Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 18 in fantasy football is a mess, for lack of a better word. A bunch of teams are resting players, including the Ravens, 49ers, Browns, Chiefs, Browns, and Rams. There are also plenty of injuries to deal with, and we still have multiple playoff spots on the line.
Let’s take a look at the Saturday injury update (the original Monday injury report is at bottom).
Week 18 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens
We certainly shouldn’t expect Zay Flowers to play. The Ravens have already ruled out Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham for rest so Nelson Agholor and Devin Duvernay are likely in line to be the lead options in the receiving room for quarterback Tyler Huntley.
Noah Brown, WR, Houston Texans
The Texans face the Colts Saturday to help decide the AFC South and playoff spots, but they’ll be without receiver Noah Brown. He’s already been ruled out, and Tank Dell has been out for weeks, which would normally mean a larger role for Robert Woods along with Nico Collins. However, Woods hasn’t practiced this week and is listed as questionable. If he can’t go either, John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson will fill in the Nos. 2 and 3 receiver roles. Neither player has exceeded 160 yards receiving yet, so they would be a fairly big mystery bag and are best left for DFS.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions
The second-year receiver has been playing more and getting more involved in the offense, but Jameson Williams will miss the final game of the regular season. Detroit is reportedly going to play their starters, so that should mean Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond will slide into larger roles, but it won’t be anything of massive volume. Reynolds would likely need to score to feel like he was worth playing in any format.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
It’s not a huge surprise since the Bengals are out of the playoff mix, but Tee Higgins is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury. It’s been a nightmare season for Higgins, and he could have an interesting summer since he needs a new contract. Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon aren’t on the injury report, so the expectation is they’ll play, but who knows how much in a meaningless game.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian Kirk, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
All three of these players are listed as questionable with different injuries, but since the Jaguars still have a shot to make the playoffs, I’d lean toward everyone will be active. Christian Kirk is likely the most difficult player to tell because he’s been on the IR for the past four weeks, but he did log some practice this week. His status will have huge ramifications in the DFS world Sunday because both FanDuel and DraftKings priced him as he wouldn’t be playing this week. Trevor Lawrence missed Week 17 but feels like he’s in a better position to play in Week 18, and the same can be said for Zay Jones. Everyone has practiced in some capacity this week and having the whole receiving room available could be a big bonus for Calvin Ridley, who already has one monster game against the Titans under his belt this season.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Will Levis is not expected to play this week, so that means Ryan Tannehill will have one more week at the helm. Tannehill has seven games with at least 24 attempts and he’s exceeded 13.7 fantasy points once while being under 10 points four times. We can’t in good faith recommend him in any format.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
The Saints can still make the playoffs, but they may need to try and do so without Alvin Kamara. He only managed 33% of the snaps last week and hasn’t practiced this week, which likely means a healthy dose of Jamaal Williams. He handled 23 touches on nearly 60% of the snaps against Tampa although KenDre Miller could be active this week. Even still, it would be hard to project Miller walking into a sizable role since he has all of 28 carries and nine receptions all year.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice and Patrick Mahomes have already been ruled out due to a hamstring injury and rest, respectively. Travis Kelce is not listed on the injury report, but I can’t fathom him playing much, if at all, and Isiah Pacheco is likely in the same boat. I also suspect that Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be a candidate to not play much either since Jerick McKinnon is already on IR. The Chiefs only have Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire as trustworthy options in this backfield.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs may have played his final game as a Raider, although the team could franchise tag him or give him an extension in the offseason. For Week 18, that just means Zamir White will once again have the reins — he’s totaled 20, 22 and 25 touches in the past three weeks. He’s a strong option no matter what format you play this week.
