Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have our traditional Thanksgiving Day NFL DFS slate that features three games, all in the NFC. Every game is a divisional matchup which should lead to some extra edge to each contest. Even better is the fact that all six teams are still alive, even though the Packers and Commanders are hanging by a thread. Let’s talk about the games as a whole and for a full breakdown, make sure you read Adam Pfeifer’s Read Option on FTNFantasy.
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jordan Love sort of showed some signs of life for fantasy this past Sunday, as he threw for two touchdowns and scored closer to 20 points, but that’s the best you can say about him after the first three weeks. He’s not hit 20 DK points since Week 3 until this past week, and that was in large part due to the 300-yard bonus. His completion rate is still under 60% and despite sitting just 16th in attempts, he’s second in deep attempts. It doesn’t seem to matter that he’s not particularly efficient at the deep ball with just a 33.3% completion rate and a 2:4 TD: INT ratio. Detroit has also defended the deep pass well as they’ve only allowed one touchdown and the 13th-fewest yards. The Lions are up to 12th in DVOA against the pass and fifth in pressure rate at 33.9%, which could hold the key to disrupting Love. He only has a 40.2% completion rate when pressured this season and one touchdown. The salary is reasonable on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but I’ll bet we like other options better.
Running Back
I would not expect Aaron Jones to get back into the lineup this week, although he did avoid a major knee injury Sunday. It looked like it was a possible ligament tear so that is great news for Jones and the Packers. AJ Dillon would be the starter but my word, it’s not been a good season for him. Jones has only recorded double-digit carries in two games this year but Dillon is still just the RB41 in points per game. He’s outside the top 30 in both rushing and receiving yards so he has not exactly done well with the extra opportunity. Detroit is eighth in DVOA against the run and they’re tied for fourth in yards per attempt allowed. On top of that, the Lions are also 11th in defensive adjusted line yards so this would be a tough spot to get behind Dillon. I believe he’d be the least interesting “starting” running back on the slate.
Wide Receiver
The Lions have had their issues with keeping receivers in check this year, as they are 11th in points per game to the position overall. The spot where they hurt the worst is against the slot, since they are in the bottom 10 in points per game allowed to the slot receiver. Jayden Reed has occupied the slot for the Packers over 80% of the time and he played 69% of the snaps this past week, seeing three rushing attempts and six targets. Reed is second in target share in this offense at 15.5% and he has a 20.4% air yards share, which is nothing to shy away from. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs lead this receiving room in snaps but Watson is down to an 11.2% target share on the year. He’s exceeded 37 yards just once this season and it took a broken play 77-yard reception to do it. Given the role and production, I’m going to prefer Reed on both DK and FD. Seeing as how Doubs is the most expensive player in the receiver room, I’m not the likeliest to end there. He’s only WR39 although we will say that Cameron Sutton has the highest yards per route covered (1.07) and air yards per target (13.3) in the Detroit secondary. Dontayvion Wicks can be an MME option but the target share is under 10%, and he doesn’t always clear 35-40% of the snaps. If the Packers elect to try and spread the ball around a bit more in the potential absence of their starting tight end, that would make Wicks more appealing.
Tight End
It came out of left field Tuesday, but Luke Musgrave is dealing with an abdomen injury to the point where he went to the hospital after Sunday’s game. Tucker Kraft could enter the discussion as a punt since the Lions are 21st in points per game but also sixth in DVOA against the position. Kraft has only seen seven targets in five games so it’s a little hard to expect him to do a lot in an expanded role, but he does have five of those seven targets in the past two weeks. The biggest question is can he do enough to keep up with some of the other tight end options, but none of them are sure-fire players.
Quarterback
Jared Goff deserves credit for his hand in helping the Lions to a dramatic comeback win Sunday over the Bears, but he deserves a lot of blame for getting them into the hole as well. Goff threw for under 250 yards and three interceptions, the first time he’s done the latter all year. This matchup has some potential for him to put up an average fantasy number as the Lions are only 19th in pass rate in neutral scripts. On top of that, Green Bay has only allowed the third-fewest points per game to quarterbacks (although they are 23rd in DVOA against the pass). They have been hit much harder by running backs and the Lions are a team that is perfectly willing to ground-and-pound if the running game is effective. Perhaps nothing is more important for Goff than the play-action game. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks in play-action, Goff is fourth in passer rating at 125.7 with a 75.6% completion rate. However, Green Bay is second in passer rating allowed at 73.3. The Packers are also seventh in zone coverage rate this year and that represents an issue because Goff has an 82.0 passer rating against zone but 126.5 against man. There are some red flags here for Goff.
