Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We start the week off with a nine-game NBA slate with plenty of moving parts. Join me as we break it all down and see what stands out from a fantasy perspective.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker, the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
76ers @ Mavericks preview
PHI -2.5, total: 219
The 76ers were without Tobias Harris in their last game with a sore knee, but he is not on the injury report ahead of Monday’s game against Dallas. That means that Philadelphia is at full strength and the price tags on Harris and Ben Simmons are definitely intriguing, as Simmons is $8,200 on DraftKings while Harris is under $8,000. Simmons is in a bit of a slump right now, failing to score 40 fantasy points in any of his last 10 games, which is shocking because he’s normally such a high-floor player. Dallas has actually been pretty strong at defending point guards this season and with Simmons’ recent play, he definitely isn’t a top-tier play on this slate. And if choosing between him and Harris, I’d go with the latter. Of course, Joel Embiid remains the top option from this team. In four games since returning from his knee injury, Embiid is sporting a massive 37.2% usage rate, while also averaging a league-leading 14.7 post-ups per game during that stretch. Dallas, meanwhile, can be had in the post, surrendering the third-worst field goal percentage (53.3%) and seventh-most points per game (5.7) to the post on the year.
For Dallas, Luka Doncic struggled the first time he met the 76ers but he is always in play. I also don’t hate Josh Richardson at just $4,600 against his former team, who are coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards on the season (24.40). Finally, I don’t love the $5,800 price tag on Dorian Finney-Smith, who rarely offers much of a ceiling in DFS, while a near $9,000 Kristaps Porzingis against Embiid isn’t exactly my favorite play of the slate either.
Lakers @ Knicks preview
NYK -2, total: 206
Andre Drummond has now put together consecutive strong outings for the Lakers, posting lines of 20-11 and 15-12-3. In that two-game stretch, Drummond is averaging a healthy 18.5 rebounding chances per game, converting 62.2% of those opportunities into rebounds. In a closer game, Drummond should log at least 27-30 minutes, which makes him an interesting option at just $6,800 on DK. A matchup with New York isn’t the best in the world, but it also isn’t the worst, as they are allowing the second-most blocks per game to opposing centers this season (3.03). Meanwhile, the Lakers have been without Kyle Kuzma for the last two games, as he’s been nursing a calf injury. He is questionable to play again and if he remains out, Markieff Morris and Talen Horton-Tucker would see a boost as well as Wesley Matthews, if he is active. Dennis Schroder was ejected after 20 minutes in the last game, though he scored 28 fantasy points in those minutes. At $6,700 on DK, he’s a very safe option, especially since he is averaging the fourth-most touches per game in the league over the last 15 games (91.9).
Julius Randle continues to offer a very nice combination of floor and ceiling, as he still ranks inside the top-12 players in the league in both touches and rebounding chances per game on the year. For the season, Randle is sporting a 28.1% usage rate, 29% rebounding rate and 16% assist rate, all of which lead the team. Other than Randle, you could do worse for a value center than $4,000 Nerlens Noel, but his production has been middling while giving up a center spot can always be tough.
Spurs @ Magic preview
SAS -6.5, total: 219
In his two games since returning from injury, Cole Anthony has picked up right where he left off, possessing the ball for a while. During that two-game stretch, Anthony is averaging a healthy 6.85 seconds per touch, which is a high number but not totally outlandish, as he’s averaging 5.95 seconds per touch over the course of the season, good for the fifth-highest mark in the NBA. At $5,300 on DK, I think he’s a viable option from this game, especially if his shot finally starts to fall. Meanwhile, the Magic could remain without Otto Porter Jr. and Chuma Okeke for this game, which would open up more playing time for James Ennis and Dwayne Bacon, though both players aren’t exactly values.
For the Spurs, both DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray seem fairly priced, if anything. Murray continues to provide a very safe floor due to his peripherals while DeRozan has been a bit more up-and-down because both his shot attempts and rebounding totals have been inconsistent. Still, at $7,800 on DK, he’s a very viable option here. I also like taking a chance on Keldon Johnson at just $5,100. He’s had some huge outlier rebounding games so there is definitely a ceiling, especially at that price tag.
