepped into the ring to feed those who love waxing nostalgic for a rock-bottom pay-per-view price of $49.95. What little did people know, it wasn’t Tyson/Jones that created a deafening social media buzz. No, it was the undercard match between former NBA hoopster Nate Robinson and YouTube star Jake Paul. What happened? In Round 2, Paul pulled his best Deebo from Friday and knocked the former All-Star the (expletive) out. The image of an unconscious Robinson immediately received the meme treatment.

For those who selected Zeke inside the top-three of fantasy drafts, they, laid out flat on the mat, can empathize with Robinson. The cherished running back was supposed to be a heavyweight, a reliable weekly prizefighter who levied uppercuts on the competition. However, RB23 since Week 6 averaging an unreliable 71.0 total yards per game with one measly touchdown, the rusher is the one who’s turned and decked his backers, leaving many to ponder whether he’s trustworthy with playoff appearances on the line. In brief, the answer is a resolute, “No!” Yes, the Ravens have come unraveled in the trenches, allowing 4.39 yards per carry and 97.4 rush yards per game to RBs over the past five weeks, but Dallas’ crippled offensive line combined with Zeke’s ongoing struggles (2.57 YAC/att, 14.5% missed tackle percentage), imply he’s flex material only.

Fearless forecast: 14 carries, 50 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 13 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.3 fantasy points

Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills

(97%; $6,900)
Matchup: at SF
Vegas line/Total: BUF -2.5, 48

In the middle of nowhere Utah, Bureau of Land Management agents, flying over a remote area to track and count a herd of bighorn sheep, noticed an unusual shiny object embedded on the red rocks below. Upon closer on-foot inspection, it was a metallic monolith — no description, no markings, no evidence how on earth it got there. Days later it vanished without a trace, an unsolved mystery not even Robert Stack could unravel.

For the second straight week, Diggs, Buffalo’s offensive pillar, could also disappear. To be fair, he’s profited handsomely for those who jumped on his discounted fantasy draft day price. Currently No. 4 in overall PPR production at wide receiver, he ranks inside the top-10 in target share (29.1%), completed air yards and yards per route run (2.33). Only once this season, Week 3 versus Jalen Ramsey, he failed to snag at least six passes in a game. Undoubtedly, the man, alongside Davante Adams, Keenan Allen and DeAndre Hopkins, is a certified consistency king.

San Francisco, however, presents a stiff challenge. With Richard Sherman, among others, finally back in the saddle, the Gold Panners pack a sharpened pickaxe. Whether against Jason Verrett (0.69 yards per snap allowed) or the former Legion of Boom member (0.21), Diggs is sure to be blanketed. As a unit, the Niners have yielded 6.9 pass yards per attempt, the seventh-fewest air yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per contest to WRs. His floor is likely six catches for 50 yards, but landing just above it is very buyable.

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.7 fantasy points

Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

(51%; $5,700)
Matchup: at CHI
Vegas line/Total: CHI -3, 44

Matt Patricia, pink slipped a season too late, is mercifully unemployed. Hired to revamp Detroit’s sickly defense, over three seasons he only increased its viral load. The Lions, comically inept in almost every facet attempting to thwart the opposition, are officially in rebuild mode. Overall, the coaching change matters little to Jones’ rest-of-season value. With Kenny Golladay’s timetable to return still undetermined, he should continue to see mammoth weekly target shares. Since Week 7, he’s the 12th-most valuable wide receiver in the virtual game amassing a 29-357-4 line. His 12.2-yard average depth of target over that stretch is also appealing.

In the battle for NFC North inferiority, how motivated the Bears defense is will ultimately determine whether Jones flourishes or flounders. Mentally sipping frozen drinks on a beach in the Lesser Antilles, Chuck Pagono’s group completely checked out last Sunday in Green Bay. When focused and willing, Chicago is one of the league’s premier pass defenses. This season, the Monsters of the Midway have allowed 6.8 pass yards per attempt, 16 passing TDs in 11 games and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Presumably drawing Kyler Fuller in coverage (70.5 passer rating allowed), Jones should be viewed as a middling WR3 in 12-team formats.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.6 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Aaron Jones, GB (Line: GB -9; DK: $7,200) — What’s annoying? The damn ‘Kars for Kids’ jingle. Once it hits the ears, it dominates the cerebral cortex for hours on end. What else? Matt LaFleur’s infatuation with Jamaal Williams. As Jones shredded the Bears’ weakened defensive line down Akiem Hicks, LaFleur plotted newfangled ways to subvert his premier rusher’s production. Though he finished with 90 yards on 17 carries, plentiful yards were distributed elsewhere. Infuriating. This week Jones and the Pack throw haymakers with Philadelphia, featuring a tough-to-penetrate rush defense. This year, the Eagles have surrendered 3.37 yards per carry, 111.0 total yards per game, 11 total touchdowns and the 11th-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Jones is a machete, but Philly’s front is a jungle thicket difficult to cut through. (FF: 14-48-0-4-32-0, 10.0 fantasy points)

