Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are a ton of injuries to monitor ahead of Friday’s 10-game NBA DFS slate, so if you won’t be able to be around your computer prior to lock, it is probably best to sit this one out. It is going to be madness but let’s try to make some sense of it all.
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Pelicans @ 76ers preview
PHI -9, total: 227
New Orleans will be without Brandon Ingram in this game, as the talented scorer has been ruled out with an ankle sprain. In his absence, look for Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball to dominate usage for the Pelicans. Williamson is sporting a strong 33.3% usage rate with Ingram off the floor this season, while averaging 1.41 fantasy points per minute in the split. Ball, meanwhile, is sporting a near 26% usage rate to go along with 1.32 fantasy points per minute. And for the first time in forever, I’m actually OK with using Eric Bledsoe at $4,900 on DraftKings, as his usage rate climbs by nearly 2% with Ingram off the floor. And the 76ers are coughing up the seventh-most points per game to opposing shooting guards on the season (23.5). Meanwhile, Naji Marshall, who had already been logging around 23-25 minutes a night, could enter the starting lineup and flirt with 30 minutes, putting him in play at $4,100 on DK. However, James Johnson could get very similar playing time and is $800 cheaper. Finally, Steven Adams is doubtful to play, which should make Willy Hernangomez a solid option. With Adams and Ingram off the court this season, Hernangomez is averaging over a fantasy point per minute, while sporting a 39% rebounding rate. In six starts this season, Hernangomez is averaging 10.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals per game.
For the 76ers, blowouts have hurt the chances of players hitting their ceiling. Ben Simmons played just 25 minutes last game but at $7,400 on DK, he is intriguing, especially in this spot. The Pelicans are allowing 1.20 points per possession in transition this season, good for the third-most in the NBA, as well as the third-worst field goal percentage (56.7%). Simmons, meanwhile, is sporting a 28.3% frequency rate in transition on the year, good for the fifth-highest rate in basketball, while averaging nearly five points per game off the play type. New Orleans also ranks 25th against dimers and 24th against crafty finishers, per our advanced DvP tool. If the Pelicans can keep this game close, I think both Simmons and Tobias Harris ($7,000) can have very strong games, while Joel Embiid is always in play. I also don’t mind taking a shot on Seth Curry at $4,400, as he’ll play 33-35 minutes in a close game, while New Orleans is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (5.2).
Celtics @ Bulls preview
BOS -4, total: 222
After missing Wednesday’s game with an ankle injury, Jaylen Brown has been ruled out once again for Friday’s contest. In their last game, the Celtics kept Evan Fournier in the lineup, who has been turning a corner as of late, scoring 30-plus fantasy points in three of his last five games. He remains viable with Brown out, but I still prefer getting to Kemba Walker or Jayson Tatum, who are both sporting usage rates north of 30% with Brown off the floor this season. This is a good matchup for Walker, facing a Chicago team that ranks 23rd against primary ball handlers and 26th against scorers this season. The Bulls are also allowing the most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (22.5), while Walker is averaging 8.3 points per game off the play type, good for the 11th-most in the NBA. Meanwhile, Tatum is expensive but he’s worth that tag with Brown out, as his usage rate climbs to just over 35%.
Zach LaVine finally returned to the Bulls lineup Thursday. It was his first game since April 14, so we’ll see if he rests on the second leg of a back-to-back, though Chicago needs every game to stay in the playoff hunt. With LaVine back and other high-end plays around him in price, Nikola Vucevic certainly isn’t a priority option on this slate, while LaVine’s return also hurts Coby White, who had been a much more consistent fantasy producer in the 11 games the All-Star guard was out of the lineup.
Magic @ Hornets preview
CHA -7, total: 217.5
LaMelo Ball is coming off a poor game Thursday night, but I am willing to go right back to him Friday, especially if Devonte' Graham remains sidelined. He’s still been posting great advanced numbers since returning from injury, as his usage rate is around 28%, while both his assist and rebounding rates are over the 20% mark. I feel a lot safer about Ball at $8,200 on DK than Terry Rozier at $8,000, though Rozier still does have upside at that price tag because of his ability to get hot from the field. Charlotte is also going to remain without Miles Bridges, who has entered the league’s safety protocols and will miss the next 10-14 days. With Bridges out over the last two games, Jalen McDaniels has started both contests, logging 39 and 32 minutes.
