WR/CB matchups for fantasy football

Fantasy football is all about the matchups, especially when it comes to WR vs. CB. Remember when fantasy matchup analysis used to be “Team A gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers”? Well, we’ve moved from analog to digital and now look at matchups on an individual level.

Each week, I dig through the FTN Data to identify the actual coverage tendencies for all 32 NFL teams and compile this information in the WR/CB Matchups Tool. The information is then distilled down to give you the biggest upgrades and downgrades this week.

Before we get into this week’s information, we should note a few things about shadow coverage. For starters, shadow coverage is relatively rare in the NFL. In fact, so teams don’t use it at all and instead just let their corners play their sides. We track all shadow situations in our Shadow Index.

A shadow situation occurs when a corner travels with a wide receiver around the formation. Shadows can occur for an entire game or only part of the contest. A shadow situation does not mean the corner is on the receiver 100% of the time. This isn’t backyard football. Receivers move around and occasionally will avoid the shadow. Also, a shadow situation is not always a bad thing for receivers. If the corner is not particular good, the receiver could actually benefit from the shadow.

Matchup upgrades

Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd vs. Jacksonville

With Tee Higgins sidelined, both Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd get a healthy upgrade Thursday night. Chase has been a downfield dynamo for Joe Burrow with a healthy 16.5-yard average depth of target. He lines up on the left 47% of the time, which means he figures to see plenty of Shaquill Griffin. The former Seahawks corner has seen the highest aDOT of the Jags corners at 13.4 for the season. Boyd will face Chris Claybrooks out of the slot. Receivers have caught all 10 catchable targets thrown into Claybrooks’ coverage this season.

Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders vs. Houston

Cole Beasley may be coming off a high-volume game, but his matchup against Desmond King in the slot is a tough one. We want to go after the Texans on the outside with Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders. Despite his lackluster start to the season. Diggs enters the week fifth among wideouts in expected fantasy points. A big game is brewing and both he and Sanders offer high ceilings against Vernon Hargreaves and Tremon Smith. Hargreaves allows a whopping 17.1 yards per catch and has allowed 4-of-5 contested targets to be caught. Smith will get the start if Terrance Mitchell remains in concussion protocol. He’s allowed four catches on five catchable targets at a clip of 16.5 yards per reception.

Odell Beckham vs. Minnesota

The veteran got back on the field last week and caught all five of his catchable targets at a healthy 20.2-yard average depth of target. We know Odell Beckham has a high weekly ceiling, and he gets the matchup to go off in this one. Patrick Peterson isn’t what he once was, and he’s allowed all eight of his catchable targets to be caught with receivers averaging 16.0 yards per catch against Peterson. Beckham will also see his share of Bashaud Breeland, who has surrendered three scores already. He also has not fared well in contested situations with receivers catching all four contested targets against him.

Terry McLaurin vs. Atlanta

Terry McLaurin can do it all, and he’s had at least one step of separation on 87% of his targeted routes. He’s also caught 19-of-21 catchable targets, including all three in contested situations. The Falcons secondary has allowed six scores in coverage in 2021, with Fabien Moreau accounting for three of them. McLaurin will see plenty of Moreau, with 44% of his routes coming on the left so far this season.

Other matchup upgrades

Allen Robinson vs. Detroit – If you can get past the quarterback situation, Robinson is intriguing. Amani Oruwariye allows 14.7 yards per catch nine receptions allowed on 11 catchable targets.
Jakobi Meyers vs. Tampa Bay – The Pats’ receiver is as reliable as they come with 19 receptions on 21 catchable targets. He gets the Ross Cockrell bump this week. Receivers have had at least one step of separation on 89% of targeted routes against Cockrell.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk vs. Seattle – Samuel has been the more productive of the two so far, but Aiyuk’s aDOT of 13.5 is significantly higher than Samuel’s 7.0. Regardless, both offer upside against D.J. Reed and Tre Flowers. Reed has allowed two scores and receivers average 15.6 yards per catch against Flowers.
Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb vs. Carolina – The Panthers are short-handed at corner following Jaycee Horn’s injury and will likely have to rely on veteran A.J. Bouye this week. Advantage: Cooper and Lamb. Likewise, Donte Jackson has allowed 11 receptions on 12 catchable targets at a clip of 14.1 yards per catch this season.

Matchup downgrades

DJ Moore vs. Trevon Diggs (expected shadow)

The matchup may be good on the other side of this one, but it’s tough to get excited for DJ Moore here. To his credit, Moore has been excellent so far this season. His nine contested catches (on 11 contested targets) lead all receivers, he’s tied for fifth at the position in catches (22), and ranks seventh among wideouts in yards (285). But he gets a rough draw in this one with shadow coverage likely to come from Trevon Diggs. Diggs has three picks and three pass breakups on 16 targets this season. That’s a massive 38% play of ball.

DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore vs. LA Rams

This isn’t the week to roll with the Arizona passing game. We have a banged-up DeAndre Hopkins, Kyler Murray has been playing musical chairs with his target distribution each week, and the Cards face a stout Rams secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing primarily in the slot this season and isn’t likely to shadow here. That means Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore will see plenty of Ramsey, who is allowing just 7.6 yards per catch. Hopkins will get his fill on Darious Williams, who has held his own with tight coverage on a healthy 30% of his targeted routes along with just 8.7 yards per catch.

Marquise Brown vs. Denver

Brown is the only receiver to have more than one target in busted coverage this season. In fact, he already has four such targets, converting three of them for 80 yards and a score. These are fluke plays, so don’t expect them to continue. But it is worth factoring them into your evaluation of Brown. He also gets a tough draw against the Broncos. While Patrick Surtain has seen a hefty 21.3-yard aDOT, he’s excelled in contested situations with opposing wideouts catching just 3-of-9 contested in 2021. Meanwhile, Kyle Fuller has allowed a 48% catch rate on the season.

Other matchup downgrades

Marquez Callaway vs. James Bradberry (expected shadow) – It hasn’t been a good start to the season for Callaway and that likely won’t change this week. Bradberry has allowed 18 catches, but at just 9.1 yards per catch and is seeing a lowly 7.0 aDOT.
Mike Williams vs. Las Vegas – Williams enters the week second among wideouts in expected fantasy points, so his production isn’t a fluke. But this is a tough matchup against Casey Hayward. The former Chargers corner has allowed just six catches in on 11 targets at 5.3 yards per catch in 2021.
Brandin Cooks vs. Tre’Davious White (expected shadow) – He’s the only show in town for the Texans, which means he’s likely to get the star treatment from White in this one. White has blanketed opposing wideouts with tight coverage on 47% of his targeted routes.
Michael Pittman vs. Xavien Howard (expected shadow) – Carson Wentz clearly loves Pittman, with 28 targets already this season. But the Colts wideout will likely draw Howard, who has allowed just five catches on nine catchable targets in primary coverage this season.
Kenny Golladay vs. New Orleans – Golladay figures to be the top target with both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard banged up, but that means he’ll likely see plenty of Marshon Lattimore, who has bounced back after a lackluster 2020 season. Lattimore has allowed just six catches while notching a pick and three pass breakups in two games played.