SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 4

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 3 recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPPs. 

The Red Zone is a $25 entry contest with 11,500 entries and a $50,000 grand prize (150 lineup max).

The Gunslinger is a $100 entry contest with 233 entries and a $5,000 grand prize (seven entries max).

Unlike the previous week where there was little overlap between winning Red Zone and Gunslinger lineups, Week 3’s winners had six players in common. A most obvious Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp pairing with a Chris Godwin bringback in one of the slate’s highest Vegas totals was a hit. As was a chalky Dalvin Cook fill-in at 1.75x (Alexander Mattison) and two Chargers (Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler) at very reasonable multipliers. The Red Zone winner added TE Tyler Higbee for his winning stack, which doubled up a chalky Darren Waller on the Gunslinger’s winning lineup. 

Our respective 1.44x and 1.35x average multipliers this week regressed toward last year’s mean of 1.49x. If you recall, the Week 2 winners’ average multiplier was closer to 1.1x. Also, note the average roster percentage of the Gunslinger winner (31.3%) which once again portends the idea that we don’t have to get too ‘weird’ in a smaller field tournament. 

Quarterbacks

Sam Darnold (@ DAL)

Sam Darnold is likely a popular play, paired with receiver DJ Moore, given Darnold’s multiplier and an expected fast-paced matchup with the Cowboys. It’s one of five games with an expected total over 50 points and the Panthers will likely have to air it out to keep up. The only issue with the Darnold/Moore pairing is that an ultra-cheap Chuba Hubbard will be popular as well. You may have to pick either/or in cash games and could roll with all three in large-field GPPs.

Josh Allen (vs. HOU), Matthew Stafford (vs. ARI), Dak Prescott (vs. CAR)

Plenty will opt for Josh Allen in what is set up to be a massive blowout with the Bills favored by 17 while boasting the only team total over 30. We’d have to imagine that the Bills take their foot off the gas pedal if the game goes as we believe it’s scripted which could keep Allen from a ceiling performance. If by some chance the Texans can put points up on the board and keep it somewhat close, we could be looking at an all-timer for Allen. Matthew Stafford is slightly preferred over Dak Prescott because of the multiplier difference as well as the slate-leading 55 projected total. Rams’ contests are averaging over 52 total points per game and the Cardinals have the firepower to turn this one into a barnburner. Don’t be surprised to see Stafford on optimal lineups for the second week in a row.

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Kirk Cousins (vs. CLE), Jalen Hurts (vs. KC), Justin Fields (vs. DET)

Technically, this Browns/Vikings matchup features two teams who prefer to run the ball if they had their druthers. Yet somehow, Kirk Cousins keeps finding himself in shootouts, averaging over 25 SuperDraft base points this season with three touchdown passes in consecutive outings. Jalen Hurts and his Eagles will likely be chasing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in what is pegged as the second-highest contest of the slate (54.5 points) where the Eagles are seven-point underdogs. The Chiefs have been shredded on the ground, allowing the second-most rushing YPG (160.3) and a league-high seven rush TD allowed (good for Hurts). If you’re feeling froggy, perhaps you can give rookie Justin Fields a mulligan in this low-totaled (42.5) intra-divisional matchup with the Lions. It may be early in the season, but coach Matt Nagy is fighting for his job. Be sure that Fields is actually starting though, because Andy Dalton has been practicing (albeit, in limited capacity) and they haven’t named their starting QB yet.

Favorite plays: Darnold, Stafford, Hurts

Running backs

Chuba Hubbard (@ DAL) – GPP fade

Here is some chalk that has the capability of busting as this just doesn’t have the same feel (nor matchup) as Alexander Mattison’s high-multiplier matchup last week. Hubbard is confirmed as the starting back and should see the bulk of touches over Royce Freeman. Hubbard can get involved as a pass-catcher as well (caught three of five targets last week) but will likely need to at least get into the end zone to pay off on Sunday.

David Montgomery (vs. DET), Najee Harris (@ GB), Zack Moss (vs. HOU)

David Montgomery will be a chalky play on most DFS sites, but his meager 1.25x multiplier on SuperDraft might keep his roster percentage in check. Montgomery has had two lackluster games in a row after topping 100 rushing yards and hitting paydirt in Week 1 against the Rams. Hopefully the Bears get him a bit more involved in the pass game this week. Najee Harris hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards nor found the end zone on the ground as a pro, but had that massive 19-target, 14-catch game last week. With the Steelers’ offense hampered and injury-riddled, Harris will serve as the focal point yet again and could earn on his generous 1.45x tag on sheer volume alone. Zack Moss pops out in a fabulous projected game script where copious among of red zone and goal line opportunities should present themselves. Moss has three scores over his last two games. Per Ben Gretch’s Stealing Signals newsletter, Moss had seven high-value touches last week compared to just two for fellow back Devin Singletary. Call me nuts if you will, but I’m leaning Moss over Hubbard for my lineups this week.

