Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
A year ago at this time, I attempted to name the five teams most likely to improve in overall fantasy performance in 2023. I went 4-for-5, hitting on the Rams, Ravens, Cowboys and (barely) the Titans but missing on the Buccaneers.
Pop quiz: What was the most important part of the preceding paragraph?
Answer: The phrase “at this time.”
That is the most important part of the paragraph because everything that follows in this space is agnostic to the moves the given teams make this coming offseason. The moves matter, changes in scheme matter, career progression matters, but what matters the most is simple regression.
Performance can swing 5% in a direction and keep that momentum going. But if it swings 20%? It’s going to swing back. Maybe not every single time, but often enough that you can bet on it happening every time and be right more often than you’re wrong.
Take the Indianapolis Colts. From 2013 to 2014 the Colts saw their fantasy scoring (PPR points, only QB-RB-WR-TE) rise 21.5%. Then it dropped 23.5% in 2015. It rose 18.5% in 2016, dropped 28.4% in 2017, rose 53.6% in 2018, fell 23.6% in 2019.
You get the idea. Big swings almost inevitably are followed up by dramatic swings back. From 2006 to 2021, 22 teams saw their year-over-year fantasy point total drop by at least 20%. Of those 22, 18 (81.8%) bounced back in the opposite direction the next year. On the other side, 60 teams climbed by at least 20% (ever-increasing scoring makes big jumps easier than big declines), and 44 (73.3%) fell the third year. Offseason machinations do matter, but you can’t outrun math.
Below, I’ll update the chart from last year to better illustrate this, featuring 512 team-seasons from 2006 to 2021 (to give us three-year chunks of data):
| Year 1-2 change | # of teams | Average change, Year 1-2 |
Average change, Year 2-3 |
| up 30% or more | 17 | +39.1% | -6.8% |
| up 20-30% | 43 | +24.2% | -6.5% |
| up 10-20% | 72 | +14.7% | -2.9% |
| up 0-10% | 137 | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| down 0-10% | 148 | -5.0% | +3.7% |
| down 10-20% | 68 | -13.8% | +6.9% |
| down 20-30% | 22 | -24.0% | +17.3% |
| down 30% or more | 5 | -34.7% | +25.3% |
So with that in mind, today we’re looking at the five teams most likely to improve in fantasy scoring in 2024. Not based on what they’ll do in free agency or the draft, not based on a coaching or scheme change. Just based on math. (Friday, we’ll look at the teams most likely to decline.)
5 Teams Set to Improve in Fantasy in 2023
As mentioned at the top, the five teams in this space last year were, in order, the Rams, Buccaneers, Titans, Ravens and Cowboys. That went 4-for-5 in all. Collectively, they went from a drop of 20.8% in fantasy scoring from 2021 to 2022 to an increase of 9.1% from 2022 to 2023. If you built a fantasy team entirely of pieces from these offenses … well, the Titans probably sat the bench a lot, but overall you probably did extremely well.
(Reminder: All fantasy scoring is PPR, and offensive players only.)
1. Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5%)
2022 fantasy points: 1,849.5
2023 fantasy points: 1,489.6
What Went Wrong
Well, it was the most famous going-wrong-ness of the 2023 season, but just in case you were on a darkness retreat … the Chiefs receivers tried their best to drag the team down last season, with Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and (later in the season) Mecole Hardman producing some very highlight-worthy-in-the-wrong-way plays. Rashee Rice coming on strong by the end helped, but the receivers’ ineptitude, combined with the start of some age concerns for Travis Kelce, held the team back.
Why They Might Improve
Sure, they won the Super Bowl. That can paper over a lot of ills. But the Chiefs could have beaten the 49ers 49-0 earlier this month and they’d still be all but certain to add some receiving (and offensive line) help this offseason. The weaponry will improve. That’s as close to a guarantee as it gets.
