The Most Successful First-Round Teams in the NFL Draft the Last 10 Years

We’re a few weeks away from the 2025 NFL Draft, where the fortunes of 32 teams and a few hundred players will start to take shape. In theory, this is kind of a blank slate — nothing you’ve done before matters when it comes to picking a player, and all that matters is how well you can select a guy and what you do with him afterward.

In reality, though … some teams suck at this.

That’s a little harsh, but it’s true that out of 32 teams, someone has to be the worst at picking players over the long run, and someone has to be the best. So yesterday and today, I’ll be looking at the teams with the most (and least) first-round success in the last decade.

Obviously there’s more than a little subjectivity here, and there are some considerations beyond just player performance to consider. A team that regularly picks in the top 10 has a higher threshold to meet for success than a team regularly picking in the late 20s, for example.

If you want to learn everything there is to know about this year’s rookie class, check out FTN’s 2025 Rookie Fantasy Scouting Guide.

A couple of notes: First, this is just about the players selected. I’m not evaluating trade-ups/trade-downs, how much a team gave up to make a pick. This is just “You selected a player, how’d he do?” Second, this is only how players perform(ed) in their original tenure with the team that drafted them. Sam Darnold made the Pro Bowl and got MVP votes last year with the Vikings; the Jets get absolutely no credit for that. Third, there is not much in the way of objective criteria here, just because it’s extremely hard to compare a tackle drafted eighth to a wide receiver drafted 27^th to a quarterback drafted second. But if you look at all the first-round picks as a group, successes and failures definitely start to come into focus.

It’s a countdown — the 16 most successful teams of the last decade today. Thursday, I looked at the 16 doing the worst.

For each team, I’ll list their average first-round pick (so a hypothetical team that picked first in every draft would average 1.0) just to show the quality of a team’s average pick. I’ll also list the percentage of possible games a team could have gotten (so if you drafted a guy in 2015 and got 10 years of him playing every game, 164 out of 164, that’s 100%).

The Most Successful Teams in the First Round of the Draft, 2015-2024

16. Washington Commanders

Average pick: 13.9 (No. 26)
Percentage of games: 57.1% (No. 15)

The Commanders’ recent first-round history has very little middle ground. Brandon Scherff, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and (obviously) Jayden Daniels have been definite success stories, while Josh Doctson, Dwayne Haskins, Jahan Dotson and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. are as far in the opposite direction. A win probably counts more than a loss in this exercise — you’d take three Forbes picks for every one Daniels pick — but you’d definitely like more of a pattern of success.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

Average pick: 21.4 (No. 6)
Percentage of games: 63.1% (No. 8)

How much credit does nabbing T.J. Watt at 30^th overall in 2017 get you? Because that is just about the home run-est of home runs possible, and it needs to be — the rest of the Steelers’ last decade is less exciting. There’s no shame in guys like Bud Dupree, Terrell Edmunds or Najee Harris, but those shouldn’t be the highlights. And then there’s the blow-up selection of Kenny Pickett, who was supposed to be the heir apparent to Ben Roethlisberger and instead is now less than three years removed from being drafted and is on his third NFL team.

14. Houston Texans

Average pick: 11.9 (No. 29)
Percentage of games: 48.2% (No. 26)

Exactly what to do with the Deshaun Watson pick was one of the hardest parts of this exercise. On the one hand, he played four years in Houston, threw 104 touchdowns in 54 games and took them to two division titles and the Divisional Round once. On the other, he only played four years in Houston, and of course we know the extenuating circumstances. If the Texans get strong credit for Watson, then they got two successful quarterbacks (along with C.J. Stroud) in a decade, and supplemented that by nailing picks like first-team All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr. and 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. If they don’t get much Watson credit, then their haul from 2015 through 2021 (Kevin Johnson, William Fuller V, Watson and Tytus Howard) is so very underwhelming.