Running Back
I feel as though Week 11 might have been the clearest picture of what to expect from David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The snaps were slanted to Gibbs again at 56% to 40% and even though the Lions trailed, this is the second consecutive week the snaps have looked like that. Montgomery had 12 rushes and two targets while Gibbs had eight rushes but six targets and each back caught all their targets. The fascinating part is Gibbs has an 8-7 lead in red zone rushes and a 1-0 lead in targets so if Gibbs has an even share in red zone work and gets more targets, he’s going to be the preferred player for fantasy in theory. It also helps that Gibbs is 11th in yards per touch and fourth in breakaway run rate while Green Bay is 26th in explosive run rate allowed. The Packers are also 20th in DVOA against the run and 22nd in defensive adjusted line yards in addition to Detroit ranking first on the offensive side. This reads as a spot where Detroit should be able to push around the Green Bay defense and I will generally want one of the Detroit backs in a good portion of lineups. On DK, I don’t think it’s totally insane to play both in large-field GPP and hope Detroit just runs wild with both players.
Wide Receiver
The receiving options for the Lions seem about as set in stone as it can be for an NFL team, but let’s work backward here. There is a clear alpha in Amon-Ra St. Brown, but we’ll talk about him in a minute. Josh Reynolds is the third player on my list because even though he’s playing 72.9% of the snaps, the target rate is under 11% and he has just four red zone targets. Ideally, Jameson Williams continues to show growth as he played a season-high 65% of the snaps this past week. Now, he still only saw three targets so this is not a volume play but he plays on the opposite side of the field Jaire Alexander typically patrols or he’s in the slot. Carrington Valentine has allowed 12.0 air yards per target so the deep ball could be a weapon for Williams. Just know the floor is under 5.0 DK points.
St. Brown himself and he deserves it, but he will not be my top receiver on this slate. We’ll get to that in the next game but St. Brown has just been a rock for fantasy. He logged another 20-plus DK points against the Bears and he’s in the top 10 in just about every metric we value for receivers except for touchdowns. The receptions and the yards make up for that and he’s still in the slot around 43% of the time. Keisean Nixon is the slot corner for the Packers and he’s only allowed 4.6 air yards per target but I have zero fear about the matchup here. It helps when we see that the Packers are 27th in DVOA against the WR1.
Tight End
There is an interesting trend emerging with Sam LaPorta that could lead us to not play him this week. In the four weeks that both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have played, LaPorta has not seen more than five targets in any game. Green Bay is tied for the sixth-fewest points per game allowed to the position but oddly, they are just 25th in DVOA against tight ends as well. LaPorta has a 20.4% target share but those splits with the two backs being active are notable.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback
The Commanders are in a difficult position, since they were dealt a devastating loss Sunday at the hands of Tommy DeVito and the Giants. Now they have to come into Dallas and face a Cowboys’ defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the pass. Dallas is also one of four teams that have held their opponent to under a 60% completion rate and just an 80.0 passer rating overall. Washington has the second-highest pass rate in neutral scripts, so there is a reason that Sam Howell is leading the league in attempts on the year. The volume is not a question here but the matchup is going to be difficult. Howell does have the fifth-highest completion rate when he’s pressured and that’s going to be important. Dallas is second in pressure rate and despite the high completion rate, Howell has five interceptions compared to four touchdowns. Dallas is feasting on turnovers so even though Howell is likely to throw more than 40 times, you may have to bank on garbage time production.
Running Back
The status of Antonio Gibson looms large as far as how much we have to prioritize Brian Robinson. The former player missed Week 11 and allowed Robinson to take up 17 carries and nine targets en route to 20.1 DK points but we should keep in mind that Robinson had 24 targets coming into that game. Dallas also doesn’t stand out as a matchup to attack since they have allowed the eighth-fewest points per game to the position but they are down to 13th in DVOA, in fairness. While they’ve held the explosive runs in check at just 8.3% ( ixth-best), they’re 16th in stuff rate. It should be noted that the Cowboys have faced the 11th-fewest rush attempts since they’ve blown out so many teams. If you think that trend continues, Gibson would make the most sense if he’s active. He’s 11th in targets so he could see plenty of checkdowns if Howell is slinging it late in a comeback attempt. If Gibson is out, Robinson appears to be in line for enough volume to consider with his salary. Chris Rodriguez would be the change-of-pace back and handled seven touches with a 20% snap share.