2. Las Vegas Raiders (-15.0%)
2022 fantasy points: 1,460.7
2023 fantasy points: 1,240.9
What Went Wrong
Derek Carr’s performance had dipped enough by the end of 2022 that he was benched late in the season for Jarrett Stidham … but the team would surely have taken that over the output of Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell (and, for one start in Week 7, Brian Hoyer) last year. Only five teams (the Steelers, Patriots, Titans, Panthers and Jets) had fewer fantasy points from the QB position than the Raiders, and the Raiders were the only one of that group paying a quarterback eight figures on a free agent contract. Add in some injuries and regression from Josh Jacobs, and the offense was kind of a mess in Las Vegas.
Why They Might Improve
Assuming the Raiders turn the page at quarterback, whoever they turn to should offer a higher floor and a higher ceiling than O’Connell did as a rookie, when he averaged barely 200 passing yard a game (201.6) and had an 83.9 passer rating. And either Jacobs comes back healthy or the Raiders turn the backfield over to Zamir White, who averaged almost 100 yards a game over the last month with Jacobs out. (If O’Connell is the start again, you’re instead just banking on growth from someone who was thrust into starting as a fourth-round rookie).
3. New York Jets (-14.1%)
2022 fantasy points: 1,270.3
2023 fantasy points: 1,091.1
What Went Wrong
The Jets finally got a quarterback! And then they lost him four snaps into the season, with Aaron Rodgers tearing his Achilles almost as early as he realistically could have. The Jets hadn’t done much of anything to address the backup position, so they cycled through Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian as the starter, and … it did not go well (combined 11 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, with Wilson’s 77.2 passer rating comfortably the best of the group). Also, the offseason additions to the offense, like Dalvin Cook, Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb, were universally huge disappointments. A huge comeback season from Breece Hall couldn’t come close to offsetting all that.
Why They Might Improve
It starts and ends with Rodgers being healthy and anything like his former MVP self. Somewhere in between that start and end is better performance from an abysmal offensive line and more pass-catching weapons, but really, it’s just “Is Rodgers healthy and can he play well?”
4. New York Giants (-13.7%)
2022 fantasy points: 1,354.5
2023 fantasy points: 1,169.5
What Went Wrong
In their first year under Brian Daboll in 2022, the Giants seemingly turned things around, going 9-6-1, winning a Wild Card and even eking out a playoff victory. Hopes were high after the team tagged Saquon Barkley and extended Saquon Barkley. That did not last long. Jones was bad (2 TDs against 6 INTs) before tearing his ACL in his sixth game. Barkley missed three games and put up under 4.0 yards per carry. Offseason additions like Darren Waller, Jalin Hyatt and Parris Campbell were some combination of hurt and ineffective. (This section would be shorter if it were “What went right,” because it would just be “Darius Slayton.”)
Why They Might Improve
This one’s actually a little tough. Jones should be back healthy, and for all his failings, he’s better than Tommy DeVito. Barkley could easily move on in free agency, and the team doesn’t have any clear succession plan in place. Waller being healthy would help, but then he turns 32 in September and has missed multiple games in each of the last three seasons. The best help here is probably currently outside the organization.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (-11.0%)
2022 fantasy points: 1,628.2
2023 fantasy points: 1,449.0
What Went Wrong
Everything? Justin Herbert missed four games. Keenan Allen did too. Mike Williams missed 14. Austin Ekeler missed three and saw huge dropoff in performance when he was active. The only relevant offensive player to play all 17 games was first-round rookie Quentin Johnston, who … did not look like a first-round rookie, putting up only 431 yards and 2 scores despite everyone in front of him disappearing.
Why They Might Improve
You want to say “health,” but then this is the Chargers, and they have thus far failed to break the gypsy curse in that regard. So instead, let’s point to some other factors. Jim Harbaugh replacing Brandon Staley as head coach has to be one of the biggest head-coaching upgrades in a while. The team has the fifth pick in the draft, which either means a high-profile rookie or a trade down for a wealth of resources. Ultimately though, this will come down to whether Herbert can perform like he did in his first two seasons.