13. Philadelphia Eagles

Average pick: 16.3 (No. 12)
Percentage of games: 57.0% (No. 16)

If I do this exercise again in five years, the Eagles might rise a lot. Because their recent “Hey, let’s get all the Georgia defenders” strategy has led to a lot more success. Since 2021, their first-round haul of DeVonta Smith, Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr. and Quinyon Mitchell went a long way toward their Super Bowl title a few months ago. But before that, things were worse. Nelson Agholor didn’t even become anything great. Carson Wentz showed flashes, but after his first contract he immediately became a journeyman. Andre Dillard never did much in Philly, and of course Jalen Reagor will always be known as “the guy who went right before Justin Jefferson and played the same position.” But man, the last few years have been good.

12. Green Bay Packers

Average pick: 22.8 (No. 3)
Percentage of games: 68.3% (No. 3)

Despite picking on average in the back 10-11 of the first round, the Packers have gotten plenty of playing time from their picks (only Damarious Randall — 39 games in three years in Green Bay before being dumped to Cleveland — has played under a quarter of the possible games for the team). In other words, there haven’t been out-and-out disaster picks. But there also haven’t been over-the-moon home runs, either. The Packers have only gotten six Pro Bowls from their first-rounders in the last decade (three from Kenny Clark, two from Jaire Alexander, one from Rashan Gary), with no one ever making it in back-to-back years. It’s a history of getting fine playing time, solid starters, but no difference-makers.

11. New Orleans Saints

Average pick: 19.8 (No. 9)
Percentage of games: 61.1% (No. 10)

The Saints might have had the best single draft class in recent memory in 2017. It was headlined by Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk in the first round, but they also got Marcus Williams, Alvin Kamara, Alex Anzalone and Trey Hendrickson in later rounds. Just an epic performance. The problem? The rest of the last decade has not followed that performance. Stephone Anthony bounced out of the league pretty quickly, and Trevor Penning certainly hasn’t proved to be worth his draft. Chris Olave has been very good, but still more WR2 level than WR1. There haven’t been many egregious busts, but 2017 aside, the hits haven’t been huge either.

10. Minnesota Vikings

Average pick: 21.8 (No. 5)
Percentage of games: 49.6% (No. 22)

The Vikings have plenty of hits in our sample. Justin Jefferson is the most obvious, of course, but Garrett Bradbury, Christian Darrisaw and Jordan Addison are nothing to sneeze at. The problems? They get no credit at all (so far) for the J.J. McCarthy pick, Laquon Treadwell and Lewis Cine were failed picks, and the sad Jeff Gladney story was a disaster of a pick. The good outweighs the bad, but there are still plenty of drawbacks.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Average pick: 15.3 (No. 18)
Percentage of games: 60.7% (No. 11)

The Buccaneers haven’t gone heavy on fantasy-relevant names in the last decade, and the ones they did get (Jameis Winston and O.J. Howard) were bloop singles as opposed to home runs. But Tampa’s work elsewhere has been more than fine — Vita Vea and Tristan Wirfs have worked out fantastically, while guys like Devin White and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka are solid. There hasn’t been an out-and-out bust in this group.

8. Baltimore Ravens

Average pick: 23.6 (No. 2)
Percentage of games: 65.2% (No. 6)

Only the Chiefs have averaged a worst first-round pick than the Ravens over the last decade, and despite that, Baltimore has come away with one of the best quarterbacks in the league (Lamar Jackson), a tackle who has played for the team for a generation (Ronnie Stanley) and 2-3 elite defensive players (Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Hamilton, Patrick Queen if you’re feeling generous). So why are they only ninth? Because they stink at drafting pass-catchers. Breshad Perriman, Hayden Hurst, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers? That’s “eh, fine” at absolute best, probably worse than that. Add in that the team took Hurst ahead of Jackson in 2018 (so did they know what Jackson would be or did they get lucky?) and they get dinged a bit.

7. Cleveland Browns

Average pick: 14.2 (No. 23)
Percentage of games: 51.8% (No. 24)

It’s kind of remarkable how many hits the Browns have had in the last decade, given their general mediocrity as, you know, a football team. In 2017-2018, the Browns had five combined first-round picks, and coming out of that with Myles Garrett–Jabrill Peppers–David Njoku–Baker Mayfield–Denzel Ward is all a team could realistically ask for out of that haul, and they capped off their decade with Jedrick Wills Jr. and Greg Newsome II in 2020-2021 (with their subsequent first-rounders going to Houston in that disastrous Deshaun Watson deal). Starting the decade with Danny Shelton, Cameron Erving and Corey Coleman in 2015-2016 is obviously a big strike against the Browns, but 2017-2018 is holding the team up.