Alvin Kamara (vs. NYG), Derrick Henry (vs. NYJ), Saquon Barkley (@ NO), D’Andre Swift (@ CHI)

Some of these big dogs will eat, but picking out the right one might be a tough task. Derrick Henry should have a favorable gamescript and will get all the touches he can handle, especially if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones don’t suit up. The Jets do boast a strong run-stopping unit and will be laser-focused on stopping Henry. Though they’re one of the only teams allowing opposing runners to average under 4.0 YPC since the beginning of the 2020 season, they’ve already allowed five rushing scores through three games this season. Alvin Kamara and his Saints will be back at home at the Caesars Superdome for the first time all season and the stadium should be electric. Through three weeks, Kamara already has more games of 20-plus carries (two) than he had in all of the 2020 regular season (just one). This should be the week where he finally grabs a rushing score, and we shouldn’t be surprised if he finds the box at least twice in the game.

Saquon Barkley worked without restrictions in Week 3 as he ran the ball 16 times, saw seven targets and was in on 85% of offensive snaps. Though the Saints’ run defense is an imposing unit, Barkley will still heavily relied-upon Sunday, especially with the Giants’ WR room a full-on MASH unit. Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton (hamstrings for both) did not practice on Thursday and Kenny Golladay (hip) continues to be limited in practice. Better for full PPR sites but Barkley could see double-digit targets. To make our decisions ever more difficult, there’s talented Lions’ back D’Andre Swift with a tasty 1.45x multiplier and “in line for an increased role.” That’s a scary proposition for those who don’t plan to include him in lineups considering he scored 20.2 base points (14-47-1, 7-60-0) on just 55% of snaps last week. 

Favorite plays: Kamara, Swift, Harris, Moss, Barkley

Wide receivers

Tough decisions this week and our best bet in GPPs is to build our lineups focusing on certain games. There are a few wideouts I like as stand-alone plays (without their quarterbacks):

• Terry McLaurin (@ ATL) – As if a target hog with a matchup against a subpar Falcons’ secondary needs more attention. The receiver known as “F1” is one of Jeff Ratcliffe’s featured plays in his WR-CB Matchups column.
• Michael Pittman (@ MIA) – Tough matchup against the Dolphins but Pittman is Carson Wentz’ standout target with a whopping 24 targets in their last two games. A few catches and a touchdown will have Pittman easily paying off on his mispriced 1.8x multiplier.
• Jaylen Waddle (vs. IND) – Another rookie having an outstanding start to his season. Fellow wideout Will Fuller is dealing with a chest injury this week and Waddle is coming off an outing in Week 3 where he caught a whopping 12-of-13 targets with his QB, Jacoby Brissett, dead locked in on him.
• Davante Adams (vs. PIT) – No one ever has to sell anyone on the league’s premier wideout who has seen a 33% and 58% target share over the last two weeks. The only downside is his low multiplier but that usually doesn’t hinder Davante.
• Brandon Aiyuk (vs. SEA) – This play depends on whether tight end George Kittle plays or not. Kittle is dealing with a calf injury and has yet to practice this week. Though Deebo Samuel (1.35x) is certainly in play, I advise considering Aiyuk as a one-off in game stacks where it would be likely that he sees more than last week’s six targets if Kittle misses the game.
• Brandin Cooks (@ BUF) – A tough matchup but his 1.45x multiplier fails to put respect on the name of a man who is fantasy’s number six highest producer at the position to date. Cooks is averaging 7.6 receptions and 107.3 receiving yards on 10.7 targets per game.

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Stack ideas

Rams/Cardinals full game stack

• Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods (1.35x)/your choice of Cardinal WR. DeAndre Hopkins (1.1x) may get some of that Jalen Ramsey treatment, but he’s due for a blowup game as he’s yet to top 100 yards in an outing this season. Rondale Moore is a more volatile option but with a big payoff at his multiplier.

Panthers/Cowboys mini stack

• Sam Darnold/DJ Moore/one of CeeDee Lamb (1.35x) or Amari Cooper (1.3x). Lamb and Cooper have spent equal time in the slot (35%) and on the perimeters and even top Panthers’ cornerback Donte Jackson shouldn’t be much of a hindrance.

Eagles/Chiefs full game stack

• Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Jalen Reagor/one of Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Picking between the two Chiefs’ studs is always a tough call but Hill is coming off consecutive mediocre outings and could be ready to feast on these weak Philly corners.

Favorite plays: McLaurin, Moore, Hill, Smith (PHI), Hill, Robinson, Pittman, Aiyuk (if Kittle out)

Tight ends

It’s a huge difference from last week where there seemed to be a plethora of mid-range multiplier options due to smash. Darren Waller failed to do so yet still found his way into the winning Gunslinger lineup. Though Travis Kelce is always in play, it’s T.J. Hockenson who stands out as the squeaky wheel to be greased after a disappointing result in Week 3 (3-2-10-0). Last season against the Bears, Hock hit a 5-5-56-1 line in Week 1, then later in the season, caught seven of nine targets for 84 yards. 

I’ll be mostly fading Cowboys’ tight end Dalton Schultz following that outlier two-touchdown outing on Monday night that I believe most will be chasing at that tasty 1.85x multiplier. I suppose you could consider him for cash games but I’d rather roll with a more consistent Logan Thomas (1.55x), Buffalo’s Dawson Knox (1.7x) or perhaps a bounce back from Noah Fant (1.6x) who faces a Ravens’ team that his hurting on the defensive end and has allowed a league-high 23 receptions and 290 receiving yards to opposing tight ends (though two of those outings were against Kelce and Waller).

Favorite play: T.J. Hockenson