Fantasy Football 2023: Bold Predictions for Every Tier

Imagine three different fantasy football things all called “bold predictions.” They’re previewing the 2023 NFL season and promise bold predictions, but what does that mean?

• The first says “Lamar Jackson finishes as the QB1.” Sure, that’s kind of bold, it counts. If Jackson finishes as the QB1, that person gets the credit, but if he’s, say, QB3, no dice.
• The second says “Deshaun Watson finishes as the QB1.” OK, that’s bolder, I’m intrigued, but I can imagine how that would come to pass. If Watson is the QB1, good call, but if he’s the QB3, maybe it’s not full credit, but you can at least see that the person was close.
• The third says “Jordan Love finishes as the QB1.” Whoa! That’s the boldest one! If Love does finish as the QB1, that writer is legendary. But if Love finishes as, say, QB6? You’re still giving that person pretty strong credit. Maybe they didn’t nail the rank, but they pointed in the right direction.

I don’t think Jordan Love finishes as the QB1 in 2023. But that separation is how I do my bold predictions. Each year, I do three predictions at each position: A bold prediction, which I think will happen; a bolder prediction, which I think will probably happen or close; and a boldest prediction, which, yeah, maybe the actual degree is a bit overstated, but the point is to send you in a direction more than it is to get something exactly correct.

Now, on to my bold predictions.

Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football in 2023

Quarterback

Bold: Sam Howell Is a Top-20 Quarterback

Barring injury, the Commanders have no good reason to ever start Jacoby Brissett in 2023. This team needs to just throw Sam Howell out there and see what happens. If he’s good, cool, that’s a problem solved. If he’s bad, fine, now you know and can draft accordingly. And if he is bad, he still needs to play, to make the team’s pick better — an 8-9 season under Jacoby Brissett is the worst possible outcome.

In the last five years, 69 quarterbacks have started at least 16 games in a season. Only one of those — 2021 Trevor Lawrence-with-Urban Meyer — put up under 212.2 fantasy points (199.0). Last year, 212.2 would have been QB19. We don’t know if Howell will be good, but the Commanders need to find out, and given his legs (35 rushing yards and a score in his only game last year; over 1,000 yards and 17 TDs on the ground in college), his fantasy floor should keep him as a starter in superflex leagues and a perfectly fine fill-in in single-QB.

Bolder: Dak Prescott Has a Career-High Fantasy Point Total

Dak Prescott started his career with four straight QB1 finishes, going QB6-QB10-QB10-QB2 in 2016-2019. Injuries in 2020 and 2022 killed the streak, but he was QB7 in 2021 in between. But the memories of his recent less-spectacular performances might make this prediction seem less bold than it is — Prescott was the QB2 with 337.8 points in 2019, so beating that would likely have him no worse than QB5 in 2023.

How does he get there? By Mike McCarthy lying to us. Everything the Cowboys have said this offseason, starting with parting ways with OC Kellen Moore, have hyped up the team’s plans to go more run-heavy. But every single thing they have done this offseason — from dumping Ezekiel Elliott; to not signing a competent No. 2 for recovering-from-a-major-injury Tony Pollard; to trading for Brandin Cooks; to signing new strategic football analysts, including one from literally the Tampa Bay Rays (a move that screams “what do the nerds say?”, and the nerds say “pass”) — tells me “run-heavy” is a fib. They’re going to pass, they’re going to pass a lot, and Prescott’s fantasy managers will reap the benefits.

Boldest: Neither Joe Burrow Nor Trevor Lawrence Is a Top-6 QB

Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are, in some order, the top three fantasy quarterbacks. If you’re in on Lamar Jackson (I am), he’s right up there. Justin Herbert is a year removed from a QB2 finish and now has (a) better health, (b) a better line, (c) a better offensive coordinator and (d) a competent third receiver. Justin Fields was QB6 almost entirely on his legs and could improve this year if he improves as a passer.

