The Fantasy Football One-Hit Wonders of 2023

Today is wet blanket day. There are plenty of players who, this time a year ago, were afterthoughts or worse in fantasy football, but who are now big names based on their 2023 performance. Some of them were breakouts, guys who are now set up to be long-term contributors.

But some aren’t.

There are one-year wonders every year, guys who had a career year, command an elevated price on draft day the following year, and never come close to repeating their big season. This piece a year ago named Jamaal Williams, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, Geno Smith, Taysom Hill and Jerick McKinnon as the “one-hit wonders” of 2022, and all of those but Engram and arguably Hill disappointed to some extend in 2023. Williams went from 17 touchdowns in 2022 to a lone score in 2023, and that one came in a manufactured situation in Week 18 that did nothing for anybody in fantasy. McKinnon, Kirk and Jones got hurt. Smith was ho-hum. It’s not always the same path to disappointment, but either way, one year’s big-time breakouts are the next year’s landmines.

So who are the one-hit wonders for 2024?

Fantasy Football One-Hit Wonders for 2024

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

2023 finish: RB5
Previous career best: RB25 (2022)

This one is probably fairly obvious — not many people are going to invest in any 32-year-old running back (the age Raheem Mostert turns in April), let alone who scored more touchdowns in 2023 (21) than in his previous eight years combined (19). But there will probably be some buzz about Mostert at least as a function of the Miami offense, and that’s worth pumping the brakes on as well — the Dolphins are in a real cap crunch this offseason, and while Mostert doesn’t carry a big price tag, the presence of De’Von Achane and the relative belief that the scheme can turn any fast guy into a producer might leave Mostert unemployed. If he’s a Dolphin, he’s worth a mid-round flyer on the off chance he stays blazing fast and productive at 32. If he’s not a Dolphin? He might go undrafted.

Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders

2023 finish: QB12
Previous career best: QB58 (2022)

Picking Sam Howell as a fantasy contributor was one of my bold calls of the 2023 season, and it didn’t have much to do with his skill as a football player. Sure, that mattered, but it was more a factor of his having a clear job in a productive-enough offense (with a bad defense) and no real reason for his team to go away from him. That all came to fruition, and how — I said Howell would be a top-20 finisher, and he blew that away with a QB12 finish. But it also went poorly for the Commanders, with Washington going 4-13 and earning the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, a pick that will certainly go to a quarterback. Howell might be the backup in Washington in 2024, or he might be a backup elsewhere, but either way, he’s unlikely to ever be a full-time starter again.

Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers

2023 finish: RB27
Previous career best: RB36 (2021)

Chuba Hubbard hasn’t been anything special in the NFL, with 3.9 career yards per carry and not much breakaway ability to speak of. The Panthers appear to agree — he’s gotten significant work in two of his seasons (2021 and 2023), and both were because the running back who was supposed to play ahead of him couldn’t, with Christian McCaffrey getting hurt in 2021 and Miles Sanders falling flat on his face in 2023. The Panthers are likely to overhaul the offense this offseason, and while the receiver room needs more attention (arguably the most attention of any receiving unit in the league), it would be a big surprise to see Hubbard enter 2024 as the starter or in anything like a significant role. 

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2023 finish: QB10
Previous career best: QB16 (2018)

Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback. Maybe it took some fits and starts to get there, and maybe he’ll never return “first overall draft pick”-type value, but it’s clear that he’s at least a lower-end NFL starter, if not better than that. But it was also a perfect storm for him in 2023, with two elite receivers (Chris Godwin and especially Mike Evans), a No. 1 running back who was a good pass-catcher but no great shakes as a runner (Rachaad White) and a pass-funnel defense that kept him in pass-friendly gamescripts. On top of that, Baker’s rushing-yard total (163) was the fourth lowest among the top 14 fantasy quarterbacks and still almost his career high. With he and Evans both heading into free agency, Dave Canales in Carolina and the likelihood Baker doesn’t even rush that much in 2024, expect more of a mid-range QB2 than a low-end QB1.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

2023 finish: WR4
Previous career best: N/A

This one hurts, because Puka Nacua was my little tentpole last offseason. I drafted him in almost every league and tweeted about him enough to be annoying about it. But while I have little doubt Puka shapes up to be a long-term contributor at the NFL level, asking for more WR4 seasons is a bit much. For starters, 2023 was the first time in the 17-game era that 298.5 points would have been WR4 (it would have been WR7 and WR6 before). For another, everything that could possibly have broken right for him to thrive in 2023 did, from Cooper Kupp’s injury to the Rams having a more-than-questionable defense to Kyren Williams missing a chunk of the middle of the season. And then there’s the biggest factor — for all the love the Rams gave Puka on most of the field, they just plain didn’t trust him down close. Per the FTN Fantasy red zone stats, Nacua only had 2 targets inside the 5. That was fewer than Kupp and Williams, sure. It was also fewer than Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell. Unless we have some confidence that can change in a dramatic way, Puka’s upside is going to be capped, because his touchdown ability is going to have a ceiling. 

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns

2023 finish: RB16
Previous career best: RB154 (2022)

I bet if you polled a thousand fantasy football managers about where Jerome Ford finished in PPR in 2023, the popular answer would somewhere in the mid-20s among running backs, not comfortably in the RB2s and looking optimistically toward the RB1s. Part of that is how he accumulated his scoring—he had four top-10 weeks, and they came:

• In emergency work after Nick Chubb’s Week 2 injury
• With only 18 rushing yards (but two touchdowns) in Week 3
• Only 76 scrimmage yards in a bye-pocalypse week of Week 7
• In Week 17, when only a handful of fantasy managers were still paying attention

He had more weeks outside the top 30 (five) than he had in the top 10. On top of that, he ceded touches to a back in Kareem Hunt who was unemployed to start the season because teams apparently thought he was done. Heading into 2024, either Chubb will be healthy (so Ford will be relegated to a backup role) or the Browns will bring in someone else to start or share touches. Either way, Ford isn’t likely to be a fantasy starter again.

David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns

2023 finish: TE6
Previous career best: TE9 (2018)

I guess I’m the guy pouring cold water on the Browns now. But after David Njoku closed the 2023 season with a huge flurry (he was the TE1 by almost 15 points in Weeks 14-17, then put up a 7-93 line on 11 targets in their Wild Card loss), there are two ways his 2024 season can go:

• The Browns and Deshaun Watson saw what he could do with Joe Flacco using him heavily and give him more work than he saw during Watson’s time as starter;
• Watson sticks with what he does and focuses more on the receivers.

If the latter happens, Njoku will slide down to low-end TE1/mid-range TE2 territory. If the former happens, sure, maybe I’m wrong, but given we have a history of Watson not doing much with his tight ends (no Houston TE ever topped 110.1 PPR points with Watson there), and the fact that the Texans are likely to get a supplement to Amari Cooper in 2024, I’ll take my chances on Njoku coming up short of TE6 again.