WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
We have seven NBA games Thursday. Seven-game DFS slates are honestly the perfect size, as you have enough players to have a large enough player pool, but not enough to overwhelm you.
Let’s break down all seven games and see what stands out.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
76ers at Cavaliers preview
PHI -7.5, total: 214.5
Cleveland will once again likely be shorthanded in the frontcourt for this game. Both Larry Nance and Jarrett Allen have already been ruled out, while Kevin Love is once again questionable. In their last game, the Cavs started Dean Wade at power forward and Isaiah Hartenstein at center, resulting in arguably the worst starting frontcourt in NBA history. Hartenstein picked up two quick fouls and came out 30 seconds into the game, though he still went off for 35 fantasy points in 26 minutes. Hartenstein once again has to be viewed as an elite value play at $3,700, as he should dominate the glass. He saw 20.0 rebounding chances the other night and converted 70% of those opportunities into boards. Hartenstien is clearly no stranger to picking up fouls but with Joel Embiid still sidelined on the other side, you worry much less about that. Meanwhile, the guards are both solid but not spectacular options here. Collin Sexton is a lock for 35-plus minutes and 18-plus shot attempts seemingly every game and could easily get there off pure volume in this spot. And Sexton technically is the shooting guard on this team which could actually bode well for him against a 76ers team that is surrendering the third-most real points per game to opposing two guards on the year (24.51).
For the 76ers, you have to love both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris here, assuming the Cavaliers can keep this game close. That is a concern but with Embiid out, if the 76ers are going to blow this game wide open, you’d have to think Simmons and/or Harris will be the reason why. As we’ve discussed in this article all year long, Cleveland is a bad transition defense, coughing up the third-most points per game off the play type (21.3), while opponents are getting out in transition 17.3% of the time, good for the second-highest mark in basketball. Meanwhile, Simmons is averaging 4.8 points per game in transition this season, tied for the 11th-most in the NBA. Harris is right behind his teammate, averaging 4.4 such points per game, though Simmons is at his best when getting out on the break, and he does so a healthy 28.4% of the time, one of the highest rates in all of basketball. Mike Scott could be a value option here but he’s not as appealing as Hartenstein on the other side of this game. He has, however, logged 28, 29 and 24 minutes over the last three games.
Wizards at Pistons preview
WAS -3, total: 223
Bradley Beal, who has missed the last two games with a hip injury, is once again questionable to suit up. Of course, Russell Westbrook has been absolutely lighting up the stat sheet as of late, recording three straight monster triple-doubles. And with Beal out the last two games, Westbrook is averaging 108.0 touches per game, as well as 11.1 minutes of possession per game during that stretch. It’ll be very tough to get away from him here, especially if Beal sits again. With Beal off the court this season, Westbrook is sporting a massive 38.3% usage rate, 29% rebounding rate and 30% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.59 fantasy points per minute in the split. Meanwhile, Jerome Robinson got the start at shooting guard last game and was fairly productive, scoring 22.2 fantasy points in 36 minutes. If Beal is out again and Robinson is listed as the starter, he enters the value play discussion, for sure. Finally, Rui Hachimura has attempted 24 and 25 shots over the last two games and continues to play massive, massive minutes. $6,800 is a bit of a high price tag and I’d completely avoid him if Beal is in but if he’s out, that type of usage and minutes is tough to find.
Hamidou Diallo is coming off a very strong game, scoring 19 points and adding 10 rebounds, three assists and two blocks in 27 minutes. With the Pistons lacking talent, especially at the guard position, Diallo could continue to see plenty of usage for this team and we’ve seen his upside on a depleted team during his time in Oklahoma City. Jerami Grant, meanwhile, has been someone I’ve liked a lot this season but not as of late. His upside has fallen off a cliff and I don’t believe he is 100% healthy, honestly. Outside of Diallo, you could take a chance on Cory Joseph at $4,200 against a Wizards team that plays at one of the fastest paces in all of basketball. He should play 27-30 minutes and can get you 30-35 fantasy points in a matchup like this.
Hornets at Nets preview
BKN -3.5, total: 224
In the five games since LaMelo Ball suffered his season-ending injury, Terry Rozier is averaging a healthy 80.6 touches per game, good for the 13th in basketball during that span. And in that same stretch, Rozier is sporting a 26% usage rate and is averaging a strong 1.16 fantasy points per minute. He is definitely the upside play from this team, but I believe he and Devonte' Graham have similar floors, with Graham coming in $1,600 cheaper over on DraftKings. He’s sporting a solid 24.1% usage rate and 16% assist rate in the aforementioned five games and gets a solid matchup with a Brooklyn team that ranks 24th against opposing primary ball handlers, according to our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, Gordon Hayward is coming off a huge game and his peripherals are going to be much more consistent with Ball off the floor, as he gets a ton of rebounds and assists. That raises his floor/ceiling combination. Finally, P.J. Washington’s minutes have been all over the place and while his price has come down, he still is only a GPP option for me this evening.
For the Nets, we have to keep an eye on James Harden, who left Wednesday’s game with an apparent hamstring injury. He did not return and will likely be questionable for this game. If he’s ruled out, Kyrie Irving becomes one of the elite plays of the slate, as he’s sporting a 38% usage rate with both Harden and Kevin Durant off the floor this season, averaging a gaudy 1.70 fantasy points per minute in the split. Harden’s potential absence would lead to more shot attempts for Joe Harris, who can certainly get hot from beyond the arc. That makes him very intriguing in this spot, facing a Hornets team that is allowing a league-leasing 37.1 points per game to spot-up shooters on the season. Meanwhile, Harris is averaging 5.5 spot-up points per game this year, good for the 11th-most in the league, while shooting just over 49% off spot-ups. Bruce Brown would also get a pretty decent bump at $4,900 on DraftKings.
