Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 4 was crazy for the NFL and fantasy football alike.
We saw a ton of high-scoring games, a few fantasy-altering injuries and some breakout games from struggling players. Like we will do every Tuesday, join me as I go through all of the action, breaking down notable snaps, targets, routes and much, much more.
Let’s go.
Cincinnati Bengals 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Joe Mixon enjoyed a breakout game in Week 4, carrying the ball 25 times for 151 yards and two touchdowns, while adding six catches for 30 yards and another score. His 83% snap rate was easily his highest of the season, while he also ran 24 pass routes. Giovani Bernard only played 13 snaps, largely due to the fact that the Bengals weren’t chasing points, though Bernard out-snapped Mixon 6-1 on third and long situations.
A.J. Green is transforming into dust. He played 10 more snaps than rookie Tee Higgins, but the veteran wasn’t on the field as much in the fourth quarter, while he once again continues to get off the field slowly. Green is droppable in 10-team leagues and the Bengals could move on from him before the trade deadline.
Another strong snap share for James Robinson (76%), who is now handling 82% of the non-QB rushing attempts for the Jaguars. This is also the second consecutive game where Jacksonville found themselves chasing points, and yet Robinson still played a ton of snaps, while Chris Thompson, who is supposed to be the Jaguars’ version of Giovani Bernard, has played 46 total snaps over the last two weeks. Robinson ran 24 routes on Sunday, a top-10 number among running backs. He’s a legit must-start, top-15 back every week.
D.J. Chark returned from a one-game absence and immediately saw a team-high 25% target share. After seeing just seven targets in his first two games, the Jaguars defense is coming back down to Earth, which should result in more negative game scripts for Jacksonville. I told everyone to buy low on Chark weeks ago, and hopefully you listened.
Tee Higgins has now seen a solid 16 targets over his last two games, as he continues to emerge as the WR2 of a pass-happy Cincinnati offense. Higgins has run more routes than Green over the last two weeks and needs to be rostered in 100% of fantasy leagues.
Red-zone usage
Chark converted both of his end-zone targets into touchdowns Sunday and was among the league leaders in that department prior to getting hurt last season. He’s a top-15 wide receiver the rest of the way.
Over the last two weeks, Higgins is tied for the league-lead with three end-zone targets, as he continues to see his role increase, especially with the Bengals not having any real threat at the tight end position.
Cleveland Browns 49, Dallas Cowboys 38
The Browns backfield obviously needs to be discussed. Nick Chubb left this game with an MCL injury, one that will sideline him for several weeks. Kareem Hunt was banged up heading into this game and only played 26 snaps. Cleveland gave D'Ernest Johnson 13 carries in this game, though six came in the fourth quarter. Hunt is obviously going to be the lead back going forward, but it is worth noting his pass-catching role diminished when Chubb left, as he wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Dontrell Hilliard also played the majority of the third-down snaps after the first quarter. Still, Hunt should see 18-25 touches every single week, vaulting him into top-10 running back range until Chubb returns.
For those in dynasty leagues, don’t sleep on rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones. After not playing a single snap the first three weeks of the year, Peoples-Jones logged 44% of the snaps against the Cowboys, making him the WR3 for the Browns. Keep an eye on him as the season rolls along.
Odell Beckham Jr. went off Sunday, torching the Cowboys to the tune of 5-81-2 through the air and 2-73-1 on the ground. The Browns are still running the ball 53.2% of the time, the highest rate in the league. But when they throw, they are throwing to Beckham, who is sporting a 29% target share, one of the highest marks in football.
Meanwhile, I’m worried about Michael Gallup. In a game where Dallas attempted nearly 60 passes, Gallup only saw five targets. Despite leading the NFL in routes run, Gallup has produced just one good fantasy game thus far, as CeeDee Lamb has taken over as the number-two receiver on this team. Operating out of the slot 92.8% of the time this year, Lamb is getting better matchups and seeing higher percentage targets than Gallup, who is on the perimeter. His 17.5 yards before the catch per reception is second-highest in football, while Cooper and Lamb are working closer to the line of scrimmage.
Red-zone usage
Lamb saw two end-zone targets in this game, as did Beckham, converting both of his into touchdowns. Odell smashed in the best matchup in fantasy so looking to sell-high is definitely a viable strategy.
New Orleans Saints 35, Detroit Lions 29
All right. I don’t know what to make of this Detroit backfield. Last week, D’Andre Swift logged just five offensive snaps, but Sunday, the rookie played nearly 40% of the Detroit snaps. Adrian Peterson remains the lead back, but Kerryon Johnson saw his playing time decrease — especially on early downs, where he only played two snaps. Swift could have a second-half breakout similar to Miles Sanders from 2019, but this entire backfield is less than enticing for fantasy at the moment.
