NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We have just a few more weeks until the start of the fantasy football playoffs in most leagues. These last few weeks of the season are going to be the most important of the year, so you better make it count. I’ll take a close look at each team’s usage statistics and highlight a key stat that has some significance.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 11
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Amari Cooper Sees Fewer Snaps Than Curtis Samuel
Amari Cooper hasn’t seen more than 51% of the snaps since putting on his Bills uniform. Injuries definitely haven’t helped Cooper get acclimated in Buffalo any quicker, but with Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel getting more and more trust from Josh Allen, and Keon Coleman likely back in the near future, it’s definitely an uneasy feeling if you have Cooper on your roster.
Miami Dolphins: Jonnu Smith Continues to Get a Lot of Love
Jonnu Smith had his best game of the season against the Raiders. He ended the day with 6 catches on 8 targets for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Smith’s 8 targets tied Tyreek Hill for the team lead. Smith’s production is putting him in a position where you might even have to consider finding room in your flex spot if you already have a viable tight end on the roster.
New England Patriots: Ja’Lynn Polk Once Looked Like the WR1, Now Locked as the WR4
For the third straight week, Ja’Lynn Polk saw the fourth-most snaps at the WR position for the Patriots. Regardless if t’s K.J. Osborn or Kendrick Bourne in the lineup, he is still not seeing as many snaps as the two veterans and is nowhere near the snap rates of both Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas. You can absolutely feel free to drop him if you haven’t already done so.
New York Jets: Xavier Gipson Sees Highest Snap Rate of the Season
Week 11 against the Colts saw Xavier Gipson take the third-most snaps among the Jets receivers — taking 53% of the snaps (27). Still, if your name isn’t Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams, you might as well just be out there running, cardio because you’re not going to be seeing too many balls thrown to you from Aaron Rodgers. Gibson ended the day with just 1 catch for 17 yards.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Every Ravens Loss Has Featured Too Little Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry has gotten 20 touches or more in four of the Ravens’ seven victories this season. He has yet to hit the 20-touch mark in any of the team’s four losses. Hopefully for Baltimore’s sake, they’ll realize that getting Henry the ball is a key to their success.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown a One-Man Show at RB
Even with Khalil Herbert on the roster, the Bengals are giving every opportunity to be the team’s bell cow at RB. He ended his day with 83% of snaps (68) and got a season-high 27 touches for 143 all-purpose yards. Cincinnati is seeing a ton of success offensively with Brown’s high volume out of the backfield, so even with three losses over their last four games, I wouldn’t worry about Brown’s usage moving forward.
Cleveland Browns: Don’t worry Too Much About Cedric Tillman
Cedric Tillman had his worst game with Jameis Winston under center, getting just 3 catches on 3 catchable targets for 47 yards. Still, I wouldn’t worry too much about Tillman considering he still led all of the receivers in snaps, seeing 96% of the snaps (70). Jameis has improved the offense significantly since he replaced Deshaun Watson in Week 8, and everyone on the field has played better with his presence.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Williams the WR3 from Here on Out
Mike Williams saw 32% of the snaps (25) in the Steelers’ win over the Ravens. He did not end the game with a catch, but his presence on the field makes a huge difference to the offense. In particular, it opens up the field a bit more for George Pickens who ended with a season-high 8 catches. His 25 snaps were also just 1 snap behind Calvin Austin III, who has been seeing WR3 usage, but is generally best used as a utility man.
AFC South
Houston Texans: John Metchie III Has the Second-Highest Snap Rate with Nico Collins Back
Nico Collins was eased back into the lineup against the Cowboys and saw just 47% of the snaps (30). Rather than Xavier Hutchinson continuing to see most of the targets, we actually saw John Metchie III continue to get significant time on the field. Metchie saw 61% of the snaps (39) and was able to catch 3 balls on 3 catchable targets for 33 yards. It seems once Collins is back to a full snap count, Metchie will be the most likely to take on Stefon Diggs’ old role.
Indianapolis Colts: Adonai Mitchell Outsnapped by Ashton Dulin with Michael Pittman Jr. Back
After coming off a career game in Week 10, Adonai Mitchell’s snap rate saw a huge decrease from 94% (60) to 17% (12). At this point, Mitchell can’t be rostered in shallow leagues unless Pittman is forced to miss more time due to injury. With Pittman seemingly healthy again, Mitchell’s fantasy value is relegated to virtually nothing.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Jags Are Bad, But Run Game Is Extra Bad
While it’s certainly going to be a little different once Trevor Lawrence returns to the lineup, it’s hard to like any of the Jaguars running backs right now, and that includes Tank Bigsby. Travis Etienne Jr. couldn’t do much of anything against Detroit’s run defense. In 15 touches, he only ended with 33 all-purpose yards. With the Jaguars more so on track to race to yet another No. 1 overall draft pick, it’s hard to want to want anything to do with anyone from their backfield.
