SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 3

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Week 2 recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPPs. The Red Zone is a $20 entry contest with 11,500 entries and a $50,000 grand prize (150 lineup max). The Gunslinger is a $100 entry contest with 233 entries and a $5,000 grand prize (seven entries max).

There were only three players in common in both winning lineups – a chalky CeeDee Lamb, veteran tight end Rob Gronkowski and slate-breaker Cooper Kupp. The Red Zone winner played Josh Allen “naked” (with no complementary WR or TE) but he didn’t really need a massive performance from Allen as he nailed most of the optimal plays at the position in Week 2 because of the afternoon performances of Tyler Lockett (8-178-1) and Derrick Henry (35-182-3, 6-55-0). Henry put up 46.7 base points. Shockingly, Henry only topped 40 base points once last season, though he finished between 35 and 39.5 three times. 

Note the 30 lesser SuperDraft multiplier points the winner of the Gunslinger needed to take that contest down, with a much smaller field and no 150-max capabilities. The Gunslinger winner’s average roster percentage was five points higher than the Red Zone’s winner (19.4% to 14.9%) while their average multiplier (1.41x) was much closer to the median and considerably higher than the average of the Red Zone winner (1.23x). The winner of the Gunslinger got extra sneaky with an unowned, super-contrarian Tyrod Taylor/Brandin Cooks pairing that ended up smashing for over 50 SD points combined. Outside of those two, his lineup was quite chalky.

It’s abit of a different format this week as I’ve charted projections for my top plays at each position with base fantasy points based on SuperDraft’s 0.5 PPR scoring as well as the “SD Pts” with the multiplier applied. Remember that SuperDraft gives two bonus points for 100 yards rushing/receiving and 300 yards passing. Assume that anyone I have listed as a cash play can be used in GPPs as well. Players listed as MME are more volatile plays specifically allocated for the $20 Red Zone GPP or any contest where you can make up to 150 lineups. 

Quarterbacks

Core – Justin Fields 

Fairly straightforward as far as projecting who the field will use this week. Or shall I say, the Fields. Justin Fields making his first career start with the lovely 1.7x multiplier will be a popular option and one we should consider for our main lineups. The Cleveland Browns have a studly secondary on paper but were shredded by Patrick Mahomes (337-3-0, 9.4 YPA) in Week 1 and were getting torched by Tyrod Taylor last week (10-for-11, 125 yards) before his injury. Fields should provide a shot in the arm to this offense as a dual-threat QB, but I’d be a touch wary before simply locking him in everywhere because of his tasty multiplier. If you want to differentiate from the field, there are plenty of options. I’d lock him in for 50/50s and perhaps one-of-three main GPP’s but keep an open mind.

Low multipliers – Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert

We can sometimes be overwhelmed when there are several options around a price point. But I’d argue that these three guys are the ones most capable of scoring the most base points in Week 3. Honorable mention to studmuffin Kyler Murray, but at his 1x base, I’d rather roll with one of the other three. Lamar Jackson is my top projected guy on base points with a cake matchup against the Lions. His passing numbers are below par, but he’s made up for it the last two weeks with 193 yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts on the ground. The Lions have given up six passing touchdowns and three rushing scores through two games so far with their defensive outlook for Week 3 not looking so pretty.

Russell Wilson has 325-3-0 written all over him with the Seahawks boasting a 28-point implied total and their matchup with the Vikings set with one of the highest over/unders (55 points) on the slate. The key factor to a big game from Russ would be making sure Dalvin Cook is healthy and playing — otherwise, this one may get out of hand. That passing projection gives him 27 standard SD points and puts him over 30 with the multiplier. If you think it’s attainable or he can exceed it, you may be looking at a gem for someone likely to be rostered by less than 10 percent of GPP players.

Josh Allen hasn’t been his studly 2020 self yet and a matchup with a stout Washington Football Team defense may not be the best spot for his 2021 breakout game. But he will certainly be overlooked in GPPs and he’s capable of dropping a 30-burger at any time. I’d consider some Allen-Diggs combos on teams where you load up on the higher expected point total games (SEA-MIN, TB-LAR, LAC-KC) at other positions.

Justin Herbert sticks out in this 54.5-total matchup with the powerhouse Kansas City Chiefs where the Chargers are road dogs and will likely have to be firing to keep pace. Herbert has fantastic weapons in place (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler) to truly splash with a big performance and earn a spot in the optimal lineup. I prefer Herbert to Allen this week and it’s close between him, Wilson and Jackson.