Tre'Quan Smith remains an every-down player for the Saints with Michael Thomas sidelined. He played 100% of the snaps last week and 89% of the snaps this week, finishing with a pair of touchdown grabs. The Saints have a bye in Week 6 so New Orleans could keep Thomas out for one more week, keeping Smith on the WR3 radar.
Through four games, Marvin Jones has been targeted just 19 times for an ugly 14.3% target share. He is still top-10 in end-zone targets, but the Lions are using their tight ends and running backs a lot more consistently in the passing game this season, which is hurting Jones’ target ceiling. I hate, hate, hate to say it, but Jones is a drop candidate right now. Excuse me while I go cry.
Red-zone usage
Both Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray found the end zone in this game, with Murray scoring twice. Kamara saw six red-zone carries to Murray’s two, though Murray found the end zone from three and six yards out. With Mike Thomas out, the Saints have committed to the run, calling run at a top-11 rate over the last three weeks. Murray is averaging 13 carries per game over the last two weeks and has standalone flex value for the time being.
Baltimore Ravens 31, Washington Football Team 17
The snap count still isn’t through the roof, but Antonio Gibson continues to emerge as the top back in Washington. He enjoyed a breakout game against a tough Ravens defense Sunday, totaling 128 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on a career-high 17 touches. J.D. McKissic is still playing more snaps when Washington is trailing, which will be the case a lot this year, but the team has said that Gibson’s role will continue to increase as the season progresses.
If you can help it, do not start a Baltimore running back in fantasy. Sure, Mark Ingram scored from a yard out, but he played 14 snaps and carried the ball eight times. When are you going to feel good starting any of these backs? In a game they led throughout, Ingram played the fewest snaps and if they are ever chasing points, Ingram probably plays the fewest snaps, too.
Despite playing with poor quarterback play and facing a tough defense, Terry McLaurin still converted 10-of-14 targets for 118 yards. He’s doing it all right now, as McLaurin has seen just over 27% of the team’s targets this season. The sophomore is making tons of plays, as he is second in the league with seven receptions of 20 yards or more.
Red-zone usage
Gibson continues to take over as the short-yardage back. He saw three carries from inside the 5-yard line in this game, tied for the most from Week 4. Peyton Barber saw one such carry and didn’t convert. It was his first carry from that part of the field since Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings 31, Houston Texans 23
Not much stood out from this game. Dalvin Cook dominated once again, while Justin Jefferson went for 100 yards for the second consecutive game. For the Texans, meanwhile, despite playing 94% of the snaps, Brandin Cooks failed to record a catch. I am taking the “L” on Cooks for 2020. Houston did just fire Bill O’Brien so it will be interesting to see how their offense looks going forward.
Seattle Seahawks 31, Miami Dolphins 23
Carson only played 35 snaps, but it’s worth noting he left the game for a bit after suffering a hard hit to the helmet. After seeing just six carries in Week 1, Carson has now carried the football 17, 14 and 16 times over the last three games.
For Miami, Myles Gaskin continues to run as the top running back, logging 65% of the snaps. His touches fell down to 13 as the Dolphins had to abandon the run but he ran 30 pass routes in this game, a top-five number among running backs for the week. For the season, only Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson have run more pass routes than Gaskin (98).
DeVante Parker’s game was very impressive considering he left early after a minor ankle issue. He hauled in 10-of-12 targets for 110 yards and while there was some Preston Williams hype during the offseason, Parker has remained the clear top option in this passing game, as he’s been targeted on a healthy 23.2% of his routes through four weeks.
Isaiah Ford, meanwhile, saw 10 targets in this game and has now been targeted on over 20% of his routes. Mike Gesicki is still being used as a slot receiver but he’s not in an every-down role. Ford has a 10- and nine-target game, both of which came against defenses that struggle to defend the slot (Seattle and Buffalo).
Red-zone usage
Carlos Hyde was inactive for this game, but it doesn’t matter. Carson is this team’s short-yardage back, as he saw three carries from inside the 5-yard line, converting two of them into touchdowns. He’s handled nearly 72% of Seattle’s carries from that part of the field thus far.
Carolina Panthers 31, Arizona Cardinals 21
Mike Davis continues to operate as the lead back in Christian McCaffrey’s absence, logging over 70% of the snaps for the second straight week. However, it is worth noting that backup Reggie Bonnafon carried the football 10 times in this game. Still, since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Davis ranks 13th among running backs in carries (29), third in targets (15) and 10th in pass routes (46).
