Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry.
Here are some details on the Week 12 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 12 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 12’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
Patrick Mahomes with Travis Kelce and Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs (Kansas City Chiefs/Las Vegas Raiders)
You’re definitely not going to get Travis Kelce this week if you don’t have the first or second pick, but if you get him, I think the right play is to also draft Patrick Mahomes if he’s still available on the way back. Worst case, you can pair him up with either Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs with no problem. These Raiders/Chiefs matchups tend to have a lot of fireworks. Over the last three seasons, we’ve seen the following totals: 44, 59, 57, 55, 66 and 72. You could argue that it’s pretty likely to be on the low end of those numbers given the Chiefs’ vast improvement on the defensive side and the Raiders struggles at quarterback, but the history is still strong.
C.J. Stroud with Tank Dell, Houston Texans
Tank Dell used to be the diamond in the rough that would be undrafted yet carry lineups to a top 1% finish in these Battle Royales, but he’s currently being drafted toward the end of the first round. If you draft Dell, you can pair him with C.J. Stroud pretty easily considering he’s the QB4 right now, and that’s appealing considering this week’s Battle Royale has a smaller QB pool thanks to the Thanksgiving games, Black Friday games and bye weeks.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, and Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Derrick Henry is a player I am really interested in rostering in a traditional DFS format this week, but in the Battle Royale, he’s probably being drafted in a very appropriate spot as the RB7. The Panthers’ defense is a dream matchup for any opposing running back and is the type of matchup that can rejuvenize Henry’s entire season. They are the 32nd-ranked defense against the run DVOA and the lack of ball possession that the Panthers offense is usually able to generate pretty much puts the opposing running back in a prime position to accumulate a ton of fantasy points. For the Panthers, once again, we gravitate to Adam Thielen, who continues to be Bryce Young’s security blanket in the slot, provides a very high floor and gets a matchup against the 28th-ranked pass defense DVOA.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is being drafted as the QB9 in the Battle Royale this week. The Rams have largely owned the Cardinals and Kyler Murray throughout the years, and whether it has been Jared Goff or Matthew Stafford, the Rams have been able to do a lot of damage over the air. I don’t expect that to change, even with Kyren Williams back for the Rams this week. The Cardinals have the 31st ranked defense DVOA and don’t have much of a pass rush. Their 3.3% QB hit rate is the lowest in the NFL by a big margin. If you can keep Stafford on his feet, he’s going to be able to get it to his weapons and I think that happens this week against the Cardinals.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson is being drafted as the RB17 in the Battle Royale this week. He continues to get a ton of work on a weekly basis and might get even more work this week against the 28th-ranked rush defense DVOA thanks to the Patriots’ QB situation. I’m also not exactly a believer in Tommy DeVito and just can’t see him maintaining much possession this week against a Patriots team coming off the bye.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton is being drafted as the WR27 in the Battle Royale this week. I don’t necessarily love Sutton’s matchup this week, and who would when he’s facing the best defense DVOA in the NFL, but for him to be the WR27 is quite harsh. He’s arguably Russell Wilson’s most trusted option in the red zone, considering he has touchdowns in each of the last five weeks of play.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints
Rashid Shaheed is being drafted as the WR32 in the Battle Royale this week. With Derek Carr likely to be out this week due to a concussion, I like Shaheed a ton with Jameis Winston under center. Shaheed is naturally going to get more attention with Michael Thomas out of the lineup, but while the Falcons have done a good job at containing the ground game, they’ve had a terrible time defending the pass. Chris Olave is rightfully going to be a popular choice, but I think Shaheed should get much more love than he’s getting right now.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cade Otton is being drafted as the TE7 in the Battle Royale this week. With the TE position quite thin this week without T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle and Sam LaPorta (among others), I think we still need to roster a TE with upside that can match Travis Kelce, Dalton Kincaid or Trey McBride. Otton might not be a name that you would gravitate to if that was your intended goal, but he’s gaining much more confidence from Baker Mayfield and is just a few games removed form a 9-target, 6-catch, 2-touchdown performance against the Texans.