Wide Receiver
Getting to a Washington receiver is not going to look great on paper, because Dallas has been excellent across the board. They have held all three receiver spots to under 10.0 points per game and they are in the top 10 in DVOA against the WR1, WR2 and WR3. Terry McLaurin leads this group with a 20.7% target share and a 29.6% air yards share but he’s also outside of the top 25 in points per game, so it’s not as though he’s been a dominant force. McLaurin is 14th in deep targets and 14th in unrealized air yards, but this doesn’t read as the matchup for things to get better. Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel are in play but Dotson especially seems wild to try and predict. After a stretch of three games with 26 total targets, he only has six in the past two games and has just three receptions, 23 yards, and a score. Dotson will likely see the most of DaRon Bland and McLaurin will see Stephon Gilmore but Bland has been better with 0.75 yards per route covered compared to 1.12 for Gilmore. Samuel will be in the slot and dealing with Jourdan Lewis but the 12.3% target share and the 6.2-yard aDOT is just not that inspiring.
Tight End
Logan Thomas has the third-most targets among the receiving options for Washington and he does have the best matchup on the board by DVOA since Dallas is 22nd. They are also just about the middle of the pack as far as points per game and yards allowed per game so perhaps this is the way to try and attack Dallas with a cheap player since Washington should be down early in this game. Thomas is the TE13 in points per game and he’s eighth in receptions with three scores. He’s seen at least five targets in each of the past four weeks, and he’s hit that threshold in every game that he’s started and finished except for two. The route participation is higher than last season at 73.2% and he’s been in the slot around 43% of the time. It’s not the best tight end slate and we have some priorities to spend, so Thomas makes sense to me with his usage and projected game script.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott is coming off his worst fantasy game in weeks since the Cowboys led the Panthers for so much of the game but he still threw two touchdowns. This matchup is one of the best on the board as Washington has taken over 32nd in DVOA against the pass while Dallas is seventh in pass rate in neutral scripts. Prescott is third in completion rate on the deep pass, sixth in yards, and tied for third in touchdowns. No team has allowed more touchdowns than Washington on the deep ball and only the Bengals have allowed more yards. Additionally, Washington has allowed the most touchdown passes in the league at 21 and the most points per game. It simply doesn’t get much better for Prescott, so we should expect him to be the second-most popular quarterback at the worst. It’s between Prescott and Brock Purdy in the next contest.
Running Back
If we think Dak Prescott is super chalky, I wonder what the field does with Tony Pollard. I expect the Detroit options to take up plenty of attention and Christian McCaffrey looms as a Mjolnir-sized late-night hammer. It could open up Pollard as a pivot since he’s been rather disappointing this season. The discourse would have been at full boil if he hadn’t ripped off a 22-yard touchdown run against the Panthers and it’s probably worth pointing out that the volume has been a little bit less in these past few games. Pollard has only cleared 15 carries twice and not since Week 3 but he did at least see five targets on Sunday.
Pollard is not in the top 10 in either rushing or receiving yards, but he does see a solid matchup once again. Washington is allowing the eighth-highest yards per attempt, they are 14th in adjusted line yards, and 10th in DVOA. That last number has been slipping and they did just allow 140 scrimmage yards to Saquon Barkley. Rico Dowdle is in play as a punt option, especially if you think the game gets out of hand. He’s recorded 22 touches in the past two weeks and has earned some carries, while I continue to be firm in the idea Pollard topping out at 15 carries plus 4-5 targets is the best thing for him, and maintaining some type of explosiveness.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb had a mediocre fantasy day on Sunday but he has to be ecstatic about his matchup this week. Only one team has allowed more points per game to the wide receiver and Washington has been positively shredded by the position overall. Before this past week, Lamb had seen 14, 16 and 14 targets in three games while Lamb has climbed into the top five in yards, receptions, yards after the catch, deep targets and yards per route run. Lamb moves all over, but he does spend most of his time in the slot against Benjamin St-Juste, who allows 1.34 yards per route covered. Washington has not shown the slightest ability to stop receivers so far, let alone an elite option such as Lamb.
I would put Brandin Cooks as a player who can break the slate if things go right. He scorched the Giants for over 30 DK points in Week 10 and then mostly disappeared in Week 11 with just four targets. However, Cooks has the highest aDOT on the team at 12.1 yards, compared to 10.3 for Lamb and 11.3 yards for Michael Gallup. Cooks has two fewer targets but one less game than Gallup and Washington has been a victim of the deep ball repeatedly. Cooks also has routinely played more snaps as Gallup has played less and less. Jalen Tolbert has been the player that has benefitted with over 40% of the snaps for four straight weeks. He’s only a dart throw in large-field MME, but he’s just $3,100 on DK and the snaps aren’t terrible for someone that affordable. I believe Cooks has the highest upside of any receiving option that is $4,500 or less on DK.