Tennessee Titans: Will Levis Doesn’t Have a Preferred Target with DeAndre Hopkins Gone
Prior to Will Levis’ injury, it certainly seemed like he had a slight preference in targeting DeAndre Hopkins even with Nuk’s limited snap count. Over the last two weeks, Levis really hasn’t been favoring any particular target. Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine dominate in terms of snap rates, but based on these last two weeks, there’s only a slight preference for Levis to target Ridley. Still, getting 9 catchable targets over two weeks where you’re placed in a lot of must pass situations isn’t really anything to write home about.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Sure Enough, Audric Estime Not the RB1
All of the speculation that Audric Estime had found his way into the RB1 role with the Broncos was all for nothing. Estime only saw 23% of the snaps (14) and was a non-factor in a game where the Broncos thoroughly dominated the Falcons and were not tied down to must-pass situations.
Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Watson Still Getting a Ton of Snaps in a Crowded WR Room
With DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster both active for the first time, it brought down Hopkins’ snap rate down to just 47% (26). What’s hard to believe is that Justin Watson still saw 56% of the snaps (31) with both of them active. Considering the Chiefs were humbled for the first time this season, there should be plenty of optimism for those who’ve rostered either Hopkins or JuJu that some of those Watson snaps will go to the more talented receivers sooner rather than later.
Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers Might Be TE1 Heading into 2025
Brock Bowers has been seeing record levels of usage in his first season in the big leagues. This past week against the he brought home 13 receptions on 16 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. Bowers basically doubled up all of the other Raiders receivers combined. Bowers’ usage might not be sustainable when it’s at 10-plus catches and 15-plus targets, but the volume should still be consistently there to the point where he’ll continue his tear as a top-three TE.
Los Angeles Chargers: Quentin Johnston Remains Justin Herbert’s Top Red Zone Target
It has really been the Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey show whenever the Chargers are in the red zone. In two fewer games, Johnston has as many end zone targets as Ladd McConkey (5) and has a team-leading four end-zone touchdowns this season. There were plenty of doubts regarding Johnston’s connection with Herbert heading into a critical season without their veteran receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but Johnston has been able to come through more often than not.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Deuce Vaughn a Thing Again at RB
Deuce Vaughn saw his first touches again since Week 4, and it couldn’t be more frustrating to have Rico Dowdle on your roster. At this point, there’s no real reason why Dowdle shouldn’t be seeing 75-80% of the snaps at the RB position, but Vaughn and Ezekiel Elliott are still taking away some of his snaps and touches. Vaughn saw a ton of critical playing time in the third quarter — seeing 19% of the snaps (16) and getting 5 touches for 17 all-purpose yards. If you are lucky enough to have Dowdle on your roster, it’s imperative for you to find some type of alternative if you’ve been rolling him as your RB2 or flex.
New York Giants: Bye Week
Philadelphia Eagles: Even in Revenge Game, Jahan Dotson Sees Very Little Usage
If there was any game for Jahan Dotson to breakthrough, it should have been his first revenge game against the Commanders. Unfortunately, his usage was still quite minimal. He saw just 41 of the snaps (29) and caught just 1 pass for 8 yards. If you’re one of the few people who still have him on your roster, you might be better off dropping him and picking up any other WR3 or WR4 in the league.
Washington Commanders: Austin Ekeler the Better PPR Back; Brian Robinson Jr. the Better Non-PPR RB
In Brian Robinson Jr.’s return to the lineup after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury, Robinson and Austin Ekeler had nearly identical snap rates (53% to 52%); however, Robinson out-touched Ekeler 17-10. Ekeler was still able to produce thanks to his big role in the passing game, catching 8 balls on 9 targets for 89 yards. Ekeler has seen as many, or more targets than Robinson in every game they’ve been active together this season. Ultimately, when it comes down to it, Ekeler is going to be the elite PPR back while Robinson is going to be king in non-PPR.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Roschon Johnson Might Be Worth Adding
It’s always interesting to see what happens the first game after a play caller gets fired. The most notable thing that happened in the Bears first game with Thomas Brown calling plays is that Roschon Johnson saw his highest snap rate of the season. Johnson saw 42% of the snaps (30) and got 11 touches in those 30 snaps for 41 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. On top of that, he out-touched D’Andre Swift in the red zone (4-1) as well as the goal line (2-1). Johnson is only rostered in 8% of Yahoo leagues and should be strongly considered to anyone who is thin at the RB position.