And then there’s Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Burrow is excellent, but he needed every bit of his 257 yards and 5 scores on the ground last year to reach QB4, and he’s already starting the year with a leg injury, so I’m concerned he doesn’t run enough to crack the upper echelon. And then every last thing that could have gone right for Lawrence last year did. Travis Etienne was a miserable goal-line back (three scores on 13 inside-the-5 carries), leading to more passing and 5 rushing touchdowns for Lawrence. The Jags were remarkably healthy (Lawrence, Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram played 84 of a possible 85 games), and betting on health repeating is a long shot.

In short, I’m fine with Burrow and Lawrence as top-10 QBs. But I’m nervous about them in the top six.

Running Back

Bold: Bijan Robinson Is the RB1

Maybe not the boldest call, but worth noting. Christian McCaffrey is going to have to contend with Elijah Mitchell and the rest of the 49ers offense. Austin Ekeler is likely to see his target numbers drop with the arrival of Kellen Moore. This is a run-first offense with an excellent offensive line and a huge question mark at quarterback with a head coach who loves running backs and just spent the eighth overall pick on the best running back prospect in a generation. What’s surprising isn’t Bijan Robinson finishing as the RB1; it’s that he isn’t already the favorite.

Bolder: Roschon Johnson Is the Top-Scoring Bears RB

As a pass-blocker, Khalil Herbert was middling-at-best last year. And that’s wild success compared to D’Onta Foreman, who might have been the worst pass-blocking RB in the league. Roschon Johnson’s blocking is one of the first lines in any scouting report. Other lines on those reports? “Powerful,” “tough, smart and dependable,” “rarely fumbles.” So he was behind Bijan Robinson at Texas. There’s no shame in not being as good as the best.

Herbert and/or Foreman will probably open the season as the Bears starter (or in a 1-2 committee). But Johnson’s rushing ability is similar enough to theirs, and his blocking is so significantly superior, that it’s only a matter of time before the fourth-round rookie takes over and leads this backfield in fantasy production.

Boldest: Cam Akers Is Not a Top-50 RB

The Rams’ 2023 season needs to be about two things: Making the most of what time they have left with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, and figuring out which players on the roster might still be around when they are good again. Neither of those involves giving heavy work to a 24-year-old impending free agent running back who hasn’t shown much in the way of fantasy-friendly skills in the NFL. 

Akers has exactly three carries of 20-plus yards in 260 carries since his Achilles tear. He has 35 career targets in 29 games. He is running behind the league’s worst offensive line (so not many yards before contact) and opposite maybe the league’s worst defense (so very little in the way of gamescript-friendly scenarios). What’s the argument for drafting him again?

Wide Receiver

Bold: Jerry Jeudy Is a Top-15 WR

The Broncos offense will be better in 2023, and it won’t really be because of Sean Payton. It will be because … well, it had to be. The offense was something of a mess last year, but the biggest problem was just bad luck; as I noted in 100 Questions, if you ignore passing touchdowns, Russell Wilson was basically the same quarterback last year that he’s always been, and if he had had even his career average TD rate, he’d have gone from 16 touchdowns to 30. 

Who would benefit from that? Well, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler are out. Marvin Mims is interesting, but a rookie who is third or fourth in the target pecking order. Courtland Sutton has 4 touchdowns in 33 games this decade. Jeudy? He was WR6 over the last six weeks last year, with nearly 90 yards a game in that stretch. If he’s anything close to that in 2023, he’s a locked-in starter.

Bolder: Quentin Johnston Outscores Mike Williams

I’ve said it a few times this offseason, but Mike Williams is getting middled in this Chargers offense. Keenan Allen (and Austin Ekeler) will soak up the short and intermediate targets. No one is doubting that. And if the team is going to throw it deep, rookie first-rounder Quentin Johnston is the more explosive receiver better suited for big plays. As I noted in 100 Questions, Williams’ best career season by PPR points per game is worse than Allen’s worst since Williams entered the league. He lacks the upside of his elder teammate, and he lacks the explosiveness of his younger one. He’s going to get squeezed into near-irrelevance.

