Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 18 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 18 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Lions (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 5th, +2 vs. consensus (7th)
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Deshaun Watson, Browns at Steelers (33 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 11th, +2 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Efficiency: Deshaun Watson has thrown just 5 touchdowns but has 7.87 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.87-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Jarrett Stidham, Raiders vs. Chiefs (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 14th, +2 vs. consensus (16th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Kenny Pickett, Steelers vs. Browns (33 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Kenny Pickett has thrown just 6 touchdowns but has 14.53 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second highest 8.53-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 12th, -4 vs. consensus (8th)
– Volume: The Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Dak Prescott and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead.
– Venue: Prescott has averaged 2.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Brock Purdy, 49ers vs. Cardinals (60 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 13th, -1 vs. consensus (12th)
– Efficiency: Brock Purdy has thrown 10 touchdowns but has just 5.77 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh highest 4.23-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Sam Darnold, Panthers at Saints (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Mac Jones, Patriots at Bills (30 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 20th, -1 vs. consensus (19th)
– Venue: Mac Jones has averaged 3.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Tyler Huntley, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -2 vs. consensus (20th)
– Volume: The Ravens are locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest Tyler Huntley and other starters.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.12 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Tom Brady, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: The Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Tom Brady and other starters.
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 24 touchdowns but has 32.22 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third highest 8.22-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Daniel Jones, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: Unranked
– Volume: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Daniel Jones and other starters.
Week 18 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs at Raiders (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Isiah Pacheco has just 4 touchdowns but has 5.54 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.54-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons vs. Bucs (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 17th, +2 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Allgeier for 20.7 carries + targets this week, sixth at his position (he has averaged 14.3 carries + targets since Cordarrelle Patterson came off injured reserve in Week 9 but has seen a workload bump to 22.0 carries + targets since the Falcons were eliminated from the playoffs before Week 16).
+ Efficiency: Allgeier has just 4 touchdowns but has 5.94 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.94-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bucs have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Jamaal Williams, Lions at Packers (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 19th, +6 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Packers have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, tied for ninth most in football.
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. Lions (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 20th, +6 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.49 per game in 2022, second most in football.
David Montgomery, Bears vs. Vikings (37 degrees with a 55% chance of rain or snow)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +1 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Brian Robinson, Commanders vs. Cowboys (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Efficiency: Brian Robinson has just 3 touchdowns but has 5.89 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.89-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.34 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Zack Moss, Colts vs. Texans (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 24th, +3 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Efficiency: Zack Moss has not scored a touchdown but has 1.80 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.80-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Texans have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Zonovan Knight, Jets at Dolphins (78 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 34th, +2 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Efficiency: Zonovan Knight has just 1 touchdown but has 2.19 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.19-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Khalil Herbert, Bears vs. Vikings (37 degrees with a 55% chance of rain or snow)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 37th, +4 vs. consensus (41st)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Vikings have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 40th, +25 vs. consensus (65th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Ke’Shawn Vaughn for 17.9 carries + targets this week, tied for 14th at his position (the Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White and other starters).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Alexander Mattison, Vikings at Bears (37 degrees with a 55% chance of rain or snow)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 41st, +4 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Vikings’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.61 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Gary Brightwell, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 42nd, +20 vs. consensus (62nd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Gary Brightwell for 15.8 carries + targets this week, 24th at his position (the Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Saquon Barkley and other starters).
Justice Hill, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 47th, +34 vs. consensus (81st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Justice Hill for 13.3 carries + targets this week, 30th at his position (the Ravens are locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and other starters).
Miles Sanders, Eagles vs. Giants (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 25th, -10 vs. consensus (15th)
– Volume: I am projecting Miles Sanders for 13.2 carries + targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (the Eagles will clinch the No. 1 seed if they beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Sanders and other starters if they build a big lead).
Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 28th, -10 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: I am projecting Ezekiel Elliott for 14.8 carries + targets this week, 28th at his position (the Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Elliott and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead).
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 29th, -7 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Tony Pollard for 12.4 carries + targets this week, 36th at his position (the Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Pollard and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead).
