Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We push forward with a 10-game NBA DFS slate Wednesday evening. Per usual, there are a ton of injuries to sort through, with players who can drastically change the entire slate depending on their status.
Let’s get after it.
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Magic @ Cavaliers preview
CLE -1.5, total: 210
Collin Sexton (concussion) will remain out for the Cavaliers, making it his third consecutive absence. In the last two games with Sexton inactive, Darius Garland is averaging a gaudy 93.5 touches per game, while also averaging 7.6 minutes of possession per game during that stretch. For the season, Garland is sporting a healthy 26.7% usage rate and 21% assist rate with Sexton off the floor this season, while averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute in the split. He’s the obvious main beneficiary with Sexton out, but Cedi Osman is back in the starting lineup and has logged 37 and 38 minutes over the past two games. And the minutes aren’t going anywhere with the Cavaliers shutting down Larry Nance for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, both Kevin Love and Jarrett Allen are perfectly fine plays at their price tags, especially against an Orlando team that is bottom-five in defensive efficiency over the last month of action.
For Orlando, Terrence Ross (back) remains doubtful, while Otto Porter won’t return either. I do like Cole Anthony more at this price range ($6,300 on DK), as he’s provided a very strong floor as of late, scoring at least 34 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Over the last two weeks, Anthony is sporting a 22% usage rate and 22% assist rate, while averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute. And over his last 10 games, Anthony is averaging 6.11 seconds per touch, good for the second-most in all of basketball during that stretch. With Ross out, you can also take a chance on Gary Harris at $4,200, who has played 32 and 35 minutes over the last two games, while attempting a strong 26 shots during that span.
Hawks @ 76ers preview
PHI -8, total: 217
Don’t look now, but the 76ers are off the injury report Wednesday. Ben Simmons returned from his illness over the weekend against the Thunder, scoring 30.7 fantasy points in the blowout victory. Tobias Harris is also healthy, and both players are very interesting options at their price tags, especially against an Atlanta team that is surrendering the sixth-most points per possession in transition this season (1.17). Meanwhile, Simmons is averaging 4.5 transition points per game on the year (12th-most), while Harris is right behind him at 4.2 per contest. Simmons is also sporting the league’s seventh-highest frequency rate in transition (28.0%). Of course, you can always play Joel Embiid, who is as dominant as any player in the NBA.
Atlanta, however, remains banged up. Not only is Trae Young still out, but the Hawks are also likely to be without Kevin Huerter, who is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Already without both Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter, the Hawks will need to see more minutes from both Danilo Gallinari and Solomon Hill. Lou Williams also gets a bump, especially with Brandon Goodwin also questionable. Sheesh. All three are firmly in play here, especially Williams, who faces a 76ers defense that is coughing up the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards on the season (23.96). Of course, Bogdan Bogdanovic will continue to handle the ball a ton, making him a relatively high-floor option until Young returns to action. John Collins, meanwhile, has been underwhelming as of late, despite sporting a usage rate of 29.2% with Young and Huerter off the floor this season. I still, however, believe there is a ceiling for him at $7,300, especially if Clint Capela struggles with Joel Embiid on the other side, who is generating a foul on 21% of his shot attempts this season, one of the highest clips in basketball. At $8,900 in this matchup, Capela definitely isn’t my favorite center option on the slate.
Hornets @ Celtics preview
BOS -6, total: 215
Boston was without both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker Tuesday night, resulting in a huge game from Payton Prichard, who scored 28 points in 33 minutes off the bench. Walker will remain out Wednesday, making Prichard interesting, despite Boston still having Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier, who both started. Tatum could return to action Wednesday, but if he doesn’t, feel free to go right back to Jaylen Brown, who is sporting a usage rate north of 37% with both Walker and Tatum off the floor this season. He also went off for 39 points and 11 rebounds in 38 minutes Tuesday and offers plenty of upside at $8,500 whether Tatum suits up or not. Meanwhile, Smart and Fournier are solid options with Walker out and we tend to see the opposition produce from three against the Hornets, as 39.9% of the points scored against Charlotte this season have come from beyond the arc, good for the second-highest rate in the NBA. Meanwhile, Brown is averaging the fifth-most spot-up points per game this season (6.1), while Charlotte is surrendering the most points per game to spot-up shooters on the year (36.6).
The Hornets are coming off the front end of a back-to-back where they ran an eight-man rotation. We love tight rotations in fantasy, though I’d be pretty surprised if we saw it again Wednesday. Terry Rozier is coming off an awful game, scoring just eight points and shooting 4-of-17 from the field. Devonte' Graham, meanwhile, is coming off consecutive strong games and presents a solid value at $6,100 on DK. He is still sporting a 24% usage rate and 20% assist rate with both LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward off the floor this season, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute in the split. Miles Bridges is also locked into massive minutes right now, logging 38-plus in any close game since Charlotte became decimated by injuries.