6. Dallas Cowboys

Average pick: 20.7 (No. 7)
Percentage of games: 63.9% (No. 7)

CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are the home runs in Dallas, but there haven’t been many out-and-out misses — maybe Mazi Smith, and the jury’s out on Tyler Guyton. Before that, it was a bunch of good picks. Not over the moon, not busts, just … guys you like. Even Ezekiel Elliott, who was great for a long while, has the downside of going fourth overall, right ahead of Jalen Ramsey–Ronnie Stanley–DeForest Buckner. The Cowboys have famously struggled to land big names in free agency in recent years, but the draft has salvaged things so far.

5. Atlanta Falcons

Average pick: 15.1 (No. 19)
Percentage of games: 62.5% (No. 9)

The Falcons are the Drafters of Great Potential. Calvin Ridley was the heir apparent to Julio Jones, until he wasn’t. Kyle Pitts was the heir apparent to all great tight ends, until he wasn’t. Bijan Robinson was the next big thing at running back, until he … well, he still might be. Drake London had a third-year breakout in 2024, but it remains to be seen if he can reach the upper echelon. The only Falcons first-rounders in the last decade who haven’t made a Pro Bowl or a second-team (or better) All Pro were Takk McKinley, Kaleb McGary, Michael Penix Jr. and London, but Chris Lindstrom is the only one to make such a team more than once. No real failures, but not much in the way of overwhelming successes, either.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

Average pick: 24.3 (No. 1)
Percentage of games: 65.3% (No. 5)

Obviously, nabbing Patrick Mahomes overcomes a lot of other issues. But before 2022, the Chiefs only had three first-round picks in the last decade, and one of them was Marcus Peters in 2015, so that was fine (if limited — he only played three years as a Chief). So the success of Mahomes only had to beat out the struggles of 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and I’m perfectly happy to say Mahomes did that in spades. Kansas City has made four first-round picks the last three years, with Trent McDuffie a clear hit, Xavier Worthy maybe one, and George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah have been just fine.

3. Los Angeles Chargers

Average pick: 14.1 (No. 24)
Percentage of games: 68.5% (No. 2)

Quentin Johnston is the only real failure here, and there are plenty of teams who would take “32 games, 1,142 yards and 10 touchdowns” as their bust of busts. And the hits have been plentiful, from moderate successes like Melvin Gordon III and Mike Williams to big wins like Justin Herbert, Joey Bosa, Derwin James Jr. and (with time to really flesh out) O-linemen Rashawn Slater, Zion Johnson and Joe Alt. That’s a lot of success stories.

2. Los Angeles Rams

Average pick: 10.0 (No. 31)
Percentage of games: 48.3% (No. 25)

Whatever, man, the Rams have only taken three players in the first round in 10 years. But with those three players, they got a three-time Pro Bowl running back who scored 40 touchdowns over two seasons in 2017-2018 (Todd Gurley), a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback who took them to a Super Bowl (Jared Goff, who also landed them Matthew Stafford, although that doesn’t count here) and the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year (Jared Verse). It’s a tiny sample, but there is nothing even remotely resembling a miss.

1. Detroit Lions

Average pick: 14.3 (No. 22)
Percentage of games: 60.3% (No. 13)

The early part of the decade wasn’t bad. They got two of their current starting O-linemen in 2016 (Taylor Decker) and 2018 (Frank Ragnow), plus an upper-tier tight end in 2019 (T.J. Hockenson). That alone would have the Lions flirting with the top 10. But after whiffing on Jeff Okudah in 2020, the Lions took off in the 2020s. Penei Sewell, Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jack Campbell in 2021-2023 is about the best three-year run a team could realistically go on, and last year’s rookie, Terrion Arnold, has shown enough to potentially continue that run. The Lions have done just about everything right the last few years, and it starts with the draft.