Warriors at Heat preview
MIA -2.5, total: 219.5
Stephen Curry returned from a five-game absence Monday, scoring 32 points while adding five rebounds and six assists. He posted a 37% usage rate in his first game back and when healthy, Curry remains one of the elite players in all of fantasy, putting him on the radar seemingly every single night. $9,600 is more than a fair price tag for a player of Curry’s caliber and the Heat are a team that will give it up from three, as 41% of the points scored against Miami have come from beyond the arc, the highest rate in the NBA this season. Meanwhile, Draymond Green has a solid floor at $7,000 due to his peripherals, but the overall ceiling is definitely lacking a bit because he doesn’t attempt many shots. With Curry back, Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre become less appealing fantasy options, though Oubre is still viable at his price tag, unlike Wiggins.
Miami is coming off the front end of a back-to-back and while recently acquired Victor Oladipo didn’t play, he is expected to make his Heat debut on Thursday. I doubt he plays a ton of minutes, but I’d bet he’s in that 20-25 range, which is enough to impact players like Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro. Both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain the key pieces of this team, with Adebayo being my favorite in this game. The Warriors can be had on the interior, while coughing up 7.5 points per game off putbacks this season, the most in all of basketball. Both Adebayo and Butler are very fairly priced ahead of this game and because Oladipo will make his debut, they are the only players from the Heat that are on my radar.
Magic at Pelicans preview
NOP -9, total: 217.5
Zion Williamson suffered a hand injury against the Celtics Monday and while initial reports suggested he could miss a few weeks, it is possible he doesn’t miss any time at all. He’s listed as questionable ahead of this game. If he is ultimately ruled out, multiple players would see a bump, especially since Williamson has really become the focal point of this New Orleans team over the last month or so. Brandon Ingram would have to do more heavy lifting if Zion sits, as he’s sporting a 31.3% usage rate with Williamson off the floor this season, while averaging a solid 1.24 fantasy points per minute. $7,800 is already an intriguing price tag for Ingram but if Williamson doesn’t play, he will be very difficult to ignore at that price. Meanwhile, someone like Josh Hart would see more minutes, which could easily lead to double-digit rebounds for one of the best rebounding wings in the league. He’s sporting a very strong 28% rebounding rate with Williamson off the floor this season and over his last five games, Hart is averaging over 11 rebounds per game. Then there is Lonzo Ball, who has missed the last five games with a hip injury. He is questionable for this game and if he is out again, Nickeil Alexander-Walker would remain a very strong option, while the upside would be enhanced if Williamson is also out. In eight games as a starter this season, Alexander-Walker is averaging 18.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 14.1 shot attempts per game.
The Magic are coming off a nice win against the Clippers the other night, but I still don’t really love anyone on this team for fantasy. Michael Carter-Williams would probably be the one I’d look to, as he’s going to continue playing 30-32 minutes and present strong peripherals. Terrence Ross is still a bit too expensive at $7,100 and the frontcourt is suddenly crowded with Khem Birch, Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter are all playing decent minutes.
Hawks at Spurs preview
ATL -1, total: 220.5
Atlanta will be without John Collins for this game after he suffered an ankle injury. While Trae Young is pretty much always a strong play, he actually sees a 5.8% bump in usage when Collins is off the floor, putting him at a massive 38.1% usage rate in the split. Of course, Collins’ absence will help solidify the minutes of Danilo Gallinari, especially if De'Andre Hunter once again sits out. Gallinari is sporting a solid 24% usage rate with Collins off the floor, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, Clint Capela remains a rock-solid option but does get a bump with Collins out. He’s sporting an insane 49% rebounding rate with Collins off the floor this season, while averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute. Capela also still leads the NBA in rebounding chances per game for the season (23.1) and has essentially been a walking double-double.
For the Spurs, I still like the price tag and potential of Dejounte Murray at $7,100 on DraftKings. He’s playing around 33 minutes each night and continues to provide plenty of peripherals, while his shot volume has quietly been very strong. In a friendly matchup like this, both Murray and DeMar DeRozan ($7,600) are a touch too cheap. DeRozan faces a Hawks team that is coughing up the fifth-most points per possession (0.99) and seventh-worst field goal percentage (43.2%) off isolation this season, while DeRozan is averaging 3.8 isolation points per game, tied for the 13th-most in all of basketball. Finally, I also don’t hate Keldon Johnson at $5,000, as we’ve seen his rebounding potential on this team. We just need his minutes to get back over that 30 mark and he could crush that price tag.
Nuggets at Clippers preview
DEN -2, total: 221
Paul George continues to nurse a foot injury and won’t be able to return to action here. He’s missed the last two games with the injury and during that span, the Clippers are unsurprisingly playing through Kawhi Leonard, but especially in the post, as he’s averaging 8.0 post-ups per game during that stretch. And with George off the floor this season, Leonard is posting a solid 32.3% usage rate, while also averaging nearly 1.40 fantasy points per minute. We’ve also seen Terance Mann get more run as of late and he’s been taking advantage of it, averaging just under 30 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. With George and Marcus Morris out again, the minutes should be there for Mann, as well as Luke Kennard, who has started each of the last two games, scoring 32 and 27 fantasy points in 32 and 33 minutes.
Once again, I still believe that both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are slightly underpriced this evening, making them strong options. Of course, you can always play Jokic, who has been the best player in fantasy this season and an easy MVP candidate. But with Aaron Gordon in the fold and playing around 25 minutes, it honestly takes me off the rest of the wings from this team.