Chase Edmonds needs to be added in all leagues. For the second straight week, Kenyan Drake has struggled in a very favorable matchup, while Edmonds produced, catching five-of-six targets for 24 yards and a score. Drake had been running more routes than Edmonds but in Week 4, he didn’t run a single pass route, while Edmonds ran 15.
As I discussed in my stock report article, Robby Anderson remains the No. 1 receiver in Carolina. He saw 11 more targets on Sunday and is now flirting with a 25% market share for the season. Below is what I wrote about Anderson in my stock report column:
During his time with the Jets, Anderson was used as a field-stretcher, as he averaged 15.3 targeted air yards in 2019, the seventh-most in the NFL. However, with the Panthers, Anderson is being used more on slants and in the intermediate game, as that number has dropped to 9.6, while his yards before the catch per reception is down by about four yards. This is notable because Teddy Bridgewater is more likely to target the intermediate areas of the field which is where Robby is operating from. Anderson’s target shares during the first four games are as followed: 18.5%, 25.0%, 23.5% and 30.5%. He has also led the team in targets in each of the last two games. Consider him a strong WR3 with WR2 upside the rest of the way.
Red-zone usage
Edmonds had two red-zone targets in this game, while also seeing a carry from inside the 5-yard line. Drake has not been very effective so far this season and I could easily see the Cardinals giving Edmonds more work starting as soon as Week 5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38, Los Angeles Chargers 31
The Chargers backfield is about to change after Austin Ekeler suffered a serious hamstring injury that will sideline him for several weeks. Joshua Kelley logged 57% of the snaps and carried the football nine times, while Justin Jackson played 40% of the snaps and carried it six times. We know Los Angeles is going to use multiple backs, making Jackson, who was active for the first time since Week 1, a must-add off waivers. Kelley has now lost a fumble in consecutive games, for what it’s worth.
Chris Godwin didn’t play Sunday with his injury, but Justin Watson returned, playing 74% of the snaps, while lining up in the slot nearly 57% of the time. He and Mike Evans both ran 39 routes in this game, though Evans did leave in the first quarter with a minor ankle injury.
If Keenan Allen is on your fantasy team, you really, really hope Justin Herbert remains the Chargers quarterback. Allen saw 48% of the team targets Sunday, giving him a massive 40% target share during Herbert’s three starts this season. He’s seen double-digit targets in all three outings and if Herbert is under center the rest of the way, Allen could return to the top-12 status we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
Scott Miller saw a healthy seven targets in this game, while finding the end zone. He has been the deep threat in this offense alongside Evans, averaging 13.7 yards before the catch per reception, the ninth-highest mark in the league. Tom Brady, meanwhile, has not had issues throwing the deep ball through four games, ranking fourth in deep passing attempts (24) and fourth in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes (66.7%). The Buccaneers play Thursday night, putting Godwin’s status in serious doubt. With two teams on bye, Miller makes for a very viable replacement.
Los Angeles Rams 17, New York Giants 9
Twitter was in an uproar over the Rams running back usage Sunday. Darrell Henderson emerged as the lead back in Weeks 2 and 3, out-touching Malcolm Brown 35-18 during that span. However, for whatever reason, the Rams went back to Brown, giving him more snaps (35) and touches (14) than Henderson. If the Rams didn’t heavily rely on Henderson after consecutive great games, how can we trust this backfield going forward? And to add to the madness, Cam Akers (ribs) is expected to be back this week.
Meanwhile, Devonta Freeman could be emerging as the Giants’ lead back. He led the backfield with 37 snaps, touching the ball 15 times for over 60 yards. Dion Lewis has hardly seen the field since Week 3 and only carried the ball once in this game. If Freeman was forgotten about, he is definitely worth a look off waivers.
Without Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, the Giants passing offense remains pretty concentrated. Evan Engram’s targets have been strong through four weeks but he saw a season-high 10 targets in this game, while only Zach Ertz has run more pass routes among tight ends (159). Meanwhile, Darius Slayton has seen at least six targets in every game this season and now gets to face the Cowboys, who have allowed four different receivers to reach the 100-yard mark this year.
Buffalo Bills 30, Las Vegas Raiders 23
There isn’t too much to break down from this game. The Bills offense continues to look unbelievable, while Devin Singletary once again dominated the playing time and workload with Zack Moss out again. He even scored a three-yard rushing touchdown.
Meanwhile, my biggest takeaway from the Raiders is that Josh Jacobs, despite Las Vegas playing from behind in the fourth quarter, still logged 50 of the 74 offensive snaps (67.5%) and ran 21 pass routes. In 2019, Jacobs averaged 11.3 pass routes per game, a number that has jumped up to 17.2 here in 2020. He’s also on pace for just over 50 receptions.