Tight End
The Cowboys faked out everyone by throwing a touchdown to Luke Schoonmaker last week, setting up Jake Ferguson managers for a bitter disappointment. Ferguson only had three receptions for 32 yards but he is still the TE9 in points per game and he’s still leading the position with 17 red zone targets. Somehow, Ferguson has turned that into just four touchdowns and the matchup doesn’t stand out as anything special. The Commanders are 15th in DVOA and about the same in points per game allowed, but some of that likely stems from not being able to stop any receiver. If the wideouts are constantly open, tight ends become less of a priority. Ferguson makes the most sense if you’re playing Dak Prescott to try and get that touchdown because if he doesn’t score, he may not be too exciting for fantasy and he’s running a route less than 70% of the time.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
If Dak Prescott is not the most popular quarterback, it’s going to be Brock Purdy. He was utter chalk Sunday and he smashed so folks have a good feeling when clicking his name but most importantly, the 49ers are healthy. Purdy is back to having to be smart and put the ball in the right place without having to elevate a short-handed offense, which is the best scenario for him. Seattle is just 24th in DVOA against the pass and they have faced the seventh-fewest play-action attempts. That makes them harder to figure out but Purdy has the best passer rating in the league in play-action at 151.5 to go along with nine of his 18 touchdown passes. You can argue that Purdy should be throwing a play-action pass on a lot more than 21.2% of his attempts. Purdy is also third in points per dropback despite negligible rushing production, which is impressive. The largest issue could be if Seattle can push Purdy to throw the ball a ton if Geno Smith is unable to play, but you can argue that Dak Prescott could have the same issue.
Running Back
I’d have to expect that if you play a lineup without Christian McCaffrey, there is a solid chance that you’re going to fall in the standings. McCaffrey has been one of the most reliable players in fantasy this season with only two games under 20 DK points, which has led him to be the RB1. He’s third in carries, second in targets, first in total touchdowns, first in rushing yards and first in receiving yards. Since DK tends to make these slates a little softer in pricing, he’s also under $9,000 so he’s going to project amazingly. Seattle is 16th in DVOA against the run but 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 22nd in stuff rate, and 27th in points per game allowed. There is not much of a sound argument to fade on DK, but FD is maybe a bit more of a discussion. He’s around his normal salary on FD so you may need to sacrifice something to get to McCaffrey.
Wide Receiver
It’s not always comfortable playing a receiver from the 49ers when the whole offense is healthy because it gets a little more difficult to predict. Judging by how they line up the most, Deebo Samuel is going to get the “easiest” matchup against Tre Brown. He’s allowed 1.08 yards per route defended and 13.1 air yards per route which are unquestionably the worst marks in the Seattle secondary. Samuel lines up on that side of the field almost half of the time and he’s coming off a much quieter game on Sunday. Folks could chase the game logs even though the Seahawks are 30th in DVOA against the WR2 compared to 14th against the WR1. Samuel also runs 18% of his snaps from the slot and the Seahawks are in the bottom five in points per game allowed.
Brandon Aiyuk smashed last week on the back of a 76-yard touchdown and he leads the offense with a 23.6% target share and a massive 43.7% air yards share. That is arguably the biggest advantage he has over Samuel because the 14.98-yard aDOT is double the 7.1-yard more for Samuel. It’s an interesting spot because Aiyuk should see the most of Riq Woolen, who has allowed the lowest air yards per target at 9.7. Aiyuk is enjoying a breakout season so far, but he’s also just 39th in unrealized air yards, so that portion of his game has been a little lucky. I’m not terribly interested in Jauan Jennings even though the slot is the weakness for the Seahawks. San Francisco has to feed McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and tight end George Kittle, so Jennings only has a 9.3% target share on the season.
Tight End
One of the spots I’m struggling with the most on this slate is George Kittle. He’s a player I love watching and a fellow wrestling aficionado, so he’s always going to be a cool guy in my book. He’s also been scorching hot on the field, scoring at least 23.6 DK points in each of the past three weeks. Kittle has 24 targets, over 300 yards, and two touchdowns so that sounds like a player I shouldn’t be struggling with, right? Well, the holdup is the fact that Aiyuk and Samuel are both healthy and playing. Since 2021 when Aiyuk became a full-time player, the splits for Kittle are eye-opening –
Seattle is 14th in points per game and 23rd in DVOA against tight ends, so it’s not a bad matchup. Kittle is also still running a route on 84.2% of the attempts, which is the highest amount in the last three years. Still, those splits make me lean into playing Kittle in San Francisco stacks only and hoping that he breaks his much larger trend over the past two and a half seasons.
