Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.
Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.
We have 11 games on Wednesday’s main slate, so let’s dive in.
Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.
NBA Vegas Data for January 5 | NBA DFS First Look
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -9.5, total: 227.5
Pace: DET (10th), CHA (1st)
Situations to monitor:
- Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Cory Joseph, Frank Jackson and Isaiah Stewart are out for the Pistons.
- P.J. Washington is questionable for the Hornets.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic
PHI -8, total: 210.5
Pace: PHI (29th), ORL (17th)
Situations to monitor:
- Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle and Paul Reed are out for the Sixers.
- Jalen Suggs, Markelle Fultz, Robin Lopez and Michael Carter-Williams are out for the Magic. Moritz Wagner and Cole Anthony are questionable for the Magic.
Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards
WAS -7, total: 224.5
Pace: HOU (4th), WAS (23rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Alperen Sengun and Armoni Brooks are out for the Rockets.
- Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell, Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant, Aaron Holiday, Brad Wanamaker and Tremont Waters are out for the Wizards.
San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics
BOS -7.5, total: 221.5
Pace: SAS (3rd), BOS (21st)
Situations to monitor:
- Lonnie Walker and Doug McDermott are out for the Spurs while Dejounte Murray is probable.
- Robert Williams, Romeo Langford and Jabari Parker are questionable for the Celtics.
Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers
BKN -7.5, total: 218.5
Pace: BKN (7th), IND (24th)
Situations to monitor:
- Joe Harris remains out for the Nets while LaMarcus Aldridge is listed as questionable.
- Caris LeVert, Chris Duarte, T.J. Warren, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. McConnell and Kelan Martin are out for the Pacers. Malcolm Brogdon and Torrey Craig are listed as questionable.
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
GSW -5.5, total: 211.5
Pace: GSW (13th), DAL (30th)
Situations to monitor:
- Klay Thompson and James Wiseman remain out for the Warriors while Andre Iguodala is listed as questionable.
- Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out for the Mavs while Trey Burke is listed as questionable.
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -8, total: 225.5
Pace: TOR (26th), MIL (9th)
Situations to monitor:
- Yuta Watanabe, Svi Mykhailiuk and D.J. Wilson are out for the Raptors.
- Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton are out for the Bucks. Jordan Nwora is listed as questionable.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves
MIN -8, total: 213.5
Pace: OKC (16th), MIN (6th)
Situations to monitor:
- Luguentz Dort and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are listed as out for the Thunder.
- Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell are listed as questionable for the Timberwolves.
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets
UTA -5.5, total: 222.0
Pace: UTA (12th), DEN (25th)
Situations to monitor:
- Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale and Hassan Whiteside are questionable for the Jazz. Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson are probable, while Joe Ingles has been ruled out.
- Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Monte Morris, Jeff Green and Vlatko Cancar have been ruled out for the Nuggets. Austin Rivers is listed as questionable.
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -1, total: 216.5
Pace: MIA (27th), POR (18th)
Situations to monitor:
- Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Dewayne Dedmon, Marcus Garrett and KZ Okpala have been ruled out for the Heat.
- Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have been ruled out for the Blazers. Larry Nance is listed as questionable.
Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -1, total: 229.5
Pace: ATL (19th), SAC (8th)
Situations to monitor:
- John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Gorgui Dieng and De’Andre Hunter are listed as out for the Hawks. Cam Reddish and Trae Young are listed as questionable.
- Richaun Holmes and Chimezie Metu have been ruled out for the Kings while Terence Davis is listed as questionable.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Wednesday.
Last season with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the court together (202.3 minutes), Durant led the trio with a 29.4% usage rate
Irving trailed Durant with a 23.5% usage rate while Harden took the biggest hit, seeing only an 18.4% usage rate, though he averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute, the highest clip of the three. Harden also saw a 39.8% assist rate, operating as the primary facilitator while Irving and Durant were the offensive catalysts. With so much ambiguity ahead of Irving’s first game on Wednesday, taking a wait-and-see approach may be your best bet with Harden and Durant priced up.
No player has seen more minutes with both Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey off the court this season than Furkan Korkmaz (156.1)
With both guards out, Korkmaz should once again move into the starting lineup and in this scenario, he’s proven to be an asset. In those 156.1 minutes this season, he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.1% usage rate, trailing only Tobias Harris (25.4%) and Joel Embiid (39.2%).
With both CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard off the floor this season, Anfernee Simons has posted a 31.5% usage rate
He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario and is fresh off of a massive 41-point performance last game with these two guards absent. Adding a 22.5% assist rate and averaging 24.77 points and 4.74 assists per-36-minutes in this case, Simons comes in as one of the best lower mid-tier plays on the slate.
NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
For the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.
Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look
The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
- Joel Embiid ($11,200)
- James Harden ($11,100)
- Stephen Curry ($10,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600)
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400)
- James Harden ($11,200)
- Kevin Durant ($11,000)
- Joel Embiid ($10,800)
Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look
- Nikola Jokic (1x)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (1x)
- Joel Embiid (1x)
- Kevin Durant (1x)
- Luka Doncic (1x)
With Wednesday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Tuesday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.
DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from Tuesday’s $400k Fadeaway ($100k to first):
- PG: Keifer Sykes (39.50)
- SG: Devin Booker (50.75)
- SF: RJ Barrett (48.50)
- PF: Kevin Love (36.00)
- C: Jakob Poeltl (40.50)
- G: Malik Monk (41.50)
- F: Mikal Bridges (31.50)
- UTIL: Jarrett Allen (49.50)
Total: 337.75
FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look
Below is the winning lineup from Tuesday’s $20k Tue NBA Shot ($5k to first):
- PG: Darius Garland (45.8)
- PG: De’Aaron Fox (38.6)
- SG: Devonte’ Graham (40.2)
- SG: Malik Monk (39.8)
- SF: OG Anunoby (31.9)
- SF: RJ Barrett (47.1)
- PF: Evan Mobley (33.1)
- PF: Lauri Markkanen (29.7)
- C: Jarrett Allen (51.4)
Total: 357.6
Tuesday’s slate was a mess. Just about all of the chalk were massive misses, as Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, LeBron James and Domantas Sabonis ended with floor games and found themselves absent from the best lineups. Instead, it was the Cleveland Cavaliers who occupied most of the space in the optimals, as the DraftKings winner had both Kevin Love and Jarrett Allen, while the FanDuel winner had four total Cavs in their lineup.