Lakers @ Wizards preview
LAL -1.5, total: 228
Anthony Davis has been back for three games now and during that stretch, the All-NBA power forward is sporting a massive 33.5% usage rate and 24% rebounding rate. Unsurprisingly, the Lakers are playing through their star player, as Davis is also averaging 9.7 post-ups per game during that span. After being limited in his first game back, Davis has now played 28 and 31 minutes over the last two games, attempting 34 shots during that stretch. Facing a Wizards team that leads the league in pace of play, Davis has plenty of upside, especially with the Lakers still missing LeBron James. I also like Dennis Schroder at $6,900 on DK, who is still averaging the second-most touches per game in basketball in the three games since Davis returned (102.0). Washington, meanwhile, ranks 27th against dimers, 28th against primary ball handlers and 25th against crafty finishers, according to our advanced DVP tool.
For the Wizards, just feel free to continue to play Russell Westbrook, who has now recorded 12 triple-doubles in April and 18 of his last 23 games dating back to the middle of March. Over the last 15 games, no player in the league is averaging more touches per game than Westbrook (102.9), while also ranking inside the top-10 in rebounding chances per game during that span (18.1). And over the last two weeks, Westbrook is sporting an insane 34% rebounding rate and 31% assist rate, while also posting a near 30% usage rate, too. Bradley Beal, meanwhile, is coming off a 45-point game and is still a perfectly strong play at $10,000 on DK. The rest of this team is very unappealing for fantasy, though $5,300 for Rui Hachimura, who is back in the lineup, is a very nice price tag. He normally logs massive minutes for Washington.
Bulls @ Knicks preview
NYK -4, total: 208.5
Are we finally starting to see a trustworthy fantasy option from this New York backcourt? Derrick Rose, though still coming off the bench, has logged 30, 33 and 33 minutes over the last three games, scoring 31, 38 and 37.5 fantasy points during that stretch. At $5,400, Rose only needs 30-33 minutes in this matchup to smash, as the Bulls are allowing the most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (22.6). Chicago also ranks 27th against primary ball handlers, 28th against scorers and 26th against crafty finishers this season. Meanwhile, RJ Barrett continues to play huge minutes, but I still view him as more of a floor play for fantasy. And of course, Julius Randle has the massive combination of floor and ceiling, while he still leads the NBA in minutes per game (37.5). There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Bulls are allowing the fifth-most points per possession (1.01) off post-ups this season, while Randle is averaging 4.0 post-up points per game on the year, good for the fourth-most in the league.
Zach LaVine will remain out for Chicago, which should once again allow Coby White to play 35-plus minutes, I do, however, prefer Rose on the other side of this game for $900 less, especially considering the matchup is much more favorable. Still, White is posting a 25% usage rate and averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with LaVine off the floor this season. Of course, Nikola Vucevic will continue to dominate the usage, sporting a usage rate north of 28% with LaVine off the floor since joining the Bulls, while also posting a 33% rebounding rate. And during the last six games with LaVine sidelined, Vucevic is averaging a whopping 14.5 post-up points per game, easily the most in the NBA.
Spurs @ Heat preview
MIA -4.5, total: 213
Both backcourts are dealing with injuries in this game. For Miami, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro are questionable, while the team remains without Victor Oladipo. Both Nunn and Herro were sidelined in Miami’s last game, resulting in Goran Dragic entering the starting lineup and logging 35 minutes. If Nunn and Herro can’t return Wednesday, Dragic makes a ton of sense as a mid-range play this evening, as he’s averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute with both players off the court this season. We are also seeing Trevor Ariza play huge minutes as of late, logging at least 30 minutes in each of his last seven games. Of course, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to offer very strong combinations of floor and ceiling and are always in play.
For the Spurs, Derrick White will be sidelined with an ankle injury. His absence should solidify the minutes of Dejounte Murray, while Lonnie Walker and Patty Mills should see more playing time in this game. After White left San Antonio’s last game, Mills logged 32 minutes and scored 21 fantasy points. We have seen spot-up shooters thrive against Miami this season, as the Heat are allowing the second-most spot-up points per game on the year (34.7). This also bodes well for Keldon Johnson, who is averaging the 16th-most spot-up points per game this season (5.3). I love his potential at just $5,200 on DK. Murray, meanwhile, is coming off a huge game, scoring over 60 fantasy points and with White off the court this season, his usage, rebounding and assist rates all see increases. Finally, DeMar DeRozan isn’t a bad play, but I prefer a handful of other players from this game over him, as well as other plays from other games that are priced right around DeRozan.
Trail Blazers @ Grizzlies preview
MEM -1.5, total: 239.5
These teams just met the other night, and there was plenty to like for fantasy. Ja Morant has been playing very well lately, averaging 48.6 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. He has been scoring the ball with ease as of late and there is certainly nothing wrong with this matchup, as Portland ranks 29th against dimers, 29th against primary ball handlers, 30th against scorers and 28th against crafty finishers on the year. Meanwhile, Jonas Valanciunas only logged 23 minutes last game, while playing just four minutes in the final quarter after Denver ran away with the game. Assuming this game stays close, things should be better for JoVal against a Portland team that is allowing the seventh-most post-up points per game in basketball (5.6). Finally, if Jaren Jackson can stay out of foul trouble, he has upside at $6,300, even if he only plays around 25 minutes. In three games since returning from injury, Jackson is sporting a 30.8% usage rate and 28% rebounding rate.