Quarterback
It appears Geno Smith is going to be able to suit up for this game, even though he was forced from Sunday’s game for a time with a right arm issue. Even if he’s active, I’m not sure he’s going to be the most appealing target at the position. Smith is barely in the top 20 quarterbacks for points per game and only 20th in points per dropback. San Francisco is also sixth in DVOA against the pass and fourth in points per game allowed. The biggest positive aspect for Smith is he’s been better against zone coverage with a 96.3 passer rating. Even then, the touchdown rate is 4.7% against man coverage versus 2.0% against zone and the 49ers play zone at a top-five rate in the league. Smith is coming into this game with some type of injury, San Francisco has been a strong defense all year, and he may not offer enough (even at such a low salary) to be viable on a small slate.
Running Back
If Kenneth Walker is not able to suit up for this game, Zach Charbonnet might just represent the cheapest starting running back on this slate. Walker left Sunday’s game after just 11% of the snaps and was listed as doubtful to return almost immediately. Pete Carroll said it’s a legitimate oblique injury but he is not an IR candidate at this time. That latter part is good news but it’s still hard to believe that Walker can play on the quick turnaround. Charbonnet hardly left the field with 85% of the snaps and he recorded 21 touches, which is the type of volume we crave. It’s also interesting that San Francisco is just 23rd in DVOA against the run, 25th in stuff rate and 21st in adjusted line yards defensively. Oddly enough, they’re 10th in points per game allowed. Some of that has been they’ve faced the second-fewest carries per game but they’ve faced the sixth-most targets per game. I think the chalkiest build for running back is likely to be McCaffrey, one of the Detroit backs, and Charbonnet but we’ll see what happens close to lock.
Wide Receiver
I’d bet it would come as a surprise to most people that San Francisco is in the bottom 12 in points per game against all three receiver spots, including the bottom five against left receivers. It is odd to see the 49ers rank 10th in DVOA against the WR1, but DK Metcalf lines up on the left side 60% of the time, so he has my attention. Ambry Thomas has only defended a little over 100 routes but has allowed 1.23 yards per route defended. He’s only the WR32 in points per game but he’s still fourth in red zone targets and seventh in air yards share but it just hasn’t clicked. It would be a surprise if Seattle didn’t have to throw plenty in this game but you certainly can’t have a lot of confidence in playing Metcalf. This whole offense has taken a large step backward and Metcalf is virtually in a dead heat with Tyler Lockett I target share at about 22.5%.
This season has seen Lockett be much better when faced with zone coverage since he has a 97.8 passer rating compared to 84.4 against man coverage. The 49ers play zone coverage at a top-five rate in the league and Lockett has the edge in fantasy production since he’s the WR26 in points per game. He has 11 red zone targets himself and is also 18th in receptions, so there is more of a floor involved with Lockett. He’ll deal with Charvarius Ward the most, who has only allowed 0.89 yards per route defended. We can also consider Jaxon Smith-Njigba in deeper tournaments since he hasn’t dipped under 62% of the snaps since Week 4. The usage has just been frustrating since he only has a 6.1-yard aDOT, so that’s tougher to get excited about, even though Deommodore Lenoir in the slot has the highest yards per route defended at 1.45. At least the 49ers are 22nd in DVOA against the WR3, which is their lowest mark against any type of receiver.
Tight End
Talk about playing tight end roulette. The Seahawks play all three of Will Dissly, Noah Fant, and Colby Parkinson 34% of the snaps or higher but only six teams target that position at a lower rate than Seattle. Fant leads in target share but that’s faint praise since he only has a 6.8% target share and he only has one red zone target. Parkinson leads the group with four but then he also has a 5.6% target share so there just isn’t a lot here. If that wasn’t enough, San Francisco is fourth in DVOA against the position and tied for sixth in points per game allowed. It’s hard to make any realistic argument even on a three-game slate.
Defense/Special Teams Ranking
- Dallas Cowboys
- Detroit Lions
- San Francisco 49ers
- Green Bay Packers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Commanders
Core Plays
DK Core Plays
CeeDee Lamb
Jayden Reed
Jahmyr Gibbs
Zach Charbonnet (assuming Kenneth Walker is out)
Logan Thomas
FD Core Plays
Dak Prescott
CeeDee Lamb
Jayden Reed
Deebo Samuel
Zach Charbonnet