Boldest: No Chiefs Receiver Finishes as a Top-40 WR

If you remember training camp a year ago, Patrick Mahomes said that the Chiefs’ WR1 would be a moving target, a different person in any given game. Well, five different Chiefs receivers led the position in targets in at least one game last year, and that doesn’t even count Mecole Hardman, who had games of 5, 6 and 9 targets that never led the way. And now, the most obvious candidate to be a target hog, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is gone.

The Chiefs’ top target is Travis Kelce. After that, it might very well change every week. Rashee Rice, Justyn Ross, Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore might all finish as top-50 receivers without any of them cracking the top 40.

(A note: It’s still worth picking your favorite of that group and tossing a late pick on him. Because I might be wrong, and if so there’s plenty of upside here. But certainly don’t put yourself in a situation where a Chiefs receiver has to help you.)

Tight End

Bold: T.J. Hockenson Is a Top-2 TE

This is really just “T.J. Hockenson over Mark Andrews,” so let’s look at it that way. The biggest point in Andrews’ favor the last few years — “Well who else will Lamar Jackson throw it to?” — is potentially gone now, with Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham and Isaiah Likely all there at the same time. Andrews is still the favorite to lead this team in targets, but nowhere near what he’s done in recent seasons. Among 34 tight ends with at least 40 targets last year, Andrews’ 1.69 PPR points per target ranked only 16^th.

Tied for 18^th on that same list was T.J. Hockenson. So this is not a claim that Hockenson is that much more efficient. It’s a claim that Hockenson’s situation, where he garnered 86 targets in 10 games, is more conducive to continued quantity than Andrews’. Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook are gone. Jordan Addison might absorb everything Thielen had and then some, but even then, there’s no one in the Minnesota backfield now who can do what Cook did as a receiver. I expect Hockenson’s target total to stay higher than Andrews’, so I expect him to finish as the TE2 over the Raven.

Bolder: Cade Otton Is a Top-8 TE

Cade Otton was an excellent pass-blocker last year, even as a rookie. With the Bucs having one of the worst offensive lines in the league, that skill will keep him on the field a lot, especially with Cameron Brate now gone. And the deficiencies of that line will force Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask to get rid of the ball quickly, a bad sign for Mike Evans and a good sign for Chris Godwin/the tight ends. That combination tells me Otton has a good chance to get 5-6 targets a game, and over 17 games that’s comfortably 80-plus targets. Last year, 11 tight ends had at least 70 targets. They finished TE1-TE2-TE3-TE4-TE5-TE6-TE7-TE10-TE11-TE13-TE16. Even if Otton isn’t efficient, the raw totals are going to get him a long way in PPR.

Boldest: Both Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta Top 150 PPR Points

That total might feel relatively modest, but 150 PPR points would have been TE7 last year, only 2 points behind Tyler Higbee. This century, only five rookie tight ends have surpassed that mark:

So calling for two rookies to do it in the same year feels bold. But Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta have both found themselves in the perfect situations to thrive immediately, even if those specific roles are slightly different. For LaPorta, he’s in a Lions offense that, after Amon-Ra St. Brown, is more or less entirely devoid of known quantities among pass-catchers, and that will remain true even when Jameson Williams returns from his six-game gambling suspension. Last year, no Lions TE topped 85.5 PPR points (and he was traded midseason), but the position group as a whole tied for ninth in team fantasy scoring, thanks in large part to 4 touchdowns apiece from Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra, all after T.J. Hockenson was sent away. There’s huge opportunity for LaPorta in a TE-friendly scoring offense.

Kincaid does not have the benefit LaPorta does of a lack of known-quantity target competition. Not in a Bills offense with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Dawson Knox and James Cook. What he has, though, is a defined role. After the Bills cycled through slot receivers last year (Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, even Cole Beasley back from the dead), the slot role in 2023 is going to go to Kincaid, Khalil Shakir or Deonte Harty. And early reports are that Kincaid is the clear favorite to get the majority of those snaps. With Knox still around, Kincaid won’t have to hang around and block as much as other tight ends, leaving him free to accumulate targets, receptions and yards and a breakneck pace for a rookie TE. Expect both rookies to force their ways into the TE1 ranks.