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High multipliers – Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence

Daniel Jones will be among the highest-rostered options this week given his 1.55x multiplier, coming off 10 days’ rest in a game where he flashed his rushing chops. Facing a dismal Falcons’ secondary, there are many reasons to consider Jones over Fields on a main lineup. The bust factor is always high with Jones, but the matchup makes him a very tempting consideration. First overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence hasn’t made his pro splash yet and a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals doesn’t look friendly on paper. Projected game script will have the Jaguars in catch-up mode and pass-heavy most of the contest so the potential for 20-plus base points with a couple of passing touchdowns is high. I’d consider him in MME builds.

Running backs

Core – Austin Ekeler

The Chargers’ Austin Ekeler projects as my top scorer at the position, mostly boosted by a 1.35x multiplier that did not move from the previous week. Ekeler put up 16 base points (9-for-54 on the ground, 9-for-61 in the air). In a game where he should see a high volume of touches, a similar point total shouldn’t be difficult. If he gets in the end zone, the cherry is on top. Note that the Chiefs have allowed a league-worst 202 rushing yards and seven rushing scores through the first two weeks. 

Cash – Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson

Najee Harris scored his first career touchdown last week and caught all five of his targets for 43 yards despite getting just 10 carries. What matters most is his usage – 100% of snaps in Week 1 and 94.7% in Week 2. A grind-‘em-out matchup with division rival Cincinnati should facilitate a scenario where Harris is heavily utilized, and likely, efficient. Consider him core if wideout Diontae Johnson misses the game (did not practice Thursday).

Derrick Henry will find his way onto a high number of rosters across all types of contests due to last week’s monster performance. The Seahawks have served up 325 yards on the ground (second most through two weeks). The running back on the other side of that game, Chris Carson, will also be popular coming off a two-touchdown performance despite just 31 rushing yards. I do prefer the passing game in this one (Wilson and DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett) and wouldn’t mind bringing it back with A.J. Brown or Henry. Alvin Kamara could be overlooked after his worst rushing performance ever (5-8-0, 6-25-0). New England’s defense thrives on taking out opposing offense’s best players, but Kamara is a difficult man to maintain. The notion of him underperforming in back-to-back weeks is a tough pill to swallow. 

GPP – Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Javonte Williams, Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Jonathan Taylor is a strong contrarian gut play with the possibility that one of Brett Hundley or Jacob Eason would start at QB for the Colts with Carson Wentz still not practicing. The Vegas line would move further in favor of the Titans, boosting Derrick Henry as a strong play and making Taylor overlooked because of projected gamescript. With Hundley at the helm, I would expect for the Colts to lean heavily on Taylor and for him to see 20-plus carries no matter how the game flows. He is one of the league’s most dynamic runners, averaging five yards per carry with seven runs of 20-plus yards last season. 

The Giants haven’t played since last Thursday, and with Saquon Barkley more heavily involved in that Week 2 tilt (83% of snaps), it’s quite possible he gets fully unleashed here against the Falcons. It may be the last time we see him available at such a reasonable multiplier. Leonard Fournette’s price point stands out as does his 11 targets over the Bucs’ first two games. With Ronald Jones getting benched for a second week in a row (bad block last week) and coach Bruce Arians seemingly fed up with him, it appears that we may have some temporary clarity in the backfield. 

Javonte Williams is a guy I’m going to continue to plug blindly into lineup because of the 2x multiplier and how great he’s looked, albeit in a timeshare. He split carries evenly with veteran Melvin Gordon last week (13 apiece) though he produced more than twice the output (64 rushing yards for Williams, 31 for Gordon). Just one reception in each of the last two games and a tough Jets’ defensive line, but I don’t want to be miss out on him popping a big one. If he can hit 15 base points, that 30 SDP will prove mighty valuable. 

Finally, the least respected man in the fantasy game (Clyde Edwards-Helaire) will have an opportunity to make up for a poor start to his season. Patrick Mahomes just doesn’t dump off to frequently to his backs and Darrel Williams scooped his goal line opportunity last week. I’m a big believer in buying dips and going against a groupthink. On other DFS sites where he’s cheap, he may be popular. But here on SuperDraft, I’m fairly certain he won’t be one of the top five RBs rostered. In a high-total matchup against a Chargers’ run D that is allowing a 5.6 yards-per-carry, I’m probably going to get suckered in.

