NBA DFS Preview - First Look (11/7)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have 7 games on tap on Sunday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for November 7th | NBA DFS First Look

Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks

NYK -7.5, total: 209.5

pace: CLE (22nd), NYK (T24th)

Situations to monitor:

Lauri Markkanen, Kevin Love, and Isaac Okoro remain out for the Cavs.

Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic

UTA -12.5, total: 212.5

pace: UTA (T16th), ORL (T18th)

Situations to monitor:

Cole Anthony is questionable for the Magic.
Rudy Gay is questionable for the Jazz.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards

MIL -3, total: 221.5

pace: MIL (T5th), WAS (T18th)

Situations to monitor:

Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Donte DiVincenzo remain out for the Bucks, while Grayson Allen is listed as questionable.

Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -1.5, total: 223

2021 pace: IND (13th), SAC (T5th)

Situations to monitor:

Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for the Pacers.

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder

SAS -4, total: 211

pace: SAS (2rd), OKC (T14th)

Situations to monitor:

Jakob Poeltl remains out for the Spurs.

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -13, total: 220

pace: HOU (2nd), GSW (T7th)

Situations to monitor:

Andre Iguodala has been ruled out for the Warriors.

Charlotte Hornets @ Los Angeles Clippers

LAC -5, total: 222.5

pace: CHA (4th), LAC (T7th)

Situations to monitor:

P.J. Washington has been ruled out for the Hornets, while Mason Plumlee is currently listed as probable.
Marcus Morris remains out for the Clippers.

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Sunday, November 7th.

Over his last three games, Jarrett Allen’s 25.0 rebounding chances per game are second in the NBA to only Rudy Gobert (26.0).

The absences of Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen have left the Cavs’ frontcourt incredibly thin, forcing Allen into big minutes. He’s averaged 37.7 minutes per game with double-doubles over his last three games. The double-doubles haven’t been your typical 12-point, 10-rebound ones, either. Over that span, he’s averaged 21.3 points and 16.0 rebounds per game, adding 3.0 steals/blocks for good measure. He should continue this dominance against the Knicks, making him an elite target at $7,100 on DraftKings.

Cole Anthony is averaging 85.7 touches per game, currently a top-10 mark in basketball.

Anthony, in the midst of a breakout season, finds himself as questionable for Sunday’s matchup with the Jazz. Should he miss the game, a massive amount of volume would open itself up for Jalen Suggs and R.J. Hampton, as there would be 85.7 touches and a 24% usage rate that would be up for grabs. Suggs is the preferred option between the two, already leading the team with a 26.0% usage rate.

The Charlotte Hornets rank 28th against rebounders, 29th against rim protectors, and 29th against skilled centers, per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.

The Hornets were just absolutely decimated by Richaun Holmes, who posted a 20-20 game a mere few days ago. On Sunday, it’ll be Ivica Zubac’s turn to have his way with this Hornets interior defense. With Marcus Morris out, Zubac has seen 30-plus minutes in two straight games, averaging 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 steals/blocks over that time. For only $4,800 on DraftKings, he’s an elite value option, especially with the understanding that Serge Ibaka will likely take a while to be eased back into the rotation.

Over the last two games with Jakob Poeltl out, Thaddeus Young has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute.

While Young has not and likely will not move into the starting lineup in Poeltl’s absence, he’s been the far more productive DFS asset between him and Drew Eubanks. His price has risen to nearly $6,000, but in a matchup against a soft Thunder team that is prone to turnovers, Young could have another nice outing in 25-30 minutes.

The Bucks rank bottom-10 in the NBA against rebounders so far this season, per aDvP.

The absence of Brook Lopez has left its mark, as the Bucks’ interior defense has struggled more than it typically does. While they aren’t typically a matchup to go out of your way to attack, there’s clearly a spot to exploit here. This is also a pace-up spot for the Wizards. Both Daniel Gafford and Montrezl Harrell are appealing tournament targets.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers. Jonas Valanciunas ranks second in the entire NBA in rebounding chances per game (23.1), rebounds per game (14.1) and has a contested rebounding rate of 46.5% (almost 10% higher than Rudy Gobert). If there’s a matchup that caters to 20-20 upside, this is the one for Valanciunas.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
Stephen Curry ($10,700)
Paul George ($10,400)
Julius Randle ($10,000)
Domantas Sabonis ($9,400)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300)
Paul George ($10,800)
Stephen Curry ($10,000)
Dejounte Murray ($9,500)
Julius Randle ($9,300)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Saturday’s slate was a chalky one, as the Sixers came in extremely thin, while LeBron James remained out for the Lakers. One of the chalky teams worked out, while the other was a total flop, as evident by the fact that not a single Lakers player was in either of the winning lineups.

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings’ $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first) last night.

PG: Shake Milton (36.75)
SG: Furkan Korkmaz (36.50)
SF: Jayson Tatum (57.25)
PF: Royce O’Neale (36.75)
C: Jusuf Nurkic (46.25)
G: Zach LaVine (47.25)
F: Frank Kaminsky (32.00)
UTIL: Devin Booker (58.00)

Total: 350.75

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $400k Clutch Shot ($100k to first) last night.

PG: Trae Young (46.9)
PG: Kyle Lowry (51.4)
SG: Dennis Schroder (32.8)
SG: Shake Milton (39.4)
SF: Jayson Tatum (53.2)
SF: DeMar DeRozan (41.8)
PF: Royce O’Neale (40.0)
PF: Frank Kaminsky (31.2)
C: Joel Embiid (52.5)

Total: 389.2

One game that stood out as one to avoid (due to pace and game environment) was the Utah Jazz and Miami Heat game, which naturally came in at lower ownership. Fast forward to the end of the slate and two of these pieces were found in winning lineups, as Royce O’Neale came out as one of the best dollar-for-dollar value pieces while Kyle Lowry smashed his low price on FanDuel. Jayson Tatum was the stud of choice in the winning lineup as well, as the Anthony Davis exit killed a large number of lineups, as did a disappointing outing from Russell Westbrook.