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
AJ Dillon is out, and that just means Aaron Jones will continue to have plenty of touches, as he has the past couple of weeks. The receiver room is impossible to deal with right now because everyone is questionable. We don’t have the information we need because Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are all coming into Saturday listed as questionable. Until we know who is active and who isn’t, we can’t know how to prioritize.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith has already been ruled out for Week 18, and this is a tough spot to gauge for the Eagles. They’re going to be playing at the same time as the Dallas Cowboys and if Dallas is beating Washington handily, we could see Philadelphia wave the white flag and pull their starters. In the meantime, Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones should be the main trio in the passing game. We just don’t know if they’ll be that trio for the entire game or not.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
This is the biggest game of the year for the Dolphins, but both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle missed Week 17 so there has to be a level of concern here. Last week, De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson split the snaps almost right down the middle, but the touches were 18 for Achane and 6 for Wilson, so there’s no question about who’s the lead option. The only two receivers who played more than 43% of the snaps last week were Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson, and Wilson had the target lead behind Hill, but that was only four targets. Every other receiver was at two or fewer, although the Dolphins did get trounced against the Ravens.
Original Injury Run
We’re down to just one week of regular season football left, and there are still seeding and playoff berths to play for, at least for most teams. The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens have both locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC and AFC, respectively. Let’s talk about all the injuries that happened in Week 17 and how they could impact Week 18.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s a good thing the 49ers have the one seed locked up because Christian McCaffrey wasn’t able to finish the game against the Commanders. The 49ers classified the issue as a calf injury, and everyone (including McCaffrey) downplayed it after the game. Still, it would be foolhardy to predict McCaffrey having his normal workload in a meaningless game. In his stead, Elijah Mitchell handled 17 carries in the second half with a touchdown, so he will likely be a very popular option in DFS this week if McCaffrey sits out.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia had injury added to insult after a bad loss to a poor Arizona Cardinals team on Sunday. DeVonta Smith left the game late and was seen on crutches and in a walking boot after the game, which can’t be the best sign. This happened very late in the game since Smith played 88% of the snaps, and it’s a little tough to tell exactly who would step up between Julio Jones and Olamide Zaccheaus, as both played under 30% of the snaps. The best guess is Zaccheaus would lead in snaps between the 20s, but Jones did have two touchdowns on Sunday and could still be a viable red-zone threat if Smith misses Week 18, or even further. The latest report is it’s just a mild ankle sprain, but that contradicts the crutches and walking boot in most cases.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
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The Saints got a big win in Tampa Bay, but it came at a cost since Alvin Kamara twisted his ankle and was forced out of the game. Kamara only played 33% of the snaps and handled just 12 touches before Jamaal Williams relieved him. Williams was extremely inefficient on the ground with just 58 yards and 19 carries, but he also added four receptions. If Kamara misses this upcoming week, Williams would seem to be in line for at least 15 touches and would likely have a role in the red zone as well.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
This injury is difficult to get a good grip on because the Dolphins were getting smoked on the scoreboard, so there’s a good chance Tua Tagovailoa’s injury is mild. The Dolphins termed it as a left shoulder injury, which is obviously a concern since it’s his throwing shoulder. However, the Dolphins have a massive game this week against the Buffalo Bills that can determine the No. 2 seed and the AFC East winner. It would be very surprising if Tagovailoa didn’t play on Sunday night.
Noah Brown, WR, Houston Texans
The Houston receiver room just can’t seem to catch a break. Noah Brown left the game after just seven snaps and gave way to John Metchie and Robert Woods to play over 60% of the snaps each. Those numbers may have been inflated a bit because Nico Collins was under 65% himself, so there was a three-man rotation for the most part. Woods was targeted four times and Metchie only saw three, so even if Brown misses Week 18, the secondary options behind Collins are better served as DFS plays.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Will Levis has been dealing with a different injury every week it seems, and he was hurt on a sack this week. After taking a big hit, Levis didn’t return, so Ryan Tannehill had to finish out the game. It’s clear that the Titans want Levis to start and get experience, but that may not happen in Week 18.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
The rookie receiver for the Green Bay Packers has been a massive find and helped them get a critical win within the division on the road on Sunday night. Jayden Reed scored twice before the half but was unable to finish the game, as he’s been dealing with a chest injury. In his stead, Bo Melton was the player who stepped up the most with a career-high nine targets, and he produced in a major way. We’ll have to see what the receiver room looks like as the week goes on because Christian Watson said his goal is to play in Week 18, and they could get Dontayvion Wicks back as well. If Reed is active, the Packers will have a fully healthy receiving room for the first time in weeks.