Portland is coming off the front end of a back-to-back where they saw an outlier game from Anfernee Simons, who hit his first nine three-point attempts, scoring 27 points. Of course, that doesn’t seem likely to be repeated and unless Damian Lillard or CJ McCollum sit, Simons shouldn’t be on your radar. Speaking of Lillard, he’s been a bit underwhelming as of late, scoring less than 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Still, I believe both Lillard and McCollum are viable options, facing a Memphis team that is allowing the 10th-worst field goal percentage off hand offs this season (42.6%). Meanwhile, both Lillard and McCollum are averaging 2.3 points per game off handoffs this season, good for the eighth-most in the NBA. Jusuf Nurkic has been playing more minutes as of late, logging 29 minutes in each of Portland’s last three close games. In those contests, he’s scored 28, 60 and 54 fantasy points. We do have to see if he sits out on the second end of a back-to-back and if he does, Enes Kanter becomes more interesting, as he is sporting a 45% rebounding rate with Nurkic off the floor this season.
Pelicans @ Nuggets preview
DEN -3.5, total: 229.5
Zion Williamson is coming off a down game, but I love this as a bounceback spot for him. He is still sporting a usage rate north of 30% over the last two weeks, while the Pelicans continue to use him more and more as both a ball handler and roll man out of the pick and roll. This is a good matchup for a player like Williamson, who is averaging a league-leading 4.9 points per game off cuts this season. Meanwhile, Denver is allowing the highest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket this season (68.5%), meaning they won’t have a chance to defend Zion at the rim here. I also think Lonzo Ball is too cheap at $6,500 on DK, especially after coming off a near triple-double (18 points, 7 assists, 9 rebounds). With Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Josh Hart still sidelined, Ball will continue to play huge minutes. Meanwhile, Steven Adams is questionable with a toe injury that kept him out of Monday’s game. We saw Willy Hernangomez start at center in that game and he produced, recording a double-double (12 points, 10 rebounds) in 31 minutes. With Adams off the court this season, Hernangomez is sporting a 40% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.10 fantasy points per minute in the split.
For Denver, continue to play Nikola Jokic and enjoy the fantasy points. I truly don’t think I need to add anything else. However, Michael Porter Jr. has quietly been playing some terrific basketball as of late, averaging 27 real points and 42 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. He is averaging nearly 1.20 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and has seen an uptick in usage with Jamal Murray and Will Barton out of the lineup. Meanwhile, with Monte Morris also out again, Denver’s backcourt will remain short-handed, putting Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo and P.J. Dozier in play, though I’d rank them in that exact order due to price.
Jazz @ Kings preview
UTA -8.5, total: 222.5
With Donovan Mitchell already out, the Jazz will also be missing Mike Conley (hamstring) for this game. This opens up a huge door for both Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles, especially in a matchup this juicy. With both Conley and Mitchell off the floor this season, Clarkson is sporting a 30.7% usage rate, while Ingles’ assist rate climbs to 20%. Both players are also averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute in the split. Sacramento is one of the best matchups in all of fantasy, especially for Clarkson, as they rank 29th against scorers, 30th against dimers and 30th against primary ball handlers. We will also likely see Clarkson isolate quite a bit here, which bodes well, as the Kings are coughing up the third-most isolation points per game this season (8.0). Finally, you know that Rudy Gobert is a strong play here, especially if the Jazz play through him more in the post with Conley out, which is something they don’t always do when at full strength. The Kings are allowing 7.1 points per game off putbacks this season, while Gobert is averaging 3.0 putback points per game on the year, good for the sixth-most in the league.
Already without De'Aaron Fox, the Kings could be missing Harrison Barnes here as well, after he left Monday’s game with adductor tightness. He is questionable to play in this game, while Marvin Bagley is also questionable after missing the last 20 games. If Barnes sits out, Moe Harkless will continue to play 32-35 minutes and present some value at $3,800 on DK, while Terence Davis would likely get some more run. With both Fox and Barnes off the court this season, Tyrese Haliburton is sporting a 24.2% usage rate and 23% assist rate, while averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute. Utah has quietly been pretty bad at defending opposing pick and roll ball handles this season, meanwhile.
Clippers @ Suns preview
PHX -4, total: 222
Kawhi Leonard has missed the last four games with a foot injury and is listed as doubtful to return Wednesday. During that four-game span, Paul George is sporting a massive 34.9% usage rate and although he picked up an ankle injury in Monday’s game, he is not listed on the injury report ahead of this game. The Suns are allowing the most isolation points per game this season (8.9), while George is averaging 3.7 points per game off isolation this season, tied for the 11th-most in basketball. With Leonard still out, I also think you can look to both Terance Mann and Marcus Morris, though I definitely prefer the savings with Mann at $4,900, despite Morris being the higher-upside player for fantasy.
For the Suns, no one really stands out as an elite play here. Both Chris Paul and Devin Booker are perfectly fine plays at their price tags but not priority options on this slate. Cam Johnson has been starting as of late with Jae Crowder nursing an ankle injury and although he came off the bench in their last game, Johnson has still logged 30 or more minutes in each of the last four games.