Nets @ Timberwolves preview
BKN -6.5, total: 235
Kyrie Irving has been ruled out for this game due to personal reasons and with James Harden still sidelined, that makes Kevin Durant an obviously enticing play here. He remained on a minutes limit in the last game, logging 24 minutes in a blowout loss. He attempted 17 shots in those minutes and if his restriction is lifted or the minutes come up, Durant will likely crush. With both Harden and Irving off the court this season, Durant is sporting a whopping 38.3% usage rate to go along with a 22% rebounding rate and 22% assist rate while averaging 1.68 fantasy points per minute in the split. This is obviously a terrific matchup, as the Timberwolves rank 28th against dimers, 28th against scorers, 25th against primary ball handlers, 25th against crafty finishers and 25th against superstars. They are also allowing the second-most points per possession off screens (1.14) as well as the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (46.8%). Durant, meanwhile, is averaging the ninth-most points per game off screens this season (2.3). Bruce Brown also becomes a viable option, as he’s quietly sporting a 26% rebounding rate with Irving and Harden off the floor while the minutes should be relatively high. Meanwhile, Joe Harris should get more shot attempts and is right behind Durant in points per game off screens this season (2.2). Finally, with LaMarcus Aldridge out with an illness, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will see more minutes, but I don’t feel particularly great about either player as fantasy options.
For Minnesota, Karl-Anthony Towns is on an absolute tear right now, scoring at least 53 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. $10,500 is a more than fair price tag for him tonight, especially against a Brooklyn team that is surrendering the most post-up points per game on the season (7.4). Towns, meanwhile, is averaging a healthy 4.5 post-up points per game this year, good for the fifth-most in all of basketball. The Nets also rank 30th against point forwards, 28th against stretch centers and 27th against rebounders, according to our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, this will be D'Angelo Russell’s first back-to-back since returning from injury, making it entirely possible that he rests here. If that is the case, you will feel much better about Anthony Edwards at $7,500 on DK, as he’s sporting a team-high 31.8% usage rate with both Russell and Malik Beasley off the floor this season while averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute in the split. And with Beasley out, Josh Okogie could be a decent punt play at $3,400, especially if Russell rests in this game.
Wizards @ Jazz preview
UTA -11, total: 234.5
The Utah backcourt is going to be short-handed for this game. With Jordan Clarkson already doubtful with an ankle injury, Mike Conley will now sit for injury management purposes. This makes this game a lot more interesting. Donovan Mitchell has been amazing over his last three games, scoring 42, 37 and 41 real points during that span. And with both Clarkson and Conley off the floor this season, Mitchell is sporting a healthy 35.4% usage rate while averaging an impressive 1.41 fantasy points per minute. This is a good spot, too, facing a Washington team that leads the NBA in pace while also allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll (21.3). Mitchell is already averaging the sixth-most points per game off the play type this season (10.7) but with Conley and Clarkson out, he will exclusively run the pick and roll. Joe Ingles also gets a significant bump, averaging a fantasy point per minute with both players off the court. We also see him often become a much larger facilitator whenever Conley is out, so look for the assists, especially in a pace-up spot like this. Meanwhile, any time Royce O'Neale can see more usage is good for his fantasy potential. The minutes should be in the low or mid-30s and at $4,200 on DK, he is worth a look. Finally, feel free to play Rudy Gobert against a Washington team that ranks 25th in the league against rebounders on the season.
Bradley Beal hasn’t been awful since returning from injury, but we haven’t seen that huge ceiling game just yet. Russell Westbrook continues to dominate the rebounds and assists and has now recorded eight triple-doubles over his last 10 games. I’d have a hard time not going to Westbrook right now, while Beal is now under $9,000 on DK, which makes him really interesting in tournaments. Outside of the two-star players, no one else on the Wizards really stands out to me tonight.
Kings @ Pelicans preview
NOP -2.5, total: 235
This is a very intriguing game for fantasy and there is a lot to like, starting with superstar Zion Williamson. Over the weekend, Zion went for 38-15-8 against the 76ers and 38-9-4 against the Cavaliers. He truly is a star, and this is an incredible spot for him, facing a fast-paced Kings team that is surrendering the sixth-most transition points per game (20.7) as well as a league-worst 1.24 points per possession off the play type. Williamson, meanwhile, is averaging around 4.5 transition points per game while shooting an insane 70% from the field off the play type. Meanwhile, as long as he is active, Brandon Ingram sets up very well here, facing a Sacramento team that is allowing the second-most isolation points per game on the year (8.1), while Ingram’s 2.8 isolation points per game are good for 20th in all of basketball. The Kings also rank 30th against primary ball handlers, 30th against scorers, 30th against crafty finishers and 26th against point forwards, per our advanced DVP. Keep an eye on Lonzo Ball’s status, too, as he’s been out the last two games with his ongoing hip injury.