For the Magic, Mo Bamba is showing the team why they selected him sixth overall a few years back. He is coming off consecutive monster games and over his last four outings, Bamba is now averaging 15.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, 1.3 assists and 1.0 steals. And during that same span, Bamba is also averaging 20.0 rebounding chances per game, good for the fourth-most in the league. Finally, over the last week, he is averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute while sporting a 23% usage rate and whopping 43% rebounding rate. Now he gets a matchup with a Hornets team that is surrendering the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year (16.49). However, he is really the only player from Orlando that is on my radar here.
Timberwolves @ Heat preview
MIA -6, total: 225
Jimmy Butler was a late scratch Tuesday with an illness and is questionable for Friday. If he sits out, Andre Iguodala would likely draw another start, while a lot of the offense would run through Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn, especially if Tyler Herro also remains out. With Butler and Herro off the floor this season, Dragic’s usage rate is flirting with 28%, while Adebayo’s is at 26% to go along with a 19% assist rate and 30% rebounding rate. He is also averaging 1.36 fantasy points per minute in the split and gets a good matchup with a Minnesota team that ranks 28th against scorers, 28th against primary ball handlers and 27th against dimers on the season. Duncan Robinson would also remain viable at $5,100 on DK, as Minnesota is allowing the most points per possession to spot-up shooters this season (1.13).
For Minnesota, both D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards showcased their ceiling last game. Edwards has been pretty good as of late and continues to take plenty of shots, averaging 20.2 shot attempts per game over his last five outings. $7,900 is a pretty steep price to play, especially if Butler is active on the other side of this game and if choosing between the two, I still prefer Russell, who finally returned to the starting lineup last game, logging 37 minutes.
Rockets @ Bucks preview
MIL -16.5, total: 232
The Bucks were without Khris Middleton (knee) Wednesday, and as huge home favorites against the Rockets, it is very possible that Milwaukee sits him out again. If that happens, perhaps there is a chance this game can stay closer, though it seems very unlikely. Still, in this matchup, Giannis Antetokounmpo could go for 60-plus fantasy points in 28 minutes, as Houston is surrendering a league-worst 24.1 transition points per game this season. That bodes extremely well for Giannis, who leads the NBA in transition scoring, averaging 8.4 points per contest. He is also averaging 1.74 fantasy points per minute with Middleton off the floor this season. Jrue Holiday, meanwhile, is sporting a 27% usage rate and 21% assist rate with Middleton off the court, while averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute. If Holiday and Giannis can play close to their normal minutes, they could both go crazy in this game. Milwaukee could also be without PJ Tucker in this game, who is questionable with a jaw injury. He started last game with Middleton out and his absence could lead to more minutes from someone like Bryn Forbes, who is $3,400 on DK.
Houston, meanwhile, is in trouble. Kevin Porter has already been ruled out, while 12 other players are on the injury report, which means it is actually entirely possible that the Rockets won’t have enough players to play this game. Christian Wood sat out Wednesday with an ankle injury — if he sits and Kelly Olynyk is active, there is definitely plenty to like there. If this game is good to go, Armani Brooks, DaQuan Jeffries and Anthony Lamb could all become viable value options with Houston so depleted.
Cavaliers @ Mavericks preview
DAL -10, total: 219
Dallas is coming off the front end of a back-to-back against Brooklyn and will now host a Cavaliers team that has been giving up a ton of points as of late. Kristaps Porzingis didn’t play Thursday and is listed as doubtful for Friday’s matchup. Dallas has been starting Willie Cauley-Stein and Tim Hardaway in Porzingis’ absence, and we’ve seen Hardaway become a lot more trustworthy in fantasy as of late. With KP off the court this season, Hardaway’s usage rate climbs by around 2%, while averaging around 25 real points per game over his last five contests. Of course, you know exactly what you are going to get from Luka Doncic, while Dwight Powell could be worth a look at just $3,700 on DK. Despite WCS starting, Powell has been playing more minutes and has been more productive.
Meanwhile, I really have no interest in the Cavaliers. Collin Sexton should continue to dominate the usage if Darius Garland remains out but $8,700 on DK is a bit too expensive for me, especially against a Dallas team that has been pretty good against point guards over the course of the season. If I had to choose one member from this team it would probably be Cedi Osman, who has been starting and playing huge minutes in Garland’s absence.
Nuggets @ Jazz preview
UTA -4, total: 216
Once again, no Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley for the Jazz. This will be Conley’s sixth straight absence; during that span, Joe Ingles leads Utah in touches per game, averaging 75 per contest. He has at least seven assists in four of his last five games and is sporting a 21% assist rate with both Mitchell and Conley off the court over the course of the season. Jordan Clarkson, meanwhile, is coming off a 30-point outing in just 25 minutes, shooting 12-of-16 from the field. We know he has a huge ceiling with both guards sidelined, though Ingles likely has the safer floor given his facilitating and peripherals. Rudy Gobert still has upside at his elevated $9,000 price tag, while no team is allowing a higher field goal percentage at the rim this season than Denver (67.8%). That obviously bodes well for Gobert, as 88% of his field goal attempts have come from that part of the floor this season, while his 10.5 paint touches per game are tied for the third-most in the NBA.