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins vs. Jets (78 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 31st, -1 vs. consensus (30th)
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Devin Singletary, Bills vs. Patriots (30 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -1 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Rachaad White, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 49th, -14 vs. consensus (35th)
– Volume: I am projecting Rachaad White for 8.1 carries + targets this week, 52nd at his position (the Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Fournette and other starters).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 50th, -22 vs. consensus (28th)
– Volume: I am projecting J.K. Dobbins for 2.5 carries + targets this week, tied for 72nd at his position (the Ravens are locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest Dobbins and other starters).
Joshua Kelley, Chargers at Broncos (49 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 53rd, -1 vs. consensus (52nd)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Leonard Fournette, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 57th, -20 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: I am projecting Leonard Fournette for 4.6 carries + targets this week, 62nd at his position (the Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Fournette and other starters).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Gus Edwards, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 58th, -14 vs. consensus (44th)
– Volume: I am projecting Gus Edwards for 1.9 carries + targets this week, 77th at his position (the Ravens are locked into the No. 5 of 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest Edwards and other starters).
Saquon Barkley, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: Unranked
– Volume: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Saquon Barkley and other starters.
Week 18 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs at Raiders (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 17th, +3 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Christian Watson, Packers vs. Lions (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 18th, +5 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Allen Lazard, Packers vs. Lions (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Efficiency: Allen Lazard has caught just 5 touchdowns but has 6.10 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Michael Pittman, Colts vs. Texans (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Pittman for 8.9 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 9.1 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The Texans have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Drake London, Falcons vs. Bucs (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Drake London for 8.1 targets this week, tied for 14th at his position (he has averaged 9.3 targets since Desmond Ridder became the starter in Week 15).
+ Efficiency: London has caught just 4 touchdowns but has 5.73 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.73-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Zay Jones, Jaguars vs. Titans (56 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 27th, +1 vs. consensus (28th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 7.4 targets this week, 23rd at his position (he has averaged 7.7 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots at Bills (30 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +2 vs. consensus (34th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Jakobi Meyers for 7.9 targets this week, 19th at his position (he has averaged 6.8 targets in 2022).
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Steelers (33 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 35h, +4 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.77 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.77-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings at Bears (37 degrees with a 55% chance of rain or snow)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 37th, +6 vs. consensus (43rd)
+ Efficiency: Adam Thielen has caught just 5 touchdowns but has 6.14 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.14-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Vikings’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Greg Dortch, Cardinals at 49ers (60 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 41st, +19 vs. consensus (60th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Greg Dortch for 8.3 targets this week, 13th at his position (he has averaged 9.0 targets in six healthy games with Rondale Moore out).
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
DJ Moore, Panthers at Saints (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 20th, -1 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders vs. Cowboys (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -1 vs. consensus (21st)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 28th, -23 vs. consensus (5th)
– Volume: I am projecting CeeDee Lamb for 5.7 targets this week, tied for 36h at his position (the Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Lamb and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead).
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks vs. Rams (46 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 30th, -1 vs. consensus (29th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Marquise Brown, Cardinals at 49ers (60 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -2 vs. consensus (31st)
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Jahan Dotson, Commanders vs. Cowboys (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 38th, -1 vs. consensus (37th)
– Efficiency: Jahan Dotson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 3.40 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 3.40-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
DJ Chark, Lions at Packers (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 39th, -1 vs. consensus (38th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Brandin Cooks, Texans at Colts (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 42nd, -1 vs. consensus (41st)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Curtis Samuel, Commanders vs. Cowboys (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 45th, -1 vs. consensus (44th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Van Jefferson, Rams at Seahawks (46 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 48th, -1 vs. consensus (47th)
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Rams’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Parris Campbell, Colts vs. Texans (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 51st, -2 vs. consensus (49th)
– Opponent: The Texans have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.22 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Joshua Palmer, Chargers at Broncos (49 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 52nd, -1 vs. consensus (51st)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Chris Godwin, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 55th, -22 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Chris Godwin for 3.6 targets this week, tied for 76th at his position (the Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Evans and other starters).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Mike Evans, Bucs at Falcons (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 56th, -21 vs. consensus (35th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mike Evans for 2.4 targets this week, tied for 94th at his position (the Bucs are locked into the No. 4 seed and may choose to rest Evans and other starters).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Michael Gallup, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 58th, -12 vs. consensus (46th)
– Volume: I am projecting Michael Gallup for 3.0 targets this week, 85th at his position (the Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Gallup and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead).
