The Read Option, Week 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts game for Week 12.

Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts

IND -2.5, O/U 43.5
Pace: TB: 26.6 sec/snap (12th), IND: 23.4 sec/snap (1st)

FTN Data Breakdown

• Jonathan Taylor set season-highs in snap share (89%) and rush share (88%) in Week 10.
• Rachaad White is second among all running backs in targets since Week 7 (27).
• His 77.4% snap share on the season is fourth highest at the position.
• Michael Pittman is averaging 10.3 targets per game alongside Gardner Minshew this season.
• Mike Evans has accounted for 40.7% of Tampa Bay’s air yards this year.

Quarterback

After four consecutive top-13 finishes, Baker Mayfield fell back down to QB22 last week against the 49ers. Mayfield has been a solid QB2 for most of the season and remains such against the Colts this weekend. This is a much better spot for Mayfield, who has been much better throwing the football against zone coverage than man. Against man coverage this year, Mayfield is completing just 53.8% of his passes with about 5.0 adjusted net yards per attempt. But against zone coverage, he is completing 70.3% of his passes, which is notable considering the Colts are deploying zone coverage 73% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Mayfield has also been effective against Cover-3, which is a staple of this Gus Bradley-led defense. 

Running Back

A pass interference penalty helped Rachaad White score a one-yard touchdown last week, giving him four touchdowns over the last three weeks. White continues to see a strong workload, averaging a solid 18.2 touches per game on the year. He has also been on the field for 77.4% of the snaps, the fourth-highest rate among all running backs. His usage in the passing game has been rock solid as of late, as White is second at the position in targets since Week 7 (27), trailing only Alvin Kamara. He could be busy in the pass game again on Sunday, as this Colts’ defensive philosophy is predicated on limiting explosive plays and keeping everything in front of them. As a result, opposing running backs are averaging 6.3 targets per game against Indianapolis, the 12th most in football. White is a must-start running back.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans found the end zone again last week, giving him a touchdown in four of his last five outings. Evans remains the WR1 in Tampa Bay, sporting a 24% target share and accounting for 40.7% of the team’s air yards, one of the highest rates in the league. This is an interesting spot for Evans, as the Colts limit explosive pass plays, but have also struggled to defend opposing top wide receivers for much of the year. Opposing number-one wideouts are averaging a solid 78.5 yards per game against the Colts and while they have been better since Week 7, they have also faced Cleveland (with P.J. Walker), Carolina and New England in three of four games during that stretch. And even in Week 10, Demario Douglas caught six passes for 84 yards, finishing as the WR23. On the season, eight different receivers have finished as top-28 fantasy options against them. And six have finished inside the top-20. They have also allowed four 100-yard games this season. Evans’ target share is down about 13% against zone coverage this year but he’s still a top-12 wideout in this spot.

Meanwhile, Chris Godwin continues to be more of a floor play this season. He has at least six targets in every game this season, but has only eclipsed 77 receiving yards once, while scoring just one touchdown. Godwin is currently on pace to finish with less than 1,000 receiving yards and is a high-end WR3 most weeks. 

Tight End

Finally, Cade Otton is a viable streaming tight end this week. He continues to play a ton, logging over 96% of the snaps and running a route on 86% of dropbacks, one of the highest rates in the league. The Colts have been about a league average matchup for opposing tight ends this season.

Quarterback

If you are looking to replace Joe Burrow, your best bet would be to look at Gardner Minshew. He’s definitely been pretty boom/bust as a fantasy signal caller, but this matchup is as good as it gets. After coughing up over 300 yards and three touchdowns to Brock Purdy last week, Tampa Bay has now allowed a top-two fantasy quarterback in three of their last four games. This pass defense is reeling right now, as the Bucs rank 32nd in EPA per dropback and 30th in dropback success rate on defense since Week 7. On the season, Tampa Bay is now allowing the second-most yards per pass attempt (8.0). Against the blitz this year, Minshew is completing just over 60% of his passes with four touchdowns. Tampa Bay, of course, blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league (38.3%). Minshew is the top streaming candidate of the week, while he makes for an elite value play in DFS contests.

Running Back

Before Indianapolis’ bye in Week 10, Jonathan Taylor finally took over the backfield. In that game against the Patriots, Taylor set season-highs in both snap share (89%) and rush share (88%), while Zack Moss has played just 17% of the snaps with 14% of the rush attempts over the past two games. Given this shift in usage, Taylor can now comfortably be trusted as a weekly top-10 fantasy running back, regardless of matchup. Tampa Bay, especially with Vita Vea healthy, is a strong run defense, but Taylor’s volume and talent are elite. 

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman continues to post strong production with Minshew under center. In fact, he is averaging 10.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, 73.6 receiving yards and 16.6 PPR points per game in contests alongside Minshew this season. Pittman has seen double-digit targets in 6-of-10 games over the course of the season and gets a great matchup on Sunday. Tampa Bay is allowing a healthy 80.3 receiving yards per game to opposing top wideouts (ninth most) and were just destroyed by Brandon Aiyuk to the tune of 5-156-1 last week. Pittman also has a massive 33.9% target share against the blitz this season, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, while the Bucs blitz at the second-highest rate in football. Opposing WR1s have absolutely destroyed Tampa Bay as of late, too, making this a smash spot for Pittman, especially with Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis banged up.

When we last saw Josh Downs in Week 10, he was working through an injury that limited him to just 43% of the routes and 25% of the snaps. Hopefully he can return to a full-time role this weekend and as long as he does, the rookie is a high-end WR3 with a pretty strong floor. Downs has a strong 22% target share against the blitz this season.

WRs vs. Tampa Bay since Week 6

Tight End

The Colts continue to deploy a committee at the tight end position. Feel free to look elsewhere, per usual.