For the Kings, I have no issue with De'Aaron Fox at $9,300, who has been hot as of late, scoring 43 or more fantasy points in each of his last four games. The Pelicans have had issues defending the rim this season, surrendering the fourth-highest field goal percentage from within four feet of the basket (66.5%). That bodes well for Fox, who is averaging 18.1 drives per game on the season, good for the sixth-most in basketball. For that same reason, I also like Richaun Holmes at $7,300, who continues to play very well for the Kings. Finally, both Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton remain very, very fairly priced on DraftKings.
Bulls @ Grizzlies preview
MEM -2.5, total: 228.5
Chicago used a fairly deep rotation on Sunday and Nikola Vucevic logged just 27 minutes. However, I am willing to go back to him here against a Memphis team that is surrendering a league-worst 1.13 points per possession to the post this season, as well as the highest field goal percentage off post-ups (59.1%). Vucevic, meanwhile, is averaging 5.6 post-up points per game since joining the Bulls, good for the third-most in basketball. Meanwhile, Zach LaVine has been fantastic as of late and is still worth a look at $8,700 on DK.
I love Jonas Valanciunas here at $7,300 against a vulnerable Bulls frontcourt. Coming off a huge 34-point, 22-rebound game, JoVal is still just $7,300 on DK despite averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season. Chicago, meanwhile, is coughing up a league-leading 11.3 points per game to the roll man out of the pick and roll this season while also ranking 29th against scorers, 29th against skilled centers and 23rd against rebounders on the year. You also have to like Ja Morant’s potential in this spot, especially at just $6,800 on DK. The Bulls are surrendering the most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers this season (23.6), while Morant is averaging a healthy 8.9 points per game off the play type this year, the ninth-most in the league.
Nuggets @ Warriors preview
DEN -4.5, total: 226
Nikola Jokic is red hot right now, averaging 21 points, 9.3 rebounds, 11.5 assists and 53.3 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. He’s also recorded a triple-double in consecutive games, yet is still just $10,400 on DraftKings. You know what to do. Meanwhile, we’ll see if Jamal Murray returns to the lineup, who has missed the last four games with a knee injury. During that span, Facundo Campazzo has benefited in terms of playing time and production and would be a viable option again if Murray sits. And while he has been a bit inconsistent as of late, $5,800 is a very nice price tag on Aaron Gordon, especially in a massive pace-up spot like this.
For the Warriors, Kelly Oubre has been ruled out with a wrist injury. We saw Kent Bazemore enter the starting lineup in Oubre’s absence against the Rockets, logging 32 minutes and scoring nearly 30 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry is always in play, scoring at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last six games. However, I do prefer Jokic at the same price tag. Draymond Green should also continue to offer a solid floor due to his peripherals, especially with James Wiseman sidelined. Golden State will likely play more small ball going forward, which should help Green’s rebounding potential.
Rockets @ Suns preview
PHX -12, total: 228.5
The Rockets aren’t really on my radar tonight. Phoenix is one of the best defensive units in basketball and no one is really priced at a point where I feel like they need to be considered. $7,900 Christian Wood is the one player that stands out, if any.
Meanwhile, I love Devin Booker here, facing a Houston defense that is coughing up a league-leading 24.2 transition points per game this season while opponents are getting out on the break at a league-high 18.6% clip against the Rockets this season. That bodes well for Booker, who is averaging 5.3 transition points per game on the year, good for the eighth-most in the league. Mikal Bridges, meanwhile, isn’t the highest usage player in the league, but he is sporting a healthy 26.3% frequency rate in transition this season, one of the highest marks in the league. Finally, Deandre Ayton has been much more consistent as of late, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in four straight games. He’ll look to make it five in a row against a Rockets team that is allowing the third-most post-up points per game on the year (6.6).