Detroit Lions: Hard to Feel Comfortable Playing Any Lions TE
Jameson Williams’ emergence this season has really taken a hit on Sam LaPorta’s overall production. But even with LaPorta out and Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell seeing a lot of action in 12-personnel, Jared Goff only targeted his tight ends two times the entire game. If LaPorta continues to miss time, you may be tempted to stream Wright, but given the lack of focus on the tight end as a pass catcher in Ben Johnson’s game plan this season, I’d probably stay away.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson Has a Big Game, But It Probably Isn’t Sustainable
Christian Watson ended his Sunday with 4 receptions for a season-high 150 receiving yards in Green Bay’s huge victory over the Bears. The problem with Watson is that he’s rarely ever going to see high volume. He caught all 4 of his targets last week, but the biggest issue with Watson is that he has yet to see more than 4 catchable targets in any single week this season. Jordan Love has spread the ball to nearly all of his receivers, so while Watson definitely offers a ton of upside, his floor is about as low as it can get for someone who was likely drafted as a WR2 or WR3.
Minnesota Vikings: Cam Akers Has Clearly Taken Over the RB2 Role
Cam Akers has seen his snap count rate increase every game since rejoining the Vikings. Akers saw 37% of the snaps (27) with one of those snaps leading to a touchdown catch in the Vikings win over the Titans. Given Aaron Jones’ injury history, it appears that the Vikings are trying to take it easy on their star running back as the team tries to lock in their playoff berth. Akers has a long history with head coach Kevin O’Connell dating back to KOC’s time with the Rams. KOC appears to have full trust in Akers, and it has completely taken Ty Chandler out of the rotation.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts Might Be the World’s Most Frustrating Fantasy Player
I guess it doesn’t matter if it’s Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke or Kirk Cousins as the Falcons’ QB1. Kyle Pitts will forever be a boom or bust (and mostly bust) fantasy option. Pitts inexplicably ended his Week 11 with just 1 catch on 1 catchable target for 9 yards. If you have Pitts on the roster, there’s probably not much you can do about it other than trying to find the next Cade Otton or Taysom Hill, but what you can do is take note of this frustration for next year’s redraft leagues.
Carolina Panthers: Bye Week
New Orleans Saints: Taysom Hill Suddenly an Elite ‘Tight End’
I think enough has been said about Taysom Hill’s career game against the Browns, but what I feel is more notable is that Hill saw 10 targets as a receiver, which is more than double the targets that anyone else saw throughout the game. The Saints are winning games with the volume that Hill is getting right now, so I don’t think it’s too crazy to think that this type of volume is sustainable moving forward. Hill is available in 54% of Yahoo leagues right now, and with the Saints headed into a bye week, there is a slight chance he might still be available in your league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bye Week
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Bye Week
Los Angeles Rams: Demarcus Robinson Not Getting Much Attention from Matthew Stafford
After back-to-back multi-TD games in Weeks 8 and 9, it’s a bit surprising to see that Demarcus Robinson isn’t really getting targeted by Stafford. Last week against the Patriots, he only saw 4 targets and caught the only 2 catchable targets for 19 yards. Stafford has been determined to get Puka Nacua and, to a lesser extent, Cooper Kupp the ball as much as possible since they both returned to the lineup in Week 8. Robinson probably still deserves a roster spot, but you may want to consider alternatives if you have them available.
San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings Might Be Brock Purdy’s Favorite Target
Jauan Jennings has been active for a total of eight games this season and seven games where Deebo Samuel Sr. has also been active. Jennings seen as many as or more targets than Samuel in each of their last five games. With Christian McCaffrey sure to get more touches in the coming weeks and George Kittle primed to return to the lineup, it might be wise to consider an alternative play if you are currently playing Deebo every single week.
Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Still Leads in Targets with DK Metcalf Back
When DK Metcalf missed two weeks due to a knee injury, Jaxon Smith-Njigba dominated the target share, leading in targets in each of those two weeks. With Metcalf back in against the 49ers, Smith-Njigba still led the team with 11 targets (10 catchable), which edged out Metcalf’s 9 targets (7 catchable). Still, there’s nothing to really worry about when it comes to Metcalf. The remaining Seahawks receivers only saw a combined 10 catchable targets.