Wide receivers

Core – Tyreek Hill, Mike Williams

The Ravens did a tremendous job of taking Tyreek Hill out of the game last week (3-14-0 on 4 targets) and you better believe that squeaky wheel shall be greased. The Chargers’ secondary is a solid group but won’t be able to contain the most dynamic receiver in the game. On the other side of this one, Keenan Allen may be the preferred option based on raw points, but SuperDraft didn’t change Mike Williams’ 1.55x multiplier. Hence, we attack. The true Williams breakout appears to be underway with 15-173-2 on 22 targets thus far (Allen: 13-208-0 on 21 targets). Chiefs-Chargers is my favorite game on the slate, in case you can’t tell.

Cash – A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Sterling Shepard, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett

A.J. Brown had a non-Brown-like drop, catching just 3-of-9 targets while new teammate Julio Jones and bruiser back Henry shined in their Week 2 tilt. It’s a good spot for AJB to bounce back against a Colts’ defense that’s allowed six passing touchdowns and 14.4 yards per reception (second highest).

I have a slight preference for DK Metcalf over Tyler Lockett, though we can never be shocked if it’s ever a Lockett week. Metcalf will see some Patrick Peterson coverage but should do some damage running routes against Bashaud Breeland. Per PFF’s Ian Hartitz, the Vikings’ cornerback duo has allowed 15 receptions, 266 yards and five touchdowns (no interceptions).

Many will go back to the well with Matthew Stafford’s breakfastmate Cooper Kupp, but there’s some allure to this being a Bobby Trees week (Robert Woods, 1.3x). Being underweight on Kupp after back-to-back massive outings could be a mistake, but I’ve got my eyes on other wideout targets.

Sterling Shepard is the preferred pairing with Daniel Jones, especially since Kenny Golladay continues to be dogged by injuries. This week, it’s a hamstring. Shepard has 16 receptions on 19 targets through the first two weeks. Chris Godwin may see some Jalen Ramsey, but Ramsey has only spent 26% of his coverage time in the slot where Godwin has lined up on 68% of his routes so far. Mike Evans had his day in the sun last week, and with Antonio Brown in COVID-19 protocol, my preference among these wideouts is Godwin. 

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GPP – Marquise Brown, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman, Courtland Sutton, Rondale Moore

Marquise Brown has been limited in practice this week with an ankle issue, but it’s the same one he dealt with in his 10-6-113-1 outing against the Chiefs Sunday. Count me in on Lamar Jackson’s primary target and I may even add tight end Mark Andrews into a double-TE stack with Lions’ T.J. Hockenson in a GPP. 

Michael Pittman catching passes from Brett Hundley seems less than ideal but a multiplier near the bottom-end certainly places him firmly in play. Especially if the Colts are playing from behind and whomever is quarterbacking needs to be airing it out. Denver’s Courtland Sutton stepped up with a monster 12-9-159-0 outing last week and is Teddy Bridgewater’s primary read but we’re dealing with a low 41.5 Vegas total where the Broncos are 10.5 favorites and may not need to air it out. Though the best way to attack the Jets is through the air. If you want to get weird, consider Tim Patrick (1.55x) or K.J. Hamler (1.75x) in GPPs. I bet you Hamler catches a 40-yard bomb.

Rondale Moore appears to have a growing role in this offense with plays specifically designed for him. He caught and ran a 77-yarder, ending up with 22.9 base points at his 2x multiplier. The 1.85x is still tempting, especially against this subpar Jaguars’ secondary. A letdown game is quite possible though, and since he will be popular, I’ll probably go in a different direction on my main build.

MME – Quintez Cephus, Jakobi Meyers 

Quintez Cephus is the wideout to have on the Lions, as he and QB Jared Goff has established a solid rapport. Thirteen targets through his first two games with a touchdown in each game and a possible bringback in a Lamar stack. He’s a solid pivot off Arizona’s Moore in that price range. I’m also back on the Jakobi Meyers train, though it’s quite the contrarian play in a NO-NE matchup very few will have exposure to. Meyers is still looking for his first career score and it’s coming. He leads this offense in targets (15) through two games.

Tight ends

The position is loaded with phenomenal options this week and most of them are reasonably priced, so it doesn’t make much sense to take low-percentage shots at the Cole Kmets and Dawson Knoxes of the league. A 1.3x Darren Waller coming off a rough outing seems mighty tempting. I’ll take that all day over a fully priced Travis Kelce. The only hesitation is T.J. Hockenson (1.4x) has an even better multiplier and we’ve got Rob Gronkowski coming off two consecutive games with two scores apiece. This is a good week for two-TE builds (one in the flex) with Waller and Hockenson as the most tantalizing options. Feel free to mix and match depending on which games you have stacked.

Make sure you tune in to FTNDaily’s SuperDraft Sunday Study at 11 a.m. ET Sunday. This week, it will be host Joe Metz along with Javi Prellezo and me. 

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