Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football offseason can be even more exciting than the actual season. Each team starts anew, with dreams of a better record and legitimate run at the NFL playoffs. As we approach Super Bowl LVIII, it’s time to take stock in the first “shoe to drop” on the 2024 fantasy season: head coaching changes.
Let’s take a look about the NFL and take a look at each coaching change and how it could impact fantasy football.
2024 NFL Offseason Head Coaching Changes
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris
Former Head Coach: Arthur Smith
Fantasy football drafters must be excited to see Arthur Smith depart after watching three consecutive disappointing seasons with first-round tight end Kyle Pitts and a painfully frustrating rookie season for first round running back Bijan Robinson. Morris has extensive experience in Atlanta, serving as assistant head coach from 2015 to 2019 and defensive coordinator and interim head coach in 2020, taking over after Dan Quinn’s 0-5 start.
In that 2020 season, Morris relied on the arm of Matt Ryan and the receiving talents of Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, a declining Julio Jones and tight end Hayden Hurst. Atlanta has hired former Rams pass game coordinator Zac Robinson to join Morris after a very successful stint in Los Angeles. Robinson spent five seasons with the Rams and head coach Sean McVay, which certainly should translate to more production for Robinson as the lead running back.
The only question: Who will be Atlanta’s starting quarterback?
Tennessee Titans: Brian Callahan
Former Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
Tennessee hired 39-year-old Brian Callahan after five strong seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals. Callahan oversaw the selection and development of quarterback Joe Burrow, which could be a huge advantage for second-year signal-caller Will Levis. The Titans’ offense will look dramatically different with the expected departure of running back Derrick Henry. Tennessee was one of the most run-heavy teams under former head coach Mike Vrabel, ranking sixth and seventh the last two seasons in team rushing percentage.
The most noteworthy change for fantasy purposes should be the stylistic change in the Tennessee offense. Callahan comes from a pass-first attack in Cincinnati featuring Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, veteran Tyler Boyd and an elite pass-catching back in Joe Mixon. I expect a huge increase in skill positions players for the Titans, both via the draft and free agency. Leading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins turns 32 in June, and the Titans’ second-leading receiving option was tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo with just 54 receptions. Watch out for explosive and versatile second-year back Tyjae Spears, who could assume a massive opportunity share in this offense under Callahan.
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo
Former Head Coach: Bill Belichick
This was the most peculiar coaching staff change in the NFL, with Mayo a direct disciple of the Bill Belichick coaching tree. Mayo was a linebacker for Belichick for eight seasons, earning a championship in Super Bowl XLIX. His only coaching experience prior to this position was five years as New England’s inside linebackers coach. That’s a very quick ascension.
New England also brought in new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who was Cleveland’s offensive coordinator 2020-2023. Van Pelt was fired by the Browns after this season’s 45-14 loss to Houston in the AFC playoffs. With Cleveland, Van Pelt featured running back Nick Chubb an extensive amount, especially during the 2022 season. Per our FTN Utilization Tool, Chubb produced 61.4% of the Browns rushing yardage just two seasons ago. Chubb was heavily used inside the red zone, tallying 41 attempts inside the 20-yard line, 32 attempts inside the 15-yard line, and 12 attempts inside the 5-yard line. Will this mean more opportunities for Rhamondre Stevenson, who is another rusher in Mayo’s sights for 2024?
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce
Former Head Coach: Antonio Pierce (Interim)
Antonio Pierce earned the removal of the interim tag, posting a 5-4 record after taking over for Josh McDaniels in November. With Pierce as a defensive coach, all eyes will turn to new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. The hiring of the former Chicago Bears coordinator came as a shock after most felt Kliff Kingsbury was a lock to join the Raiders staff. Kingsbury quickly pivoted to the Washington Commanders, leaving the Raiders in the unenviable task of hiring a candidate who had already been rejected for the position.
Raiders fans are struggling with the hire of Getsy, who led a Bears offense that was statistically worse than the Las Vegas attack.
It’s clear the Raiders believe (hope) that Getsy’s struggles in Chicago were more a result of Justin Fields than his playcalling. Chicago did win two games with undrafted DII quarterback Tyson Bagent under center, which bolstered Getsy’s candidacy. This is one of the biggest uncertainties of the upcoming season, with Las Vegas now in desperate need of a quarterback to fit Getsy’s system. Could it be Kirk Cousins, or a rookie quarterback with the 13th overall pick such as Michael Penix from Washington?
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh
Former Head Coach: Brandon Staley
Jim Harbaugh takes over what could be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, but also needs to find a new offensive coordinator. Former Chargers OC Kellen Moore has joined Philadelphia after just one season in Los Angeles, which followed a four-year stint in Dallas. All signs point to Greg Roman to assume that position with the Chargers after serving in the same role with Harbaugh during his former tenure as San Francisco 49ers head coach. Los Angeles will likely move on from lead running back Austin Ekeler and need to restructure the contract of veteran Keenan Allen.
There is reason for optimism in Los Angeles, as the Chargers have a completely new administrative structure. They purged both head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, the latter having served with the Chargers for the past 10 seasons. Los Angeles hired Joe Horiz as the new GM, coming over from Baltimore, where he served as director of player personnel for the past five seasons. The reputation of Ravens front-office personnel is strong throughout the NFL, and Hortiz was lauded for several key free agent signings and draft selections.
Carolina Panthers: Dave Canales
Former Head Coach: Frank Reich
Dave Canales comes to Carolina to find a way to make quarterback Bryce Young and this Panthers offense effective. Canales was the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay last season, guiding veteran Baker Mayfield to his most productive NFL season. He brought Brad Idzik over as his offensive coordinator, who was the Buccaneers wide receiver coach last season. This is a quick rise for Canales, who has gone from quarterbacks coach to NFL head coach in just two seasons. Is that a concern, or has Carolina found the next great young head coach? This hire centers around the success of Young, with a strong defense already in place.
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn
Former Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Dan Quinn enters his second stint as an NFL head coach, serving as head man for six seasons for the Atlanta Falcons. Quinn did guide the Falcons to Super Bowl LI, and a 28-3 lead, before suffering a legendary comeback loss to the New England Patriots. The biggest fantasy impact will come from new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, former head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. Kingsbury spent the last year as the senior offensive analyst for the USC Trojans. As a devout believer in the spread offense, Kingsbury tries to force a plethora of one-on-one matchups to create advantages.
The big question surrounds the Washington quarterback position. The Commanders have the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, which gives Kingsbury options for his offensive scheme. As our own Jeff Ratcliffe projected in his first mock draft, Washington will likely choose between North Carolina’s Drake Maye or dual-threat Heisman winner Jayden Daniels of LSU. The Kingsbury move was a huge last-minute wild card, which makes Washington one of the most intriguing teams of the 2024 fantasy offseason. Could they pass on a quarterback at the second overall pick? Jeff explained why that is unlikely on the FTN Fantasy Football podcast this week.
Seattle Seahawks: Mike Macdonald
Former Head Coach: Pete Carroll
The hope is that Mike Macdonald can bring his defensive success in Baltimore to Seattle, creating a second version of Legion of Boom. He served as the defensive coordinator for the Ravens the last two years, and Baltimore finished second and first in weighted DVOA respectively. The biggest factor for fantasy football is who the Seahawks will bring in as offensive coordinator, since Macdonald will focus on the defense. A recent report has current Alabama OC Ryan Grubb as a possible candidate to jump from college to the pros.