With PJ Dozier out last game, Denver went with a larger starting five consisting of Facundo Campazzo, Michael Porte, Aaron Gordon, Paul Milsap and Nikola Jokic. We’ll see if they run the same starting unit out on Friday, which could make Gordon and Millsap interesting, especially if this game stays closer than their last game did. Jokic is still as strong of a fantasy option as ever, while Porter’s usage has been through the roof since the team lost point guard Jamal Murray. Finally, Austin Rivers is still viable at $3,700 on DK with Murray, Dozier, Monte Morris and Will Barton all still sidelined.
Lakers @ Trail Blazers preview
POR -8, total: 221.5
Anthony Davis left Thursday’s game with back spasms and did not return, putting his status for Friday in serious jeopardy. With the Lakers already missing LeBron James and Dennis Schroder, Davis’ absence would loom large. If he sits, Andre Drummond would make sense as a play, as long as he can stay out of foul trouble, while Montrezl Harrell would see a large bump. With James, Schroder and Davis all off the floor this season, Harrell is sporting a solid 25.7% usage rate and 29% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute in the split. Kyle Kuzma, who is coming off a huge game, would also be a viable option at $5,600, as he is also posting a rebounding rate north of 20% in the split, while his usage rate is hovering around the 24% mark. We have also seen Alex Caruso log strong minutes as of late, seeing 26, 28 and 29 minutes over the last three games.
Portland, meanwhile, is pretty easy for me on this slate. Both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are fine plays at their price tags, especially Lillard, who has now recorded at least 50 fantasy points in four straight games. Jusuf Nurkic has been very efficient as of late, which isn’t new for him, averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute with a 40% rebounding rate over the last week. His minutes have been down as of late due to blowouts but if the Lakers can keep this game close, Nurkic could see 27-29 minutes, which is enough to consider him at his $7,000 price tag.
Spurs @ Kings preview
SAS -4.5, total: 225
We’ll see if De'Aaron Fox can return for the Kings, though it seems unlikely. And with Tyrese Haliburton out, Sacramento has relied on Buddy Hield a lot more as of late, as the peripherals have been much higher over the last two games. During that span, Hield has recorded 19 rebounds and 12 assists, while averaging 75 touches per game. Meanwhile, during that same stretch, Delon Wright is averaging a strong 86 touches and 7.0 minutes of possession per game, scoring 55 fantasy points in both contests. If Fox remains sidelined tonight, Wright remains a strong play and is probably the preferred option over Hield, who is $1,200 more here. I also like taking a shot on Richaun Holmes at just $6,600, who is back to playing 30-plus minutes, doing so in three of his last four games. Marvin Bagley is also worth a look, especially if Harrison Barnes remains out. He has been starting over the last few games and remains a very high-usage player.
The Spurs are coming off a rough game against the Jazz, but I have no issues going right back to their top two players in this spot. Dejounte Murray is priced up at $7,800 but this is such a good matchup, as the Kings rank 30th against dimers, 30th against primary ball handlers and 29th against crafty finishers this season. They are also surrendering the fourth-most points per game off isolation on the year (7.8), which bodes well for DeMar DeRozan, whose 3.7 isolation points per game are good for the 12th-most in all of basketball. Rookie Devin Vassell could also open up some value at $3,400, as he’s logged solid minutes as of late, benefiting from Derrick White’s absence.
Knicks @ Suns preview
PHO -7, total: 217
This isn’t the most exciting game for fantasy purposes, as it features two of the slowest-paced teams in basketball, as well as two teams that play defense as well as anyone in the league. Still, I think Chris Paul is too cheap at $7,600. The guy is a legitimate MVP candidate this season and despite the matchup, this is a very intriguing price tag. While Devin Booker has been strong as of late, I’d rather take the savings and play Paul in this matchup. Meanwhile, if Cameron Johnson is ruled out, Torrey Craig could flirt with 30 minutes with Jae Crowder already ruled out. Craig is just $3,500 on DK.
For New York, no one stands out as core plays on this slate. Julius Randle will continue to provide a nice combination of floor and ceiling and is priced accordingly but there are other spots I like more Friday. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose has been playing around 27-30 minutes consistently, making it easier to trust a point guard from this team. However, he is now $6,000 on DK and in a tougher matchup.