Indianapolis Colts 19, Chicago Bears 11
In his first game without Tarik Cohen, David Montgomery played 85% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. There was a possibility that Matt Nagy would give Cordarrelle Patterson more carries, but he really wasn’t a factor, playing just 18% of the snaps, while carrying the ball 13 times. Montgomery was also used a fair amount in the passing game, seeing a career-high six targets, while running 35 pass routes, also a career-high. Montgomery appears to be an every-down back going forward.
The Colts running back usage was frustrating. Jonathan Taylor led the unit with 33 snaps, but Nyheim Hines was right behind him with 25. Jordan Wilkins also logged 17% of the snaps, carrying the football nine times for 15 yards. Taylor did see 17 carries, but his workload hasn’t been as exciting since Week 2. Indianapolis is calling run 50.3% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in football, so Taylor should get plenty of carries. But it would be nice to see him get on the better side of 20.
Keep an eye on Darnell Mooney, who played more than Anthony Miller again Sunday while seeing a healthy nine targets. Outside of Allen Robinson and his 27% target share, the Bears don’t have great options at wide receiver and Mooney continues to get plenty of opportunities.
Philadelphia Eagles 25, San Francisco 49ers 20
As is tradition, the Eagles receivers were hurt this past week, resulting in another cast of unlikely candidates at wideout. Without Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia operated out of 12 personnel (two tight ends) just 26% of the time, a number that was around 60% a season ago. Zach Ertz is running more routes than any tight end in football so better days are ahead, though his 4.8 yards per target from Sunday definitely leave a bad taste in your mouth.
We’ll see if the Eagles get either Alshon Jeffery or DeSean Jackson back this week. If they don’t, you likely aren’t starting any of these wide receivers in seasonal leagues but they could make for viable GPP punts in DFS.
With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman still out for the 49ers, Jerick McKinnon remained the lead back. He outsnapped Jeffery Wilson 67-6 in this game; over the last two weeks, McKinnon is playing 76.5% of the offensive snaps. During that same span, he also ranks fourth among running backs in targets (12), second in routes run (63) and 15th in carries (28). Suddenly, McKinnon is a solid RB2/flex until the 49ers backfield returns to full strength.
In his first game back from injury, George Kittle was absolutely dominant, hauling in all 15 of his targets for 183 yards and a touchdown. He also played nearly every snap for the 49ers, while running a route on nearly 85% of dropbacks. Even with San Francisco’s pass-catchers finally healthy, Kittle remains the engine of this offense.
Greg Ward led the Eagles with seven targets and has been fairly productive whenever he’s gotten the opportunity. If DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery can’t return, Ward will warrant some deep league flex consideration.
Red-zone usage
For the 49ers, McKinnon handled all the short-yardage work because, well, he played almost every snap. Meanwhile, Kittle immediately saw two end-zone targets in his return, converting one for a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs 26, New England Patriots 10
The main takeaway from this game is the Patriots backfield. James White returned to the lineup Monday night, while Sony Michel was placed on injured reserve, putting him out of action for at least the next three weeks. Meanwhile, Damien Harris made his 2020 debut and immediately took on the Michel role, carrying the ball 17 times for 100 yards, while failing to see a target. He played 23-of-75 snaps and in games where the Patriots are either playing with a lead or are competitive, Harris is looking at 13-17 carries per game until Michel is back. He’ll give you nothing in the passing game, but Harris is someone that needs to be picked up off waivers in every league.
Green Bay Packers 30, Atlanta Falcons 16
Not a ton from this game either. Julio Jones aggravated his hamstring injury in the first half and did not return, putting his Week 5 status in question. Calvin Ridley failed to record a single fantasy point in a shocking turn of events, while it was actually Olamide Zaccheaus who led the receivers with 53 snaps. Todd Gurley, meanwhile, logged 54% of the snaps and while he once again didn’t look very explosive, he did find the end zone twice here. He remains the goal-line back in this offense, seeing three carries from inside the 5-yard line Monday night.
The Packers gave Aaron Jones 20 touches in this game and per usual, he produced, eclipsing 100 total yards and scoring a receiving touchdown. With a bye week on the horizon, it looked like Green Bay limited his snaps, however, as he hardly played in the second quarter, ultimately finishing with 52% of the snaps, while Jamaal Williams logged 57 percent. And how about Robert Tonyan? The athletic tight end took advantage of the injuries to the Green Bay receivers, hauling in all six of his targets for 98 yards and three scores. He out-snapped Jace Sternberger 42-14, though it is worth noting that Mercedes Lewis didn’t play in this game. Still, Tonyan is now tied for the league-lead with five touchdown catches and warrants your attention.