RB: Giovani Bernard, CIN (Line: MIA -11; DK: $5,200) — When Joe Mixon was felled by a bizarre and undefined foot ailment, grand visions of double-digit Bernard performances instantly popped into fantasy GM heads. Historically, when elevated into the primary role, he thrived. However, the Bengals’ subpar offensive line, Bernard’s gross inefficiency and the recent downfall of Joe Burrow squelched dreams of persistent RB2 lines. He hasn’t registered a touchdown in three straight games, averaging a woefully mundane 50.3 total yards per game over the stretch. This week clashing with a surging Miami defense, he’s a flex-only option. The Dolphins have given up 4.5 yards per carry, 139.0 total yards per game and nine combined TDs on the year, but bringing a blitz 41.6% of the time, they should keep Brandon Allen in check, limiting exploitable opportunities for Bernard in the process. (FF: 12-42-4-28-0, 9.0 fantasy points)

RB: Todd Gurley, ATL (Line: NO -3; DK: $5,300) — ARTHRITIC KNEE!!! It’s a phrase screamed, yelled and blown through a bullhorn over the past couple years whenever Gurley’s name is mentioned in my presence. Though his tender appendage has remained mostly intact, the former rush king has remained mostly healthy this year. A steady TD scorer, he’s showcased vintage downhill power, finishing several runs with a thump. If he returns this week, don’t bank on explosive totals. New Orleans boasts one of the stiffest run Ds in the league yielding 3.46 yards per carry, 69.2 rush yards per game, three ground scores and the fewest fantasy points to RBs. Demario Davis alone has accounted for 21 tackles for loss versus the run, top-15 among all defenders. He’ll likely play more than the 47.1% snap share in the first matchup versus the Saints in Week 11, but a final tally outside the top-30 is a distinct possibility. (FF: 13-44-0, 1-6-0, 5.5 fantasy points)

WR: Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Line: KC -14; DK: $4,600) — Last week, Kendall Hinton lived out every football fan’s dream. After contact tracing wiped out Denver’s QB room, the incognito practice squad receiver, with most teammates not even knowing his name, was called upon in an emergency role to start under center. Similar to your overweight and overconfident cousin who, personality wise, reminds you of Uncle Rico from Napoleon Dynamite, Hinton’s execution went about as one would suspect — unbecomingly. And, for the record, Jerry Jones is off his rocker comparing the situation to the Cowboys with Ben DiNucci. Drew Lock, off the COVID-19 list, thankfully will be back at the controls, but it’s unwise to assume Jeudy will regain WR3 or better status. The rookie ranks No. 107 in catchable target percentage for the love of the fantasy gods. Additionally, Kansas City has done a marvelous job containing top targets, ranking No. 5 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs, including holding Jeudy to 4-2-20-0 in Week 7. (FF: 4-42-0, 6.2 fantasy points)

TE: Hunter Henry, LAC (Line: LAC -1; DK: $4,800) — At a position devoid of reliable weekly options, Henry has quietly delivered a steady stream of useful results. Over his last three contests only Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce have outpaced the Bolt. During that span he compiled 21 targets, 15 receptions, 145 yards and two touchdowns. His 28.6 red-zone target percentage and 10.2 average depth of target also registered since Week 10 are praiseworthy. He and his bad-haircut quarterback, who will somehow survive the post-locks chopping, Justin Herbert, have struck a consistent connection. Over his past three contests, Henry has lured 21 targets catching 15 for 145 yards and two TD, the third-best fantasy line at the position. The Patriots, however, could disrupt the bubbling chemistry. They’ve given up just one touchdown and the fifth-fewest fantasy point to TEs. (FF: 4-38-0, 5.8 fantasy points)