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 77th, -11 vs. consensus (66th)
– Volume: I am projecting Demarcus Robinson for 2.3 targets this week, tied for 98th at his position (the Ravens are locked into the No. 5 or 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest Robinson and other starters).
Isaiah Hodgins, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: Unranked
– Volume: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Isaiah Hodgins and other starters.
Darius Slayton, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: Unranked
– Volume: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Darius Slayton and other starters.
Richie James, Giants at Eagles (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: Unranked
– Volume: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed and may choose to rest Richie James and other starters.
Week 18 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
David Njoku, Browns at Steelers (33 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 7th, +3 vs. consensus (10th)
+ Efficiency: David Njoku has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.74 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.74-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Darren Waller, Raiders vs. Chiefs (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 8th, +4 vs. consensus (12th)
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.33 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Vikings (37 degrees with a 55% chance of rain or snow)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 10th, +3 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cole Kmet for 7.3 targets this week, third at his position (he has averaged 3.9 targets with Justin Fields at quarterback in 2022 but should see more targets with more passing skew with Nathan Peterman at quarterback).
– Volume: Cold temperatures and a 55% chance of rain or snow will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Kmet has caught 6 touchdowns but has just 2.34 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 3.66-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Tyler Higbee, Rams at Seahawks (46 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 11th, +3 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tyler Higbee for 6.5 targets this week, tied for seventh at his position (he has averaged 6.3 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Higbee has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 5.04 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 2.04-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have allowed 14.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 60% chance of rain will likely skew the Rams’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Gerald Everett, Chargers at Broncos (49 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 13th, +2 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Efficiency: Gerald Everett has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 4.39 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.39-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Broncos have allowed 11.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, seventh most in football.
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets at Dolphins (78 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 14th, +3 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have allowed 12.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third most in football.
Trey McBride, Cardinals at 49ers (60 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 18th, +2 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Trey McBride for 5.6 targets this week, ninth at his position (he has averaged 6.3 targets since Week 14 and should continue to see heavier volume with DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore out).
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 8.1 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, seventh fewest in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, seventh most in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers vs. Lions (25 degrees and clear)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 20th, +2 vs. consensus (22nd)
+ Opponent: The Lions have allowed 11.6 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, second most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Packers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Logan Thomas, Commanders vs. Cowboys (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +4 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Logan Thomas for 5.3 targets this week, 12th at his position (he has averaged 5.2 targets since Week 11).
+ Efficiency: Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.95 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 1.95-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have allowed 6.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third fewest in football.
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Giants (45 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 12th, -5 vs. consensus (7th)
– Volume: I am projecting Dallas Goedert for 4.5 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (the Eagles will clinch the No. 1 seed if they beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Goedert and other starters if they build a big lead).
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys at Commanders (45 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 19th, -13 vs. consensus (6th)
– Volume: I am projecting Dalton Schultz for 3.6 targets this week, tied for 27th at his position (the Cowboys will be locked into the No. 5 seed if the Eagles beat the unmotivated Giants and may choose to pull Schultz and other starters if the Eagles build a big lead).
– Opponent: The Commanders have allowed 7.4 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for fourth fewest in football.
Mark Andrews, Ravens at Bengals (37 degrees and cloudy)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -19 vs. consensus (4th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mark Andrews for 1.6 targets this week, tied for 52nd at his position (the Ravens are locked into the No. 5 of 6 seed — assuming the league does not reschedule last week’s Bengals-Bills game — and may choose to rest Andrews and other starters).
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.12 per game in 2022, tied for eighth most in football.
Jordan Akins, Texans at Colts (Dome)
Week 18 Positional Ranking: 25th, -1 vs. consensus (24th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, tied for fifth most in football.
